2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[rmc523]

Everybody in the front office that signed off on the Avisail contract rates a sacking in my book. He's Lewis Brinson 53.0 ($53.0)

I think just about everyone said when it happened that it was a terrible signing, and it’s been proven true.

[fish16]

There has to be a team interested in Soler for a bag of peanuts, right? If so, he’s gotta go too.

he's going to opt out I would think so I think there will be a team interested in him for a rental. we're not going to get anything for him though.

[lou]

There has to be a team interested in Soler for a bag of peanuts, right? If so, he’s gotta go too.

I'd keep him unless someone gives something decent (an FV45+ as main piece, or real luxury reliever with control) and eats 100% of contract.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb < --- This is pretty good and BABIP is 40 points below career. He may very well have a 2019/post-2021 left in him and that's worth every penny to me.

[lou]

Send down Sanchez for some work and trade Pablo, Aguilar just to dump him, Cooper if there is value, Bass, Soler if you can find a taker, and just DFA Stallings or don't play him. Call up Bleday, Lewin, Leblanc, Jake Fishman, and Josh Simpson.

Let the kids play the end of the year and when sanchez gets hot in AAA, bring him back up and just let him take Garcia's playing time in RF or just pure platoon the two of them.

C- Fortes/Stallings
1b- Lewin
2b- Leblanc
SS- Rojas
3b- Wendle
LF- Anderson
CF- Bleday
RF- Sanchez/Garcia
DH- Who fucking cares
SP- Sandy, Meyer, Cabrera, Garrett, Luzardo when they come back

Trade the infield - Cooper, Berti, Wendle, and Anderson. All should go.

Those guys are amazing pieces for contenders and attaching to Pablo and Cabrera to make two real OOMPH trades for someone and raid their system. Seattle and St. Louis are perfect for this. Maybe even the Yankees with Volpe/Peraza and do the unthinkable - take back money (Britton, Gallo) to buy the better guys as kickers. They did do that with sending money to Oakland for Luzardo so I don't think it's unreasonable.

A lot of options. This is a really big moment for Kim to completely control the deadline (Soto doesn't count, that is far too large of a deal for 27 teams) with having the best pitcher to move, as well as longterm prospect pitching, and an entire starting IF. All of these guys can turn into 3 BIG bats in the line of Jazz/Berry level prospects for right now and then she can afford Nimmo in the offseason on top of it. Hypotheticals are endless. Every team in baseball wants guys with control and upside.

[fish16]

if mattingly isnt fired soon im about done with this team. how can you root for a team that clearly has no interest in doing anything close to what needs to be done to win in this league? i keep saying it, but who the fuck invests 1.2 billion in a team and then keeps them as a bottom 5 payroll? What is the thought process behind that? He overspent on the team like a moron because jeter thought he had the golden touch and merely getting rid of Samson and Loria would fix everything without them actually ever doing anything different other than spending more on the draft and IFA?

[lou]

he's going to opt out I would think so I think there will be a team interested in him for a rental. we're not going to get anything for him though.

Not sure he's opting out of 2/$24 if he continues, but if he gets hot maybe. Statcast does think he will get hot at any minute FWIW.

[lou]

I think just about everyone said when it happened that it was a terrible signing, and it’s been proven true.

I didn't hate it, I got the underlying analytics behind it. He does hit the ball hard and has been a good historical defender. I'm really floored he is this bad. I thought he'd be a fine 2-2.5+ WAR whatever guy, which would be useful. The real issue for me was then keeping Aguilar when you signed Soler but we don't need to get into the CF failure here.

That being said, results out weigh thought process and the results of this are an F. The good news is, payroll is so good/cheap (especially if they do as I propose and jettison Pablo/Cooper/Berti/Wendle/Anderson who would combine next year make close to $25m), Garcia won't matter much if they do it right.

[fish16]

Trade the infield - Cooper, Berti, Wendle, and Anderson. All should go.

Those guys are amazing pieces for contenders and attaching to Pablo and Cabrera to make two real OOMPH trades for someone and raid their system. Seattle and St. Louis are perfect for this. Maybe even the Yankees with Volpe/Peraza and do the unthinkable - take back money (Britton, Gallo) to buy the better guys as kickers. They did do that with sending money to Oakland for Luzardo so I don't think it's unreasonable.

A lot of options. This is a really big moment for Kim to completely control the deadline (Soto doesn't count, that is far too large of a deal for 27 teams) with having the best pitcher to move, as well as longterm prospect pitching, and an entire starting IF. All of these guys can turn into 3 BIG bats in the line of Jazz/Berry level prospects for right now and then she can afford Nimmo in the offseason on top of it. Hypotheticals are endless. Every team in baseball wants guys with control and upside.

Berti if he has value can go for me, but the other 3 are good enough depth with team control for next year and have low enough value where you have to ask yourself whether its even worth it to trade them for the inevitable flier prospect you will get for them. Say what you want about how frustrating anderson is, but he's a major league starter, and same with Wendle and Cooper. Trading guys for the sake of just trading them makes no sense to me. Wtf are you realistically going to get for them that would make it worth it? Are you getting anyone for them that can give you mid .700
's to low .800's OPS any time soon?

To me the problem isn't that those guys are mediocre to slightly above average, it's the pieces around them also being bad or mediocre that lead to an overall putrid lineup. I'd keep those guys and do whatever it takes in other bigger trades to get the star guys in the lineup to surround those decent bats like those 3. Not that we would do this in any world, but if they trade for Soto and sign Correa or Trea Turner, those are great bottom of the lineup surrounding pieces. The problem is not them, it's the lack of help around them. Those are good 5th, 6th, or 7th pieces in the lineup. They are terrible 1st or 2nd options. You're not going to get the value for them that makes it worth it. If it was another full tear down and rebuild that would be 1 thing, but this is just an attempted makeover with the current core pieces. Keep those guys, deal pablo, bullpen arms, and any other spare pieces, and spend some fucking money for some star bats to compliment these decent lineup pieces.

[Erick]

he's going to opt out I would think so I think there will be a team interested in him for a rental. we're not going to get anything for him though.

He’s been awful so I doubt he opts out.

[Erick]

Not sure he's opting out of 2/$24 if he continues, but if he gets hot maybe. Statcast does think he will get hot at any minute FWIW.

Maybe we can have some more blowout games so he can inflate his numbers some more in irrelevant situations.

[Nick]

I don't get why this board constantly undervalues Berti. When he's been healthy this year, he's been the 2nd best position player on the team, and really it's not close. Everybody wanted to ditch him before the season.

[lou]

Berti if he has value can go for me, but the other 3 are good enough depth with team control for next year and have low enough value where you have to ask yourself whether its even worth it to trade them for the inevitable flier prospect you will get for them. Say what you want about how frustrating anderson is, but he's a major league starter, and same with Wendle and Cooper. Trading guys for the sake of just trading them makes no sense to me. Wtf are you realistically going to get for them that would make it worth it? Are you getting anyone for them that can give you mid .700
's to low .800's OPS any time soon?

To me the problem isn't that those guys are mediocre to slightly above average, it's the pieces around them also being bad or mediocre that lead to an overall putrid lineup. I'd keep those guys and do whatever it takes in other bigger trades to get the star guys in the lineup to surround those decent bats like those 3. Not that we would do this in any world, but if they trade for Soto and sign Correa or Trea Turner, those are great bottom of the lineup surrounding pieces. The problem is not them, it's the lack of help around them. Those are good 5th, 6th, or 7th pieces in the lineup. They are terrible 1st or 2nd options. You're not going to get the value for them that makes it worth it. If it was another full tear down and rebuild that would be 1 thing, but this is just an attempted makeover with the current core pieces. Keep those guys, deal pablo, bullpen arms, and any other spare pieces, and spend some fucking money for some star bats to compliment these decent lineup pieces.

If they keep them all, we're at the same place as now. This team isn't working. There is little offensive upside besides Jazz, and presumably Bleday really exploding into his full prospect status. It's not going to work. I also disagree that Cooper, Wendle, and Anderson have low value. I think they have HIGH value with each of them playing at good clips with a year of control next year. They aren't commanding huge sums. I agree on their own they likely wouldn't get someone too exciting so just keep them in that scenario, but that is where PABLO and CABRERA/ARM comes in. Attach two of those guys (add Berti) to one of those arms, as well as Bass and Okert, that is a "contending team" 4 player package highlighted by a longterm SP. That gets you a lot. And that's what they need. A lot.

Pablo/Anderson/Berti/Bass
Cabrera/Wendle/Cooper/Okert

Those are some fucking trades right there to super charge someone. Put together an aggressive package like that, and you should be able to get anything you want. That's an impact short and longterm package. Seattle could really use the first one and St. Louis the second one to be specific. For the Marlins, we're talking N. Marte, K. Lewis, and Gorman coming back theoretically. It really adds up and works from my math. To reconcile, I just popped those into that trade simulator (which I don't like for instance E. Cabrera doesn't have 1/3rd the value of Meyer) which Lee uses for perspective (https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/), and this works for their system too:

Pablo/Anderson/Berti/Bass -> N. Marte, K. Lewis, and flyer prospects (Berti is over valued in their system but it still works)
Cabrera/Wendle/Cooper/Okert - > Gorman and flyer prospects (assuming we value Cabrera similar to Meyer/Luzardo/Rogers which is fair)


You can't really tell me this is a bad team for approx. $54 million and who cares about the guys they traded. This is bananas with Eury, Marte, Berry, and Eder up next year presumably.

Fortes, Stallings
Lewin
Jazz
Rojas, ______ (---> N. Marte)
Gorman, Williams (---> Berry)
K. Lewis, Bleday/Sanchez
_____
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Meyer, Rogers/Garrett, _______
_____, Bender, Pop, Poteet, Hernandez
Scott, Rogers/Garrett, Castano/Nardi/____
(AAA ---> Eury, Eder, Sixto)

If Nimmo is say $22m and a decent backup SS $4, we're at $80m and then ask how much would Bruce spend on luxury pitching while we wait for Eury, Eder, and Sixto to round that out. Spending another $10-15m on two arms would be really exciting you know.

Or Rizzo opts out, trade Lewin for an arm, and sign Rizzo for 2-3 years (1.7 WAR this year and counting with a .220 BABIP. Obviously play at home pull here for him). That'll also fit into this budget and that's another upgrade possibility.

And yes, do all of this at the same time and spend $110m minimum.


Big picture here - none of these guys I've mentioned matter and this aggressive approach could pay off. However, you do need to believe they get 4 awesome SP out of Sandy, Eury, Luzardo, Meyer, Eder, Rogers, Garrett, and Sixto (and can include Poteet, Hernandez, Neidert I guess). That's a bet I'd take.

[lou]

I don't get why this board constantly undervalues Berti. When he's been healthy this year, he's been the 2nd best player on the team, and really it's not close. Everybody wanted to ditch him before the season.

Career year at 32 and going to be 33 next year.

No offense to Berti, but "HE" will never have this value ever again and is a perfect guy to attach to Pablo, etc. for a real oomph package.

[Nick]

Career year at 32 and going to be 33 next year.

No offense to Berti, but "HE" will never have this value ever again and is a perfect guy to attach to Pablo, etc. for a real oomph package.

I don’t disagree about dealing him now. I just disagree with the fact that he has no value. As far as trade pieces above the age of 26 his value is probably only behind Sandy and Pablo in the organization.

[lou]

I don’t disagree about dealing him now. I just disagree with the fact that he has no value. As far as trade pieces above the age of 26 his value is probably only behind Sandy and Pablo in the organization.

That's a bit much. Cooper, Wendle, and Anderson are likely more valuable with longer track records. I can give them all a tie for third place though before we get to Bass and Soler.

This is all centerpiece dependent however. They are all attachments to Pablo or Cabrera/Meyer. That is their real trade value. Awesome 2nd-3rd pieces to the main prize.

I'm fine keeping everyone if BRUCE WILL SPEND, but absent that, plan B is a hard reset with play now guys (Gorman, Lewis), clear payroll, and spend to at least this year's level which fits in Nimmo/Swanson more than likely. Big offensive upgrades and it becomes a question of how much do you trust Eury, Luzardo, Meyer, Eder, Rogers, Garrett, Sixto, Poteet, Hernandez, and Neidert, as effectively, those guys will need to eat 900 innings next year. As mentioned, I'll take that bet.

Plan C is probably keep them all, get Laureano for prospects that aren't the SP, and trust your pitching to get you to the deadline next year and see how it is going. This too could work if Luzardo comes back acetastic, Meyer is good, and Rogers does anything, and the bullpen is then just killing people with Cabrera, Garrett, and Sixto pushed there. This is likely what's going to happen I imagine.