2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Yes, but maybe this is an idea to shield innings:

Sandy
Luzardo -> Hernandez
Pablo
Rogers - > Poteet
Cabrera - > Garrett

Call Luzardo/Rogers/Cabrera 2+ times through the lineup, and Hernandez/Poteet/Garrett 1 time through.

If you deploy an opener for the three of them to shield that first inning (at least for Rogers and Cabrera for the time being. Luzardo we can probably trust more), effectively you might get through the game with those 3 pitchers, or maybe you have a closer for the 9th.

I bet we're looking 150 IP for Luzardo/Rogers/Cabrera here and 100+ for Hernandez/Poteet/Garrett which sounds about right. Flip Rogers and Garett if you want also.

If Sandy is throwing 220 IP and Pablo 175, this leave around 300 innings left for the rest of the roster. Bender, Pop, Bleier, Scott, and pick a rotating reliever from AAA can easily handle this.


This is also without Eury, Eder, and Sixto who could really impact this midseason also. Let alone maybe Meyer is OK.


Basically, I like the staff a lot with Pablo. This becomes a lot harder without him. Hence, what's going to happen this week.

at what point have the marlins ever shown a willingness to do something out of the box like this. why even waste time discussing it until ownership/front office/manager changes? I also think pablo is gone within the next few days.

[lou]

at what point have the marlins ever shown a willingness to do something out of the box like this. why even waste time discussing it until ownership/front office/manager changes? I also think pablo is gone within the next few days.

So it's a good idea?

The best I can come up with here is Bruce has rammed Don down FO's throat (i.e. don't spend on a new manager on a 3-5 year deal, let's just go a year with Don and see what happens), and a new manager search next year now will produce a more analytics based new school manager. When that happens, radical P usage changes. If this seems outrageous, look at Don calling out FO. Reading between the lines, I see they are making me bench Jazz against lefties, and playing Garcia in the middle to jump start him, etc. So, if there is hope, it is that.

Basically, I think Bruce's cheapness is the problem here.

[lou]

Also weird eye opening state I just found.

Jesus Sanchez has the 16th best OPS (minimum 150 PA) in baseball against RHP for CF. This is 56th for all OF.

So as bad as he is, he is legitimately a pretty alright starter versus RHP. Even a small improvement for him could be pretty interesting as there is obviously a lot of growth for a guy hitting .738 OPS versus RHP.

Also to note, DLC is 54th for all OF this year against RHP. I'm not sure what to make of that, but that is an interesting SSS.

[fish16]

Also weird eye opening state I just found.

Jesus Sanchez has the 16th best OPS (minimum 150 PA) in baseball against RHP for CF. This is 56th for all OF.

So as bad as he is, he is legitimately a pretty alright starter versus RHP. Even a small improvement for him could be pretty interesting as there is obviously a lot of growth for a guy hitting .738 OPS versus RHP.

Also to note, DLC is 54th for all OF this year against RHP. I'm not sure what to make of that, but that is an interesting SSS.

ya, sanchez seems to have a pretty comfortable long career ahead of him as a lefty platoon bat against righties. time will tell if he develops into more than that.

[Lee Stone]

An artilcle up about Astro CF Jose Siri and trade interest from other teams. I wrote about him here two years ago when Houston signed him as a free agent from the DWL, which I was following. Great defense, lots of speed, and even some power.

Astros' Jose Siri Drawing Trade Interest - MLB Trade Rumors

[lou]

The Meyer Tommy John is official

See ya in 2024 champ.

[Namaste]

PERFECT

[lou]

An artilcle up about Astro CF Jose Siri and trade interest from other teams. I wrote about him here two years ago when Houston signed him as a free agent from the DWL, which I was following. Great defense, lots of speed, and even some power.

Astros' Jose Siri Drawing Trade Interest - MLB Trade Rumors

He seems like a defender who will never hit. But if he is virtually free, sure. Seems like a fine second piece for Cooper/Berti/Bass who they could use.

He's OOO, so he makes the team next year.

So the OF would be Bleday-Siri-Garcia/Sanchez unless they get out of Soler or option Sanchez or Bleday to AAA and upgrade with a bigger name. This is the type of cheap move Bruce would make and pray the 10% prospect upside happens.

I'm hoping for bigger fish.

[rmc523]

Hard to get the first 4 without Pablo Lopez. Minn. needs Lewis when Correa opts out. Peraza is close to untouchable, but Pablo would absolutely move that needle. He's a top 3 Pablo target to me. I'd be shocked if they gave up Pages for Cooper, but that would be great to get a FV50 for him. Maybe you add Bass to him or take on a bad contract to do it. Not sure Cleveland trades Rocchio in any scenario. They need him opposite Gimenez and are cheap like the Marlins. He'd also be a Pablo only option. Montgomery is a good target for Cooper/Wendle/Rojas/Berti for sure. Benintendi just got a FV40+, FV40, and FV40 prospect.... and all the Marlins guys are better than that with an extra year of control + performance.

If the Berrios trade a year ago and the Benintendi trade now is any indication, they will get A LOT at the deadline if they do trade everyone.

Pablo FV60-50, FV50, FV45-40 (depending on top piece)
Cooper, Wendle, and Berti - FV45 and FV40, maybe two
Bass - FV40+ and FV40
Floro and Okert - FV40 and maybe two
Aguilar salary dump - FV35+

You can easily see 15+ guys with 2 elite guys and 3-5 guys in the Fulton/Burdick/Morisette range.

It does make sense strategically..... just circle 2024. Cycle repeats.

Most teams would get a lot. The Marlins will somehow get scrap heap players that don’t work out in typical Marlins fashion

[sports24/7]

The more I think about it, the more I think they have to trade Pablo right now, even if they're going for it in 2023 (which I think they have to). Craig Mish reported that Miami hasn't even approached him about an extension, and that he thinks with Pablo this close to FA, Pablo probably wouldn't want to sign an extension anyway. So in order to "win" on the decision to keep Pablo, the following this would all have to happen:

1. He continues to pitch at the level we've seen this year.
2. He stays healthy (something he hasn't done until this year).
3. The team either goes out and spends money on at least two impact bats, or spends on one (and maybe another solid bat), and unloads the farm for another, and both bats live up to their cost in a short window.

What's the likelihood that all of that happens?

On the other hand, if you trade him now, you know you're selling high, and while it's no slam dunk that the return works out, you're dramatically increasing the odds that you improve your lineup, allowing you to only have to really spend big on one more bat in the offseason (or potentially even get that other bat by unloading your farm system). In this scenario, other than hoping the guys you brought in pay off, the biggest leap of faith you'd be taking is that you can fill out the rest of the rotation behind Sandy among a group consisting of Luzardo, Rogers, Sixto, Cabrera, Garrett, Eder, McCambly, Perez, Hoeing, Fulton, etc.

To me, the wiser option when looking at the big picture, even potentially in the short term, is option B where you trade him. The only reason I wouldn't pull the trigger is if you're just not getting good enough offers, but I find that hard to believe when he could be an ace on many teams in the league, and at worst, a very good #2 on a WS team, in a market where all the contenders are looking to add SP, and many of them have intriguing packages to offer that fit Miami's needs.

[Erick]

Don Mattingly concluded today’s postgame by saying the team had an “incredible” road trip.

They went 4-3 against the Pirates and Reds.

Please hire somebody else.

[fish16]

Cabrera is ready and im excited to watch him the last few months of the year. Another dominating first 4 innings tonight in AAA. So far 5 IP, 7 K's, 0 walks, 1 hit. At the very least if we don't have a dominant rotation for the next few years, we should have a ridiculously filthy bullpen with these guys. IF we can just stay healthy and sherman operates like a major league owner and spends some money for a hitter...

The most frustrating thing about looking at this roster is that while its currently painful to watch, if we had a legitimate owner willing to spend some money at even a mid level "twins" level, this team is not far from contention. But because we don't, we have to find ways to field a competitive lineup while penny pinching and its almost impossible with how barren this lineup is right now, even with how many intriguing pitchers we have. A real owner goes out this offseason (really last offseason) and spends money on a Correa or a trea turner and you've made huge progress. All of a sudden you go trade some prospects or some of the pitching depth for one more hitter and you can find a realistic path to contention. But here in reality, we have to find a way to acquire a major piece in the lineup and its going to come at the cost of pitching. There is a way to do it without subtracting too much pitching or get lucky and happen to trade the right guys who don't work out and keep the ones who do, but there is just the overwhelming possibility that they either acquire the wrong guy, trade the wrong guy, or just make the pitching a little more mediocre and the lineup doesn't improve enough to improve the team as a whole. What a miserable experience rooting for this franchise is.

[fish16]

A guy we dont talk about who is quietly having a pretty damn good year with better peripherals than standard numbers is dax fulton. still just 20 in A+, 77 IP, 4.56 ERA, but 101 k's, just 27 walks, and 3.15 FIP. Not sure if Beloit is just one of those places that are unfriendly for pitching or our defense sucks down there, but he has been pretty good. Was once the top high school pitcher in his draft class before he got hurt, the talent is clearly there.

Joe mack was also injured a lot this year but interesting numbers at the plate in the small sample. Still super young and a ways away but really impressive BB/K ratio, which to me is a huge indicator of future success at higher levels.

Jose Salas too probably has become the premier SS prospect in the franchise, which has a lot of guys including Cappe, Lewis, Watson, and Nunez. Nunez by the way has 47 steals in 81 games so far this year. An obvious 94 SB pace per 162 games. If that kid can find any semblance of on base percentage and develop even juan pierre type gap power, with his fielding tool and obvious speed, he;s super interesting.

[fish16]

the one thing i would like to see at the deadline- get rid of some of these mediocre bullpen arms and lets see some of these flier draft picks that look promising- josh simpson, jake fishman, nardi, neidert also. lets see them.

[lou]

the one thing i would like to see at the deadline- get rid of some of these mediocre bullpen arms and lets see some of these flier draft picks that look promising- josh simpson, jake fishman, nardi, neidert also. lets see them.

They might want to sneak a few of those guys through RuleV off 40 man.

I’d try Neidert for sure though and Nardi seems like a good 4/5th pen lefty option and a last guy or two on 40 man.