2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

Had this wild idea this morning to improve the team- have they thought about bringing up the 20 year old phenom who came up and immediately was one of the best pitchers in baseball and showed 0 signs of fatigue?

how about the guy hitting .360 in aaa with 30 steals?

[lou]

This might be the weirdest thing I’ve ever said, but if the Marlins trade Tanner Scott, they might as well just become sellers and not buy.

I haven’t read enough to understand the logic, but trading Tanner Scott makes absolutely zero sense. It makes less sense than trading Soler, who shouldn’t be traded at this point either, I don’t care if he comes back next year or not.

At some point, ownership has to try to win…

I haven't read anything but I have an opinion on this????? If this is referring to me, if the Marlins were to go big and get Lynn and Edman/Carlson in moves, if they were to attach Bummer and Gallegos/Hicks to those deals, that could open up a trade of Scott to get more prospects, because effectively they need more than just those White Sox and Cardinals guys. It's a selling a historical volatile guy at an absolute peak and not taking a hit because they get other RP back.

I'd also say, Xander/Turner/Correa/Swanson and Nimmo was that moment of at some point trying to win, or absorbing contracts - and I am talking many of them - right now to try and win. But we know Bruce won't do that, so hence, it's figuring out how to creatively not gut the entire farm but get them 2 major bat upgrades, a SP, and relievers/role players. They need a lot. Which is why they should have started doing this months ago.

[fish16]

I haven't read anything but I have an opinion on this????? If this is referring to me, if the Marlins were to go big and get Lynn and Edman/Carlson in moves, if they were to attach Bummer and Gallegos/Hicks to those deals, that could open up a trade of Scott to get more prospects, because effectively they need more than just those White Sox and Cardinals guys. It's a selling a historical volatile guy at an absolute peak and not taking a hit because they get other RP back.

I'd also say, Xander/Turner/Correa/Swanson and Nimmo was that moment of at some point trying to win, or absorbing contracts - and I am talking many of them - right now to try and win. But we know Bruce won't do that, so hence, it's figuring out how to creatively not gut the entire farm but get them 2 major bat upgrades, a SP, and relievers/role players. They need a lot. Which is why they should have started doing this months ago.

going to get relievers to bolster the pen and then dealing your best reliever for more fucking prospects in a year we are trying to win is just a flatly dumb move. Bummer has a near 7 ERA this year with a 1.46 WHIP. He had a 1.50 WHIP last year. He has 8 different outings this year where he has given up multiple earned runs. Gallegos has a 4.23 XFIP this year, though i like him. Hicks has a 1.51 WHIp and 24 walks in 41 innings and a 5.13 BB/9 for his career. It's ok to keep good players when they finally pan out. If Scott blows up, who gives a fuck, at least they went for it. The 2 mid prospects they get wont help them win this year.

Getting Hicks/Gallegos and Bummer and dealing scott makes your pen worse.

[fish16]

eury still being in AA doing absolutely fucking nothing is a complete disgrace

[fish16]

max meyer had a setback so no chance he pitches this year now. it was a remote chance before but now he's done. He had to go see another elbow doctor so i really fucking hope he doesnt need another TJ.

[fish16]

jacob berry at 3b experiment seems to be over. first game in AA and he was playing 1b. It was inevitable. hopefully he starts to show some power, he's been better the last few months. He seems pretty clearly like colin moran 2.0 like i said when he was drafted. We love to draft college bats that are hit tool only guys who dont have a hit tool.

[fish16]

nardi should be back any day now. First rehab appearance in AAA was perfect. scoreless inning, 2 k's, no walks or hits. Id imagine he makes one more appearance and is back for this weekend.

[lou]

going to get relievers to bolster the pen and then dealing your best reliever for more fucking prospects in a year we are trying to win is just a flatly dumb move. Bummer has a near 7 ERA this year with a 1.46 WHIP. He had a 1.50 WHIP last year. He has 8 different outings this year where he has given up multiple earned runs. Gallegos has a 4.23 XFIP this year, though i like him. Hicks has a 1.51 WHIp and 24 walks in 41 innings and a 5.13 BB/9 for his career. It's ok to keep good players when they finally pan out. If Scott blows up, who gives a fuck, at least they went for it. The 2 mid prospects they get wont help them win this year.

Getting Hicks/Gallegos and Bummer and dealing scott makes your pen worse.

Gallegos and Bummer do make the Marlins pen worse versus Scott, you are right - they move from 10th to 11th in WAR. This is important. Bummer xFIP 3.20 right now. And you're right, Gallegos is good despite some performance fluctuations. I accept your analysis that "relievers are volatile" - which is the point with Scott. This team has limited resources and unless they trade out the entire top 5-10 of the farm (which they shouldn't do even if they can move a lot of them) have limited oomph. This is a good bullpen if the SP is Sandy, Lynn, Eury, Cabrera, Luzardo, and Garret in front of it. This is quality. This is a playoff staff and bullpen for sure.

Gallegos, Floro, Chargois (Brazoban AAA)
Puk, Okert, Bummer, Nardi

So if they are going to make some huge trades for bats, they can easily jettison Scott and Wendle and maybe even Berti to effectively move value to get prospects to use the prospects to get larger upgrades (Candelario, Lynn, Edman/Carlson), if they find suitable RP - with control - to make up the difference. That is the key. The underline. Bummer is exactly the guy they should be looking for with shitty stats but the underlying analytics say he has been insanely unlucky. Lynn falls into that category too. This is smart business.

Fortes, Stallings (Or Smaller Upgrade for one of them)
Cooper
Arraez
EDMAN, Wendle/Berti
CANDELARIO, Segura
DLC
Jazz, MYERS
Sanchez, Soler
---- > Edwards is Jazz replacement and maybe he just knocks out Cooper by September


I'm not sure how you can argue with the above staff and position core if the trade sacrifices are say..... Rogers, Scott, one of Wendle/Berti, Fulton, we'll say one of Vargas/Mesa Jr., and a few FV40 guys. You'd trade that in a heartbeat for Edman, Candelario, Lynn, Gallegos, and Bummer and the surplus value math works out. This is effectively trading out 2.5 WAR on the MLB team for 5.5+ WAR. Big upgrade. View this in the aggregate and not individually as phrasing this Scott for prospects in a year isn't accurate and not seeing the big picture of what a series of moves would result in.

[lou]

max meyer had a setback so no chance he pitches this year now. it was a remote chance before but now he's done. He had to go see another elbow doctor so i really fucking hope he doesnt need another TJ.

They announced no structural damage from MRI FWIW, but yes, he appears to be a summer 2024 player at best and will need to be slow rolled.


(Internal monologue - don't mention to the board until spring training they get a year of control if they keep him down until July 2024)

[Namaste]

Saw an insane stat on the MLB ticker last night:

The Marlins have lost 19 of their last 21 games against the Rays. Looking forward to seeing another one today at The Trop.

[Namaste]

(Internal monologue - don't mention to the board until spring training they get a year of control if they keep him down until July 2024)

I lol’d. Thanks lou I needed that.

[lou]

jacob berry at 3b experiment seems to be over. first game in AA and he was playing 1b. It was inevitable. hopefully he starts to show some power, he's been better the last few months. He seems pretty clearly like colin moran 2.0 like i said when he was drafted. We love to draft college bats that are hit tool only guys who dont have a hit tool.

It looks like they were right on Naylor though 8 years later in their defense!

BTW, look at how bad Bleday's hit profile is - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. He's doing better lately, and actually has double the WAR to Puk this season because of the walks and he his right handers (.4-.8), but clearly not a top 5 pick. That being said, I would love to see the hit profile against just right handers as maybe the lefty numbers are dragging this down. Also, Bleday's WAR is higher than DLC's because of how bad DLC's defense is. That is just bad. I'm interested in seeing how Puk and Bleday end the year to see if this one has backfire potential. I think I'm still sticking with Puk as that statcast profile is yikes.

[Lee Stone]

Jorge Soler, Garrett Cooper, De La Cruz, J Sanchez, Nick Fortes, Jacob Stallings, Wendle, Segura, etc. See ya, don't like to watch ya. Imagine having a lineup with no power, no speed, no ability to draw bases on balls ... actually we don't have to imagine it ... it's right there on the tv every night. Speed is a wonderful thing. Generally speaking, it makes for solid defense and opportunistic baserunning. Small ball shows up every night.

No sense arguing over the weakest link on the team when we already know it's catching. Ryan Teel, an accomplished ACC MVP with as high a liklihood of MLB success as you can find in a catching prospect, was inexplicably passed over. I'll probably be whining over that for years.

The next weak spot is in the dugout. Skip gives the club nothing, night in and night out. If you refuse to move runners around the bases, what's the point? Can't win going station to station, needing three hits to score a run.

Some help could have been available over the off season. The one player who could have injected multiple position prospects with his trade value, Alcantara, is still a Marlin.

As things stand, having Chisholm back and hopefully adding X Edwards to the everyday group, will add some excitement. Troy Johnston, now at AAA, has emerged as a legitimate candidate to play first base.

The pitching staff has no real trade chips other than Luzardo, Perez and T Scott right now, and they are all parts of a brighter day.

If the team wants to make a smash and bring in a slugger, I imagine that Juan Soto would be the costly answer. I'd have to look closely at the rosters, but perhaps Blake Snell could be included.

[fish16]

Gallegos and Bummer do make the Marlins pen worse versus Scott, you are right - they move from 10th to 11th in WAR. This is important. Bummer xFIP 3.20 right now. And you're right, Gallegos is good despite some performance fluctuations. I accept your analysis that "relievers are volatile" - which is the point with Scott. This team has limited resources and unless they trade out the entire top 5-10 of the farm (which they shouldn't do even if they can move a lot of them) have limited oomph. This is a good bullpen if the SP is Sandy, Lynn, Eury, Cabrera, Luzardo, and Garret in front of it. This is quality. This is a playoff staff and bullpen for sure.

Gallegos, Floro, Chargois (Brazoban AAA)
Puk, Okert, Bummer, Nardi

So if they are going to make some huge trades for bats, they can easily jettison Scott and Wendle and maybe even Berti to effectively move value to get prospects to use the prospects to get larger upgrades (Candelario, Lynn, Edman/Carlson), if they find suitable RP - with control - to make up the difference. That is the key. The underline. Bummer is exactly the guy they should be looking for with shitty stats but the underlying analytics say he has been insanely unlucky. Lynn falls into that category too. This is smart business.

Fortes, Stallings (Or Smaller Upgrade for one of them)
Cooper
Arraez
EDMAN, Wendle/Berti
CANDELARIO, Segura
DLC
Jazz, MYERS
Sanchez, Soler
---- > Edwards is Jazz replacement and maybe he just knocks out Cooper by September


I'm not sure how you can argue with the above staff and position core if the trade sacrifices are say..... Rogers, Scott, one of Wendle/Berti, Fulton, we'll say one of Vargas/Mesa Jr., and a few FV40 guys. You'd trade that in a heartbeat for Edman, Candelario, Lynn, Gallegos, and Bummer and the surplus value math works out. This is effectively trading out 2.5 WAR on the MLB team for 5.5+ WAR. Big upgrade. View this in the aggregate and not individually as phrasing this Scott for prospects in a year isn't accurate and not seeing the big picture of what a series of moves would result in.

I get what you are saying, but what im saying is Lynn and Candelario are free agents to be. If we're making a run for this year, it makes no sense to trade a top 10 reliever this year for prospects. That doesnt mean you cant still do that in the offseason when you have a bigger grouping of players to sign for the bullpen. But doing those moves and then making your bullpen worse doesnt make sense at the deadline. You can absolutely talk me into doing it in the offseason with him as a free agent to be. But they need to go all in if they are going to try to make moves like that, which im all for. But adding significant pieces like that and then trading your best reliever at the same time is not the move. If you want to capitalize on his value, pitch the shit out of him down the stretch and then move him in the offseason to recoup the prospects you might be getting rid of at the deadline for those improvements.

[fish16]

Jorge Soler, Garrett Cooper, De La Cruz, J Sanchez, Nick Fortes, Jacob Stallings, Wendle, Segura, etc. See ya, don't like to watch ya. Imagine having a lineup with no power, no speed, no ability to draw bases on balls ... actually we don't have to imagine it ... it's right there on the tv every night. Speed is a wonderful thing. Generally speaking, it makes for solid defense and opportunistic baserunning. Small ball shows up every night.

No sense arguing over the weakest link on the team when we already know it's catching. Ryan Teel, an accomplished ACC MVP with as high a liklihood of MLB success as you can find in a catching prospect, was inexplicably passed over. I'll probably be whining over that for years.

The next weak spot is in the dugout. Skip gives the club nothing, night in and night out. If you refuse to move runners around the bases, what's the point? Can't win going station to station, needing three hits to score a run.

Some help could have been available over the off season. The one player who could have injected multiple position prospects with his trade value, Alcantara, is still a Marlin.

As things stand, having Chisholm back and hopefully adding X Edwards to the everyday group, will add some excitement. Troy Johnston, now at AAA, has emerged as a legitimate candidate to play first base.

The pitching staff has no real trade chips other than Luzardo, Perez and T Scott right now, and they are all parts of a brighter day.

If the team wants to make a smash and bring in a slugger, I imagine that Juan Soto would be the costly answer. I'd have to look closely at the rosters, but perhaps Blake Snell could be included.

literally all this team does is small ball. We have the 4th best average in baseball and the 7th fewest strikeouts. We have the 9th worst slugging percentage in baseball. We have no consistently productive run producers. We dont need more small ball, we need mashers to pair with the small ball guys like Arraez/ Sanchez is good, DLC is mediocre, Fortes should be in AAA, and segura has been good for a month and will be fine. Soler is streaky. Its the problem with relying on him to be your 2nd best player. If he was your 4th or 5th best hitter he is a great option. But relying on him nightly to produce runs just is not a formula for success. Wendle, Stallings, and Cooper need to go. Cooper is either hurt, has a mysterious illness, is red hot, or is fucking awful for weeks on end. Enough of the guy already. He has no business hitting this high in a lineup.