2023 Game Thread

[lou]

The odds of an 18 year old prospect making the majors are very slim, let alone being a productive player, let alone being an all-star. I’m tired of waiting. The Marlins just got the best reliever on the market and we are busy counting our prospects. Let’s stop blowing games, let’s add a bat or two, and let’s make the real playoffs for the first time in two decades

Preaching to the choir they should have done this months ago, but they still have to be respectful to the pipeline and if you're going to spend a lot, look for non-rentals. Those Paddack, Castillo, and we can maybe even include J. Naylor trades kill you so it is obviously reasonable to do your best to avoid those and that's all I mean (and we of course all agree). I hope we don't have to add Vargas to that list. This trade is likely fine, if anything a slight overpay, but that BP quote is scary AF if he is teetering on top 100 status (let alone more). And that comes after this gem from Fangraphs 2023 prospect report which I think is really on point and this trade is a perfect example (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/miami-ma...rospects-2023/).

[I]Altogether, this system’s high-end (the number and quality of the guys in the 45 FV tier and above) is about average, while its overall depth is lacking. Some of that is still due to the echoes of the low hit rate on the Yelich/Stanton/Ozuna trades. Other than Sandy, those deals were relatively fruitless. Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, [URL="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/isan-diaz/17922/stats"]Isan D

[lou]

there is talk about robertson being the closer now, but given our lefty depth in the bullpen, i think you have to stick with puk a little longer. IF he continues to struggle, you go to robertson, but it makes no sense to now put a guy who is really your only reliable proven righty in the closer role and then have 4 lefty set up/middle relievers. I still think they need 1 more righty reliever, but it can be a chargois level. We dont desperately need another righty back end guy. just 1 more depth guy.

Right now we are looking at the following once nardi comes back this weekend: Nardi, Puk, Okert, Scott, Robertson, Chargois, Brazoban, Lopez. That is good enough. If we add other areas and cant find 1 more guy, it should be decent enough, but if they can sneak another really quality righty reliever in one of these other trades that will inevitably be coming in the next few days, it wouldnt hurt.

They can play matchups easily. Not sure they need hard roles

[fish16]

Preaching to the choir they should have done this months ago, but they still have to be respectful to the pipeline and if you're going to spend a lot, look for non-rentals. Those Paddack, Castillo, and we can maybe even include J. Naylor trades kill you so it is obviously reasonable to do your best to avoid those and that's all I mean (and we of course all agree). I hope we don't have to add Vargas to that list. This trade is likely fine, if anything a slight overpay, but that BP quote is scary AF if he is teetering on top 100 status (let alone more). And that comes after this gem from Fangraphs 2023 prospect report which I think is really on point and this trade is a perfect example (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/miami-ma...rospects-2023/).

[I]Altogether, this system’s high-end (the number and quality of the guys in the 45 FV tier and above) is about average, while its overall depth is lacking. Some of that is still due to the echoes of the low hit rate on the Yelich/Stanton/Ozuna trades. Other than Sandy, those deals were relatively fruitless. Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, [URL="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/isan-diaz/17922/stats"]Isan D

This isnt chris paddack or luis castillo. Paddack was a slightly older guy at 20 having legitimately amazing success in a higher level in A ball. Luis castillo was a guy who samson admitted that they just never thought would be a starter because loria and him are idiots. IF you remember, we traded him twice. He was also having tremendous success in A+ ball. We dealt him once for Colin Rea who ended up getting sent back because prellar lied about his elbow, and the other time i think for Dan Straily. And in all fairness, they also got him as a throw in they didnt care about for hits mcgehee

[lou]

Anyone have a single guy we have signed internationally and developed through the DSL, then FCL, then the rest of the minor leagues since Marcell Ozuna? And ozuna showed more power than any of the current guys. Deal them all for all i care.

Eury Perez

[Lee Stone]

there is talk about robertson being the closer now, but given our lefty depth in the bullpen, i think you have to stick with puk a little longer. IF he continues to struggle, you go to robertson, but it makes no sense to now put a guy who is really your only reliable proven righty in the closer role and then have 4 lefty set up/middle relievers. I still think they need 1 more righty reliever, but it can be a chargois level. We dont desperately need another righty back end guy. just 1 more depth guy.

Right now we are looking at the following once nardi comes back this weekend: Nardi, Puk, Okert, Scott, Robertson, Chargois, Brazoban, Lopez. That is good enough. If we add other areas and cant find 1 more guy, it should be decent enough, but if they can sneak another really quality righty reliever in one of these other trades that will inevitably be coming in the next few days, it wouldnt hurt.

Among the righties in the bullpen, I'd rank Soriano ahead of Chargois, Brazoban and Lopez based on how they are all throwing right now.

[lou]

Preaching to the choir they should have done this months ago, but they still have to be respectful to the pipeline and if you're going to spend a lot, look for non-rentals. Those Paddack, Castillo, and we can maybe even include J. Naylor trades kill you so it is obviously reasonable to do your best to avoid those and that's all I mean (and we of course all agree). I hope we don't have to add Vargas to that list. This trade is likely fine, if anything a slight overpay, but that BP quote is scary AF if he is teetering on top 100 status (let alone more). And that comes after this gem from Fangraphs 2023 prospect report which I think is really on point and this trade is a perfect example (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/miami-ma...rospects-2023/).

[I]Altogether, this system’s high-end (the number and quality of the guys in the 45 FV tier and above) is about average, while its overall depth is lacking. Some of that is still due to the echoes of the low hit rate on the Yelich/Stanton/Ozuna trades. Other than Sandy, those deals were relatively fruitless. Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, [URL="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/isan-diaz/17922/stats"]Isan D

The board cut off the quote


Altogether, this system’s high-end (the number and quality of the guys in the 45 FV tier and above) is about average, while its overall depth is lacking. Some of that is still due to the echoes of the low hit rate on the Yelich/Stanton/Ozuna trades. Other than Sandy, those deals were relatively fruitless. Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, [URL="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/isan-diaz/17922/stats"][B]Isan D

[fish16]

They can play matchups easily. Not sure they need hard roles

that's fair. Mish made the point that puk really struggles in back to back games, which is why they needed a guy like this. I dont quite get why he struggles given his history as a starter and the fact that he was preparing to throw a lot of innings as a starter this year in oakland, but whatever. Give me more options. And robertson has closing experience and has been in big games a ton due to his time in NY. He has 45.1 postseason innings, 2.78 era, and a 1.12 WHIP with 53 k's and 16 bb's.

[fish16]

Eury Perez

Sorry, meant to specify hitters.

[fish16]

Among the righties in the bullpen, I'd rank Soriano ahead of Chargois, Brazoban and Lopez based on how they are all throwing right now.

He could be a guy in future years because i like his stuff and he seems like the classic guy who starts throughout the minors and settles into a bullpen role for his major league career, but he has gotten very lucky this year, and he's pitched a lot of garbage games, not high leverage situations. He has a 2 ERA and a 4.57 XFIP. He doesnt strike out a ton of guys and walks 3 per 9 innings. He has a .250 BABIP. He's pitched more innings in AAA this year than the big leagues and he has a 5.33 ERA and 5.50 XFIP in AAA. He's a solid depth arm and a potential guy in future years, but he is not a reliable arm right now.

[lou]

Sorry, meant to specify hitters.

Good save. Because there is Cabrera also.

They busted on VVM and others of course. They have failed on hitting for awhile. I note Jazz was IFA and they didn't not develop him even if they got him midstream.


But it keeps cutting me off but if Bruce spends more money on IFA and stop gap FA, I agree moving these medium prospects doesn't matter even if you eventually lose one like Castillo, as you were contending and going for it plugging holes, etc.

[fish16]

Good save. Because there is Cabrera also.

They busted on VVM and others of course. They have failed on hitting for awhile. I note Jazz was IFA and they didn't not develop him even if they got him midstream.


But it keeps cutting me off but if Bruce spends more money on IFA and stop gap FA, I agree moving these medium prospects doesn't matter even if you eventually lose one like Castillo, as you were contending and going for it plugging holes, etc.

pitching they have done a good job with admittedly. Before cabrera there was urena too. Hitting is hard to develop from start to finish regardless, but i dont think there has been a single hitter since Ozuna, and before that i cant remember one off the top of my head either.

Also, sherman sucks, but the one thing i will give him credit on is the investments in IFA. even if they bust, it is important to at least try. Loria would never try and combined with never investing in the draft, it led to shitty farm systems that completely impaired our ability to build depth and sustain injuries. It's why we would always completely tank when we had injuries. Bruce at least has invested in IFA and is even building (or has built) a whole new academy in the DR. So credit to him in one area at least.

[Namaste]

Hader will be the best reliever available at the deadline but Robertson is 2nd best so this feels nice. Being upset about who we gave up given our inability to make the real post season for TWENTY years is a thing I’m also seeing on Twitter and I just don’t get it

[lou]

Hader will be the best reliever available at the deadline but Robertson is 2nd best so this feels nice. Being upset about who we gave up given our inability to make the real post season for TWENTY years is a thing I’m also seeing on Twitter and I just don’t get it

Because it's a series of moves like these that prevent you from developing a team that gets you to the postseason, when ownership is running league low payrolls to not fill holes when your farm has nothing to replace guys with. Their team depth has improved the last few years though to their credit. Guys like Amaya, Edwards, Burdick, and Myers would definitely be playing every day 4 years ago. But the next step is Bruce spending and maybe they finally see the pitching beginning to blossom so it happens next year.

Also, they need like 3+ more major players so this doesn't move any needle much. I'll personally wait to see the masterplan until the end to see if this all makes since in the global view.

[fish16]

Because it's a series of moves like these that prevent you from developing a team that gets you to the postseason, when ownership is running league low payrolls to not fill holes when your farm has nothing to replace guys with. Their team depth has improved the last few years though to their credit. Guys like Amaya, Edwards, Burdick, and Myers would definitely be playing every day 4 years ago. But the next step is Bruce spending and maybe they finally see the pitching beginning to blossom so it happens next year.

Also, they need like 3+ more major players so this doesn't move any needle much. I'll personally wait to see the masterplan until the end to see if this all makes since in the global view.

We have a lot of young, cost controlled talent, so i dont think this is similar to the loria era where we had the 4 studs and nothing else. We have Eury, Sandy, Luzardo, Jazz, Arraez, Sanchez, DLC is decent, Garrett, Cabrera, Puk, and then guys like Meyer, Eder, and Fulton. They need bats, but i think guys 5 years away who likely become nothing have 0 impact on our future ability to develop a team that gets to the post season.

[lou]

pitching they have done a good job with admittedly. Before cabrera there was urena too. Hitting is hard to develop from start to finish regardless, but i dont think there has been a single hitter since Ozuna, and before that i cant remember one off the top of my head either.

Also, sherman sucks, but the one thing i will give him credit on is the investments in IFA. even if they bust, it is important to at least try. Loria would never try and combined with never investing in the draft, it led to shitty farm systems that completely impaired our ability to build depth and sustain injuries. It's why we would always completely tank when we had injuries. Bruce at least has invested in IFA and is even building (or has built) a whole new academy in the DR. So credit to him in one area at least.

They have been doing a bit more in IFA, I agree there. They also are not cheaping out on the draft - White was EXPENSIVE and they had a plan to get him. Banfield, Fitterer, and others were also overslot so they are taking some shots even if they haven't hit one out of the park yet. As said yesterday - keep doing these good process moves and eventually it will pay off as they will start hitting on guys (like Eury) so this is all mostly good work on their part. The only quib on the player acquisition strategy is "Berry" where they should have taken a fielder, etc.

So then the missing piece where all doubts about asset trades are eliminated, is a commitment to MLB free agency and Bruce needs to make that decision to plug holes. Give Kim $125m next year and I bet the team is awesome on paper.