2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

breaking my own rule here because this would never happen, but given cooper's ineffectiveness this year, would we be worse from the deadline on if we move Arraez to 1b, Edwards takes over 2b full time, Jazz comes back, and we deal cooper and wendle at the deadline (there will surely be teams who would take those guys) and acquire Anderson for SS, Knizner or Grandal for C, and Gallegos for the set up role? That's not taking on a huge amount of payroll, nothing after next year, and makes us a better team

Could trot out a lineup of

Arraez- 1b
Anderson- SS
Jazz- CF
Soler- DH
Sanchez- RF
DLC- LF
Grandal- C
Segura- 3b
Edwards- 2b (end of lineup leadoff type guy)

Bench- Berti, Fortes, Gurriel, Burdick/Hampson
SP- Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, and then 5th spot between Eury's innings limit, and Cueto and Rogers as the backup plans
RP- Puk, Gallegos, Nardi, Okert, Scott, Floro, Barnes, Chargois
With Eury eventually becoming another bullpen weapon

What would that cost prospect wise?

[Nick]

Hope you enjoy AAA Eury. Don’t hold this against us when we try to re-sign you or anything.

[sports24/7]

Eury is the Marlins’ best pitcher right now. If they send him down because of service time, I don’t see how you can expect anyone to believe that contending is your top priority.

[Namaste]

He’s getting sent down, boys.

Can we please hang on to this 2-0 lead?

[lou]

Eury is the Marlins’ best pitcher right now. If they send him down because of service time, I don’t see how you can expect anyone to believe that contending is your top priority.

I don't think this is the right analysis. Already mentioned this, but he probably should be throwing 110-120 IP overall this year (which leaves a light reserve for a playoff run). He's at 66 right now after this last start.

On a big picture level, he probably has twelve or thirteen 4 inning appearances left this season which we can do the math gets to that rough range. Throwing him more innings is just going to decrease the appearances there or get him shut down in September. There are 18 more runs through the rotation. So they need to skip him as-is right now 5 or 6 times.

They can't really just completely shut down his arm for a month (so I think???), or just let him rip and call it a day in September and not have him for a playoff series (the worst idea if they are contending???). So I do think a smart move would be to probably send him down for three separate 10+ day periods to effectively "skip" a start or two and then use your 6 man rotation to go through two cycles. And then Eury pops back for a few starts and do it again.


Something like this maybe

Down 2 cycles right now missing 2 turns through

3 starts (he gets Boston, STL, and Philly the day before ASB) - 12 innings

Down for ASB and 2 cycles through, coming back up for...

4 starts (he starts Detroit series 7/28 weekend, then get Philly, Cincy, and Hou) - 16 innings

Down for 2 cycles

Called back September 1st (roster expansion) and this ends. He gets five 4 inning appearances in September with..... 20 innings......

114 innings thrown with some limited playoff innings inventory left.


Not going to lie, there is a service time consideration here as this knocks him out of a Super2 probably also as I'm generously using the ASB break here and then punting to roster expansions. But they have to do this for the innings, and also he looks so good at this age a buyout is likely coming fast (right?) so the super2 status may not matter as much.



We can hate this because Eury is good, BUT this makes sense because they can't just churn him hard right now. He'll be done mid-August. I do think the innings are more important than the time, and I'd say sending him down does mean they believe they can play in October as a counterpoint for these reasons above. This saves the guy for contending.

[lou]

Can we please hang on to this 2-0 lead?

Waking up to grand slam robbing defense is one way to do it

[lou]

I’ve always loved Sanchez’s potential. That being said this not the first time he’s gone on a hot streak. Hopefully he can maintain, which he’s never been able to do at the big league level. I’m cautiously optimistic, but not 100% sold.

I'm pretty sold on both of them being fine third/platoon outfielder floors, and this is why. The bar is low in current baseball:

2022 overall stats:

61st Top OF OPS, minimum 250 PA - .719 (A. Hayes)
61st Top OF OPS vs RHP, minimum 120 PA - .735 (J. Lowe/Azorena)
61st Top OF OPS vs LHP, minimum 90 PA LHP - .741 (O. Cabrera)

I'm using those numbers to have a soft line in the sand regarding are you a good third outfielder or not.


DLC
Career .756 OPS
Career RHP - .776
Career LHP - 708
--
2023 - .774 OPS
2023 RHP - .768
2023 LHP - .810


Sanchez
Career .737 OPS
Career RHP - .774
Career LHP - 599
--
2023 RHP - .830


Effectively here, DLC's career slash gets him into the low 30s of overall OF bat production and with what he is going this year, that scales up into the low 20s in offense(!). Basically, he can have a big drop off and still be a suitable third OF as if I scale those numbers to who is a top 80th something OF in baseball, it's in the .680s for OPS. Even with bad defense and base running, that's a "good" third OF and that's a 100 OPS drop pretty much which I would be heavily against. DLC is a real solid starter with upside to be a top 40 OF if he really hits and improves even modestly defensively. Maybe Jazz would help there if he can help him over a few steps.

Sanchez right now is hitting like a top 20 OF vs RHP but if his career RHP are more probable, top 40. He can play some defense (I MEAN RIGHT!!!!!!!) and isn't as bad on the base paths as DLC even if he isn't good, so Sanchez is probably a floor really really solid 2nd OF versus RHP and a real plus OF starter. Of course, he needs a platoon partner very badly.


Maybe this falls apart for the guys, but that FG article suggests they have made adjustments and this looks pretty real even if they are over achieving a little right now. These guys are pretty good. It's important to look across baseball and realize a mid 700 OPS is pretty damn solid these days with the reliever waves destroying everyone.



And this is where I mention:

Burdick vs LHP
Career MLB - 40 PA .225/.311/.425 (.736)
AAA 2023 - 51 PA .250/.353/.500 (.853)
JAX 2022 - 141 PA. .270/.378/.492 (.870)
PENSACOLA 2021 - 95 PA. .225/.354/.513 (.867)

Burdick at a .750+ LHP / .625+ RHP split at the MLB level with better than DLC defense is a very very solid 4th OF overall and a literal perfect match for Sanchez. That's an asset against LHP if we're talking about that being floor solid 3rd OF production right there. They might be in even more business than we think they are in the OF if they can turn Burdick into that.


And I won't post the stats, but Jazz obliterating RHP and X. Edwards slap hitting a .700 OPS with a small spike against LHP (doing much better in AAA this year) and playing solid defense with the base running in CF as the 5th OF really really could round out this core in a year. With a nice defensive replacement in AAA with Mesa Jr. coming after them.

[Nick]

I don't think this is the right analysis. Already mentioned this, but he probably should be throwing 110-120 IP overall this year (which leaves a light reserve for a playoff run). He's at 66 right now after this last start.

On a big picture level, he probably has twelve or thirteen 4 inning appearances left this season which we can do the math gets to that rough range. Throwing him more innings is just going to decrease the appearances there or get him shut down in September. There are 18 more runs through the rotation. So they need to skip him as-is right now 5 or 6 times.

They can't really just completely shut down his arm for a month (so I think???), or just let him rip and call it a day in September and not have him for a playoff series (the worst idea if they are contending???). So I do think a smart move would be to probably send him down for three separate 10+ day periods to effectively "skip" a start or two and then use your 6 man rotation to go through two cycles. And then Eury pops back for a few starts and do it again.


Something like this maybe

Down 2 cycles right now missing 2 turns through

3 starts (he gets Boston, STL, and Philly the day before ASB) - 12 innings

Down for ASB and 2 cycles through, coming back up for...

4 starts (he starts Detroit series 7/28 weekend, then get Philly, Cincy, and Hou) - 16 innings

Down for 2 cycles

Called back September 1st (roster expansion) and this ends. He gets five 4 inning appearances in September with..... 20 innings......

114 innings thrown with some limited playoff innings inventory left.


Not going to lie, there is a service time consideration here as this knocks him out of a Super2 probably also as I'm generously using the ASB break here and then punting to roster expansions. But they have to do this for the innings, and also he looks so good at this age a buyout is likely coming fast (right?) so the super2 status may not matter as much.



We can hate this because Eury is good, BUT this makes sense because they can't just churn him hard right now. He'll be done mid-August. I do think the innings are more important than the time, and I'd say sending him down does mean they believe they can play in October as a counterpoint for these reasons above. This saves the guy for contending.

We all know the reasons Eury needs to be sent down. Youve broken it down about a thousand times.

But let’s step into Eury’s shoes right now. You just threw 6 scoreless innings. Your ERA is 1.80, how do you think you’ll take the news that you’re getting sent down so that your big free agency pay day can be moved back a year. Personally that’s something I may hold a grudge over, but that’s just me, maybe Eury is a little more understanding.

[lou]

We all know the reasons Eury needs to be sent down. Youve broken it down about a thousand times.

But let’s step into Eury’s shoes right now. You just threw 6 scoreless innings. Your ERA is 1.80, how do you think you’ll take the news that you’re getting sent down so that your big free agency pay day can be moved back a year. Personally that’s something I may hold a grudge over, but that’s just me, maybe Eury is a little more understanding.

I would say "we want you to pitch in October and not be shut down in August." I think that is a pretty strong pitch that he will understand.

And then you tell his agent "We see the Hunter Greene buyout and will be in touch" - https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/cincinna...48%2C833%2C333.


So I'm with you, but they can't possibly low ball him for 2 years and get to arbitration. Even in this small sample size, you got to jump into that "Greene" pool here and do the deal as he is in fact as advertised and is looking like a generational talent. I think he has joined Arraez and Luzardo for me to sign today to extensions, and Jazz I just want to see some health but he is right there if he gets through his issues.

[Erick]

We have a problem at 3B. Segura can’t be playing every day. He is atrocious unless it’s the 9th inning because this year is weird like that.

[Nick]

We have a problem at 3B. Segura can’t be playing every day. He is atrocious unless it’s the 9th inning because this year is weird like that.

I do wonder if our team would be better if Amaya and Edwards were getting the PT that Segura and Cooper are currently getting.

[lou]

I do wonder if our team would be better if Amaya and Edwards were getting the PT that Segura and Cooper are currently getting.

Cooper is doing some solid work vs LHP (.870 OPS) and has picked it up a little in June FWIW. I like him just starting against LHP. SSS yes, but he does have career track record he will hit lefties when healthy. Segura - and Yuli (.568 June) - are terrible. I won't go into the diatribe about how bad Yuli's analytics are but he is a replacement level player that should be replaced.

It's a catcher who can hit righties a bit, play anywhere infielder who can hit lefties and righties a little, and an outfielder that can hit lefties for me. I suppose Amaya/Edwards and Edwards/Garcia/Burdick/Davis could be those solutions, but it would be nice to see them really go for it. But if Amaya and any of those other guys can OPS even .725 against LHP and play solid defense, they kind of don't need anyone besides a monstrous catcher upgrade. That would be so awesome to not liquidate pitching if they can get these platoon advantages internally.

Perfect world, call it Cooper, Garcia, and Amaya hit LHP enough:

vs R
New Catcher sometimes Fortes
Arraez sometimes Cooper
Segura sometimes Arraez
Wendle sometimes Amaya
Berti sometimes Wendle
DLC
Jazz
Sanchez
Soler
B - C, Garcia, two of Cooper/Amaya/Segura/Berti on rotation

vs L
Fortes
Cooper
Arraez
Amaya
Segura sometimes Berti
Berti sometimes DLC
DLC sometimes Jazz
Garcia
Soler
B - C, Wendle, Sanchez, one of Segura/Berti/DLC/Jazz

Obvious areas for improvement if they want to wow us replacing Cooper, Amaya, or Garcia there. We're stuck with Segura on the bench for sure.

[fish16]

that catch by sanchez last night was unbelievable. especially in that moment

[fish16]

xavier edwards should not only be up here at this point, he should be getting regular AB's. His season thus far in AAA is nuts. Very Arraez-ish. He's hitting .338, 20 walks to only 11 k's in 156 PA's. .843 OPS, 10/11 SB's.

[fish16]

Also, dont look now, but will banfield is having a not terrible year at the plate. .741 OPS with 8 hr's already in 46 games. Does not walk whatsoever and k's a lot though. 45/4 K/BB ratio. Progress at least