2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

Sandy is fine, but i wonder if he might be tipping his pitches somehow when runners are on and he is pitching from the stretch. Last year when he gave up the occasional walk he avoided big innings consistently. Now, it seems like he has these great starts with 1, maybe 2 huge innings by the other team. With runners on this year, the other team is hitting .350, .899 OPs, and 11 extra base hits and 10 walks in 103 at bats. Last year, with runners on against him other teams hit .228, .625 OPS, and 21 extra base hits in close to 300 ab's. Gotta wonder whether it's tipped pitches or maybe there was a little luck last year combined with a smaller sample size this year. His OPS against with no one on is even better this year than it was last year, so i got to think something is up with him tipping pitches out of the stretch.

[lou]

We'll see, Cueto was a good signing based on his career, he had a great year last year, this year whether he's come in out of shape or it's just simply been injuries he's looked bad, but certainly not within the realm of possibilities that he comes back healthy and pitches well. That's exactly what he did last year, was injured most of the first half, came back and was the White Sox best pitcher in the 2nd half.

I agree with him proving his worth for sure. I am talking conceptually for the record.

Maybe this is a better conveyance of what I'd think - this is an every 5x game cycle. So a rough 45 innings.

Sandy 6+
Luzardo 5+
Rogers, Garrett, Cabrera, Eury, and Cueto 4+
Puk, Floro, Scott, Okert, Chargois 2 IP each
Brazoban as needed
=41+ innings

You can imagine half of the 7 SP each adding .1-1+ IP to those on a weekly basis so they pretty much land on 45 innings here. And Sandy is just going to be Sandy on top of this (58% strand rate, 73% career, 78% last year. He's going to revert rather immediately any moment). This also ignores home games they are up in the 8th and if there are some early exits/extra innings, Brazoban can come in as he doesn't even factor into this and the core 5 relievers all definitely have inventory for an extra appearance every other week.

And then if any SP gets hurt, effectively they can scale up other guys to be 5+ inning guys on average, Nardi comes up as the replacement, and he and Brazoban are throwing 2 IP a week and the 5 core relievers are probably a closer to 12+ IP per 5 game cycle versus 10. Basically it is insane depth. And that's without Eder who could really be a September add if all goes right. This also would be the "they trade one of the SP for a bat" set up and it still works with bracketing 2 SP as 1 day.


I'm all-in on this set up as soon as Rogers and Cueto are back. I feel bad for Nardi, but hey someone is probably going to be hurt so he'll mostly be up anyways. This is really letting only Sandy see guys a third time (and they should use Chargois as an opener for Luzardo to limit him a little if he spills over some), which I think is insanely valuable for this group and will spike up everyone's production.


Which then means they need to add to the bats if the SP is arguably deep playoff run ready both in upside + innings (as this balances the innings so no shut downs come September which is really important for me). This is their season WAR projections right now for the bats. A lot of SSS, but still we can see some trends.

Arraez - 5.5 WAR pace
Sanchez - 5 WAR(!)
Jazz 2.5
Soler 2.5
DLC 2
Berti 2
Fortes 2
Wendle 1.5
Segura -3(!)
---
Gurriel 2
Cooper 0
Garcia 0
Hampson 0
Stallings -3.5(!)
---
J. Davis 4


Effectively, I am imagining Jazz and Sanchez flip production here so that's not a net gain or loss which is fine, and Segura also will eventually course correct to not being a pathetic player. I feel good about those first 9 bats and they will generally continue what they are doing. Stallings is an obvious move here to get Fortes some help. Which leaves them betting on Yuli defying all analytics, Cooper stopping whiffing, Garcia course correcting, Hampson doing anything, J. Davis continuing to be absurd, or a surprise from Amaya or Edwards hitting lefties at the MLB level quickly. I don't love any of this TBH.

I'd say a catcher and an infielder anywhere who can hit lefties is needed ASAP, and then can wait a month to see what happens with Yuli/Cooper/Garcia and make a second wave of moves in July if needed. To note very SSS, but Cooper basically has a .900 OPS vs LHP and Yuli .675. I'd love for either of them to hit lefties that hard only even if the whole package sucks. All they would have to do is play versus lefties.

If we're looking for sneaky (i.e. cheap) players around baseball that might be very helpful. Nick Senzel is playing solid defense all over (2B/3B/CF) and has a career .766 OPS against LHP and higher this year. Obviously huge pedigree in draft status if he is a late-late bloomer. I don't think he'd cost much and the Reds would love the Marlins farm all over I'm sure for appropriate pieces. This then leaves maybe a massive Grandal and Anderson trade as potential missing pieces. If Anderson still struggles he still has an .872 OPS vs LHP this year right now (career .870) and Grandal is struggling but not a terrible guy to bet on. If that's all Anderson does, that works big time with Wendle a RHP platoon guy. I think Fortes would still get 60% of the time or more with Grandal too. Maybe Grandal catches more of Luzardo/Rogers/Garrett to help against base running when possible as defense is an issue.

Stallings ---> Grandal
Two of Yuli/Cooper/Garcia --- > T. Anderson
Hampson --- > Senzel
The last of Yuli/Cooper/Garcia ---> A late July edition if they really need it.


Fortes, Grandal
Arraez
Segura
Anderson
Wendle, Berti
DLC, Soler
Jazz, Senzel
J. Sanchez
Cooper/Yuli/Garcia/Lefty killer trade

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera-Garrett, Eury-Rogers, Cueto
Floro, Chargois, Brazoban
Puk, Scott, Okert

They'd have a real chance with that and I I think they could pull it off with minor leaguers not named Cappe, Berry, Watson, and Meyer, and retain at least one of Fulton/Monteverde.

[fish16]

Also, what yuli gurriel is doing isnt luck. It's right in line with his career numbers. He was never a guy who tore the cover off the ball. His career high in home runs outside of 1 year in Houston was 18. He is just a professional hitter who doesnt strike out, makes contact, and puts the ball in play. He was a great signing. The offseason plan is working. Granted, it has resulted in a ton more DP's because instead of strike outs guys are putting the ball in play in important situations, but it has led to a much better overall offense. Arraez, Gurriel, and even Segura all put the ball in play and it leads to being able to create more scoring opportunities and cash in on the opportunities when they arise (no pun intended on Arraez).

[fish16]

The other thing i see looking at Sandy's stats is that he has been terrible the 3rd time through orders. Last year his OPS against the 3rd time through the order was .638. This year, it's .840. So if im skip, im just being super cautious with him later in games. We love sandy, but he needs to prove he's able to not only go deeper into games like he did last year, but do it successfully. I'd rather pull him and move onto the next outing with 6 quality innings than push it right now until he proves he's back to the level he was at last year

[rmc523]

I’m starting to think the a’s might be terrible. Why is billy beane still there? Assuredly he could have had any much better job in the last few years

He's just in an advisory role now, and I believe is still a part owner?

[lou]

Yea I like this as Tim Anderson as the big get, and Senzel (or whoever as a lefty splits OF) and Grandal (or whoever at catcher if he is too expensive/defense too concerning)

vs RHP

Catchers
Arraez
Segura/Berti
Anderson/Wendle
Wendle/Berti
DLC (Berti for his off days)
Jazz
J. Sanchez
Soler (Yuli/Cooper survivor for his off days)
B - Senzel, Yuli/Cooper, and one of Berti, Segura, Anderson, and DLC in a rotation

Can never take out Arraez, Jazz, Wendle, and Sanchez here absent health


vs LHP then gets really fun

Catchers
Arraez (Yuli/Cooper survivor for his off days)
Segura
Anderson
Berti
DLC
Jazz (Yuli/Cooper survivor for his off days*)
Senzel
Soler

You're probably rotating Arraez and Jazz off-days as they do need breathers and are heavy splits guys. For Jazz days,* the positions become Yuli/Cooper - Arraez - Anderson - Segura - Berti - Senzel - DLC - Soler(DH) with Jazz, Wendle, and Sanchez on the bench. Or maybe Berti stays at 2B and Soler plays in the OF with Arraez DH'ing. Lot's of options here for best defense alignment.


These are pretty fun platoons and work to balance out the guys so no one is driven into the ground too much. Jazz gets some extra rest vs LHP which they should really strive for here versus worrying about his lefty development at this exact moment.


I imagine Eder, Amaya/Edwards, Miller/Millbrandt/Fitterer/Tops on FV40 right handers, and a throw in gets Anderson pretty quick. That strings, but they didn't sign one so thems the ropes.

I can't imagine for platoon/backups like Senzel and Grandal this would cost more than multiple FV40 types, with can't believe I am saying this, with Mesa Jr and Monteverde as the only untouchables from the 13 FV40 guys on Fangraphs (as they need CF defense longterm and Monteverde could be a perfect inventory arm). Marlins have the juice here to do their own "Bass/Pop-Groshans" trade here in reverse.

[rmc523]

He isn't broken, but their is definitely a trend of him letting innings get out of hand. He needs to make an adjustment.

Skip also needs to have a shorter leash with him, and slowly let it out instead of leaving him out there to fail when he doesn't have it.

[lou]

Skip also needs to have a shorter leash with him, and slowly let it out instead of leaving him out there to fail when he doesn't have it.

Yes for sure.

But then you see the game yesterday where he mows them down innings 4-7 and just the third inning is a problem. So they were right not to pull him.

We should just reset expectations for 2019-2021 Sandy versus 2022. Which frankly is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. I think he'll start doing that next start as mentioned. Let's get healthy and get some bats.

[fish16]

Yes for sure.

But then you see the game yesterday where he mows them down innings 4-7 and just the third inning is a problem. So they were right not to pull him.

We should just reset expectations for 2019-2021 Sandy versus 2022. Which frankly is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. I think he'll start doing that next start as mentioned. Let's get healthy and get some bats.

i think there is definitely something mechanically going on with him from the stretch. Maybe it will change with a bigger sample but the numbers are undeniably different with runners on and i think it's what is leading to the huge innings that have killed him. His numbers with no one on are even more dominant than last year.

[Lee Stone]

Has anyone noticed that other teams are stealing bases at will versus the Marlins? That's going to cost a bunch of games eventually.

[lou]

Has anyone noticed that other teams are stealing bases at will versus the Marlins? That's going to cost a bunch of games eventually.

Teams are 57/62 stealing bases. That is crazy bad. Only the Dodgers are worse basically (76/85 SB). Fortes is slightly better than Stallings but both are pretty bad. Good observation.

They need to get someone who can play solid defense and hit right handers a little. Grandal is terrible defensively so maybe he is hard out.

There aren't many guys out there who are likely available, but Elias Diaz (COL), Andrew Knizner (STL), and Jason Delay (PIT) are probably the best options. They are all hitting right handers a bit, Diaz a lot (but Coors), Diaz plays good defense it looks, Delay is over achieving but looking OK enough, and Knizner used to be a top prospect so hope. It's probably one of those guys.


So maybe it's something like T. Anderson/Edman as the big moves, Knizner/E. Diaz, and Senzel/Edman/some OF who can hit LHP as the three bats sooner rather than later. That all makes sense to me.

Anderson, Edman, and E. Diaz would be quite the statement if they totally unloaded the farm for those guys. This team is awesome with what everyone is doing right now:

Fortes, E. Diaz
Arraez, Yuli/Cooper survivor
Edman (Segura)
T. Anderson (Edman)
Berti, Segura
DLC (Edman)
Jazz, Senzel
Sanchez, Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Eury, Garrett, Rogers, Cueto
Floro, Chargois, Brazoban
Puk, Okert, Nardi


*I am imagining Wendle and Scott are shot out here for lowering payroll and recouping secondary prospects as Anderson and Edman would each cost one of Meyer, Eder, or Cappe as a centerpiece for sure and a very good second player along the lines of Fulton, Amaya, Edwards, and Berry. I don't think there are any system untouchables here, but I'd try to hold onto Watson, Vargas, and Mesa Jr. for upside, what-if upside, and CF defense is going to be needed down the road and he seems real ascending.

Just want to note no arm above is a free agent until 2025, and then it's only Cueto and Floro. At minimum, they'd still have one of Meyer/Eder/Fulton/Monteverde, Bender, and a half dozen FV40 bullpen arms in AAA. Basically, they can handle a farm unload if they get years of control of bats who they can extend. MLB would be really set for 4-5 years with some key extensions (Arraez, Jazz, Luzardo, Edman, other SP after them).

[rmc523]

Has anyone noticed that other teams are stealing bases at will versus the Marlins? That's going to cost a bunch of games eventually.

Stallings sucking isn't news lol.

But yes, you're right.

[rmc523]

In devastating news (not really), Garcia has a sore back and rehab is halted.

• The Marlins told reporters (including Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extra Base) that Avisail Garcia’s rehab assignment has been temporarily halted, as he will receive examination on his sore back. Garcia has already been on the IL since April 29 due to lower back tightness, so while the team described the setback as “minor,” it is a little worrisome to see Garcia further delayed. The outfielder has played in four games with Triple-A Jacksonville during his rehab assignment.

[lou]

In devastating news (not really), Garcia has a sore back and rehab is halted.

• The Marlins told reporters (including Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extra Base) that Avisail Garcia’s rehab assignment has been temporarily halted, as he will receive examination on his sore back. Garcia has already been on the IL since April 29 due to lower back tightness, so while the team described the setback as “minor,” it is a little worrisome to see Garcia further delayed. The outfielder has played in four games with Triple-A Jacksonville during his rehab assignment.

I'm not sure how he has a future here unless they fall out and just stick with him to see what happens till the end. But their cheapness never ceases to amaze me even for my low expectations.

[fish16]

Here is the Luis Arraez stat i saw earlier. In his first 444 career games, he is hitting .324, .383 OBP, .419 slugging, .802 OPS, 237 runs, 524 hites, 15 hr's, 159 RBI, 156 BB.
Tony Gwynn's first 444 career games- .324, .374 OBP, .411 slugging, .784 OPS, 234 runs, 546 hits, 12 hr's, 166 rbi, 136 BB.

Unbelievably close.