2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[fauowls44]

Id be fine with going with Alvarez as the centerpiece and then getting like 4 or 5 guys. something like Alvarez, James, Nova, lower level guy, and Stubbs for JT and Conley/Steck/Straily.

No thank you. Any deal for JT needs to start with an elite level prospect. No reason to settle. Someone will give the Marlins what they are looking for.

[Lee Stone]

No thank you. Any deal for JT needs to start with an elite level prospect. No reason to settle. Someone will give the Marlins what they are looking for.

But the question is: Is Tucker a Brinson-like elite talent? His first look at the big time last season was a serious flop in every way, defensively and offensively.

[sports24/7]

Mish's report seems odd to me. Every other outlet is saying Tucker has been offered. I'm not saying he's wrong, obviously I don't know, but it would be weird that the Astros wouldn't be willing to deal Tucker given their OF depth and recent moves.

Has it been reported that Tucker's been offered? I've seen it speculated after the Brantley signing, but I don't think I've seen anyone actually report that he's been offered.

But the question is: Is Tucker a Brinson-like elite talent? His first look at the big time last season was a serious flop in every way, defensively and offensively.

First of all, Brinson was never as highly touted as Tucker. Also, Tucker struggled at the ML level at 21. This isn't Brinson at 23.

[Namaste]

They dont want 1 key guy. They want that Yelich type package

Judging by the recent Fangraphs Top 32 Marlins prospects after trading every major asset except JT, the Marlins should want that one key guy.

And I would hope the Front Office isn’t buzzing with “hey guys, let’s go do another Yelich type deal here”.

You know, the one where they got Brinson as the centerpiece for the NL MVP with a very friendly club contract.

[rmc523]

Has it been reported that Tucker's been offered? I've seen it speculated after the Brantley signing, but I don't think I've seen anyone actually report that he's been offered.



First of all, Brinson was never as highly touted as Tucker. Also, Tucker struggled at the ML level at 21. This isn't Brinson at 23.

I seem to remember a few places reported Tucker was offered.

[lou]

Judging by the recent Fangraphs Top 32 Marlins prospects after trading every major asset except JT, the Marlins should want that one key guy.

And I would hope the Front Office isn’t buzzing with “hey guys, let’s go do another Yelich type deal here”.

You know, the one where they got Brinson as the centerpiece for the NL MVP with a very friendly club contract.

Ideally yes, but I think you just get best value at positions of need (basically everywhere except RHP bullpen relievers, since you need the entire field accounting for you can move around Anderson/Diaz/VVM all over the place and the only real depth the organization has is RHP relievers). They aren't contending for (at least) 2 years so whatever the best deal is, even if it's a bulkier one, that's fine as they just need to increase their assets and inventory.

While the FG list was depressing compared to trading Yelich, it does suggest there is a high floor variance for (most) of the Marlins guys MLB ready 2021 and sooner. For instance, Diaz, Anderson, and VVM are probably safe 2+ WAR starters with their profiles/defense/positions (looking at VVM at CF here). They will get at least three backend starting pitchers out of Urena, Neidert, Gallen, Pablo, or the relievers who do better than expected in the next sentence, etc. They will get a high end bullpen (looking at the floor here for the arms especially) with Alcantara, Guzman, E. Cabrera, Richards, Holloway, Ca. Smith, Quijada, and the other 8-10 inventory arms (Anderson, Kinley, Guerrero, Eveld, Keller, Merandy, Dugger, Beggs, etc.) they have. They also probably get a few solid positional backups (Riddle with the defense and a little pop, they mentioned Cooper should hit a bit, if they fail Brinson/Monte is probably Michael Taylor and he's a pretty good bench outfielder).

I mean, you want to start with higher end prospects to develop stars in a rebuild, and they should have gotten at least "1" sure fire one for Yelich (I think its debatable whether Stanton, Dee, or Ozuna could get one of those guys), but if they only get the "high floor" prospect team from what they currently have, that's the makings of a solid squad.

In 2021, this costs: $42 million - Arbitration Players ($20/approx), Chen ($16), Club Control ($6/approx)

C - ______, ______
1B - _______, Cooper
2B - Diaz
SS - _______, Riddle
3B - Anderson
LF - ________
CF - VVM, Brinson (let's assume he becomes Michael Taylor and Monte fails)
RF - ________

SP - ______, _______, Urena, Neidert, Pablo/Gallen
RHP - Alcantara, Guzman, E. Cabrera, Richards, Holloway/Inventory Arms
LHP - _______, Ca. Smith, Quijada
(Dead Money - Chen)

You're probably getting around 20 WAR with the above. From there:

Realmuto is going to turn into a FV60/55, FV55/50, FV45, and FV40 prospect
Steckenrider is going to turn into a FV50/FV45+, FV40 prospect
Conley is going to turn into a FV45+, FV40 prospect
Castro, and maybe Straily, Wittgren, Rojas, and 1 year free agents will turn into FV45/40 guys

Adding 5+ players to the above team from these trades (assume a 50% fail rate), and presumably the 1 really good one from Realmuto, starts plugging those holes fast. You could move that easily to around 28-30+ WAR/$45 million team if they can get 3 starting players out of this. And I'm not talking about even great ones. I'm talking about another Anderson, Diaz, Neidert, and Ca. Smith type guys.

And then it gets interesting.

-Now you have 4+ spots left to fill, and how much money will they spend? That's the question. They've basically gotten back to .500 doing this, with a much more sustainable team and farm system (super important), but are they actually going to spend to put them over the top?

-Likewise, at this point the farm is highlighted by Banfield, Devers, Osiris, Scott, Pompey, Garret, Rogers, 2019 # 4 overall pick, two 2nd round 2019 Picks, a presumable top 5 2020 pick, a good 2020 second rounder, and also presumably another 1-2 impact IFA signings as it seems they are going to be active. That's ignoring any draft/acquisition wins like C. Torres or Dunand working out. That should be a top half, if not better, farm system given the high end draft capital of the 2019/2020 picks.

-So now you're in a scenario where you can spend god-willingly $50+ million in free agency on 2 studs and some reserve players, and importantly, your entire MLB team is club controlled for 3+ years, so you can trade for a Yelich/Realmuto/Ozuna/Kluber/Bauer/Andujar/Pham/Paxton/Segura (I'm just listing guys recently available that a contender would trade for right now) and it's not impacting things in the farm.

-All of this is ignoring a breakout also, as if Brinson/Monte/Alcantara/Guzman (I'm not sure anyone else has the true upside to be elite) hits their top end projection, you're in even better shape

And this is my very long way of saying, that's where the depth trade comes in. If they can build out a very high floor team like this (which I don't think is outrageous, I'm giving them 3 average starters, three back end SP, a full bullpen, and 2 good bench position players), they can absolutely take a "bulk" Realmuto deal to just keep amassing value because at some point, the team is just going to be filled with so many good/solid/useful players that are so cheap, they'll have so much flexibility to do a ton of different things.

I'd prefer a Tucker high end too, but Alvarez and friends still fits into what's going on.

Definitely the holidays and nothing going on at work boys.

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I think it's interesting to look at teams like the Rays:

Snell - 4.6 WAR, no other pitcher over 2 WAR. Their next 12 pitchers collectively got 12 WAR. I feel the Marlins have, or will have post Realmuto/Steck/Conley/Castro trades, pitchers 2-13 out of this list in 2021, i.e. the free agent ace to plop on top all of a sudden creates a pretty good staff.

Same concept with the bats. Cleveland's team offense was 27 WAR, but basically 16 of that was Lindor/Ramirez. I feel the Marlins can start chipping away at that differential with better players than their worst starters - E5 (1), Alonso (.7), and Naquin/Melky/Guyer platoon (.8). You're making it up fast if your worst three starters are 2+ WAR players.

Anyways, a bulk deal could work. Just get useful guys who will actually be players. More Andersons and Urenas is a good thing.

[Lee Stone]

This from a DRays site:

They get: C JT Realmuto
Marlins get:

OF Jesus Sanchez
P Shane McClanahan
IF Nick Solak
P Resly Linares

Love the latter three. Would try to shuffle Sanchez for C Hernandez and B Lowe or Brujan

[lou]

This from a DRays site:

They get: C JT Realmuto
Marlins get:

OF Jesus Sanchez
P Shane McClanahan
IF Nick Solak
P Resly Linares

Love the latter three. Would try to shuffle Sanchez for C Hernandez and B Lowe or Brujan

I think you take that on the spot. That would be fantastic, especially if the Marlins aren't kicking in Steckenrider or Conley.

[Lee Stone]

We agree ... so why is this not a done deal!

[fish16]

No thank you. Any deal for JT needs to start with an elite level prospect. No reason to settle. Someone will give the Marlins what they are looking for.

Yordan Alvarez should be considered an elite level prospect, and if you can also get a 4-5 prospect deep package as a result of not requiring Tucker, you do it. Im also incredibly high on Alvarez though so that's why id be fine with it. IF you get him as a centerpiece and then 2 SP's (say Martin and Bukauskus), another SS for the system with high potential in nova, and then take a flier on Stubbs as a starting C and see if youve got anything there that would be a really great deal.

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Id love to get Liberatore and Mclanahan in a deal with the rays. Jesus Sanchez doesnt do much for me although i can see why scouts are high on him. McKay too seems like a guy who is rated highly because he plays both sides of the ball but i just dont see him being special on either side of the ball and realistically he will have to choose 1 long term, although he could be a weapon off the bench as a pinch hitter if he becomes a SP and that would have some value.

[lou]

Yordan Alvarez should be considered an elite level prospect, and if you can also get a 4-5 prospect deep package as a result of not requiring Tucker, you do it. Im also incredibly high on Alvarez though so that's why id be fine with it. IF you get him as a centerpiece and then 2 SP's (say Martin and Bukauskus), another SS for the system with high potential in nova, and then take a flier on Stubbs as a starting C and see if youve got anything there that would be a really great deal.

I agree. Alvarez is just "the lowest" centerpiece they should strive for.

Asking for both pitchers is a lot, but Martin, Nova, Framber, and Stubb/Stassi shouldn't be a problem for them.

[fish16]

From the rays id jump all over something like Liberatore, Mclanahan, the catcher Hernandez, and then a guy like Brujan but for some reason the front office wants guys closer to MLB ready and that would be a trade for 2021. Liberatore is the kind of guy though id jump all over and try to in some sense buy low before his value sky rockets over the next year or 2. Mclanahan too albeit to a lesser extent.

Or if they were willing to bite the bullet and go super long term value with the JT deal figure out a way to include Sandy Gaston in a deal now that he got his money that he wanted from the rays that we couldnt afford after signing everyone named victor.

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I agree. Alvarez is just "the lowest" centerpiece they should strive for.

Asking for both pitchers is a lot, but Martin, Nova, Framber, and Stubb/Stassi shouldn't be a problem for them.

Ya im cool with that, just have Denbo identify the SP they view as having the highest ceiling rather than highest floor and go Alvarez, SP, Nova, Stubbs, 5th piece. Thats a hell of a deal for the marlins both in terms of getting really good prospects AND filling most of our exact needs.

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I take back what i said about sanchez actually. I was concerned about his power but his age and body type indicate he will develop more power over time.

[lou]

Interestingly, the Rays just acquired a competitive balance pick in the Profar deal. That's the kid of asset you kick to the Marlins as it doesn't impact any current depth.

[fish16]

Getting profar is a great move for the a's. wish we bought low last offseason like i suggested and we could have either signed him long term at SS or flipped him when he broke out.

[flamarlins93]

Interestingly, the Rays just acquired a competitive balance pick in the Profar deal. That's the kid of asset you kick to the Marlins as it doesn't impact any current depth.

Unless the rules have changed you can only trade the picks one time. Once it's been traded it stays with that team.