2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

and acuna went from positively defensively to terrible? Even with the injury, no he didnt. Same thing with justin turner, he's been a good to average defender every year since 2015, this year he grades out terribly. Jon berti was never more than .3 in fangraphs measure of defense, this year he is a 3.7 and it inflates his war. The way they measure defense is not reliable. Jacob stallings the last 3 years was 12, 6.3, and 16.4, this year he was -.6. These are not reliable measurements and using WAR that incorporates these defensive metrics therefore is not reliable on a year to year basis. There is not yet an accurate measure of how to value defense, at least consistently.

Hell even Lewin diaz who everyone can see is a great defender grades out negatively at -.5 after being 1.1 last year. These are not reliable or consistent measurements, and when you use stats that incorporate these grades youre not using a reliable measurement either.

How do you reconcile all of this defensive posturing with Jon Berti having a .756 OPS (when you give him a TB or a CS and an OUT for a BB) last year and these were league leaders in OPS (an offensive stat) for 2B and 3B (minimum 150 PA):

2B
10th - Polanco .751
15th - Story .737
20th - Arcia .733
25th - Estrada .724
30th - Flores .710
35h - Guillorme - .691
40th - Merrifield - .673

3B
15th - Burger .761
20th - Paredes .740
25th - R. Castro .725
30th - Bohm .713
35th - J. Peterson .698
40th and 41st - Wendle/Anderson(!) - .658/.657

Remember. .756

Now of course, I'm sorting by OPS and some of these other guys here clearly stolen some bases so things would change a little if we gave them all the same TB/Out changes and who has time for that, but Berti was a "really average" starter at 2B/3B *purely offensively* this past year and even if you want to scale him down for next, he is offensively going to be one of the better backups in the league as a floor. *AND THEN* he's better defensively than at least half these guys helping him out a bit there too.

Like what is your point here? Berti is at worst a pretty solid low end starter, or a great bench player. He is controlled via arbitration so they don't have to commit any longterm money to him. He is perfect to help out Jazz versus some LHP and work in Groshans, who can be an emergency SS and CF if needed. He'd easily net a better deal than what Wendle (who is also old) got if they were to move him.

Berti is fine. Offensively and defensively. No one thinks he is going to drop a 4 WAR year next year, but he should be able to do a 1.5 WAR (career average per 600 PA 2.5) next year off the bench and that's a good player.

[lou]

the braves continue to be the model franchise in baseball at just about everything. They now have Albies, Strider, Acuna, Riley, Harris, and Olson locked up and not one of them will ever be paid more than 22 million. And Albies will never be paid more than 7 million, Acuna never more than 17 million, Harris never more than 12 million until 2031, Riley never more than 22 million,


Marlins should be doing the same thing and at least trying to get long term deals to lock up players to team friendly deals with guys like Luzardo, Jazz, Cabrera, and hell maybe even Eury.

I love the Strider deal because it's Atlanta's first big mistake. It is a GROSS overpay. He's being paid more than Sandy for less FA years. Good luck with that Atlanta. However, I feel they may be playing 4D chess here as this drives up the price for everyone else. I wonder who is really pitching heavy with young prospects in their division who all just got a little more expensive. But all the offensive deals have been good so there is that for them. Maybe Bruce should raise payroll?

I'd only offer Luzardo $30-35 max over 5 years right now. Jazz you wait on - he has a lot of Javy Baez in him. Let's see what happens. Cabrera and Eury have done nothing. Eury is not a Wander Franco/Evan Longoria bat you sign right now unless he too will also do $30-35m to lock up arbitration with an option year on top.

[fish16]

I love the Strider deal because it's Atlanta's first big mistake. It is a GROSS overpay. He's being paid more than Sandy for less FA years. Good luck with that Atlanta. However, I feel they may be playing 4D chess here as this drives up the price for everyone else. I wonder who is really pitching heavy with young prospects in their division who all just got a little more expensive. But all the offensive deals have been good so there is that for them. Maybe Bruce should raise payroll?

I'd only offer Luzardo $30-35 max over 5 years right now. Jazz you wait on - he has a lot of Javy Baez in him. Let's see what happens. Cabrera and Eury have done nothing. Eury is not a Wander Franco/Evan Longoria bat you sign right now unless he too will also do $30-35m to lock up arbitration with an option year on top.

Time will tell if it's a gross overpay or if it saves them money 5 years down the line. He was incredible this year and will be due just 1 million the next 2 years, just 4 million in 2025, and 20 million in 26 and 22 million the following 2 years with a club option for that last year. It's the type of move that comes with its risks but also its potential rewards because if he is as good as it seems he could make a ton in free agency. It's a play to potentially save money 4-5 years down the line without really increasing your payroll at all the next 3 years. It's the type of smart risk you can make when you've crushed the other long term deals for your position players by buying them out super early. They locked him up for 6 million total the next 3 years with the possibility that you just bought out a free agency year or 2 for a lot less than he would get on the open market. It of course has it's risks but it has huge potential for monster surplus value reward if he really is this good.

And we agree that bruce should absolutely raise payroll. It doesnt appear he will though so is it really worth discussing?

As far as our guys, it's again risk vs reward. Locking up guys, specifically pitchers, is risky. But if you do it right and find a deal that benefits both sides early, you can lock up guys for years down the line for way below what their market value would be or even what they would get in arbitration those last few years of team control. Luzardo and Cabrera both have had injuries, if they are willing to take team friendly deals like the braves have given out, the potential rewards greatly outweigh the risks. To me, given the huge potential surplus value you get in years 4,5,6, it's worth the risk as a small market team who will need team friendly deals to build a consistent contender and extend a theoretical window of contention.

All the guys i mentioned obviously have to agree to these team friendly deals. The deal has to make sense to both sides, and i think all of the guys i mentioned could agree to it depending on the years and money. Im not saying sign them all to 10 year 100 million deals. It has to be for the right years and money of course, i'm just saying it's prudent to get them under contract earlier rather than later and hope you can get these guys under super team friendly deals that allow you to build a super cheap core for years to come. It will also allow more flexibility in the future to maybe sign that big name free agent to put them over the top if Bruce ever does open up the wallet.

Cabrera hasnt done nothing, he was super impressive this year and he has Ace type stuff, and if they do sign him it would be a super cheap team friendly deal. He has shown clear top of the rotation ability, and youre taking a calculated risk that he stays healthy and you get a guy in his prime at a huge bargain that allows you to put a really good team around these guys.

Eury is just a deal you make if you think he really is a phenom. Give him 8 years 40-50 million or id even be fine with 10 years 60-70 million and see if he takes it and you have another stud locked up long term for very cheap in his prime at the cost of a couple million or 2 extra his first few years. He is a consensus top 10 prospect in baseball and as high as #2 and the best prospect they have had since Jose.

Jazz would be a low ball long term deal in my opinion. He has had injury issues the first 2 years because he plays the game somewhat wrecklessly, so it's again just about finding a deal that makes sense given both sides goals and maybe you can get him cheaper than you normally would given his injuries the first 2 years.

These deals help your long term flexibility and allow you to sign either those big name free agents or the kind of guys like Kluber, Morton, etc. that the rays sign every year because they have this core that they've locked up to team friendly deals early.

[lou]

Time will tell if it's a gross overpay or if it saves them money 5 years down the line. He was incredible this year and will be due just 1 million the next 2 years, just 4 million in 2025, and 20 million in 26 and 22 million the following 2 years with a club option for that last year. It's the type of move that comes with its risks but also its potential rewards because if he is as good as it seems he could make a ton in free agency. It's a play to potentially save money 4-5 years down the line without really increasing your payroll at all the next 3 years. It's the type of smart risk you can make when you've crushed the other long term deals for your position players by buying them out super early. They locked him up for 6 million total the next 3 years with the possibility that you just bought out a free agency year or 2 for a lot less than he would get on the open market. It of course has it's risks but it has huge potential for monster surplus value reward if he really is this good.

And we agree that bruce should absolutely raise payroll. It doesnt appear he will though so is it really worth discussing?

As far as our guys, it's again risk vs reward. Locking up guys, specifically pitchers, is risky. But if you do it right and find a deal that benefits both sides early, you can lock up guys for years down the line for way below what their market value would be or even what they would get in arbitration those last few years of team control. Luzardo and Cabrera both have had injuries, if they are willing to take team friendly deals like the braves have given out, the potential rewards greatly outweigh the risks. To me, given the huge potential surplus value you get in years 4,5,6, it's worth the risk as a small market team who will need team friendly deals to build a consistent contender and extend a theoretical window of contention.

All the guys i mentioned obviously have to agree to these team friendly deals. The deal has to make sense to both sides, and i think all of the guys i mentioned could agree to it depending on the years and money. Im not saying sign them all to 10 year 100 million deals. It has to be for the right years and money of course, i'm just saying it's prudent to get them under contract earlier rather than later and hope you can get these guys under super team friendly deals that allow you to build a super cheap core for years to come. It will also allow more flexibility in the future to maybe sign that big name free agent to put them over the top if Bruce ever does open up the wallet.

Cabrera hasnt done nothing, he was super impressive this year and he has Ace type stuff, and if they do sign him it would be a super cheap team friendly deal. He has shown clear top of the rotation ability, and youre taking a calculated risk that he stays healthy and you get a guy in his prime at a huge bargain that allows you to put a really good team around these guys.

Eury is just a deal you make if you think he really is a phenom. Give him 8 years 40-50 million or id even be fine with 10 years 60-70 million and see if he takes it and you have another stud locked up long term for very cheap in his prime at the cost of a couple million or 2 extra his first few years. He is a consensus top 10 prospect in baseball and as high as #2 and the best prospect they have had since Jose.

Jazz would be a low ball long term deal in my opinion. He has had injury issues the first 2 years because he plays the game somewhat wrecklessly, so it's again just about finding a deal that makes sense given both sides goals and maybe you can get him cheaper than you normally would given his injuries the first 2 years.

These deals help your long term flexibility and allow you to sign either those big name free agents or the kind of guys like Kluber, Morton, etc. that the rays sign every year because they have this core that they've locked up to team friendly deals early.

I'll take the bet Strider is not better than Sandy, Snell, and Nola and that's what Atlanta just did. Good for Spencer. Get the bag.

It's Luzardo for me and that's it. $30-35m range and back to arbitration if not. I like this idea, just not for the numbers you mentioned earlier. Temper expectations to $30s land over 5 and this can work for everyone.

Cabrera doesn't have a year of service time I believe so he's controlled 23-28. There is no rush here at all. The same leverage exists next offseason.

Eury is far too young for this. Pitchers his size do not have good longterm track levels so let's see what happens. He could blow out his arm next year and not be up until 2025. Assuming he comes up after super2 deadline, he's controlled through 2029 as-is. They got PLENTY of time to lowball him. It's too soon.

[lou]

[URL="https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/history/"]BTV History

Lee want to do a fun thought experiment for me. What does this cost to you:


McCarthy or Thomas and Bumgarner (Ari) - Use Soler and others. They don't need another MLB player in this deal, but will need MLB ready guys by 2024. So now Miller/Millbrandt/etc.

Rosario and Nolan Jones or Josh Naylor (Cle) - Use Pablo and others. They could use right handed bats in pipeline for bonus.


Can't trade these 20 guys - Fortes, Stallings, Cooper, Berti, Anderson, Groshans, Garcia, Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Garrett, Floro, Bleier, Scott, Okert... and Eury, Berry, Meyer, and Eder.

Can trade one each of anyone in this group if you want, but everyone else has to be kept: (1) Rojas/Wendle, (2) DLC/Burdick/Jerar, (3) Bleday/Sanchez, and (4) Cappe/Watson/Salas/Lewis.

Max 4 players from the Marlins, if you even get that high.

Deal totally up to you.


To note, this increases payroll $5-8m next year depending on Jones versus Naylor as Naylor is in arb already. This also sheds $8-17m dollars off Arizona depending on Soler opt out, and sheds $2-5m off Cleveland with Naylor versus Jones again.


What are we trading here for a 1B, SS, CF, and SP replacement