2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

You're underselling Rogers. At his worst he's an average 5th starter, at his best he's a top of the rotation candidate. Only 25 years old. He threw 9 scoreless innings in the minors coming back 2 hits, 2 BBs 12 Ks. I think he comes back dealing, we'll see.

no one is underselling rogers. He has not pitched well in almost 2 full calendar years. Him and a good reliever is not worth a top 50 prospect in baseball. IF they are going to trade Westburg, it will be for a better Luzardo type starter.

[Nick]

no one is underselling rogers. He has not pitched well in almost 2 full calendar years. Him and a good reliever is not worth a top 50 prospect in baseball. IF they are going to trade Westburg, it will be for a better Luzardo type starter.

He had a rookie year where he was amazing, All-Star, one of the best rookie years by a starting pitcher in recent memory. He had a poor 2nd year, yes. He was decent in his first 3 1/2 starts this year. I'd love for you to enlighten me on what Luzardo-type pitchers are out there on the market besides maybe Luzardo.

[lou]

Top 5 CSW rates in baseball among SP (called strike + whiffs)

Strider
Ohtani
McClanahan
B. Garrett
Kershaw

That is wild. Garrett is doing god's work right now and looks incredible.

[fish16]

He had a rookie year where he was amazing, All-Star, one of the best rookie years by a starting pitcher in recent memory. He had a poor 2nd year, yes. He was decent in his first 3 1/2 starts this year. I'd love for you to enlighten me on what Luzardo-type pitchers are out there on the market besides maybe Luzardo.

he had an amazing first half/first 2.5 months of his rookie year, the rest of the year he was not that great. he broke down as the year went on and couldnt go deeper into games. From July on, he had 9 starts, and couldnt complete 5 innings in 5 of them. He didnt get through 6 in any of them. And he missed all of august with an injury. He was not good this year. He was absolutely terrible last year. He was bad his first 2 starts, had a good 3rd start, and then got injured. He does not have top 50 prospect value. You can maybe get a flier similar guy for him. But why trade him now? You have better prospects. His value is the lowest it's been since the start of 2021. You arent getting westburg for him. Deal Meyer/Eder/Fulton/Monteverde and some of the hitters if you're looking for another cost controlled hitter to add.

[fish16]

Top 5 CSW rates in baseball among SP (called strike + whiffs)

Strider
Ohtani
McClanahan
B. Garrett
Kershaw

That is wild. Garrett is doing god's work right now and looks incredible.

he has been tremendous. And it doesnt appear to be a luck based thing. His BABIP is .333 which is normal. He has just been dominant at times. He wont go super deep into games, but if he gives you 5-6 quality innings every turn, that's all you can ask for. The fact his numbers are as good as they are with how skip left him out to dry that atlanta game is crazy. His XFIP is 3.25. Weirdly, fangraphs has his fastball down almost 2 full MPH from last year. His average fastball velocity is only 89.9 this year.

[Nick]

he had an amazing first half/first 2.5 months of his rookie year, the rest of the year he was not that great. he broke down as the year went on and couldnt go deeper into games. From July on, he had 9 starts, and couldnt complete 5 innings in 5 of them. He didnt get through 6 in any of them. And he missed all of august with an injury. He was not good this year. He was absolutely terrible last year. He was bad his first 2 starts, had a good 3rd start, and then got injured. He does not have top 50 prospect value. You can maybe get a flier similar guy for him. But why trade him now? You have better prospects. His value is the lowest it's been since the start of 2021. You arent getting westburg for him. Deal Meyer/Eder/Fulton/Monteverde and some of the hitters if you're looking for another cost controlled hitter to add.

The first 3 guys you mention have, is coming off and might have major arm injuries, and haven't had the major league success that Rogers has had. You think we'll get more for those guys than Rogers? If Rogers put together a couple of good starts he'd be a hot commodity just like that.

Maybe it would take Luzardo to get Westburg I don't know, considering the division their in and the lack of success in recent years, seems to me like the Orioles would be itching to make a move to improve their pitching by using the hitting capital they've built up.

[lou]

Sally Perez and Ken Rosenthal


https://twitter.com/mlbdeadlinenews/...5F6k6qnReU4cyQ

The thing with Perez is, his zip projections suggest he is probably worth around $45m in contract value, and is going to be paid more than that the next 2.66 seasons. If Zips is low and father time takes a few more years, at best it's maybe $60m. The absolutely best doesn't slow down Perez is maybe $70m. So it's a $0-15m in value spread. Basically, a FV50 guy (Eder) is too much, unless something else is coming back (Greinke).

Effectively Perez is worth flyer prospects or cast in the best light, a Fulton, Amaya, or Edwards, or Mack/Vargas + a FV40 right hander.

Contenders with bad catching situations that require immediate moves:

Padres
Astros
Marlins

And that's really it.

The Astros love Maldonado's defense and the other Y. Diaz is hitting a little and showing promise, so I don't see a large Perez level move here.

The Padres are bordering luxury tax thresholds, are getting the best Gary Sanchez right now, and Campusano obviously has big upside.

Both of these teams, and other contenders, are probably looking at the Diaz/Delay crowd for an upgraded backup catcher only as they have their own budgets and young guys.


I do think it medium Marlins prospects or bust for Perez unless KC is going to eat a lot of money to buy better prospects from someone to make it worth their while. And that seems opposite of what they are indicating out there.

Also they could do this:

Perez, Greinke
A. Garcia, Eder, Mack, J. Miller, and S. Reynolds

Would KC buy the good package? That probably saves them only $10-15m or so, but gets them a top 100 guy and 3 really good projectable guys. Longterm, that is their better move if their ownership is OK eating Garcia to get a premium prospect and better flyers, etc.

Should be interesting.

[fish16]

greinke to me seems like he is just weird enough to be perfectly content with ending his career on a terrible royals team. Also not sure where he really fits in once everyone gets healthy. I guess we can send eury down for a month, but if we dont trade any of the current ML rotation guys, what does our rotation look like? We arent going to take Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, or Garrett out, then you would have Rogers, Eury, Cueto, AND Greinke? Granted most of those things work themselves out and pitchers all rarely stay healthy, but i think Greinke stays there and is ok just toiling on a terrible baseball team and we just go for Catcher/SS/ maybe 1 more bullpen arm before the deadline.

Id limit it to just Perez and see if we can get him for relatively cheap due to his salary

[Nick]

greinke to me seems like he is just weird enough to be perfectly content with ending his career on a terrible royals team. Also not sure where he really fits in once everyone gets healthy. I guess we can send eury down for a month, but if we dont trade any of the current ML rotation guys, what does our rotation look like? We arent going to take Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, or Garrett out, then you would have Rogers, Eury, Cueto, AND Greinke? Granted most of those things work themselves out and pitchers all rarely stay healthy, but i think Greinke stays there and is ok just toiling on a terrible baseball team and we just go for Catcher/SS/ maybe 1 more bullpen arm before the deadline.

Id limit it to just Perez and see if we can get him for relatively cheap due to his salary

Does Greinke have a no-trade clause?

I see it as we're going to absolutely need his innings down the stretch in some fashion. Have him come out of the pen for 3-4 innings once or twice a week until he's inevitably needed in the rotation.

[lou]

The first 3 guys you mention have, is coming off and might have major arm injuries, and haven't had the major league success that Rogers has had. You think we'll get more for those guys than Rogers? If Rogers put together a couple of good starts he'd be a hot commodity just like that.

Maybe it would take Luzardo to get Westburg I don't know, considering the division their in and the lack of success in recent years, seems to me like the Orioles would be itching to make a move to improve their pitching by using the hitting capital they've built up.

I think it would take Luzardo as Westburg is going off in AAA. But I am with you, Rogers comes back with 4 mowing them down starts and it changes fast.

I have to believe the Marlins have the best SP to trade at the deadline this year and it is not close. Maybe the White Sox will really tear it down and move Cease, but past that I think guys like DeScalfani and J. Montgomery might be the top starters moved. Marlins might have the best three guys to trade if you really think about it. They could insanely ship Luzardo, Rogers, and Eder (more value than a rental) out and still be throwing Sandy, Cabrera, Eury, Cueto, and Garrett (presumably they'd take back a Greinke in one of these deals also for innings, etc.). With Meyer, Monteverde, and maybe Fulton (is he hurt?) coming next year. I don't think they'd do that, but just saying.

I still love your idea before with Basallo on the Orioles. He's not a this year guy, but that would be really nice for the system. I'd blow them away for a Westburg, Kjerstad, and Basallo acquisition. I think something like Luzardo, Eder, Okert, Miller/Millbrandt, and Soriano/Hoeing/Maldonado/Reynolds would get that done. That is a massive influx of innings for them for years and they'd have system depth to trade for rental bats this year and then go for it next year in FA as payroll is low. Westburg helps now for the Marlins. Kjerstad could help similar to Eder later or becomes a long term piece next year. Then the Marlins can be opportunistic for a catcher upgrade to Stallings (Perez, Diaz, Knizner, Delay. Whoever) and slow roll Yuli/Cooper/Garcia/Davis/Hampson and see if someone does want to be the 12th/13th man or if they need a cheap rental platoon bat to replace them.

[lou]

Does Greinke have a no-trade clause?

I see it as we're going to absolutely need his innings down the stretch in some fashion. Have him come out of the pen for 3-4 innings once or twice a week until he's inevitably needed in the rotation.

Yes he does. I'd like to think they would wave for a contender, and Miami just might be that. The Royals are horrible and they get it.

[Namaste]

We just traded MiLB Infielder Joe Rizzo to the Tigers for cash considerations

We’re scrounging together that Sally Perez money, boys.

[Nick]

We just traded MiL. Infielder Joe Rizzo to the Tigers for cash considerations

We’re scrounging together that Sally Perez money, boys.

It's happening!

[fish16]

I know you guys are kidding but that's the 2nd AAA infielder they have traded this year, the other being Alex Di Goti. I wonder if they are just trying not to block Groshans, Amaya, Edwards, etc from every day ab's there.

[fish16]

what a stat- Arraez has 239 PA's and has swung and miss 29 times total all year.