2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[sports24/7]

Took a break for 2 weeks of following this shitbird of a team. Back caught up now and they suck.

Want to mention here - maybe Garrett is starting to click. This is very interesting - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-in...axton-garrett/

He's a hold for me. This is a really interesting development if he's turning into something. Plus, never trade 24 year old lefties.

I agree with you on most things, but I don't agree about never trading a young lefty. I wish like hell they'd have traded Rogers last year. Ultimately it's all about value, and selling high. This franchise rarely sells high. If you can get a nice return with Garrett in a deal, I'm taking it. If teams don't buy the small sample size, I'm perfectly fine holding onto him and feeling better about trading other arms in other deals.

Also, I'm not going to quote your whole previous post, which I think is very good overall, but the one thing I want to note is the Marlins say they're going to try Berry out at 3B, but it would be a pretty big shock if he sticks there, and I'd bet they'd even admit that if they were being honest. He's not good there, and even at LSU they had to move him around to try and find a home for him, ultimately DH-ing him quite a bit. He's probably a 1B/DH in the bigs, maybe being passable in a corner OF spot.

As for your other notes, I agree about needs. At SS, we talked a lot about Correa this last offseason, but my real white whale in free agency is Trea Turner. Not sure he gets out of LA, but he's exactly the type of player I think you plant your flag, and pay up for. He also supposedly grew up a Marlins fan.

[sports24/7]

I saw this posted on twitter, and I thought it was a really good assessment of the team overall. Apparently it's from a Joe Sheehan newsletter:

For a while I thought the Marlins were a good team missing some elements. I now think they’re a bad team wrapped around a fantastic starting rotation. They’re at a decision point; you can’t be a good team with a .302 OBP. Kim Ng’s impact on the roster has been minimal and arguably negative. Avisail Garcia, Jacob Stallings, Jesus Aguilar, the Orioles relievers they added just before Opening Day...her work in her first 18 months as GM has been a disappointment. Only the Joey Wendle trade is helping the Marlins win. Ng isn’t the only non-player who isn’t getting it done. Don Mattingly has not developed young hitters like Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz. The Marlins need a reset, one that jettisons the dead weight, including the manager, and turns some of the pitching depth into desperately needed hitters. Alcantara is here to stay, but it’s time to trade Pablo Lopez for a young, impact hitter. Alcantara is here to stay, but it’s time to trade Pablo Lopez for a young, controllable, impact hitter. Garrett Cooper, Jon Berti, Brian Anderson...these players will all be 30 or older next year, are having good years, and can bring back talent. The Marlins can run the deadline by making a hard turn into selling. This is the first big test for Ng.

I agree with pretty much all of this. They cannot delude themselves into thinking they can be a contender with a few moves this year, but have enough pitching, and talent in the upper minors, that if they play their hand correctly, they can be contenders as early as next year. Get as much as you can from the veteran dead weight that's blocking young players right now, giving those guys some time down the stretch to see what they have. I think you have to sell high on Pablo, and get some impact hitting for him. I'd also consider selling Cooper, because even though I think he's a guy that helps you win, if you're not going to pay him in a couple years, get what you can now, and you can replace a guy like that. I don't know that I agree that Mattingly deserves the blame for the lack of development of Sanchez or De La Cruz (I'd actually say the development on DLC has been fine or better), but he's just not a good manager, and needs to go. Get a younger guy who's a forward thinker. I'd also look to trade some of the top level pitching prospects. You have depth there, so turn some of those prospects into bats. I would be willing to include Meyer or Cabrera if you have to. Lastly, it's not mentioned above, but I touched on it in my previous post. Go spend a little bit of money in the offseason. You can go get one impact hitter like a Trae Turner, and a closer without moving up more than a couple of spots on the spending list. If being in the middle third of the league in spending (even the bottom of that group) is asking too much, you probably shouldn't own a team.

[rmc523]

I saw this posted on twitter, and I thought it was a really good assessment of the team overall. Apparently it's from a Joe Sheehan newsletter:



I agree with pretty much all of this. They cannot delude themselves into thinking they can be a contender with a few moves this year, but have enough pitching, and talent in the upper minors, that if they play their hand correctly, they can be contenders as early as next year. Get as much as you can from the veteran dead weight that's blocking young players right now, giving those guys some time down the stretch to see what they have. I think you have to sell high on Pablo, and get some impact hitting for him. I'd also consider selling Cooper, because even though I think he's a guy that helps you win, if you're not going to pay him in a couple years, get what you can now, and you can replace a guy like that. I don't know that I agree that Mattingly deserves the blame for the lack of development of Sanchez or De La Cruz (I'd actually say the development on DLC has been fine or better), but he's just not a good manager, and needs to go. Get a younger guy who's a forward thinker. I'd also look to trade some of the top level pitching prospects. You have depth there, so turn some of those prospects into bats. I would be willing to include Meyer or Cabrera if you have to. Lastly, it's not mentioned above, but I touched on it in my previous post. Go spend a little bit of money in the offseason. You can go get one impact hitter like a Trae Turner, and a closer without moving up more than a couple of spots on the spending list. If being in the middle third of the league in spending (even the bottom of that group) is asking too much, you probably shouldn't own a team.

id push back on that last line of that quote of this being the first big test for Ng. The first big test was the offseason, and she got an F. D- at best.

[fish16]

completely agree that this team needs a reset at the deadline. pablo for multiple hitters needs to happen. he's 2 years from free agency and his value will never be higher, plus he's not expensive so there really wouldn't be a limit to the teams interested in him. DFA/deal Aguilar, Bullpen arms, bring up Bleday and Lewin, and see if you can get rid of garcia, even if you have to throw in a prospect (doubt anyone goes for that). But none of the plans work without Sherman opening the wallet and spending on a huge bat this offseason in free agency. Correa could not fit more perfectly and his deal would give us a huge 3 or so year window to win.

[fish16]

teams that make the most sense for Pablo: Dodgers, Padres, or Cardinals. both have premium top prospects not far from the majors. Abrams, Walker, and the dodgers have cartaya who is a year behind those guys but plays the premium catcher position. Campusano also from the padres is a guy I could see being in a deal. Doubt they trade abrams for Pablo.

[sports24/7]

teams that make the most sense for Pablo: Dodgers, Padres, or Cardinals. both have premium top prospects not far from the majors. Abrams, Walker, and the dodgers have cartaya who is a year behind those guys but plays the premium catcher position. Campusano also from the padres is a guy I could see being in a deal. Doubt they trade abrams for Pablo.

Somewhere I saw a proposal of Cartaya and Pages for Pablo. I like that on value, but I do wonder if they’d want players closer to the bigs.

[fish16]

Somewhere I saw a proposal of Cartaya and Pages for Pablo. I like that on value, but I do wonder if they’d want players closer to the bigs.

if the bat they get is more than a year away like cartaya, I would need 1 more AAA piece that could join the big league lineup right away. Obviously you want the guy who is ML ready, but there arent a ton of those at the C position. It's why I have wanted Campusano from the padres for a while. you don't find high ceiling catchers who are ML ready often. When they do get traded, its for stars like Scherzer.

[lou]

Random Trade idea:

Yankees get: Pablo Lopez and Jorge Soler

Marlins get: Anthony Volpe and Everson Pereira

They won't trade Volpe unless they get Sandy.

But Peraza and Pereira probably works as a basis for Pablo. Probably needs a good third prospect, and maybe they swap Britton/Gallo for Soler (which assuming Soler is not an opt out, sheds $16+ million). You can see them wanting Cooper also. The Yankees have the goods so it's a good match to me if you can get Peraza who they love.

[lou]

Elieser Hernandez has like an ERA over 4 and 750 OPS against in innings 1 thru 3. For his career as a reliever he has an ERA over 6 and OPS against over 800. I dont know why you like him so much and insist on inserting him into all of your roster projections. He is objectively not good. And it's not like he has electric stuff. You tend to be pretty on point but you have a weird blind spot here and it is baffling that you think he can be a "weapon".

Important to note this is the 12th or 13th P on the staff you're talking about here and riling you up. Analytics crowd really likes him, for instance - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/deep-l...heaney-flexen/

He's the guy you just keep around and hope he turns into Hand/Wittgren/Eovaldi/Cimber for you and not someone else. He's a guy the Rays scoop up and get s 1+ WAR season out of the bullpen you know. I think he needs a big second half to stick around, but there is real arm talent here and I still wouldn't write him off, even if they should have sent him to AAA much earlier. They have a good pulse on pitchers. I trust them in developing and identifying the right guys. They have many faults, but this isn't one of them and they've earned some trust here IMO. I'd like to see him throw 1+ time through the lineup every few days rest of season sort ofthing.

[lou]

I agree with you on most things, but I don't agree about never trading a young lefty. I wish like hell they'd have traded Rogers last year. Ultimately it's all about value, and selling high. This franchise rarely sells high. If you can get a nice return with Garrett in a deal, I'm taking it. If teams don't buy the small sample size, I'm perfectly fine holding onto him and feeling better about trading other arms in other deals.

Also, I'm not going to quote your whole previous post, which I think is very good overall, but the one thing I want to note is the Marlins say they're going to try Berry out at 3B, but it would be a pretty big shock if he sticks there, and I'd bet they'd even admit that if they were being honest. He's not good there, and even at LSU they had to move him around to try and find a home for him, ultimately DH-ing him quite a bit. He's probably a 1B/DH in the bigs, maybe being passable in a corner OF spot.

As for your other notes, I agree about needs. At SS, we talked a lot about Correa this last offseason, but my real white whale in free agency is Trea Turner. Not sure he gets out of LA, but he's exactly the type of player I think you plant your flag, and pay up for. He also supposedly grew up a Marlins fan.

They'd have been nuked if they traded a 4+ WAR lefty starting pitcher with 5 years of control. We can't play hindsight bias here. No reasonable argument can be made Rogers was selling high with that performance and amount of control. What would they do, ask for a top 10 overall prospect and who would have given up Julio Rodriguez or Riley Greene for him? That's what the ask would have to be and I can't imagine that trade happening. Pablo was the one to trade before this year because he hit arbitration and is a right hander.

Garrett is selling low right now to me - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-in...axton-garrett/ and they did a second mention https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/throwing-heat-week-12-2/. He is a hold for me. I mean if someone wants to give a top 75-100 prospect for him, sure, but do you see what that happening right now as I doubt that happens. Who is giving up a Salas, Watson, or Cabrera for Garrett? If you held a gun to my head and said you gotta trade one of Luzardo, Rogers, Garrett, Eder, and Fulton (top 5 lefties right?), I think it's clearly Fulton. Garrett is interesting with what he is doing - especially if they wise up and maybe he turns into a 100+ IP bulk reliever which seems like a good ceiling for him.

I'm with you on Berry but I feel he will be the 3B until Salas/Cappe internally replace him. Assuming those guys work out, but you have to imagine that's the plan on paper. Basically, Berry is the 3B Summer 2023-2025 so to speak.

[lou]

Somewhere I saw a proposal of Cartaya and Pages for Pablo. I like that on value, but I do wonder if they’d want players closer to the bigs.

Responding to all the "be seller" posts above cumulatively here.

Agree 100% they need players close to the bigs if they do this.


So for Pablo..... NOLAN GORMAN. Arrenado announced not opting out which is HUGE for this, Walker is better than Gorman (and untouchable I believe), and they have Goldy for at least 2 more. Gorman is destined for a DH with them and they can replace that short and longterm to win.

You can make a really good case something like Pablo(or Cabrera), Cooper, Wendle, and Bass makes St. Louis completely awesome on paper. Yea it's 4 guys (and they will make like $5+m combined ROS which is nothing and saves Bruce money), but this is their team. All 4 of those guys are also controlled next year so no pure rental.

Molina, Knizer
Goldy
____, Donovan
Edman, Sosa
Arenado
Carlson, Yepez
Bader
O'Neil
_______

Wainwright, Mikolas, _____, Hudson, Matz (DL-Flaherty but should be back)
Helsey, Gallegos, Wittgreen, Cabrera, Hicks, Oviedo, Pallante, _______


Not listed here are Gorman (who would be in the trade) and Pujols who is dead weight (sorry, but it's time), and old friend Dickerson but who cares about the fringe guys. You replace those two easily with Cooper and Wendle there, and Pablo and Bass are awesome adds for some depth. That's a nice looking team for sure, especially since they could probably option Sosa and get another bat somewhere to help the outfielders.

I'd say Gorman and Libertore could be the basis of this deal, and then 2-4 more guys in their top 11-30 range depending on how good the third player is. Gorman can handle 3B, so Berry is then permanently shifted to 1B or DH longterm (which is fine. I am ignoring how annoying it is to draft a non-defender also). Lewin is immediately called up and hopefully those 3 are plug and play for 5+ years. Libertore then does the unthinkable - they STILL have pitching to trade - and you can then really make a package for Laureano and be fucking done with that already (still 2.5+ WAR pace).

Also side not on Laureano - I think I/we were wrong about him only having 2 years of control. His suspension days don't count right? See - https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/service-time. So basically... Laureano entered the year with 3.014 days.... suspended 27 games.... so the maximum days he can reach this year are....160 service days.... meaning he has 3.174 days of service at the end of this season assuming he is called up all days.... meaning he became a backdoor super2 and is controlled for THREE not two extra years as he does not have 4 years of service time by 6 days. What a suspension if this is true. I am not sure if this is accurate, but I would love this answer as this is a real nuance here and Laureano becomes a lot more valuable. If this is right, 3.5 years of Laureano is worth one of the FV50 arms (Cabrera, Libertore in this hypothetical, maybe it's a Salas/Watson + Sixto package, etc.). So let's say Cabrera and something else notable (add Morisette and S. Reynolds?) is sent for him (and lesser prospects) but we don't care because we got Libertore and Gorman for Pablo and not longterm guys.....


TLDR: Pablo, Cabrera, Cooper, Wendle, Bass ---> Gorman, Libertore, Laureano

Next year looks like this if we follow:


Fortes, Stallings
Lewin
Jazz
_____, Rojas
Anderson**, Gorman*
Bleday
Laureano, Sanchez
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Meyer, Rogers, Libertore/Garrett (both have options, the other is the de facto 6th SP and Eury is 7)
_____, Bender, Pop, Poteet, Hernandez
Bleier, Scott, Okert

Top 15 prospects not listed above - Eury, Berry, Salas, Watson, Eder, Lewis, Cappe, Burdick, Fulton, Mack, Sixto, Nunez, Hernandez, Miller, Milbrandt < -- Really strong

* Takes over 3B next year and plays a lot of 1B in 23
** Plays a lot of corner OF

And then the exciting part - that team is roughly $67 million next year so let's talk epic SS (will Bruce do it?) and I have to imagine they can find a reliever (plus can still trade Berti/Sulser/Floro now for hopefully one. Berti may get something good shockingly enough), but they don't even need to go nuts when the AAA rotation is Eury, Libertore/Garrett, Eder, and Sixto. Likewise, Henry, Williams, Burdick, and Berry are all likely call-ups in 2023 so they would have a really solid depth core to go behind all of this.

They have all these players so an epic STL trade and dishing Cabrera as the main piece for Laureano sets up Bruce and Kim to sign literally "1" player and "4" of them are available (Correa, Turner, Xander, Swanson).

We can dream.

[Erick]

They could also stop being cheap bastards and just pay up for Brandon Nimmo. Worst case scenario, he’s the Jayson Werth signing you keep talking about as in we might have to overpay but he should be productive and help us win even if he’s not worth the contract value wise.

Nimmo’s floor should be steady because of his approach at the plate unlike the other guys we have signed in the past.

This gives us a steady leadoff hitter capable of playing CF, another left-handed bat (which I think is preferable), and allows us to keep all the pitching next year to see what sticks after Sandy.

[Namaste]

Kim Ng is in over her head.

[sports24/7]

They'd have been nuked if they traded a 4+ WAR lefty starting pitcher with 5 years of control. We can't play hindsight bias here. No reasonable argument can be made Rogers was selling high with that performance and amount of control. What would they do, ask for a top 10 overall prospect and who would have given up Julio Rodriguez or Riley Greene for him? That's what the ask would have to be and I can't imagine that trade happening. Pablo was the one to trade before this year because he hit arbitration and is a right hander.

Garrett is selling low right now to me - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-in...axton-garrett/ and they did a second mention https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/throwing-heat-week-12-2/. He is a hold for me. I mean if someone wants to give a top 75-100 prospect for him, sure, but do you see what that happening right now as I doubt that happens. Who is giving up a Salas, Watson, or Cabrera for Garrett? If you held a gun to my head and said you gotta trade one of Luzardo, Rogers, Garrett, Eder, and Fulton (top 5 lefties right?), I think it's clearly Fulton. Garrett is interesting with what he is doing - especially if they wise up and maybe he turns into a 100+ IP bulk reliever which seems like a good ceiling for him.

I'm with you on Berry but I feel he will be the 3B until Salas/Cappe internally replace him. Assuming those guys work out, but you have to imagine that's the plan on paper. Basically, Berry is the 3B Summer 2023-2025 so to speak.

I actually mentioned trading Rogers last year at the deadline in a deal for a big time bat (I believe guys like Reynolds were already being mentioned). I just questioned if he’d be able to keep up that level of play without amazing stuff. They didn’t do it, so it it what it is, but I think you try to capitalize on value when it’s there for a guy that doesn’t have big time stuff. As for Garrett, if it’s not selling high that’s fine to keep him. If he can be included in another deal that lets you get a big time prospect or young player who can hit with some team looking at what he’s doing now and buying the upside of a young lefty, I’d do it though.

That makes sense on Berry. Hopefully he proves us wrong and can play passable 3B. Supposedly he’s a kid that works really hard, so that would be a huge boon, if it happens.

[lou]

They could also stop being cheap bastards and just pay up for Brandon Nimmo. Worst case scenario, he’s the Jayson Werth signing you keep talking about as in we might have to overpay but he should be productive and help us win even if he’s not worth the contract value wise.

Nimmo’s floor should be steady because of his approach at the plate unlike the other guys we have signed in the past.

This gives us a steady leadoff hitter capable of playing CF, another left-handed bat (which I think is preferable), and allows us to keep all the pitching next year to see what sticks after Sandy.

Sure Nimmo is fine, so do the above and supercharge the Cardinals and trade Cabrera/prospects for a young long-term SS versus Laureano, and sign Nimmo instead.

I think the issue with Nimmo is Steve may just sign him to keep the entire band together, as well as Nimmo can be signed by 20+ teams as everyone can use a good OF. A lot of competition, while the four primary SS may only have 5-7 teams going after them (including Marlins). Cubs, Dodgers, maybe Boston, Orioles and Braves, and after that I'm not sure who has the budget for Correa/Turner/Xander/Swanson when accounting for what SS people have now and in the pipeline. A LOT of good SS prospects are coming so that may keep down the market - see Correa last year and this upcoming year could be worse for these guys. I did this post a few weeks ago. Some of the big spenders (Yankees, Boston in particular) have many young MI, and a lot of teams have guys in place so no need to devote money on a MI. There are 20+ young SS (a few may move to 2B/3B) in current top 100 prospect (that includes Watson and Salas FWIW), and well over half of those are top 50. It may be the perfect storm for a SS - a buyer's market and all 4 of those guys wanting Seager money and none of them getting it. If they ever are going to Jayson Werth a generational SS - this is the offseason. Only the Cubs will be desperate for one of them IMO.