2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Unless we get a catcher in a jt deal we will regret not trying to get lucroy on a buy low sea for a year or two

[flamarlins93]

Unless we get a catcher in a jt deal we will regret not trying to get lucroy on a buy low sea for a year or two

So if they go with Holladay or another stop gap instead of getting a stop gap back in a trade the Marlins are going to lose more? Unless the catcher they get back in any Realmuto trade is going to hold the possibility of being a above average starting catcher I think they should worry more about getting the best return possible even if it means not getting a catcher in the trade.

[Namaste]

Unless we get a catcher in a jt deal we will regret not trying to get lucroy on a buy low sea for a year or two

Regret not having Lucroy for next years 97 loss season? Who cares?

[Lee Stone]

Regret not having Lucroy for next years 97 loss season? Who cares?

There is no fountain of youth ... hoping that older guys will suddenly start playing like their younger selves just isn't realistic.

[tjfla]

The Angels signed Lucroy to a one year deal.

So LAA and LAD are going for it ALL with Lucroy and ? as their C. Same with Washington. These 3 teams refuse to pay for JT

[fauowls44]

So LAA and LAD are going for it ALL with Lucroy and ? as their C. Same with Washington. These 3 teams refuse to pay for JT

Exactly. Same with Houston too. If you are a contender, it is ridiculous to me that they would refuse to meet the prospect demands to get JT cheap for 2 years.

[fish16]

Regret not having Lucroy for next years 97 loss season? Who cares?

Regret not filling a position of need for cheap with the chance to turn into a piece you can flip in july

[flamarlins93]

Regret not filling a position of need for cheap with the chance to turn into a piece you can flip in july

I almost bet that even if the Marlins would have offered him a few million dollars more he still wouldn't have signed with Miami. The only way I believe that Lucroy would have been willing to sign is if the Marlins offered more and multiple years otherwise I don't think he would have signed. The only way the Marlins are going to get a vet at this point is if they are super cheap and have no other options. Otherwise honestly why would FA come here knowing how bad this team is going to be for the foreseeable future. I worry that they are going to have to overpay in the future just to convince anyone to come to Miami. Sad but given this team's history can't blame them.

[tjfla]

1. J.T. Realmuto, C, Marlins — Those teams still trying to obtain him remain in disbelief at the asking price for the All-Star. We had heard the price had come down a bit, and maybe it has slightly, but it is still making a deal prohibitive. The Marlins seem to think there will be a market for Realmuto indefinitely, and that one team will cave to their demands. The Padres have been the most persistent.

Have heard same thing which is why SD is trying to trade Hedges for a SP. SD and Miami have exchanged names and all but SD would like to get a BIG type SP before they do anything

[lou]

Who cares about LuCroy. There are 4-5 other interesting catchers (Wieters, Maldonado, Mesoraco, Hundley, etc.) still around and it's a dart throw who ends up being the best next year. They should be waiting on all of them and be opportunistic when they can get one for as cheap as possible. Likewise, they probably will get some sort of catcher in the Realmuto deal.

As for "over-paying," they have the payroll bandwidth starting in 20/21 to give the "Jayson Werth" contract (i.e., a vast overpay to show everyone in baseball you intend to contend) and not have an extra few million per year on a deal impact things. Likewise, over-paying assumes there is a hard budget at the top. It's not like the Marlins are teetering on luxury tax expenditures, or anything. I will refrain from posting my typical roster breakdown, but there is legitimately no way they aren't filling 18-20 spots on the 25 man roster for $40 millionish in 2021, that number isn't creeping up in 2022 because that 2021 number includes Chen who is then off the books, and the number isn't creeping up in 2023-24, because expensive relievers, Urena, and moderate performers will be gone by then, and replaced by 2018/2019/maybe 2020 draft classes who will be in the minors for 4+ years by then. They legit have an amazing payroll situation moving forward with their internal team, which should be a good core despite being absent some stars. Of course, that internal team needs 4+ great players to add on top of them which is the problem.

So this brings you to the whole "I worry that they are going to have to overpay in the future just to convince anyone to come to Miami." Who gives a shit? They only have to do that deal once, just like the Nationals. Once that happens, and you have a contending team, everything falls in line and you are now a desired location.

How about my dream scenario as an example. Xander is going to be 27 years old and a free agent next offseason. He's averaged a 4.4 WAR the last 4 seasons, and projected to be a 4.3 next year. He's super safe with his defense, and even if that slows down, he has power upside and could go all "Yelich" on baseball one of these years. He's from Aruba so this is the closest he can be to home.

Give him 6/$210 for his age 27-32. Which is the highest annual value of any player in MLB history (but for, Harper and Machado beating that). It's more than Trout, and no state income tax. Let him be a free agent again at 33 to try and cash in again. Boras will love it. He's often all about the most per year and not necessarily the length. This pushes the envelope up for all of his future clients as Xander, while a superstar, isn't the best superstar, and can be used as a comp.

So now the Marlins have a rock solid 20+ guys on their roster and it costs $75 million instead of $70 million. Over-pay away that deal and it means nothing to their flexibility.

[flamarlins93]

Who cares about LuCroy. There are 4-5 other interesting catchers (Wieters, Maldonado, Mesoraco, Hundley, etc.) still around and it's a dart throw who ends up being the best next year. They should be waiting on all of them and be opportunistic when they can get one for as cheap as possible. Likewise, they probably will get some sort of catcher in the Realmuto deal.

As for "over-paying," they have the payroll bandwidth starting in 20/21 to give the "Jayson Werth" contract (i.e., a vast overpay to show everyone in baseball you intend to contend) and not have an extra few million per year on a deal impact things. Likewise, over-paying assumes there is a hard budget at the top. It's not like the Marlins are teetering on luxury tax expenditures, or anything. I will refrain from posting my typical roster breakdown, but there is legitimately no way they aren't filling 18-20 spots on the 25 man roster for $40 millionish in 2021, that number isn't creeping up in 2022 because that 2021 number includes Chen who is then off the books, and the number isn't creeping up in 2023-24, because expensive relievers, Urena, and moderate performers will be gone by then, and replaced by 2018/2019/maybe 2020 draft classes who will be in the minors for 4+ years by then. They legit have an amazing payroll situation moving forward with their internal team, which should be a good core despite being absent some stars. Of course, that internal team needs 4+ great players to add on top of them which is the problem.

So this brings you to the whole "I worry that they are going to have to overpay in the future just to convince anyone to come to Miami." Who gives a shit? They only have to do that deal once, just like the Nationals. Once that happens, and you have a contending team, everything falls in line and you are now a desired location.

How about my dream scenario as an example. Xander is going to be 27 years old and a free agent next offseason. He's averaged a 4.4 WAR the last 4 seasons, and projected to be a 4.3 next year. He's super safe with his defense, and even if that slows down, he has power upside and could go all "Yelich" on baseball one of these years. He's from Aruba so this is the closest he can be to home.

Give him 6/$210 for his age 27-32. Which is the highest annual value of any player in MLB history (but for, Harper and Machado beating that). It's more than Trout, and no state income tax. Let him be a free agent again at 33 to try and cash in again. Boras will love it. He's often all about the most per year and not necessarily the length. This pushes the envelope up for all of his future clients as Xander, while a superstar, isn't the best superstar, and can be used as a comp.

So now the Marlins have a rock solid 20+ guys on their roster and it costs $75 million instead of $70 million. Over-pay away that deal and it means nothing to their flexibility.

We know nothing about how these new owners are going to operate. Even with no payroll on the books and Chen gone as well who says they will spend any money and not just hope to build from within? This team is so deep in debt spending big on a guy next year really doesn't make a lot of sense with so few chips that are going to be ready to play around them. Unless guys overachieve there are so many holes on the big league roster one guy will not make a huge difference. The minor league system is now deeper but is still close to the bottom due to lack of potential impact talent. I honestly can't say when they will be able to start to turn things around. The draft and the JT trade are all that is left to improve the situation. If they have to rely on the draft for now it is going to take awhile even if they do great there and hit on multiple guys since the draft is largely a crap shoot. Just because the team is no where near the luxury tax doesn't mean they ever will be. I fully expect at the best for the team to try and operate around the $100 million area so if adding Xander gets you to $75 million that leaves around $25 million to fill out the rest of the roster. Thinking this team will ever be among the top spenders and near the tax threshold is a pipe dream. We honestly have no idea what their plans or numbers are.

[lou]

We know nothing about how these new owners are going to operate. Even with no payroll on the books and Chen gone as well who says they will spend any money and not just hope to build from within? This team is so deep in debt spending big on a guy next year really doesn't make a lot of sense with so few chips that are going to be ready to play around them. Unless guys overachieve there are so many holes on the big league roster one guy will not make a huge difference. The minor league system is now deeper but is still close to the bottom due to lack of potential impact talent. I honestly can't say when they will be able to start to turn things around. The draft and the JT trade are all that is left to improve the situation. If they have to rely on the draft for now it is going to take awhile even if they do great there and hit on multiple guys since the draft is largely a crap shoot. Just because the team is no where near the luxury tax doesn't mean they ever will be. I fully expect at the best for the team to try and operate around the $100 million area so if adding Xander gets you to $75 million that leaves around $25 million to fill out the rest of the roster. Thinking this team will ever be among the top spenders and near the tax threshold is a pipe dream. We honestly have no idea what their plans or numbers are.

I disagree there are only a few chips to play around (by 2021), but signing someone next year is a year early to get ready for 2021. I'm not saying that's going to happen, I was just giving an example of how you can overspend and it means nothing to their flexibility. If they are relying on the draft only, it's easily 2023 absent major breakouts. I cannot fathom spending a billion dollars and throwing in the towel for 2018-2022. These guys are still running a business and they know they have to create a fan base even if there is debt. It's just not going to happen where the only free agents they spend money on for 5 years are Cameron Maybin types.

2019 is going to be a pure loss and another fight to not lose 100. Who cares what they do with free agents, there is no crawling out of this hole. This year is just like last year, acquire as much talent as possible so you can have a very cheap club controlled team for years and years, and spend when you're ready, which is basically 2020 or 2021 depending on how things go.

I don't think it's unreasonable to think they have a $100 million payroll in 2021. They basically did that in 2018.

[tjfla]

We know nothing about how these new owners are going to operate. Even with no payroll on the books and Chen gone as well who says they will spend any money and not just hope to build from within? This team is so deep in debt spending big on a guy next year really doesn't make a lot of sense with so few chips that are going to be ready to play around them. Unless guys overachieve there are so many holes on the big league roster one guy will not make a huge difference. The minor league system is now deeper but is still close to the bottom due to lack of potential impact talent. I honestly can't say when they will be able to start to turn things around. The draft and the JT trade are all that is left to improve the situation. If they have to rely on the draft for now it is going to take awhile even if they do great there and hit on multiple guys since the draft is largely a crap shoot. Just because the team is no where near the luxury tax doesn't mean they ever will be. I fully expect at the best for the team to try and operate around the $100 million area so if adding Xander gets you to $75 million that leaves around $25 million to fill out the rest of the roster. Thinking this team will ever be among the top spenders and near the tax threshold is a pipe dream. We honestly have no idea what their plans or numbers are.

According to "plan" 2020/21 payroll will be between 90-110 million and from lou's work right now we have like 40 million spent. Means between 50-70 million to spend on whatever. This is why u see them trying to add ML ready guys who will be here in 2020-have guys in ML spots and fill in with C(until Banfield or 1 drafted this year is ready)/#1 SP/SS in FA. 50 million to spend on a #1 SP/SS and C Vet to Mentor a young C can be easily seen which is there PLAN!!!!

When I say PLAN I mean what Jeter and Sherman presented to MLB when they wanted to buy the team

But ya 2019 is a LOST year just like 2018 was -Goal is get a Top 3 Pick in 2020 Draft/add or find guys who will be ML Ready in 2020/try to get some IFA players(Cubans) who could be something and get Trey Hillman ready to be the Manager

2018 and 2019 were always gonna be lost years which everyone but Marlins fans seem to realize

[lou]

According to "plan" 2020/21 payroll will be between 90-110 million and from lou's work right now we have like 40 million spent. Means between 50-70 million to spend on whatever. This is why u see them trying to add ML ready guys who will be here in 2020-have guys in ML spots and fill in with C(until Banfield or 1 drafted this year is ready)/#1 SP/SS in FA. 50 million to spend on a #1 SP/SS and C Vet to Mentor a young C can be easily seen which is there PLAN!!!!

When I say PLAN I mean what Jeter and Sherman presented to MLB when they wanted to buy the team

But ya 2019 is a LOST year just like 2018 was -Goal is get a Top 3 Pick in 2020 Draft/add or find guys who will be ML Ready in 2020/try to get some IFA players(Cubans) who could be something and get Trey Hillman ready to be the Manager

2018 and 2019 were always gonna be lost years which everyone but Marlins fans seem to realize

Yep. It's coming, I just don't know if it's 2020 or 2021. Practically, it makes sense to sign 1 longterm guy (the "Werth Overpay" signing), and a few legitimate (not Maybin, but not great) 1 year guys in 2020 to put a solidish team around all of the kids so they start sniffing success, and then in 2021 sign another long term guy (tons of high end SP will be available) and better 1-2 year players (like what the Rays did with Morton) when ideally everyone has their feet wet and they are theoretically ready to be competitive.

2019, who cares. Be opportunistic and sign 1 year John Jay and Nick Hundleys late. Get good 2020 picks. Do well in the Realmuto trade and deadline RP trades. Be opportunistic in acquisitions at all levels and find more Ca. Smith/Richards types.

Reassess October 1st

[Lee Stone]

Why TB is the right trade partner:
1) They are trying to win now
2) They have excess in their farm system
3) Marlins could net at least three future starters at three positions (catcher, ss, 2b or OF)

Getting Tucker, pretty much alone, doesn't accomplish much
While the Dodgers might give up W Smith and Verdugo or Lux, I highly doubt they would have net benefit of a Rays package.