2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

Observations: The Pedro Alvarez signing was a mystery to me. Trade Straily and Urena because they are cheap and very good. Conley not so sure. He's got that Brad Hand mystery potential and hang on to him for at least half a season.

[Erick]

So against 1 year deals? They signed Maybin LY and were trying on 2 or 3 others

They would love to sign 2 or 3 vets to 1 year deals but the problem is where do they play them? If vets sign 1 year deal they wanna play not sit on the bench for a bad team OR wanna play for a contender. Plus if u wait till Feb/March guys will sign for cheap

Still are looking at a left handed OF(Jon Jay) who can play all 3 spots that they can trade at the deadline and 2 RP(Bud Smith mentioned) who they can move. They already signed Holaday to be the Backup C and Pedro Alvarez to be 1B/OF lefty bat

People hate hearing this but next year means NOTHING again. Denbo wants guys who are ready for 2020,Top 5 Pick in 2020 Draft,spend the IFA Cash they got and Mattingly is keeping seat warm for Trey Hillman(Likely)

- - - - - - - - - -

Roster as of Now

C-?/Holaday
1B-O'Brien/Alvarez/Cooper(OF)
2B-Castro
SS-Riddle/Rojas(UT)
3B-Prado
LF-Dean
CF-Brinson/Sierra
RF-BA

SP
Urena
Chen
Straily
Richards
Pablo

RP
Conley
Witt
Steck
Guerrero
Ferrell
Jarlin

AAA-Alcantara

60 Day-Caleb Smith/Julian Fernandez

- - - - - - - - - -

1 spot open(RP) and C spot(2 total)
Sign Jon Jay and Sierra goes to AAA

Could trade Straily,Urena,Conley and replace them easily

I forgot about Maybin. Either way, they should be bringing in more guys on 1-year deals. Even Maybin, who isn’t that good, got them a quality return at the deadline.

[fauowls44]

So against 1 year deals? They signed Maybin LY and were trying on 2 or 3 others

They would love to sign 2 or 3 vets to 1 year deals but the problem is where do they play them? If vets sign 1 year deal they wanna play not sit on the bench for a bad team OR wanna play for a contender. Plus if u wait till Feb/March guys will sign for cheap

Still are looking at a left handed OF(Jon Jay) who can play all 3 spots that they can trade at the deadline and 2 RP(Bud Smith mentioned) who they can move. They already signed Holaday to be the Backup C and Pedro Alvarez to be 1B/OF lefty bat

People hate hearing this but next year means NOTHING again. Denbo wants guys who are ready for 2020,Top 5 Pick in 2020 Draft,spend the IFA Cash they got and Mattingly is keeping seat warm for Trey Hillman(Likely)

- - - - - - - - - -

Roster as of Now

C-?/Holaday
1B-O'Brien/Alvarez/Cooper(OF)
2B-Castro
SS-Riddle/Rojas(UT)
3B-Prado
LF-Dean
CF-Brinson/Sierra
RF-BA

SP
Urena
Chen
Straily
Richards
Pablo

RP
Conley
Witt
Steck
Guerrero
Ferrell
Jarlin

AAA-Alcantara

60 Day-Caleb Smith/Julian Fernandez

- - - - - - - - - -

1 spot open(RP) and C spot(2 total)
Sign Jon Jay and Sierra goes to AAA

Could trade Straily,Urena,Conley and replace them easily

Since they are trying to get some MLB ready pieces for JT, it would make sense that they haven’t signed anyone yet. They need to take care of that first...hopefully that’ll come together after the Christmas passes.

[fish16]

I forgot about Maybin. Either way, they should be bringing in more guys on 1-year deals. Even Maybin, who isn’t that good, got them a quality return at the deadline.

Agreed with this, but it’s also way too early in the offseason for that criticism. Especially given how slow the market has been to develop for free agents the last few years. I’d wait til late January or February and then try to grab a 1b, outfielder or 2, and then a couple relievers

[flamarlins93]

So against 1 year deals? They signed Maybin LY and were trying on 2 or 3 others

They would love to sign 2 or 3 vets to 1 year deals but the problem is where do they play them? If vets sign 1 year deal they wanna play not sit on the bench for a bad team OR wanna play for a contender. Plus if u wait till Feb/March guys will sign for cheap

Still are looking at a left handed OF(Jon Jay) who can play all 3 spots that they can trade at the deadline and 2 RP(Bud Smith mentioned) who they can move. They already signed Holaday to be the Backup C and Pedro Alvarez to be 1B/OF lefty bat

People hate hearing this but next year means NOTHING again. Denbo wants guys who are ready for 2020,Top 5 Pick in 2020 Draft,spend the IFA Cash they got and Mattingly is keeping seat warm for Trey Hillman(Likely)

We all know next year means nothing and probably the year after that as well. That is why you try and sign a few veterans to start not sit the bench with the full intention of trading them at the deadline. Who is better then even Jon Jay of the current Marlins outfielders other then Brian Anderson? You could send any of the others down to the minors for half a year to work on whatever they need to and get back a prospect or two or IFA cash (which will probably be a few years yet before they are able to start using it anyhow). IF Pedro Alvarez is their big move to add power that is pathetic he couldn't even cut it with the Orioles. I am not saying I want them to go out and spend big money on free agents but given the fact that the payroll keeps going down and unless they are using that money to pay off the hundreds of millions that the team is in debt they could sign a few moderate priced guys with the full intention of trading them for more minor league depth. If they do trade them they don't have to pay their full contract anyhow.

Also other then building up this team from the ground up what is the big plan that everyone is banking on to make this team a big league club again? Most of their tradeable assets are gone now and to this point they added depth to the minors however the farm system is still in the bottom third due to lack of impact talent. Hopefully they are able to build up international player relationships but even if they do that will take a few years to come to fruition. So the whole future of this team is dependent on the draft or multiple prospects becoming much more then expected. I truly believe that they hurt their trade leverage last year with the trades they made other then the Gordon trade and of course Stanton (due to no trade) they settled for less then optimal packages back. They prioritized getting minor league depth over getting a better prospect back. They also made it clear that if someone wanted to be traded or no longer be with the team they would do their best to move them. Now teams know they will deal guys for lesser return and are now offering them less knowing that eventually they will give in and take an offer. The Marlins are trying to play hardball with the JT trade but teams aren't desperate enough to give them a legit offer. They know eventually they are going to cave and take the best offer eventually.

- - - - - - - - - -

Picks aren't set yet(other than 4)but I could see us 5 or 6 guys in Top 30 especially if Denbo goes with BPA again
The IFA/Cuban guys are gonna be interesting. Other than Puason(Oakland) no mentions of others yet but we have 5 million to spend

Did Denbo go BPA with the Yankees? He didn't with the Marlins last year if they had the minors would be in much better shape if they had. To me last years draft was one of the worst in recent history. They only drafted a couple of starting pitchers and concentrated on light hitting middle infielders and outfielders, right handed relief pitchers and high school catchers. I like the Banfield and Pompey picks however other then those two I don't see much impact coming from it.

[lou]

We all know next year means nothing and probably the year after that as well. That is why you try and sign a few veterans to start not sit the bench with the full intention of trading them at the deadline. Who is better then even Jon Jay of the current Marlins outfielders other then Brian Anderson? You could send any of the others down to the minors for half a year to work on whatever they need to and get back a prospect or two or IFA cash (which will probably be a few years yet before they are able to start using it anyhow). IF Pedro Alvarez is their big move to add power that is pathetic he couldn't even cut it with the Orioles. I am not saying I want them to go out and spend big money on free agents but given the fact that the payroll keeps going down and unless they are using that money to pay off the hundreds of millions that the team is in debt they could sign a few moderate priced guys with the full intention of trading them for more minor league depth. If they do trade them they don't have to pay their full contract anyhow.

I think it's a bit early in the off-season to worry about 1 year deals (all of baseball free agency is slow this year), but they definitely need a C (assuming Realmuto traded), two OF, and maybe a reliever who will get saves to deflect arbitration numbers.

C - Veteran, Wallach (it's fine to give him backup AB)
1B - Cooper, O'Brien (it's fine to give them AB and see what happens, Cooper could surprise, O'Brien ended strong)
2B - Castro
SS - Riddle, Rojas (definitely fine to give them AB, Riddle could surprise with RHP/defense splits, Rojas is solid stopgap)
3B - Prado (I mean you reluctantly have to give him AB to see if he is healthy to move in June)
LF - Veteran
CF - Brinson (he really has nothing left to prove so I don't have a problem keeping him up at this point), Veteran
RF - Anderson

SP - Urena, Chen, Straily (obviously), Alcantara, Ca.Smith/Richards/Pablo (they are all fine to start giving innings)
RP - Veteran (for saves if they want but this one doesn't matter), Steckenrider, Conley, Wittgren, Guerrero, Ferrell (these guys are out of options or Rule V), and the leftovers of Ca.Smith/Richards/Pablo and guys like Anderson/Kinley/Garcia (all fine to give MLB innings)

And that doesn't include some MLB assets may come back with Realmuto, and basically keeps Dean and Sierra in AAA which really needs to happen.

Still free agents:

C - Wieters, Maldonado, LuCroy, Mesoraco, Hundley, Ellis - any would be fine

OF - A bit harder, Dietrich is a head scratcher here even with the bad defense. He's what they need. I would assume they will look at a pool of guys like John Jay, Robbie Grossman, Carlos Gomaez, Curtis Granderson, Hunter Pence, Melky Cabrera, etc. and just promise AB to a guy who needs them with the understanding they get flipped at the deadline. I guess they figure these guys will come in cheaper than Dietrich.

RP - Maybe you take a flyer on Greg Holland, Tyler Clippard, old friend AJ Ramos, etc. There are 20 names that could make sense that have gotten saves before they can try and turn into a Ziegler to flip. That being said, I think the value here is not having Steck/Conley/Whoever get saves to keep arbitration down, versus getting a non-top 30 "Mills" or "Eveld" prospect which isn't moving the needle much.

[lou]

Also other then building up this team from the ground up what is the big plan that everyone is banking on to make this team a big league club again? Most of their tradeable assets are gone now and to this point they added depth to the minors however the farm system is still in the bottom third due to lack of impact talent. Hopefully they are able to build up international player relationships but even if they do that will take a few years to come to fruition. So the whole future of this team is dependent on the draft or multiple prospects becoming much more then expected. I truly believe that they hurt their trade leverage last year with the trades they made other then the Gordon trade and of course Stanton (due to no trade) they settled for less then optimal packages back. They prioritized getting minor league depth over getting a better prospect back. They also made it clear that if someone wanted to be traded or no longer be with the team they would do their best to move them. Now teams know they will deal guys for lesser return and are now offering them less knowing that eventually they will give in and take an offer. The Marlins are trying to play hardball with the JT trade but teams aren't desperate enough to give them a legit offer. They know eventually they are going to cave and take the best offer eventually.

I think the immediate plan is something like this, assuming 2021:

C - _____, _____
1B - ______, Cooper/O'Brien (let's say they get a backup here)
2B - Diaz
SS - ______, Riddle
3B - Anderson
LF - ______, Sierra/Miller/Brinson/Monte/Ramirez/Dean (let's say 1 turns into a good backup)
CF - VVM
RF - Brinson/Monte (let's say one fails)

Call that around 10 WAR and $12 million (Anderson, Riddle, and Brinson will be in arbitration making small amounts)

SP - _____, ______, Urena, Neidert, Pablo/Gallen/Yamamoto

Call that 5 WAR, and $24 million (Urena will be in last year arbitration, including Chen's dead $16 million)

RHP - Alcantara, Guzman, E. Cabrera, Richards, Holloway (or pick your other RHP favorites - Ferrell, Yamamoto, Guerrero, Anderson, Kinley, Keller, Beggs, Eveld, etc.)
LHP - Ca. Smith, _____, Quijada/Garcia/Mills/Lee (one of the lefties works out)

Call that 5 WAR (I am deferring to Denbo knowing how to make a bullpen and how I'm putting all the higher end prospect arms, Smith, and Richards, into the pen) and call this $5 million.

Now, let's say I am wrong, put all trade assets of Steckenrider, Conley, Castro, Straily, Wittgren, Rojas, etc. and new Rule V and low level acquisitions (Richards, Ca. Smith, etc.) onto the above to get you there. Either way, I'm giving this incredibly low expectations where it'll be hard not to get to the 20 WAR threshold, and likely no one has broke out. I mean, if we just look at last year, Anderson, Riddle, Urena, Ca. Smith, and Richards themselves got 8.3 WAR and I'll take my chances the others can pitch in on nominal levels.

That's 17 guys, and 20 WAR, for basically $40 million. It's very uninspiring what they actually have in-house right now for presumable 2021 ready guys.

But, the silver lining:

1 - Realmuto Trade is likely to bring big assets (I disagree with the pessimism, they will do good here. He is very valuable)
2 - Payroll is outrageously low, you can do a lot with it.
3 - You have built up theoretically a strong farm (holdovers-Rogers, Garret, Devers; 2018-Scott, Osiris, Pompey, Banfield); 2019 (three top 50 picks, IFA); and 2020 (likely two top 40 picks, IFA), you can move in trades ala Yelich, what the Yankees did with Paxton, as your team above is really really club controlled

That could add a lot fast. But of course, you have to take the leap of faith they will get a good deal for Realmuto and will draft/acquire well.

If they do it right, it could be 2021. If they do it wrong, it's waiting on 18/19/20 drafts and circling 2023.

[Lee Stone]

Coin tosses for 2019.

50-50 odds that:

Austin Dean is opening day left fielder.
B. Anderson plays more games in RF or 3B.
Brinson plays 100 games in CF
Starlin Castro opens 2019 as Marlin
sub 4.00 ERA for Straily
Lopez
C Smith
T Richards
Chen
Alcantara
Steckenrider is closer
B Miller or V Mesa has the better minor league season
M Harrison has 200 whiffs
Brinson hits over .200
Marlins win 58 games.

[fish16]

God I hope they just bite the bullet with Prado and don’t force feed him ab’s in the hope that he reclaims some trade value because that’s simply not gonna happen. Put Anderson at 3b and sign a couple veteran of’s To give the upper level minor league of’s more time to develop and have prado in a utility role or put Anderson in rf if we trade for a guy like Austin Riley in a deal. I said it at the time but the prado deal is exactly why you don’t fucking act emotionally when you run a professional sports team. It was abundantly obvious that the prado deal was resigning him at the top of his value when he was clearly going to age and regress in the seasons to come

[tjfla]

I think the immediate plan is something like this, assuming 2021:

C - _____, _____
1B - ______, Cooper/O'Brien (let's say they get a backup here)
2B - Diaz
SS - ______, Riddle
3B - Anderson
LF - ______, Sierra/Miller/Brinson/Monte/Ramirez/Dean (let's say 1 turns into a good backup)
CF - VVM
RF - Brinson/Monte (let's say one fails)

Call that around 10 WAR and $12 million (Anderson, Riddle, and Brinson will be in arbitration making small amounts)

SP - _____, ______, Urena, Neidert, Pablo/Gallen/Yamamoto

Call that 5 WAR, and $24 million (Urena will be in last year arbitration, including Chen's dead $16 million)

RHP - Alcantara, Guzman, E. Cabrera, Richards, Holloway (or pick your other RHP favorites - Ferrell, Yamamoto, Guerrero, Anderson, Kinley, Keller, Beggs, Eveld, etc.)
LHP - Ca. Smith, _____, Quijada/Garcia/Mills/Lee (one of the lefties works out)

Call that 5 WAR (I am deferring to Denbo knowing how to make a bullpen and how I'm putting all the higher end prospect arms, Smith, and Richards, into the pen) and call this $5 million.

Now, let's say I am wrong, put all trade assets of Steckenrider, Conley, Castro, Straily, Wittgren, Rojas, etc. and new Rule V and low level acquisitions (Richards, Ca. Smith, etc.) onto the above to get you there. Either way, I'm giving this incredibly low expectations where it'll be hard not to get to the 20 WAR threshold, and likely no one has broke out. I mean, if we just look at last year, Anderson, Riddle, Urena, Ca. Smith, and Richards themselves got 8.3 WAR and I'll take my chances the others can pitch in on nominal levels.

That's 17 guys, and 20 WAR, for basically $40 million. It's very uninspiring what they actually have in-house right now for presumable 2021 ready guys.

But, the silver lining:

1 - Realmuto Trade is likely to bring big assets (I disagree with the pessimism, they will do good here. He is very valuable)
2 - Payroll is outrageously low, you can do a lot with it.
3 - You have built up theoretically a strong farm (holdovers-Rogers, Garret, Devers; 2018-Scott, Osiris, Pompey, Banfield); 2019 (three top 50 picks, IFA); and 2020 (likely two top 40 picks, IFA), you can move in trades ala Yelich, what the Yankees did with Paxton, as your team above is really really club controlled

That could add a lot fast. But of course, you have to take the leap of faith they will get a good deal for Realmuto and will draft/acquire well.

If they do it right, it could be 2021. If they do it wrong, it's waiting on 18/19/20 drafts and circling 2023.

Will be interesting to see what they do in the draft this year. Could go for 2021 Major League Ready 1B Vaughn OR the 2 Catchers which would fill voids. I would love for us to take a College C at #4 then at #35 jump on College SS like Davidson OR Shewmake. Move them both quickly and see how they do like Pompey

Also we don't have much in IFA for 2019 so maybe we try for Cubans? No clue who the "best" under 24 yrs old are but wouldn't be surprised if we are connected to them ALL as we got 5 million to spend at least. 2020 is when our IFA should pick up since none of them are committed

- - - - - - - - - -

They have stuck to the plan however and are still on track for 2020/21.

[fish16]

this JT deal is starting to feel like the yelich deal last year in the sense that it seemed like a deal would occur a few weeks back, then things quiet down a lot, and then i wouldnt be surprised to see a deal just pop up out of nowhere from a team that hasnt been talked about much similar to how the brewers got yelich.

[rmc523]

this JT deal is starting to feel like the yelich deal last year in the sense that it seemed like a deal would occur a few weeks back, then things quiet down a lot, and then i wouldnt be surprised to see a deal just pop up out of nowhere from a team that hasnt been talked about much similar to how the brewers got yelich.

As long as we do better than the Yelich deal, who cares who it's with/how "public" it is.

[fish16]

As long as we do better than the Yelich deal, who cares who it's with/how "public" it is.

I dont care at all, just noting that it feels similar and i wouldnt be surprised to see a deal come out of nowhere from a team no one was talking about.

[Lee Stone]

Kind of surprised that no teams are reported to be sniffing out Urena or Straily additions. Urena gave up no runs vs Tampa Bay last July 4. Pairing Urena with Realmuto might open the door to a five prospect grab from the Rays.

[fish16]

Kind of surprised that no teams are reported to be sniffing out Urena or Straily additions. Urena gave up no runs vs Tampa Bay last July 4. Pairing Urena with Realmuto might open the door to a five prospect grab from the Rays.

no team will give a flying fuck that urena pitched well against them one time last season. Straily will likely be moved closer to spring after free agency is over with. Urena likely wont be moved this offseason.