2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Starting to think the old tired cliche of you can never have enough pitching is dumb and that the guardians definitely have enough pitching and definitely aren’t trading two out of their 6 best hitters for a starting pitcher a year away

[Lee Stone]

Toronto's need for pitching is obvious to them after losing the Seattle series. According to BTV at least, an Alcantara trade could easily net top catching and MLB ready prospect C Moreno, Vlad Guerrero Jr. and another highly touted prospect. or two. Yep, I'm interested in working on that deal.

[fish16]

Toronto's need for pitching is obvious to them after losing the Seattle series. According to BTV at least, an Alcantara trade could easily net top catching and MLB ready prospect C Moreno, Vlad Guerrero Jr. and another highly touted prospect. or two. Yep, I'm interested in working on that deal.

Lol

[Lee Stone]

Lol

Speaking of old tired cliches ... Lol leads the list!

[Nick]

What is BTV?

[Lee Stone]

[URL="https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/"]Trades

[Todd]

Every trade on that website is dumb as hell and makes little sense for either team.

Of course you love it.

[Namaste]

if you think a guy with a 93 WRC+ and .662 OPS and .324 OBP was worth 2.3 WAR because of his defense which no one seems to be able to measure consistently that's on you. he was a bad hitter by any measure this year, and his 77 WRC+ was even worse last year. His OPS+ was 89 this year and 71 last year. he is a straight-up significantly below-average hitter, if you think his defense makes him worth more than 2 WAR, go ahead and fill 9 Jon Berti's in a lineup and see how that works out for you.

Berti had a 2.3 WAR with a .662 OPS, just 24 xbh's, and 41 steals.

Bobby witt JR also had 2.3 WAR. He hit .722 OPS, 30 SB, 20 HR's, 57 total XBH's.

Bryce Harper played in 3 less games than berti and only had .1 less WAR. He had an .877 OPS, 18 HR's, 11 sb's, 47 total xbh's.

Rhys Hoskins had .1 WAR less than berti. He had a .794 OPS, 30 hr's, 72 walks, 65 total xbh's.

Ronald acuna played in 17 more games than Berti and had .1 less WAR than him despite hitting for a .764 OPS, 29 SB's, 39 XBH's.

Justin Turner had .1 WAR more than Berti, despite playing in 26 more games and hitting .788 OPS and 49 XBH's.

Now you tell me, was jon berti anywhere close to these guys in terms of production, or does WAR grossly overvalue players defense over the value they produce on offense?

Why is WAR only relevant when it fits the narrative you’re selling?

[Lee Stone]

[URL="https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/history/"]BTV History

[fish16]

Why is WAR only relevant when it fits the narrative you’re selling?

I dont use WAR often. I think it is a highly imperfect stat for guys who cant hit but play defense well. i think it grossly overvalues defensive impact. And defensive impact is not measured very well. With offense there are clear and objective ways that it can be measured. Defense not so much, and defense is much more volatile on a year to year basis.

Now answer my question, do you think those guys were just as impactful as Berti because WAR says so? You think Bryce Harper and Jon Berti had similarly impactful years? The value that stars produce on offense greatly outweighs the maybe 1 play every few games that they make that an average defender doesnt. Hence why Bryce harper is still a superstar and jon berti would have very little value on the trade market.

[lou]

Why is WAR only relevant when it fits the narrative you’re selling?

Because he is upset the team didn't win 88 games?

Also I love the offensive citations of OPS and everything else and how he is below average there, and he just drops in "and 41 SB." Which he did with 5 CS. Which is an incredible rate. Incredible. So let's add 41 TB to Berti, and remove 5 walks as he created 5 base path CS to make an un-scientific rough slash - 240/.304/.452. So here we have a guy hitting an effective 750+ OPS and playing excellent defense at 2B and 3B. We'll ignore his base running value also running 1st to 3rd, or just other general pitcher harassment making them uncomfortable.

750+ OPS rate playing above average defensively 2B is top 10-15 at his position in baseball, and as a 3B top 14-18th or so. I might be underselling a slot or two also.

So Berti as a floor is a very average starter at 2 positions, and he can dabble in the OF. So yea, 2+ WAR checks out. He's a good player? I was wrong on him entering into the year for sure so I get it, but what he did is nuts.

And if we think he overachieved this year, so then he becomes a low-end starter on your bench and is cheap? With no guaranteed contract as still in arbitration?

Why are we angry about this one?

They need a major SS and CF starter upgrade, and if possible someone better than Cooper. Three guys there. That's it.

[lou]

I dont use WAR often. I think it is a highly imperfect stat for guys who cant hit but play defense well. i think it grossly overvalues defensive impact. And defensive impact is not measured very well. With offense there are clear and objective ways that it can be measured. Defense not so much, and defense is much more volatile on a year to year basis.

Now answer my question, do you think those guys were just as impactful as Berti because WAR says so? You think Bryce Harper and Jon Berti had similarly impactful years? The value that stars produce on offense greatly outweighs the maybe 1 play every few games that they make that an average defender doesnt. Hence why Bryce harper is still a superstar and jon berti would have very little value on the trade market.

Harper played 68 innings in the field and the "replacement level" at DH is significantly higher than 2B/3B. So yea, Harper is clearly better because he can really mash, but as with many other things at the moment, missing the forest in the trees as Berti is demolishing him in the field and base paths (Harper below average base runner last year to boot). Those do add up. Suppressing runs and scoring from 1st at a ball in the gap add up over hundreds of events.

They need a SS and CF, ideally a Cooper upgrade if they can. Berti isn't a problem.

[fish16]

Harper played 68 innings in the field and the "replacement level" at DH is significantly higher than 2B/3B. So yea, Harper is clearly better because he can really mash, but as with many other things at the moment, missing the forest in the trees as Berti is demolishing him in the field and base paths (Harper below average base runner last year to boot). Those do add up. Suppressing runs and scoring from 1st at a ball in the gap add up over hundreds of events.

They need a SS and CF, ideally a Cooper upgrade if they can. Berti isn't a problem.

and acuna went from positively defensively to terrible? Even with the injury, no he didnt. Same thing with justin turner, he's been a good to average defender every year since 2015, this year he grades out terribly. Jon berti was never more than .3 in fangraphs measure of defense, this year he is a 3.7 and it inflates his war. The way they measure defense is not reliable. Jacob stallings the last 3 years was 12, 6.3, and 16.4, this year he was -.6. These are not reliable measurements and using WAR that incorporates these defensive metrics therefore is not reliable on a year to year basis. There is not yet an accurate measure of how to value defense, at least consistently.

Hell even Lewin diaz who everyone can see is a great defender grades out negatively at -.5 after being 1.1 last year. These are not reliable or consistent measurements, and when you use stats that incorporate these grades youre not using a reliable measurement either.

[fish16]

some more examples- Juan soto goes from -1.1 to -18? Verdugo goes from 2.5 and 5.9 to -6.7 last year and -10.2 this year? In the prime of their careers? These measurements are not reliable or consistent on a year to year basis. Jonathan schoop goes from -5.3 last year to the best grade in baseball at 22.3 this year? Willy adames goes from -.1 last year to one of the best in baseball this year at 14.8. Xander Bogaerts goes from -1.8, to -.3, to -.1, to one of the best in baseball at 9.0.

Dj Lemahieu at age 34 goes from -2.7 to -1.6 to 4.9 this year. Jorge mateo goes from -.7 to -1.1 to 14.5 this year.

Cesar hernandez since 2016- 7.8, -.7, -2, -.1, 5.6, 1.4, -.6. These are not reliable measurements of defense and when you use stats that incorporate these stats and project them to future years youre making terrible evaluations of players.

[fish16]

the braves continue to be the model franchise in baseball at just about everything. They now have Albies, Strider, Acuna, Riley, Harris, and Olson locked up and not one of them will ever be paid more than 22 million. And Albies will never be paid more than 7 million, Acuna never more than 17 million, Harris never more than 12 million until 2031, Riley never more than 22 million,


Marlins should be doing the same thing and at least trying to get long term deals to lock up players to team friendly deals with guys like Luzardo, Jazz, Cabrera, and hell maybe even Eury.