2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

I'm not sure how he has a future here unless they fall out and just stick with him to see what happens till the end. But their cheapness never ceases to amaze me even for my low expectations.

they arent eating 36 million. He will be here one way or another through the end of that contract, or at least until the last year of it.

[lou]

Only through 7, but Garrett is getting a huge amount of swings and misses. He gave up the runs, but he's really been dominant. Whatever they have done with him is amazing and huge good omens for the future. Great job pulling him at an appropriate time.

J. Sanchez, Cooper, J. Davis, and DLC twice all have had high probability outs. They should have a few more hits just from those 5 batted balls.

Fortes has really turned it around. His OPS is up 150 points in his last 12 starts over 20 days.

Davis has been a real replacement player boost.



I'm not used to so many encouraging things at once. Please get these guys a catcher upgrade over Stallings and an infielder who can defend at 2B/SS/3B and hit lefties. Thanks Kim. It is time to do your job for real.

[fish16]

5 games over and jazz has barely played. Arraez is ridiculous. Keep it going. Next 5 are critical. Get 4 and we are in a really good spot.

[Lee Stone]

Here is the Luis Arraez stat i saw earlier. In his first 444 career games, he is hitting .324, .383 OBP, .419 slugging, .802 OPS, 237 runs, 524 hites, 15 hr's, 159 RBI, 156 BB.
Tony Gwynn's first 444 career games- .324, .374 OBP, .411 slugging, .784 OPS, 234 runs, 546 hits, 12 hr's, 166 rbi, 136 BB.

Unbelievably close.

Can't get any closer than that. Arraez has proven to be an asset thus far.

[fish16]

credit to DLC he has absolutely proven me wrong so far this year. He has been really solid. If he can keep this up that's a really good piece they found moving forward for pretty much nothing. Obviously Arraez has been tremendous as has Soler, but he and Sanchez have been the best stories so far. I didnt really believe in DLC obviously but i always thought Sanchez was a piece if he could put it together and he seems to be doing so thus far. Now go get Tim anderson and Grandal and we are a playoff team.

[fish16]

through 61 games, we are 5th in BA, 15th in OBP, 19th in slugging, 16th in OPS, 10th fewest k's, 23rd in HR's, 27th most walks. So we could use a little more slugging (jazz being healthy helps that) and could use more walks. I know a SS in Chicago who slugs and a C who walks a ton. Get it done Kim. Go for it, this team is good.

[fish16]

always a good sign when your top 3 AB leaders are all OPS'ing above .800. Soler is at .859, Arraez .945 (which i nuts with only 1 HR), and DLC at .815. Unfortunately, we have to get the next guys after them going because 4th you have Segura at .477, Berti at .670 (which is fine for what he brings), and Cooper at .672. Cooper getting it going would be super helpful and you can't help but think Segura cant possibly be this bad the entire year right? The one thing I said about him coming into the year is that he is not spectacular but he is consistent. coming into this year he had been between a .723 OPS and an .867 OPS for 7 straight years. and now he is at .477 despite having good hard hit peripherals? Can't possibly continue, but it's the marlins so it might.

It's just so weird. He has a terrible BABIP but also some of the best hard hit numbers of his career.According to statcast, he has average exit velocity of 87.2 MPH this year. He has been between 87.2 and 88.2. every year since 2017. He is just not barreling up balls at all. He is at 2% this year when he was at 4.4% last year. No idea what adjustments he might have made since last year but whatever he did is not allowing him to drive balls. It's not like the K% and BB% are out of his norms. It's right in line with what he has done his entire career.

I guess you have to just hope he makes an adjustment and the luck turns because he is not a bad player.

[Namaste]

Marlins 43.4% to make playoffs at Fangraphs

Pirates (who have a better Win% than us) are at 25.2%

[lou]

Can't get any closer than that. Arraez has proven to be an asset thus far.

Yea and remember when we all said sign him in March. That price is going up if he is going to hit .400. Hopefully it doesn't end up as a critical mistake and they get the guy a legitimate 5 year extension today. Salas isn't doing great also to note, but still got a solid prospect write up longterm, so that is stinging much less than the on paper trade they made which we both thought was the slight overpay with the inclusion of Salas or 2nd prospect (who was upgraded to a FV40 too). All and all, this made sense which is all we can ask. Him batting .400 is a bonus.

He's pacing as one of the worst defensive 2B in baseball with -10 outs below average right now. His offense is so off the charts it is probably (definetely) worth it just to keep him there just because he will contribute offensively more than he loses out there + a more offensive minded 1B who would smoke a defender 2B. Guys like Ketel, McMahon, and Estrada are top 4-8 offensive options at 2B in baseball with low .800 OPS scores and Arraez is 125-150 points above them.

I think there is an interesting question brewing of at what level does it make sense to move him to 1B (where he'd be an average hitter and plus defender). He should probably be a 1B if he is closer to his career lower .800 OPS like his career as the defenders (and base runners as he sucks at that too right now) will chip into his value. But this gets interesting if he is going to pace as an .875 OPS bat as the sheer offense may outweigh the defense. I mention because its very hard to value this guy as an extension, as he may be a slightly above average untraditional 1B, or supreme bat heavy 2B. With a troublesome floor as there is no power or defense so what if he just stars slap hitting a .780 OPS in 2 years, which he might. I think the Marlins have to hedge between these probabilities.

I was thinking something 5/$65-70m may be appropriate before the year (which included this year), but if we're prospectively looking forward now where batting champ accolades smoke Marlins in arbitration plus some of these other crazy extensions, I think we're looking at 5/$85-90m for Arraez age 27-31 seasons. Maybe $100 (or 106.75m as that is what Bryan Reynolds got) is the magic number and that's a 6-7 year deal with maybe a 7th or 8th year club option. So worth slightly more than Reynolds with a year less of control to be respectful of Arraez higher arbitration + he can maybe stay at 2B awhile.

Time to plant the flag here and then monitor Jazz, Luzardo, Cabrera, Eury, and Puk for extension talks.

But go get Tim Anderson to replace Hampson and someone like E. Diaz/Knizner/Delay now to replace Stallings and reassess in July for another bat. I think signing Arraez would be a motivation boost for the team also that the FO has their back. Culture and vibes matter which Kim hasn't gotten yet.

[lou]

Marlins 43.4% to make playoffs at Fangraphs

Pirates (who have a better Win% than us) are at 25.2%

They don't have the pitching, they are going to fall out soon absent many moves + Endy Rodriguez/Henry Davis coming up like Aldy and Julio. And Hayes channeling his inner DLC and matching the statcast, etc.

Marlins have a chance if every arm is healthy. The Mets and Padres will eventually turn it on (right?) so this may become a Miami-Arizona battle for the last wild card as I feel pretty good about the Braves, Brewers, and Dodgers winning the divisions by the end. The good news I think for the analytics percentages (and bad luck) are the Phillies are not great (as well as the Cardinals) which is the occurences the Marlins needed. I would take Miami over Arizona unless they go get 2 SP (and they have the juice for it), and that's assuming Kim does pull the trigger on some larger bat, a backup catcher upgrade, and likely a third upgrade somewhere of Yuli/Cooper/Garcia actually gets their shit together and paces as a 2+ WAR player (throw in the magic of J. Davis too if he holds up).

This is teetering into best case scenario territory and they should really look at their schedule next 5 weeks compared to what's coming in August and pad the W/L as much as possible. They need to go get someone ASAP.

[fish16]

Marlins 43.4% to make playoffs at Fangraphs

Pirates (who have a better Win% than us) are at 25.2%

that makes sense. they are doing it with smoke and mirrors even moreso than we are. Their hitting isnt special and their pitching outside of Keller is pretty bad.

[fish16]

They don't have the pitching, they are going to fall out soon absent many moves + Endy Rodriguez/Henry Davis coming up like Aldy and Julio. And Hayes channeling his inner DLC and matching the statcast, etc.

Marlins have a chance if every arm is healthy. The Mets and Padres will eventually turn it on (right?) so this may become a Miami-Arizona battle for the last wild card as I feel pretty good about the Braves, Brewers, and Dodgers winning the divisions by the end. The good news I think for the analytics percentages (and bad luck) are the Phillies are not great (as well as the Cardinals) which is the occurences the Marlins needed. I would take Miami over Arizona unless they go get 2 SP (and they have the juice for it), and that's assuming Kim does pull the trigger on some larger bat, a backup catcher upgrade, and likely a third upgrade somewhere of Yuli/Cooper/Garcia actually gets their shit together and paces as a 2+ WAR player (throw in the magic of J. Davis too if he holds up).

This is teetering into best case scenario territory and they should really look at their schedule next 5 weeks compared to what's coming in August and pad the W/L as much as possible. They need to go get someone ASAP.

id be interested to see where we stack up with the diamondbacks by the end of the year. Their lineup is really good, but their pitching outside of the top 2 great guys at the front of the rotation is pretty bad. They are a team who i could see being a title contender next year if they sign or trade for 1 more top of the rotation pitcher because Zac Gallen is fucking incredible and merill kelly has been great too. Maybe they do it at the deadline, but im not sure who is even going to be available yet.

It's a lot harder to figure out who will sell at the deadline when there are 3 wild card spots now. Everyone is theoretically in it even though it would be smarter to sell for most teams .

[Nick]

Would the White Sox consider something like:

To MIA: Tim Anderson and Lance Lynn

To CWS: Avisail Garcia, Dax Fulton and Javier Sanoja

Basically White Sox take on about an additional $19 million in Garcia. (Only an additional $6 million if you assume they would exercise Anderson's Option next year) to get two good prospects in Fulton and Sanoja. Marlins get a 2nd Cueto in Lynn who possibly makes it easier to move another one of their arms before the deadline. Lynn's off the books after next year.

[fish16]

while the rotation has been a little disappointing in some places, i feel really comfortable with them the rest of the year after looking at their XFIP. Maybe we just continue to get unlucky but each guy's ERA is higher than their XFIP. Sandy's ERA is 5.07 and the XFIP is 4.22. Luzardo's ERA is 4.05 to a 3.85 XFIP. Cabrera ERA is 4.5 with an XFIP of 3.83. Garrett ERA is 4.47 with an XFIP of 3.22!!

Eury is the only one with a higher XFIP, but he will continue to develop and i think get even better. He is going to be an absolute stud moving forward. We are in a really good spot, just go get a SS and C and make a run please.

[fish16]

Would the White Sox consider something like:

To MIA: Tim Anderson and Lance Lynn

To CWS: Avisail Garcia, Dax Fulton and Javier Sanoja

Basically White Sox take on about an additional $19 million in Garcia. (Only an additional $6 million if you assume they would exercise Anderson's Option next year) to get two good prospects in Fulton and Sanoja. Marlins get a 2nd Cueto in Lynn who possibly makes it easier to move another one of their arms before the deadline. Lynn's off the books after next year.

I doubt that is enough. Anderson is having a down year so far but he is an absolute stud. 2 WAR or better 6 out of 7 years with peaks in the 4 range. With this year and next year under control for not a ton of money, he will fetch 2 good prospects plus no need to take on any money. Fulton and Watson or a guy in Watson's range would be the price id assume.