Unless we get a catcher in a jt deal we will regret not trying to get lucroy on a buy low sea for a year or two
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Originally posted by fish16 View PostUnless we get a catcher in a jt deal we will regret not trying to get lucroy on a buy low sea for a year or two
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Originally posted by tjfla View PostSo LAA and LAD are going for it ALL with Lucroy and ? as their C.Same with Washington. These 3 teams refuse to pay for JT
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Originally posted by fish16 View PostRegret not filling a position of need for cheap with the chance to turn into a piece you can flip in july
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1. J.T. Realmuto, C, Marlins — Those teams still trying to obtain him remain in disbelief at the asking price for the All-Star. We had heard the price had come down a bit, and maybe it has slightly, but it is still making a deal prohibitive. The Marlins seem to think there will be a market for Realmuto indefinitely, and that one team will cave to their demands. The Padres have been the most persistent.
Have heard same thing which is why SD is trying to trade Hedges for a SP. SD and Miami have exchanged names and all but SD would like to get a BIG type SP before they do anything
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Who cares about LuCroy. There are 4-5 other interesting catchers (Wieters, Maldonado, Mesoraco, Hundley, etc.) still around and it's a dart throw who ends up being the best next year. They should be waiting on all of them and be opportunistic when they can get one for as cheap as possible. Likewise, they probably will get some sort of catcher in the Realmuto deal.
As for "over-paying," they have the payroll bandwidth starting in 20/21 to give the "Jayson Werth" contract (i.e., a vast overpay to show everyone in baseball you intend to contend) and not have an extra few million per year on a deal impact things. Likewise, over-paying assumes there is a hard budget at the top. It's not like the Marlins are teetering on luxury tax expenditures, or anything. I will refrain from posting my typical roster breakdown, but there is legitimately no way they aren't filling 18-20 spots on the 25 man roster for $40 millionish in 2021, that number isn't creeping up in 2022 because that 2021 number includes Chen who is then off the books, and the number isn't creeping up in 2023-24, because expensive relievers, Urena, and moderate performers will be gone by then, and replaced by 2018/2019/maybe 2020 draft classes who will be in the minors for 4+ years by then. They legit have an amazing payroll situation moving forward with their internal team, which should be a good core despite being absent some stars. Of course, that internal team needs 4+ great players to add on top of them which is the problem.
So this brings you to the whole "I worry that they are going to have to overpay in the future just to convince anyone to come to Miami." Who gives a shit? They only have to do that deal once, just like the Nationals. Once that happens, and you have a contending team, everything falls in line and you are now a desired location.
How about my dream scenario as an example. Xander is going to be 27 years old and a free agent next offseason. He's averaged a 4.4 WAR the last 4 seasons, and projected to be a 4.3 next year. He's super safe with his defense, and even if that slows down, he has power upside and could go all "Yelich" on baseball one of these years. He's from Aruba so this is the closest he can be to home.
Give him 6/$210 for his age 27-32. Which is the highest annual value of any player in MLB history (but for, Harper and Machado beating that). It's more than Trout, and no state income tax. Let him be a free agent again at 33 to try and cash in again. Boras will love it. He's often all about the most per year and not necessarily the length. This pushes the envelope up for all of his future clients as Xander, while a superstar, isn't the best superstar, and can be used as a comp.
So now the Marlins have a rock solid 20+ guys on their roster and it costs $75 million instead of $70 million. Over-pay away that deal and it means nothing to their flexibility.
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Originally posted by lou View PostWho cares about LuCroy. There are 4-5 other interesting catchers (Wieters, Maldonado, Mesoraco, Hundley, etc.) still around and it's a dart throw who ends up being the best next year. They should be waiting on all of them and be opportunistic when they can get one for as cheap as possible. Likewise, they probably will get some sort of catcher in the Realmuto deal.
As for "over-paying," they have the payroll bandwidth starting in 20/21 to give the "Jayson Werth" contract (i.e., a vast overpay to show everyone in baseball you intend to contend) and not have an extra few million per year on a deal impact things. Likewise, over-paying assumes there is a hard budget at the top. It's not like the Marlins are teetering on luxury tax expenditures, or anything. I will refrain from posting my typical roster breakdown, but there is legitimately no way they aren't filling 18-20 spots on the 25 man roster for $40 millionish in 2021, that number isn't creeping up in 2022 because that 2021 number includes Chen who is then off the books, and the number isn't creeping up in 2023-24, because expensive relievers, Urena, and moderate performers will be gone by then, and replaced by 2018/2019/maybe 2020 draft classes who will be in the minors for 4+ years by then. They legit have an amazing payroll situation moving forward with their internal team, which should be a good core despite being absent some stars. Of course, that internal team needs 4+ great players to add on top of them which is the problem.
So this brings you to the whole "I worry that they are going to have to overpay in the future just to convince anyone to come to Miami." Who gives a shit? They only have to do that deal once, just like the Nationals. Once that happens, and you have a contending team, everything falls in line and you are now a desired location.
How about my dream scenario as an example. Xander is going to be 27 years old and a free agent next offseason. He's averaged a 4.4 WAR the last 4 seasons, and projected to be a 4.3 next year. He's super safe with his defense, and even if that slows down, he has power upside and could go all "Yelich" on baseball one of these years. He's from Aruba so this is the closest he can be to home.
Give him 6/$210 for his age 27-32. Which is the highest annual value of any player in MLB history (but for, Harper and Machado beating that). It's more than Trout, and no state income tax. Let him be a free agent again at 33 to try and cash in again. Boras will love it. He's often all about the most per year and not necessarily the length. This pushes the envelope up for all of his future clients as Xander, while a superstar, isn't the best superstar, and can be used as a comp.
So now the Marlins have a rock solid 20+ guys on their roster and it costs $75 million instead of $70 million. Over-pay away that deal and it means nothing to their flexibility.
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Originally posted by flamarlins93 View PostWe know nothing about how these new owners are going to operate. Even with no payroll on the books and Chen gone as well who says they will spend any money and not just hope to build from within? This team is so deep in debt spending big on a guy next year really doesn't make a lot of sense with so few chips that are going to be ready to play around them. Unless guys overachieve there are so many holes on the big league roster one guy will not make a huge difference. The minor league system is now deeper but is still close to the bottom due to lack of potential impact talent. I honestly can't say when they will be able to start to turn things around. The draft and the JT trade are all that is left to improve the situation. If they have to rely on the draft for now it is going to take awhile even if they do great there and hit on multiple guys since the draft is largely a crap shoot. Just because the team is no where near the luxury tax doesn't mean they ever will be. I fully expect at the best for the team to try and operate around the $100 million area so if adding Xander gets you to $75 million that leaves around $25 million to fill out the rest of the roster. Thinking this team will ever be among the top spenders and near the tax threshold is a pipe dream. We honestly have no idea what their plans or numbers are.
2019 is going to be a pure loss and another fight to not lose 100. Who cares what they do with free agents, there is no crawling out of this hole. This year is just like last year, acquire as much talent as possible so you can have a very cheap club controlled team for years and years, and spend when you're ready, which is basically 2020 or 2021 depending on how things go.
I don't think it's unreasonable to think they have a $100 million payroll in 2021. They basically did that in 2018.
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Originally posted by flamarlins93 View PostWe know nothing about how these new owners are going to operate. Even with no payroll on the books and Chen gone as well who says they will spend any money and not just hope to build from within? This team is so deep in debt spending big on a guy next year really doesn't make a lot of sense with so few chips that are going to be ready to play around them. Unless guys overachieve there are so many holes on the big league roster one guy will not make a huge difference. The minor league system is now deeper but is still close to the bottom due to lack of potential impact talent. I honestly can't say when they will be able to start to turn things around. The draft and the JT trade are all that is left to improve the situation. If they have to rely on the draft for now it is going to take awhile even if they do great there and hit on multiple guys since the draft is largely a crap shoot. Just because the team is no where near the luxury tax doesn't mean they ever will be. I fully expect at the best for the team to try and operate around the $100 million area so if adding Xander gets you to $75 million that leaves around $25 million to fill out the rest of the roster. Thinking this team will ever be among the top spenders and near the tax threshold is a pipe dream. We honestly have no idea what their plans or numbers are.
When I say PLAN I mean what Jeter and Sherman presented to MLB when they wanted to buy the team
But ya 2019 is a LOST year just like 2018 was -Goal is get a Top 3 Pick in 2020 Draft/add or find guys who will be ML Ready in 2020/try to get some IFA players(Cubans) who could be something and get Trey Hillman ready to be the Manager
2018 and 2019 were always gonna be lost years which everyone but Marlins fans seem to realizeLast edited by tjfla; 12-31-2018, 09:11 AM.
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Originally posted by tjfla View PostAccording to "plan" 2020/21 payroll will be between 90-110 million and from lou's work right now we have like 40 million spent. Means between 50-70 million to spend on whatever. This is why u see them trying to add ML ready guys who will be here in 2020-have guys in ML spots and fill in with C(until Banfield or 1 drafted this year is ready)/#1 SP/SS in FA. 50 million to spend on a #1 SP/SS and C Vet to Mentor a young C can be easily seen which is there PLAN!!!!
When I say PLAN I mean what Jeter and Sherman presented to MLB when they wanted to buy the team
But ya 2019 is a LOST year just like 2018 was -Goal is get a Top 3 Pick in 2020 Draft/add or find guys who will be ML Ready in 2020/try to get some IFA players(Cubans) who could be something and get Trey Hillman ready to be the Manager
2018 and 2019 were always gonna be lost years which everyone but Marlins fans seem to realize
2019, who cares. Be opportunistic and sign 1 year John Jay and Nick Hundleys late. Get good 2020 picks. Do well in the Realmuto trade and deadline RP trades. Be opportunistic in acquisitions at all levels and find more Ca. Smith/Richards types.
Reassess October 1st
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Why TB is the right trade partner:
1) They are trying to win now
2) They have excess in their farm system
3) Marlins could net at least three future starters at three positions (catcher, ss, 2b or OF)
Getting Tucker, pretty much alone, doesn't accomplish much
While the Dodgers might give up W Smith and Verdugo or Lux, I highly doubt they would have net benefit of a Rays package.
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