2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

*ignores Yelich and Realmuto deals* lol

But yes, they've had some success. We certainly haven't drafted/developed anything, that's for sure.

i think they are talking about the last few years. Really, all Kim has done is Arraez i believe. If im not mistaken, the DLC/Yimi trade was the year before she got here i think. Might have been her first year when she wasnt fully in charge though. The Sanchez deal was Jeter and Denbo.

[lou]

I'm not confident either, why would anyone be?

But I can still dream that Sherman has some semblance of competitiveness that will outweigh his penny-pinching. This is the first time this team his been in this situation under his tenure. (Covid season being an outlier, but hey they did bring in Marte that season which was huge) Let's see what they do, we're in the dance right now 2/5 of the way into the season. It's up to Bruce and Kim to do what's necessary to keep us there.

They probably have $30m to spend next year in "new money." So if we just assume they can spend that now, i.e. this is telling Bruce no new money we are just shifting it forward:

E. Diaz adds $8.75m ($2.25m this year, $6m next year)
Grichuk adds $5m (this year)
Corbin adds $47.6m ($12.2m this year, $35.4m next year)
J.D. Davis adds $9m ($2m this year, $7m (arb projection) next year)
=
2023 = $21.45m new money
2024 = $48.4m new money
=
Roughly $70m new money

Garcia subtracts $35m ($6m this year, $12m 2024 and 2025, $5m in 2026)
Scott subtracts $1.4m (this year)
Luzardo subtracts $5.5m (roughly $1.2m this year and $4.25 in 2024) < --- I put him into logterm budget and not Scott for obvious reasons
=
2023 = $8.6m sending out
2024 = $16.25m sending out
2025 = $12m sending out
2025 - $5m sending out
=
Roughly $41.85m in out money

Grand total = $28m new money, or what they can likely afford in 2024 if they match this year's payroll.

This is:

Diaz/Grichuk - Guys outside Marlins top 10 and a few of them
Westburg or Peraza - Luzardo and Scott, and probably getting outside top 10 guys on top of this as well
Corbin - Garcia in a dump, and probably taking back a very low level prospect or two as Marlins absorbing $12m here
JD Davis - This costs Fulton probably but that's OK, he is good and controlled



Effectively this is a pitch to Sherman's cheapness and saying we are going to spend $30m next year, so let's do this *NOW* to *WIN.* So it's not new money and an eye at 2024


This is the same as this year's payroll for 2024, with the only liability a Soler opt-in and he'd have to get hurt and maybe even then he still opts out. And it's not like he makes a lot so that's fine.

Fortes, E. Diaz
Arraez
Westburg/Peraza
Berti, Amaya
Davis, Segura
DLC, ____
Jazz, Edwards
Sanchez

Sandy, Cabrera, Eury, Meyer (Cueto decline)
Rogers, Garrett, Eder, Corbin
Chargois, Brazoban
Puk, Okert, Nardi
(Bender, Hoeing, Maldonado next up)

They'd need an outfielder or to have high level confidence in Burdick. That's it.


And they still have 8 SP here + monteverde in AAA, so is Meyer/Eder turning into a similar outfielder here to add some really major bat impact on top of this for CC prices?



Basically they can do something like that AND afford it. Diaz, Grichuk, Davis, and Corbin collectively have around a 4 WAR right now, and Luzardo/Scott/Cooper/Yuli/Stallings who those guys would effectively replace are around a 1.7 WAR. This is probably adding 2 wins over the season or more (as we add Westburg/Peraza to the above also), and that's ignoring this finds those innings to keep the young arms viable longer and its 4 solid pieces for next year, one of them being the longterm IF.


I totally buy Salvador Perez is a different beast unless they are taking Garcia back at minimum. But they can afford THIS and cue up offseason moves for a young right handed outfielder who can hit LHP. Which I do note, Burdick, Jerar, Cappe, and Berry(S) could all turn into that internally if any figure it out.

[lou]

That would be a fun staff next year TBH:

Sandy rips
Righty Opener, Rogers 2+ times through, Bullpen
Cabrera -- > Eder (try and throw whole game each doing 4+)
Eury 4+ -- > Corbin 1 time through + bullpen
Garrett -- > Meyer (try and throw whole game each doing 4+)

Easy adjustments if someone gets hurt if Monteverde is ready, or just have presumably Garrett take over a day as he is probably good for 150 next year.

[fish16]

That would be a fun staff next year TBH:

Sandy rips
Righty Opener, Rogers 2+ times through, Bullpen
Cabrera -- > Eder (try and throw whole game each doing 4+)
Eury 4+ -- > Corbin 1 time through + bullpen
Garrett -- > Meyer (try and throw whole game each doing 4+)

Easy adjustments if someone gets hurt if Monteverde is ready, or just have presumably Garrett take over a day as he is probably good for 150 next year.

Luzardo and Cabrera shouldnt have super restrictive innings limits next year theoretically, and Eury should be capped at 150 or so so that shouldnt be an issue either. Garrett has also earned his own spot in the rotation with no need for a creative piggy back.

Cabrera threw 110 innings combined last year. This year he is on pace for around 150 which isnt an unheard of jump. Take the training wheels off him next year and let him build up to 180. Same with Luzardo provided they both stay healthy through the end of the year.

If the plan is to cap Eury at 120 this year which is the reported number, he should be fine for the jump to 150. Sandy is good for 200-230 provided he stays healthy.

Next year the only guys you really have to take care of would be whatever Meyer and eder can provide coming off of injuries. Meyer might be the guy you put as the few times a week bridge reliever for a few innings and then build up to an innings limit in 2025 and take the training wheels off of him in 2026.

[fish16]

Really hope we keep playing well and can generate some positive fan feedback for the next few months. They have flown under the radar with the heat and panthers but that should be over tonight so they have a real chance to start getting some people out to the park if they keep playing well and make a splashy addition at the deadline. First real chance for legit crowds since this ownership took over. That ballpark can be really fun and loud when there are crowds out there, and this team has finally played well enough to deserve some people to come out and watch.

[fish16]

Jazz now needs surgery to fix the toe after the season. Will still try to comeback

[lou]

How is the defensive lineup going to look with Jazz needing surgery even if he is cleared? They gotta keep Jazz healthy and DH is difficult with Soler and DLC a pretty poor defensive OF. Is Jazz going to be a base path asset or just completely shut down running? No idea how this works. I'm sure they have a plan, but the skeptical OF defense with DLC and Soler and Sanchez not being able to start against LHP is a liability.

Cue me saying Grichuk again who can be a R/L CF platoon with Sanchez and play against some RHP where they'd at least have 1 solid defender out there at all times.

[fish16]

How is the defensive lineup going to look with Jazz needing surgery even if he is cleared? They gotta keep Jazz healthy and DH is difficult with Soler and DLC a pretty poor defensive OF. Is Jazz going to be a base path asset or just completely shut down running? No idea how this works. I'm sure they have a plan, but the skeptical OF defense with DLC and Soler and Sanchez not being able to start against LHP is a liability.

Cue me saying Grichuk again who can be a R/L CF platoon with Sanchez and play against some RHP where they'd at least have 1 solid defender out there at all times.

he will be fine, just needs surgery after the year to fix the issue entirely. Grichuk has been mediocre for years and has been bad away from Coors. Rather have Xavier edwards out there if they need someone to take Jazz's spot in CF. Edwards should be up with the big club in some capacity. He has been amazing in AAA and impressed when he was up here briefly.

[lou]

What about Ezequiel Duran (Tex) - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ez...stats#fielding. Playing everywhere, for his career an above average SS, solid 3B, and can play some 2B/LF. He’s probably a longterm 3B defensively. FV50 pedigree last year.

Rangers

Heim, Garver —— > Sam Huff (FV45 C)
N. Lowe forever, D. Harris (FV45 backup 1B thumper)
Semien forever, J. Acuna (MLB pipeline thinks # 3 prospect, FG report not out)
Seager forever, J. Smith (FV50 utility infielder already up)
Jung forever
Grossman/Janikowski (this is a need)
L. Tavares —— > Evan Carter (top top top prospect coming)
A. Garcia

They also have a very interesting FV45 hit first player (Foscoe) - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ju...ts?position=2B

They just lost DeGrom remember and are trying to win with Eovaldi, Heaney, M. Perez, J. Gray, and prospect arms. They definitely have good longterm prospect arms but “win now” is important.

Basically, they have -0- need for Duran or Foscoe unless they make one their longterm LF. And Foscoe is barely playable at 2B and is probably more of a 1B/2B/DH type. So would it be just kicking Duran out there. They have a wide assortment of other FV40 guys to tap from also, with a lot a lot of pitching coming where they might have an arm to trade in a year, plus Texas ownership will spend money. Especially if DeGrom was on an insurance policy.

I think it might be worth thinking about Duran + Foscoe as another idea. Hit first guys with years and years of control. Foscoe is hitting .277/.405/.488 (.290 BABIP) with a 14.7% BB / 11.2 % K rate in AAA to mention and Duran has like an .850 OPS this year and looks great.

If Westburg/Peraza aren’t a thing, I think they could easily do Luzardo + Scott for these guys, and maybe recoup some of those FV40 arms as they have a dozen of them. Texas can go find an OF at the deadline to help Grossman and Janikowski and then they’ll look really really good short and longterm. Still do E. Diaz but without Grichuk this time for the Marlins. Maybe Grichuk goes to Texas as that makes sense to replace Duran.

We end up with this, with all the pitchers besides Luzardo and Scott. So they’d need an innings eater for this year, but that can be managed:

2023

Fortes, E. Diaz
Arraez, Foscoe
Segura, Berti
Wendle
Duran
DLC, Soler
Jazz
Sanchez
13th - Yuli/Cooper/Garcia/Davis/Amaya/Edwards

2024

Fortes, E. Diaz
Arraez, Foscoe
Segura, Berti
Amaya
Duran
DLC, _____
Jazz, Edwards
Sanchez

A lot of positional flexibility with the infielders to make it work. At least 3 guys can play SS here. Need a lefty hitting OF again.


So it's a question of how good is Duran really and is Foscoe going to hit enough to be less defensive early career Dan Murphy/Jeff McNeil kind of hitter. I like the idea of trying to turn a SP arm into 2 longterm bats and this seems like a real potential here as Texas NEEDS that arm IMO.

[fish16]

guys, i hate to burst your bubble with these outside the box multitude of moves, but they arent subtracting from the major league roster at the deadline. They will go get a C like Yan Gomes, maybe they find a SS for prospects, add a righty reliever, and be done. They have the prospects to find some pieces. They wont be and shouldnt be dealing from the major league roster to make additions. They arent doing these creative 2-3 related deal scenarios.

[lou]

Fulton out the season but should be ready spring training. Not a tommy john but still a very bad injury and his second major one.

Basically not a trade option and maybe he is an August 2024 option if all goes right. At least it's not an out all of 2024 injury and he can throw in AAA next year.

[Lee Stone]

I'm watching Dane Myers, a 27-year-old who was picked off waivers last winter. He's kind of the system's best overall hitter and recently moved from Pensacola to JAX. Marlins have him playing third. Who knows?

I'd also like to see X Edwards back with the team.

[fish16]

Brazoban optioned, Archie Bradley called up. Rogers to the 60 man

[Namaste]

Has their ever been a starter on the Marlins who is as bad as Cabrera is on the road ?

[Nick]

Sobering reality check this series has been so far.