2023 Game Thread

[lou]

Get some fucking bats Kim.

I can understand some hesitation while Rogers (who was scratched for a non-throwing shoulder concern) and Cueto are out, but my god they need Jazz and a major everyday player ASAP. I'll settle for literally any infield position.

[fish16]

Mish is making it pretty obvious that when he comes back eury will go down. Annoying because he clearly belongs here, but it’s for service time. How mlb hasn’t figured out a way to not incentivize team to keep their top prospects down is beyond me. It’s not good for the players, it’s not good for the fans, it’s not good for the league, it’s literally good for just one super rich guy who owns the team

[Lee Stone]

It's up to players association to negotiate better.

[fish16]

It's up to players association to negotiate better.

Completely agree, and I get the teams want to keep costs down and that’s the whole reason for it, but it’s really just because they themselves can’t control themselves in free agency that they have to make these rules anyway. They are terrible for the game

[Namaste]

Sanchez should have murdered the 3rd pitch of the AB with bases loaded

[fish16]

that was the best win all year. 8 over!!!

[Lee Stone]

83 pitches for soft tossing Braxton Garrett? That's ridiculous. Most Marlin starters aren't even allowed to make an official quality start?

When you plan on using four bullpen guys to pitch an inning each, you are asking for trouble. Hoeing is capable of pitching three or four innings.

[Lee Stone]

Sanchez should have murdered the 3rd pitch of the AB with bases loaded

Sanchez is very inconsistent with his approach at the plate. It's maddening really. We got very lucky today.

[lou]

83 pitches for soft tossing Braxton Garrett? That's ridiculous. Most Marlin starters aren't even allowed to make an official quality start?

When you plan on using four bullpen guys to pitch an inning each, you are asking for trouble. Hoeing is capable of pitching three or four innings.

I think it's the perfect usage for Garrett to limit him as much as possible a third time through the lineup. Also he may be a soft tosser, but he throws his slider/curve the most on the staff so he arguably has the most wear and tear of all of them. He should have the lowest pitch counts.

Garret 42% (slider/curve percentage versus clumping FB variations/CU together)
Eury 42%
Cabrera 34%
Luzardo 31%
Sandy 20%
Rogers 18% (last year)

Everyone else is throwing their fastballs/changes a lot more besides Eury. And that's going to change as he ages into his fastball so I think that's a SSS and he'll be closer to Cabrera/Luzardo in a large start sample.

Effectively, Garrett is becoming really something because his slider is a wipe out pitch and he has the multiple other pitches to play off of it to keep guys off balance. And, these quick hooks aren't letting that last inning get to him. He shouldn't be going through a lineup 3 times.

In fact, when Rogers is back, they should bunch Garrett and Eury and hope they can each throw 4+ and entire games. Let Braxton go twice through and let Eury loose. Eury will probably feel 110 MPH after having two PA against Garrett. Considering they both have low innings potential this year, I think it's a perfect set up with those two for this season.

[Namaste]

lou, the Brax/Eury combo is a very good idea but they won’t do that. This team has some magic this year. The last time this team had this type of magic was 20 years ago.

[fish16]

83 pitches for soft tossing Braxton Garrett? That's ridiculous. Most Marlin starters aren't even allowed to make an official quality start?

When you plan on using four bullpen guys to pitch an inning each, you are asking for trouble. Hoeing is capable of pitching three or four innings.

I also would have tried for another inning, but they weren’t taking him out for pitch count issues, they are just clearly not going to allow him to pitch much the 3rd time through the order. The numbers show why. They are content with 5+ innings 2 times through the lineup and then going to the bullpen. I think they need to have some flexibility for times like yesterday when he was cruising, but it has little to do with how many pitches he had thrown

[lou]

lou, the Brax/Eury combo is a very good idea but they won’t do that. This team has some magic this year. The last time this team had this type of magic was 20 years ago.

Something is going to give here IMO. This is my rough estimate of what these guys have left. This ignores preserving anything for the postseason so all of these should be 10 innings less also as they can't just blow out every arm to make a run.

Sandy - as many as he can
Cueto - as many as he can
Rogers - 110
----
Garrett - 85
Luzardo - 75
Cabrera - 65
Eury - 60

It's 19.2 more turns through the rotation right now. So we'll just give Sandy the extra one as a make it or break it game in late September. It seems like Rogers may be able to come back in one cycle and Cueto in maybe 3. So we'll say:

Sandy 20
Rogers 18
Cueto 16

As start expectations here on out. They should be able to go as long as they go innings wise.

It's 42 more starts out of the next batch not including MiLB time. It might be smart to do something like this here on out:

-Garret stays his normal 5+ IP self until Cueto comes back
-Luzardo gets another normal start until Rogers is back
-Cabrera/Eury immediately go to 3ish IP SP/bulk relievers
-Luzardo moves to a 4+ IP guy with them when Rogers is back
-Garrett moves to a 4+ IP guy with them when Cueto is back

That sets up:

Sandy 20 starts (would be 33 on the year)
Rogers 18 starts
Cueto 16 starts
Garrett for three more 5+ IP starts and fifteen 4+ IP appearances
Luzardo for one more 5+ IP start and fifteen 4+ IP appearances
Cabrera for seventeen 3.1 IP appearances
Eury for seventeen 3 IP appearances

Or something like this on the most predominant rotation cycle as they'll still have to rest/skip Luzardo, Cabrera, and Eury 2-3 times.

Sandy
Rogers
Eury/Garrett (7.1+ IP)
Luzardo/Cabrera (7.1+ IP)
Cueto

And I think there is a real compelling argument to make a right hander an opener on the Rogers/Luzardo days and a lefty on the Eury and Cueto days.


This is a bit scary if anyone gets hurt, and especially Sandy, Rogers, and Cueto. Our dreams of a bat may not materialize with this remaining innings inventory unless we're talking Meyer or Eder. They really need all of these arms as I'm looking at AAA and Chi Chi, Smeltzer, and Lindgren are not throwing starts for contenders. This is really suggestive another innings eater/bulk reliever may be needed here. Another guy who can throw fifteen more starts is the injury protection they need if Rogers or Cueto doesn't bounce back. They can wait until July to figure that out though.


Maybe this does change a realistic trade wish list. If it'll be difficult to do something epic (Luzardo-Westburg), this is probably looking at E. Diaz/Grichuk (mashed lefties whole career and can play all OF spots solid) as realistic cheaper targets. Maybe an innings eater gets thrown into this also that costs nothing and that opens up a larger SP trade.


But to the point, they really have to manage innings now for late September/October. These guys are going to burn out by labor dar at current paces and they need to slow them down.

[fish16]

cant believe we are 8 over. Tied with the dodgers for 3rd in the NL. I know the national view is that this is smoke and mirrors and that we have feasted against bad teams, which to an extent has been true over the last week, but this team has been legitimately good in all aspects since the beginning of May. Our SP and hitting numbers have been among the best in baseball since the beginning of May. Our rotation isnt doing it by smoke and mirrors, they have legitimate talent which has been discussed at length for a few years now. And the hitting has been legitimately good, and im not sure that is smoke and mirrors either. Arraez is one of the best hitters in baseball and Soler has done this before. He is inconsistent over the years, but he has had full seasons like this in the past. DLC is an unproven commodity, but as lou has talked about at length, the peripherals have indicated a breakout coming so it's not inconceivable that this is who he is. Sanchez is the one guy who isnt proven, but he has the minor league track record and pedigree and might just be putting it together.

And the bullpen doesnt have the big names, but the guys have been great collectively. You will always have a few blowups that are frustrating and some guys come up and stink and ruin the overall numbers, but i dont see this bullpen having a huge regression coming. Puk has been great, scott has been unbelievable recently, Nardi appears to be a really key piece moving forward, Okert has been great, Floro is what he is (just a solid bullpen arm, shouldnt be in super high leverage spots), Brazoban has had his moments, and Hoeing has served his purpose. the only guy who has been bad is barnes. They could maybe use 1 more set up type righty, but this bullpen is talented.

I dont see this team going away, but they do need to avoid the big time losing streak amidst injuries that has plagued them for years.

[fish16]

and now that i think of it, that late inning righty that they could probably use might just be eury late in the year. I hate it but i understand it. He is too good to potentially injure and lose for a year. Get Cueto and Rogers healthy and put eury in the bullpen in august and september and then go and get a hitter using Meyer/Eder/Fulton/the rest of the hitters, and this will be a playoff team.

[fish16]

If you cant go get a quality impact hitter from Eder/Meyer/Fulton/the rest of the prospects, i would be very hesitant to do it using anyone in the rotation already. It is too hard to find quality starters like Luzardo and Cabrera for cheap, i wouldnt do it until the offseason when you can take a step back and see what you have in the depth chart ready for next year. They are going to need rogers for the rest of the year (hopefully the good version), and Cueto has no trade value, so they might unfortunately have to wait for the offseason if they still want to compete this year.

A modest C improvement should be able to be brought in using the minor league depth. Grandal is a free agent at the end of the year anyways, so he shouldnt cost a ridiculous amount anyways.