2023 Game Thread

[Nick]

doesnt make it good though. That's still a bad catcher. Just go get an actual legitimate guy who can help the team and take over the catcher position entirely like Grandal. Don't half ass an upgrade, take on 6 million next year that could be put to better use, and give up a decent prospect most likely.

I don't know, I feel like if we got Grandal I'd still want Fortes playing at least half the time.

[fish16]

I don't know, I feel like if we got Grandal I'd still want Fortes playing at least half the time.

idk about half the time, but it would be close to even with slightly more to Grandal in my opinion. Maybe 60/40 or 65/35. Fortes hasnt exactly broken the door down to deserve a ton of playing time so far this year. Grandal is the proven commodity and he gets on base because he draws a lot of walks in his career and he has legitimate power.

[Nick]

Fortes is creeping up on what would be the equivalent of a full season of ABs for a catcher, and he's got a .700 OPS with .264 BABIP. That's above average numbers for a major league starting catcher.

[fish16]

Fortes is creeping up on what would be the equivalent of a full season of ABs for a catcher, and he's got a .700 OPS with .264 BABIP. That's above average numbers for a major league starting catcher.

I'm fine with him moving forward as an option for the next few years and he is certainly passable, but he has been flatly bad offensively this year, and if we are going for it, we could use a huge upgrade over stallings and move fortes back into the backup role where he gets 2 starts a week and is an option off the bench and maybe as a dh every once and a while. It's about this year to me given that we appear to be pretty decent and have put ourselves in a chance to make the playoffs. fuck the prospects, go get an upgrade at Catcher and SS and go for it.

[Lee Stone]

he would be a terrible addition. he is not good. He is in colorado. For his career in over 1800 AB's, he has a .1 WAR. This year his numbers are all from Colorado. He has a 1.042 OPS at home and a .620 OPS on the road in the same number of AB's. He doesnt have power, he is a career .392 slugging percentage, helped tremendously by this years inflated .470 slugging percentage due to Coors field. .634 slugging percentage at home, .300 slugging percentage on the road. Guys dont go from being thoroughly mediocre for 7 years to being good players at age 32. He is benefitting from the ballpark. He's also flatly average defensively. He would be a waste of money and a prospect. Even with this years inflated numbers, he has a career WRC+ of 80, and an OPS+ of 83. Go get a proven guy like Grandal.

Also, stop using that website. It's absurdly bad.

All of Diaz' teammates play half their games at Coors Field as well, and he's been the team's very best hitter overall. (As I recall, he batted cleanup in all four games of the Marlins series and went like 7-15 with two homers.) Frankly, what Diaz is doing in 2023 is more significant to me than all his prior history combined. By the way, add Fortes 9% CS to Stallings' 7% and the answer is really shitty.

On Grandal: He's WAY more expensive and far below average defensively. He has a -.1 OPS+ vs. 2.2 for Diaz this season. Now, are we supposed to pretend that Grandal is the better hitter now because he used to be?

[fish16]

All of Diaz' teammates play half their games at Coors Field as well, and he's been the team's very best hitter overall. Frankly, what Diaz is doing in 2023 is more significant to me than all his prior history combined. By the way, add Fortes 9% CS to Stallings' 7% and the answer is really shitty.

Ya, almost all of his teammates perform better at home. They have an .803 team OPS at home. on the road as a team they are at .646. .803 OPS as a team would be 2nd in baseball. .646 would be 2nd worst in baseball. Literally every one of their best hitters has crazy home splits. Grichuk has a 1.043 OPS at home, .692 on the road. Ryan mcmahon has a .947 OPS at home, .715 on the road. Blackmon has an .881 at home, .706 on the road. Kris bryant has been dealing with injuries but he has a .747 OPS at home, .693 on the road. Jurickson profar is .821 at home, .605 on the road. ezekial tovar is .709 at home, .660 on the road.

Literally every single one of their players is better at home, because again, they have the best hitting park in baseball, and those arent legitimate numbers when they come in that ballpark.

Of course what diaz has done in 2023 in 2 months of play is more significant to you than all his 7 year prior history combined, because you have 0 perspective on anything.

[lou]

All of Diaz' teammates play half their games at Coors Field as well, and he's been the team's very best hitter overall. (As I recall, he batted cleanup in all four games of the Marlins series and went like 7-15 with two homers.) Frankly, what Diaz is doing in 2023 is more significant to me than all his prior history combined. By the way, add Fortes 9% CS to Stallings' 7% and the answer is really shitty.

On Grandal: He's WAY more expensive and far below average defensively. He has a -.1 OPS+ vs. 2.2 for Diaz this season. Now, are we supposed to pretend that Grandal is the better hitter now because he used to be?

I'm with you on this one Lee. Grandal has the worst pop time in the league and isn't framing anymore. Diaz isn't that great defensively by any means, but he at least controls the base paths a little. Grandal is 9/56 in throwing guys out and Diaz 12/37. These are huge differences obviously. The Marlins do need this as Fortes is bad here even if a plus framer and can hit a little.

Diaz has a .700+ OPS vs RHP pitching the last 3 years and looks good right now. He has been good in waves (2018, 2021, 2023), his career OPS is effectively .700, and given what is out there IMO (I think Diaz, Grandal, Delay, and Knizner are most likely catchers to be traded), I would pick Diaz. I'm not expecting the offense, but I think a high .600 OPS vs RHP and good enough defense is very probable. I'd be fine taking a spin on any of the price is right, including Grandal and take the offense for the defense, but yes he is expensive so that one is tough. Diaz seems like a good match for Fortes with what he is doing. A guy that can hit righties a little and isn't a tree stump defensively. Frankly, Fortes would still start 60% of the time with Diaz (or Knizer or Delay) to me. He gets all lefties (Fortes is up to a .787 career OPS vs LHP), and a righty timeshare to get him rest.

To mention, Grandal is basically an .875 OPS vs LHP / .725 OPS vs RHP his last three seasons. So would they DH Grandal against lefties and kick Soler to the OF? As you'd have to play Grandal and Fortes always with those numbers. I'm not a no, but there just seem like better ideas and to take a leap of faith you get 2018/2021 Diaz or bet on Knizner late blooming. Cardinals do make sense as their whole infield (Dejong, Edman, Donovan) would be helpful and maybe O'Neil, Carlson, or Burleson get added to that for some serious 1 stop shopping.

[Lee Stone]

You reinforce my point perfectly, fishy16. You listed some pretty good players that make a ton of money in Blackmon and Bryant. You'd love to have either one in the catcher position if only they had the skills to play it. Well, Diaz does have those skills, and at this point in time, is a better hitter than those other guys while playing in the same ballparks, versus the same pitching, and using the same balls.

[lou]

With regard to recent trade ideas here, veteran catcher Elias Diaz from Colorado works for me. Excellent bat this season and 32% on caught stealing rate, far better than Stallings measly 7%. He's at $5.5m this year and $6 next year and done, perfect for a 33 year old catcher. He has power and is not a prolific whiffer. No reason for Colorado NOT to trade him.

I like a Westburg acquisition from Orioles. He could be the Marlin third baseman for the next five years. His value on baseball trade site is $18m. Braxton Garrett is at about $23m. Close enough for me. (Just for thought, they list Luzardo at around $27m and Rogers at $33m)

In no world is Rogers more valuable than Luzardo. Not sure what your trade values website is thinking there.

I think Luzardo would get him, or Rogers with relievers + throw ins, but Garrett seems like a guy who will always be more valuable to the Marlins as who is paying 100% on the dollar for a soft tossing lefty.

I think something like Luzardo/Rogers, Eder, and Scott for Westburg and Kjerstad makes a lot of sense all around. They have a lot of lefties hurt/AAA, but that would really be super charging their longterm lefty view and Baltimore can spend big money on a right handed arm in FA next year.

They wouldn't even miss those guys with Aldy, Mountcastle, Ortiz/Urias (Norby), Mateo (Holliday), Gunnar, Hays (Beavers), Mullins (Cowser), and Santandar (Mayo). It's the opposite of the Marlins. They need to trade two bats for two arms. So let's get them two arms and longterm Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Rogers, Garrett, Meyer, Fulton, and Monteverde is pretty damn good + FA money as Fortes, Arraez, Westburg, Kjerstad, Jazz, DLC, and Sanchez, with Amaya and Edwards, and Cappe, Watson, Mesa Jr., Nasim, Mack, and Berry on the way, looks like a full cohesive internal unit with the team having money to spend and not needing relievers depending on what everyone does.

Basically, Westburg is perfect and they have other sticks that can help whether that is Kjerstad, Mayo, Norby, Beavers, Cowser, Oritz, Urias. Whoever.

[fish16]

If those are the options and grandal is too pricey, knizner would be my pick then. He's better than Diaz, and he has 2 more years after this year of team control. I think spending 6 million on a catcher who isnt very good next year and will undoubtedly put up mediocre numbers in this ballpark is stupid. Reinvest that somewhere else (bullpen, SP depth, platoon guy somewhere, etc). Knizner is probably somewhere around 3 next year then 1 more arbitration year the year following which you can reevaluate at that point whether you tender him, trade him, or just let him go. That puts you theoretically to when mack might be ready.

I just have seen this diaz shit before. We trade for a guy coming off the best year of their career in an ideal situation after a bad track record throughout their career and then they come here and revert back to what they were. If Diaz could continue what he is doing or at least anything close to it when he gets here, that would be one thing, but he will not. He just isnt that player. And he didnt just become that player in the offseason, he is playing at Coors.

[fish16]

You reinforce my point perfectly, fishy16. You listed some pretty good players that make a ton of money in Blackmon and Bryant. You'd love to have either one in the catcher position if only they had the skills to play it. Well, Diaz does have those skills, and at this point in time, is a better hitter than those other guys.

The rockies stink. There is a reason they have the 4th worst run differential in baseball and 5th worst record in baseball. Blackmon is 36 and Bryant has been hurt on and off for 2 years. making a ton of money does not necessarily mean the players are currently good players.

Blackmon is not that good. He has had the benefit of playing in coors to make his numbers overall look good. For his career, he has an OPS of .946 at home and .734 on the road. He is one in a long line of guys who have made huge amounts of money playing in coors field and putting up inflated numbers. In this magical scenario where you just transport a players numbers from their current situation, sure, bring Diaz on. That's not reality, and you're going to end up overpaying and committing 6 million next year to a backup catcher. You didnt know who the guy was 2 months ago, and you're acting as if the last 2 months of inflated coors field numbers is who the guy has been his entire career when he had a -1.1 WAR over 487 games coming into this year. He is a bad backup catcher.

[fish16]

Just look at the rockies pitchers splits as well. As a team they have a 5.87 ERA and 1.63 WHIP at home. On the road its 4.54 and 1.37 WHIP. Putting any stock in numbers inflated by coors field is idiotic, especially for guys who have a track record of below average replacement level numbers over their entire career. It's the altitude, not the player.

[lou]

Also, the Royals apparently want to shed salary - https://theathletic.com/4587934/2023...ros-guardians/

Not sure if someone posted this, but it is in referencing to attaching a bad contract to Chapman.


The Royals big money deals are this (2023 and beyond money, not apportioning to partial seasons)

Perez $60m
Lyles $17
Greinke $8.5
Keller $5.75
Barlow $5.3 (controlled next year arb3)
Chapman $3.75
N. Lopez $3.7 (controlled arb 3 and 4 next year, a super 2)

Garcia is $41m
Barnes roughly $4.75m
Cooper $4.2
Stallings $3.3
=$53m


Maybe you pitch something like this as a variation of Nick's idea:

Perez, Lyles, Greinke ($85.5m)

Garcia, Barnes Cooper, Stallings ($53m) and Fulton/Monteverde, Mack, Miller/Millbrandt, N. Nunez, and Sixto/I. Lewis

They'd have time to rehab the Marlins guys to maybe send out at the deadline, save themselves a ton of cash to hit FA hard, and not get world beater prospects, but those first 4 guys are probably system prospects 6-20 for the Royals and probably get their # 5 SP or better. Maybe I'm wrong and a much better prospect is needed, but that is a lot of money to clear out for deadweight and really old C/SP even if KC legends.



Would Bruce flex absorbing some real money for effectively Perez and stretch run of Greinke? Lyles is a DFA.

Greinke opens up doing that Luzardo/Rogers, Eder, and Scott trade for Westburg and good Orioles bat prospect, etc.

Perez, Fortes
Arraez
Westburg
Wendle, Berti
Segura
DLC, Kjerstad
Jazz
Sanchez, Soler
13th - Yuli fights off J. Davis, Burdick, Hampson, Amaya, and others for a guy who hits lefties, or a trade for another bat. They'd have a SP still to move here. Tim Anderson?

Sandy, Greinke, Rogers, Cabrera, Eury, Garrett, Cueto
Floro, Chargois, Brazoban
Puk, Okert, Nardi


That team is nuts, and especially if they trade for another major bat with Rogers or Garrett. Maybe the White Sox would send Tim Anderson and Lynn, and pay for Lynn, etc., in a 2-1. I've basically just traded every lefty off the team which is probably not smart, but I mean that lineup though if you swap in Anderson and Lynn for Yuli and Rogers/Garrett there.

[Lee Stone]

Gotta feelin that Fulton could be out for a long time. Hopefully not another TJS.

[Nick]

I brought up Perez about a month ago and it was mentioned he had a full no-trade clause, and I checked and that is the case. So that might be an obstacle.