2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

Very curious to see if Troy Johnston gets more love in off-season prospect lists. Doesn't strike out a ton, hits for high average, walks, probably would want a little more power from a 1B/DH, but he's got 18 HRs this year at AA. He's older, just turned 26, but he's hit at every stop. We'll see, maybe we already had in our system what we were looking to get from Berry when we drafted him.

reminds me of Mark Canha when he was in our system who we let go off waivers and went on to have a productive career. Obviously you take age into consideration but some guys just stay in college and just produce everywhere they go. Johnston also has 23 2b's in 80 games on top of the 18 hr's. Wouldnt mind seeing him as a 1b option at least going into spring next year. If a guy just hits and hits and hits, eventually you just have to give them a chance.

[fish16]

jonathan india is another guy available for pitching. Would cost more because he is controlled through 26. Whether they get a 2b or 3b, i see them making some sort of deal that moves arraez to 1b for the rest of the year and moving forward.

[fish16]

mish strongly hinting that lance lynn is a guy they are going after for SP depth. flat out terrible this year but was really good the last 4 years. That's more of a depth move for SP than it is getting a guy who can come in and really make a difference. Terrible year, but a club option for next year they can just decline and the white sox will likely decline so basically a rental. That would be an example of bruce just taking on money to improve the team. Honestly wouldnt hate it depending on what else they do at the deadline. I think they need a SP but i dont think they need a front end guy by any means. Just someone who can give some quality innings every 5th day. Combined with at least 2 good righty reliever arms and a bat or 2, id be cool with it. Probably wouldnt cost a ton id imagine.

Much better peripherals than his numbers suggest. He has a 6.18 ERA, and then weirdly a 5.28 FIP but a 3.95 XFIP.

[fish16]

giants lose to the tigers again today for their 6th straight loss. Us, the phillies and giants now all have identical .535 Win percentages and are tied for the 3rd wild card spot. Just a game behind the reds for the first wild card. 1 game separating 5 teams.

[lou]

Im not going to get into the candelario argument because we will see who is right within the next week. You are getting him for 2 months. That will cost a solid prospect, but it will be 1-2 guys in the 10-20 area of the organization. given their rebuilding status and how far they are from contending, i would think a DSL guy and maybe a guy like Milbrandt would be more than enough. Regardless of the bidding war, they arent getting a top prospect for a guy who has 2 months before free agency. Go look at the precedents. There is no precedent for a major prospect haul for a guy of his caliber.

Also, fulton isnt going in any trades. No one is trading for a guy who is rehabbing from a very recent major surgery.

They can have whatever combo of guys outside of Meyer they want for Carlson. Eder + whatever else they want for him and a starter and preferably a reliever as well. That is worth it.

I think you are highly overvaluing the trade value of free agents in 2 months. Again, just go look at the precedent of the last few trade deadlines. 2 months of players dont get you a ton. The price goes down significantly. You dont get them for free obviously but it's not quite as much as you think it is.

Candelario comes with low luxury tax implications with hardly any salary (when many contenders are brushing on it) and is a top 30 position player in baseball. We'll see what happens, but well over half the league thinks they are in it. He's probably not getting a top 100/FV50 prospect (add in Lane or Harvey probably), but an FV45+/FV45 and FV40+ 1-2 punch is not out of the question at all. He's worth way more than Benintendi last year and he got a FV40+ and two FV40s effectively. You could maybe see Vargas, Millbrandt, and someone else if they really like Vargas.

And if the price is that low, they should have done this a month ago and is front office malpractice IMO.

[lou]

Very curious to see if Troy Johnston gets more love in off-season prospect lists. Doesn't strike out a ton, hits for high average, walks, probably would want a little more power from a 1B/DH, but he's got 18 HRs this year at AA. He's older, just turned 26, but he's hit at every stop. We'll see, maybe we already had in our system what we were looking to get from Berry when we drafted him.

Certainly working himself into the conversation for offseason protection and bringing to spring training.

It would be legit amazing for this franchise if they somehow "developed" their last starting player/entire bench with Edwards, Myers, Amaya, and Johnston (or Burdick, Groshans). That would really open up some major options to do some things in free agency as they will have some money (plus these pitchers to move).

[lou]

jonathan india is another guy available for pitching. Would cost more because he is controlled through 26. Whether they get a 2b or 3b, i see them making some sort of deal that moves arraez to 1b for the rest of the year and moving forward.

I mentioned him over a month ago he is likely expendable for them. But they need MLB pitching so how is that working? They'd probably love Garrett/Cabrera with the Marlins taking back another prospect because Cabrera/Garrett has more control years (and are better). Might be worth it if they go out and get a SP who can eat huge innings, and dare I say, Cueto is good for 50 here on out on top of that (or more likely just get a nothing transaction for an innings eater to help Eury). But a Reds move is hard because of this.

Maybe if the Marlins really fall out, Scott and Floro become an interesting combo for something like India. Put a pin in that for 5 days.

[lou]

mish strongly hinting that lance lynn is a guy they are going after for SP depth. flat out terrible this year but was really good the last 4 years. That's more of a depth move for SP than it is getting a guy who can come in and really make a difference. Terrible year, but a club option for next year they can just decline and the white sox will likely decline so basically a rental. That would be an example of bruce just taking on money to improve the team. Honestly wouldnt hate it depending on what else they do at the deadline. I think they need a SP but i dont think they need a front end guy by any means. Just someone who can give some quality innings every 5th day. Combined with at least 2 good righty reliever arms and a bat or 2, id be cool with it. Probably wouldnt cost a ton id imagine.

Much better peripherals than his numbers suggest. He has a 6.18 ERA, and then weirdly a 5.28 FIP but a 3.95 XFIP.

That is all they care about right there. I think he'd be good assuming the price is right.

[Lee Stone]

If he were qualified for Statcast percentiles, Dane Myers would be:

99th percentile in xBA
96th percentile in Hard Hit%
91st percentile in Sprint Speed
90th percentile in Average Exit Velocity
He’s also +1 in Outs Above Average playing a position he’s never played before

[lou]

giants lose to the tigers again today for their 6th straight loss. Us, the phillies and giants now all have identical .535 Win percentages and are tied for the 3rd wild card spot. Just a game behind the reds for the first wild card. 1 game separating 5 teams.

Strength of schedule rankings - https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remain...edule_strength

1 - Marlins hardest remaining schedule, .523
2 - .517
10 - .509

So the difference between the Marlins and # 2 is the same from # 2 to # 10. That's how tough August is. If they play .500 from today to September 1st, I'm going to be impressed. That'll at least make September interesting.

[Todd]

Would India be expendable? He isn't blocking anyone at 2B. He is arb eligible the first time next season. And he combines for arguably the best young Infield in baseball with Steer, De La Cruz, and McClain who are all mid 20s or younger. I suppose if you think Marte comes up and moves McClain to 2B or Elly De La Cruz to SS. Push comes to shove you let that happen and move India to DH. He would take a lot to get.

[fish16]

Rosenthal in his latest article confirms marlins interest in Lynn. Played in St. Louis with skip and Jon jay. Can’t imagine he will cost much with his contract and struggles and might be a really nice addition given his solid peripherals. I like it. Can probably nab him without giving up a top 10-15 guy. Leaves Eder for a bigger deal

[Namaste]

Giants and Phillies lost today.

I’m taking my sons for our first trip to Tropicana Field tomorrow to cheer on the Fightin Fish. We are going to both games. A split would be deluxe.

[sports24/7]

Pirates listening on bednar but will be hard to get per heyman. Rogers and Eder plus mid level guys enough? Probably not

As good as Bednar is, I'd be terrified to give up anything significant for a RP, let alone that package. Those guys just drop off of a cliff too easily. I'd have Heath Bell nightmares. That haul is more than the Padres gave up for Josh Hader, though.

[fish16]

Well, you could look at it as is being very lucky that every single other team in the wild card race fell apart right when we did, or you could look at it as a major blown opportunity to create some space. Regardless, we’re now tied for 2nd wild card, .5 behind the reds for first. Each team has flaws. Reds have 0 starting pitching. Diamondbacks have no pitching depth. Giants to me just aren’t super talented and have a mediocre lineup. We have no bullpen, a mediocre lineup, and limited pitching depth. Phillies to me are the best of the bunch but have a ton of struggling talent. I think they ultimately pull off the first wild card spot