2023 Game Thread

[lou]

Sobering reality check this series has been so far.

It's going to happen.

I blame Bruce for not giving Kim a larger budget in the offseason, or, not giving her a larger budget now to go for it. With the Mets, Padres, and Phillies all scuffling, one can make a good argument all you need to do is beat the Giants or Pirates for the last wild card. Maybe some of the larger SP trades can't happen with Rogers/Cueto still hurt, but there are moves to be made as the Rockies, Nationals, Royals, and others who are already very dead have pieces the Marlins could use and it wouldn't be expensive.

Hopefully they are still just not thinking 2024 when they have more innings but we'll see.

[Lee Stone]

It's going to happen.

I blame Bruce for not giving Kim a larger budget in the offseason, or, not giving her a larger budget now to go for it. With the Mets, Padres, and Phillies all scuffling, one can make a good argument all you need to do is beat the Giants or Pirates for the last wild card. Maybe some of the larger SP trades can't happen with Rogers/Cueto still hurt, but there are moves to be made as the Rockies, Nationals, Royals, and others who are already very dead have pieces the Marlins could use and it wouldn't be expensive.

Hopefully they are still just not thinking 2024 when they have more innings but we'll see.

I certainly don't blame the Marlins owner for taking away Kim's allowance. Her ventures into free agency have been disasterous. The farm system is utterly lacking. She's history after this season. and very deservedly so.

[lou]

I certainly don't blame the Marlins owner for takin away Kim's allowance. Her ventures into free agency have been disasterous. She's history after this season. and very deservedly so.

Not sure what world you are living in here. Kim is going to get a multi-year extension with what is going on right now unless you project a disaster next few months (which may happen). The team is exceeding all expectations with a terrible budget and maybe they keep it up. Garcia, Stallings, and Segura have been extremely bad but Arraez, Soler, seemingly Edwards, Scott, Puk, Okert, and Chargois have been good, and they've turned guys like Garrett and DLC into real longterm pieces. It does seem like that have been some draft mistakes, but there is plausible deniability that some guys will take some time, others are exceeding expectations (Eder, your boy Monteverde), and she signed a top 100 guy in Cappe (and who knows about the other young ones (Vargas, etc.)). How's the Sandy extension looking before he won the cy young? Jazz to CF was a ballsy call and it was paying off? Any credit for finishing the development of Cabrera and Eury, or transforming Luzardo post injuries? There is a lot to like here even if there are the obvious swings and misses.

I do believe don't mess up the big ones, and Garcia and Berry are both absolutely top 5 decisions she has made that have not worked out so far and likely won't and she deserves a lot of criticism for them. But I think she has done a better job than you think she has done overall. Look at this team RIGHT. NOW. Maybe it's not enough to not be fired if the wheels fall off, but no person is fixing what they inherited with Bruce's budget in effectively 2 years. So call me sympathetic because you drop Swanson (2.4 WAR) and Nimmo (2.1 WAR) on this team which most normal owners would have done with this team, and that would have catapulted them to the 19th lowest payroll instead of 24th and they'd have a real winner on paper. And that's why all the Kim criticism I think is over the top, because Bruce is the villain here even if Kim has her own issues. Big picture, I think she gets an extension with what's happening unless the wheels really fall off. She wins 79 games (10 win improvement) and I can't see any scenario she is not retained. That's starting to look like a good bet as that's a .446% win percentage rest of season and that's barely above last year's pace of .426%.

[fish16]

a minor addition at the deadline needs to be a righty set up man. Brazoban is not good, he was getting lucky early in the year. He gave up runs in 6 of 9 outings before going down and walked way too many guys all year. Archie bradley hasnt been good at the major league level since 2018 other than the shortened 2020 year. We are good on lefties with Puk, Okert, Scott, and Nardi, but we really need 1 more hard throwing right set up guy. Maybe Eury is that guy late in the year, but with rogers injury lasting longer who knows what happens with him.

[Nick]

I certainly don't blame the Marlins owner for taking away Kim's allowance. Her ventures into free agency have been disasterous. The farm system is utterly lacking. She's history after this season. and very deservedly so.

52 wins buddy.

[lou]

The team is objectively pretty solid just to judge Kim:

Arraez - 1.7 WAR (262 PA) - likely over achieving with a .400 BABIP but are we crying about a .340 hitter?
Soler 1.5 WAR (267 PA) - analytics support
Sanchez - .8 WAR (125 PA) - not sure what to make yet, but he has improved
Jazz - .7 WAR (159 PA) - underachieving dramatically on offense IMO
DLC - .6 WAR (258 PA) - BABIP is down to .362 so he's leveling off. He's fine but the defense is bad and they need to figure that out. Fine 3rd OF.
Fortes - .5 WAR (143 PA) - Has turned it around, he's a fine low end starter/amazing backup
Berti - .5 WAR (199 PA) - This is a great platoon/backup
Wendle .4 WAR (98 PA) - Another great platoon/backup

Sandy 1.5 WAR (83 IP) - Underachieving.by probably over a run on ERA
Luzardo 1.5 WAR (77 IP) - Underachieving by probably half a run on ERA
Garrett 1.1 WAR (60 IP) - FIP says radically underachieving, but I'll say this is beyond fair
Cabrera .7 WAR (67 IP) - FIP says 1 run on ERA underachieving
Eury + Rogers .5 WAR (47 IP) - Probably fair
Puk, Scott, Okert, Nardi 2 WAR (100 IP) - Pure hot lava fire of awesome
Floro, Chargois, Brazoban .7 WAR (85 IP) - This is fine

That's 21 guys all performing very well for who they are, I think there is more UNDER achieving then over achieving if you genuinely ask me to pick one, and we'll add Segura and Cueto as they can't give up on them so quickly.

They need this IMO:

Backup/platoon catcher - Stallings sucks
an IF starter - Hampson sucks and so does Yuli/Cooper, should push Segura more to bench
a second IF (1B) upgrade over Yuli/Cooper who both suck
platoon OF who hits lefties - Davis is likely not holding up here and Burdick is not the answer for a playoff run
Innings eater - Because they definitely need 60-75 IP minimum and that's if everyone stays healthy

With 23 guys, it's effectively just optioning Brazoban down (which they already did) and if no major major deal is happening, Scott or Okert needs to go to a contender to open up the last roster spot. That makes sense with their depth and to maximize a RP trade return.

This is not asking a lot here and Kim should be able to do this. Maybe I am wrong here and Davis holds up (.9 WAR last 140 PA this and last year heavily defensively/speed) (or Edwards can handle a Wendle/Berti load in the OF versus LHP), one of Yuli/Cooper/Garcia holds up for 1 spot, Amaya comes up soon and rocks lefties with plus defense (.884 OPS vs LHP in AAA), and Hoeing can eat a bunch of innings until Eder is maybe ready August 31st. Maybe Brazoban is being sent down to stretch out for 4+? That would work on paper assuming Jazz, Rogers, and Cueto do get back ASAP and are their normal selves. But I'd venture to say a good team has Davis, Amaya, Edwards, Brazoban, Hoeing, and Eder in AAA as injury replacements not core roster contributors.


Big picture, my criticism is complacency as they need to run up the wins so much now to deflect against the doom of the August schedule. It takes two to tango with a move, but the Rocks, Royals, and others are done so there are opportunities here to go for it. After 5 years of BS payrolls and "rebuilding" or "building" depending on who you talk too, I'd like to think ownership would try here. Or maybe they are and Kim can't close a deal. Happy to blame Kim here if that is what is happening, but I think it's Bruce as it always starts with the money. They could absorb contracts easy from others if he lets them and get them the help they need.

[fish16]

I certainly don't blame the Marlins owner for taking away Kim's allowance. Her ventures into free agency have been disasterous. The farm system is utterly lacking. She's history after this season. and very deservedly so.

Farm system is lacking? We have Nasim "starting by June" Nunez, Patrick "best thing since sliced bread" Monteverde, Anthony "best reliever in history" Maldonado, CJ "i don have a clever nickname for him" Hinojosa, and the man, the myth, the legend, Dane Mears.

[rmc523]

Hopefully we can win tonight and salvage a game of the series.....and hopefully this doesn't start a downward spiral

[fish16]

they might have been a few games under to start this series but losing 2 to start the series to the mariners is not some terrible losses. they have played like shit but the mariners are good and we ran into their 3 best pitchers this series with luis castillo pitching for them tonight. they were in the playoffs last year for a reason. We have been playing great baseball for over a month now. Since the last time we got swept by the braves and then lost 2 to the cubs, we are 21-13 over the last 34 games. Yes we have to play better against the better teams, but i wouldnt get concerned yet. WE have the nats coming up this weekend who we have killed the last 2 years, 3 with the blue jays at home, and then 4 at home against a pirates team who is 14-23 since their hot start. We never seem to play well out west. Hopefully eury can help salvage a game and we can move on to the nats.

[lou]

Just want to point out that team above of 21 people is a 35+ WAR season pace projection. Yes I am ignoring Segura and the rest of the suck here intentionally. I've viewing this forward-thinking. They probably need to get to 40+ WAR team pace to sneak into the playoffs for a normal W/L distribution, maybe closer to 42+. So they need to add some production here quickly on a big picture level. The one run luck got them a win cushion, but now they need to sustain it. They probably make the playoffs if they can play .500 here on out

If they do nothing, they'd need this happen:

-Jazz and Sandy to play at a 5+ WAR pace July-September - unlikely, although they may chip in something more here then what they are doing so this may still be a net gain. Sandy has been playing at a 3+ WAR pace and Jazz just under.

-Every other SP collectively chips in another win or two versus what they are doing - likely

-Segura starts playing like a 1.5+ WAR player which I mean come on my man. Or some other internal IF (edwards? amaya? can do this) - Sadly unlikely

-No radical downturns in production anywhere - likely. I like the group and for no bottoms to drop out besides Yuli or Davis types

-They keep getting lucky with Davis playing very solid, Yuli's bottom not dropping yet despite the analytics, etc. where there are no huge negatives here. Maybe Amaya is a real sneaky player coming with the LHP splits, or Cooper or Garcia get their shit together - unlikely

-Replace Stallings with a solid backup that isn't embarrassing - likely



Effectively they might be able to pull this off doing hardly anything, but correct me if I am wrong - "everything must go right STILL" and "they should build in a margin of error and adding some genuine upgrades in 2-3 bats and an innings eater will pay off a lot."


They should go for it. This is a very solid core with some real upside who just needs to play .500 today forward.

[fish16]

they absolutely should go for it with prospects in trades, not only because they have gotten to 8 and now 6 games over, but because of just how dissappointing the mets and phillies have been and how flat out disastrous the cardinals have been. If there is ever a question as to whether spring training results mean jack shit, just look at the cards.

And with that said, we need to look to them as a potential team that will sell at the deadline with pieces that can very much help us. Knizner, any one of the outfielder if they are concerned about CF backup plans with jazz, and a righty reliever.

a guy id be after out of their bullpen- chris stratton. Super cheap, free agent after the year, Has had an XFIP below 4.09 each of the last 4 years. Wouldnt cost much. and gives them a different look as his average fastball is only 93. A Knizner/Stratton combo deal wouldnt light up the headlines but that would be 2 quality additions that make the team better on the fringes.

If they want to go for a little higher of a ceiling on the bullpen addition, Giovanny Gallegos would also make sense. 3.09 ERA and .95 WHIP for his career. Really good reliever. He throws a little harder at 94.5, under contract next year as well for a little over 5 million. That to me is the perfect right handed set up guy to add to take the brazoban/bradley spot that hasnt been great. He just does not walk people and is 10.71 k/9 for his career. Had a WAR of 2.2 2 years ago, 1.3 last year. Knizner and Gallegos would cost slightly more but i still cant imagine it would be a ton.

[fish16]

I could see some combo of 2 of fitterer, mack, watson, monteverde, miller, making sense for Gallegos and Knizner. Cards desperately need young pitching in their system. They dont need much hitting outside of maybe a long term C if contreras is a train wreck.

[lou]

Some love for DLC and Sanchez - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-marl...than-expected/

TLDR - They should continue hitting like this, but Sanchez is probably overachieving a little but these guys look like fine guys right now.

[fish16]

Sanchez is defintiely overachieving as he obviously wont be a 900 ops guy, but there is definitely a comfortable middle ground for him as an 800 OPS guy with what we have seen this year. The biggest thing so far is he is starting to walk a little more, up to around 10-11% this year as opposed to 7-8% in recent years. Other than that, his statcast shows he is back to barreling balls back at the level he was in 2021 as opposed to last year which is leading to a better hard hit %. The underlying numbers also show that he isnt getting lucky, which is encouraging. His expected OBP and Slugging is right in line with his actual numbers right now.

Also happy to admit that i have been wrong about DLC. As i said all along, happy to be wrong about him as that is good news for the team. That bat will play as long as it keeps up this level of production. He is a truly awful baserunner and a bad fielder but fuck it, there is a place in any lineup for him if he can keep doing this. He could be the long term DH heir to Soler when he leaves next year for a bigger contract because the fielding is really bad. He has been hitting great this year and only has a .6 WAR due to the glove.

Theoretically, if Jazz is in CF, Sanchez in RF, and DLC at DH, you are then only in the market for a long term LF which isnt the hardest thing in the world to find. Im guessing Arraez moves to 1b next year with cooper gone and edwards takes over at 2b, so we need to find a long term C, SS, and 3b, which is better than the 8 positions it looked like we needed earlier in the year.

[Nick]

I’ve always loved Sanchez’s potential. That being said this not the first time he’s gone on a hot streak. Hopefully he can maintain, which he’s never been able to do at the big league level. I’m cautiously optimistic, but not 100% sold.