2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[sports24/7]

There is a realistic way.

It would just involve our owner not being cheap for a change.

Bruce Sherman should be getting treated like Loria at this point. He sucks.

Well, that's why it's not realistic, lol. But even if he decided to go out and break the bank on a stud like Turner or Correa, they'd still need more bats. And as unlikely as it is that he spends on one big bat, is damn near unthinkable that he'd buy another bat or bats on top of that.

I agree about Sherman being treated like Loria. He's not the scum bag Loria was, but he just as interested in spending as Loria was. Maybe less interested because at least Loria tried to spend in 2011, even if it was a disaster, and short-lived.

[Lee Stone]

Austin Riley has become Atlanta's top hitter. Why is that relevant? Marlins said no when Atlanta included him in an offer for Realmuto.

[Erick]

If we had a legit GM, we could probably get a nice hitter for Bass.

Bass has become somewhat elite ever since he started using his slider as his primary pitch last season. Has an ERA under 3 in over 100 innings as a Marlin now.

Went from failed closer to probably Kim Ng’s best contract (sad).

Have to imagine Bass has a lot of value right now as any contending team could use a high leverage arm.

Bass tied for 5th in all of baseball this year with 23 “shutdowns” (only 4 “‘meltdowns” including Sunday’s save situation which wasn’t his fault).

[lou]

If we had a legit GM, we could probably get a nice hitter for Bass.

Bass has become somewhat elite ever since he started using his slider as his primary pitch last season. Has an ERA under 3 in over 100 innings as a Marlin now.

Went from failed closer to probably Kim Ng’s best contract (sad).

Have to imagine Bass has a lot of value right now as any contending team could use a high leverage arm.

Bass tied for 5th in all of baseball this year with 23 “shutdowns” (only 4 “‘meltdowns” including Sunday’s save situation which wasn’t his fault).

Don't you keep Bass if you want to contend in 2023? No RP they can get can match him right now for that money? I understand reliever volatility, but do we care about a Lewin/J.Sanchez level sort of good prospect (Bass isn't going to get a Cabrera/Meyer guy right?... then sure move him!) versus trying to win? I don't have the answer here. Just saying.

I feel the move if they choose to do it is packaging an epic Pablo deal - add Wendle, Bass, and Cooper/Berti - and supercharge someone and take their farm. 3 top 100 guys (one play now), and other flyers. Cardinals and Mariners come to mind here. One stop shopping and the Marlins depth makes it easy for the other team as they can plug literally every hole in 1 move.

Won't help 2023 likely, but are they even contending if they move Pablo? This will be an interesting deadline.

[sports24/7]

Don't you keep Bass if you want to contend in 2023? No RP they can get can match him right now for that money? I understand reliever volatility, but do we care about a Lewin/J.Sanchez level sort of good prospect (Bass isn't going to get a Cabrera/Meyer guy right?... then sure move him!) versus trying to win? I don't have the answer here. Just saying.

I feel the move if they choose to do it is packaging an epic Pablo deal - add Wendle, Bass, and Cooper/Berti - and supercharge someone and take their farm. 3 top 100 guys (one play now), and other flyers. Cardinals and Mariners come to mind here. One stop shopping and the Marlins depth makes it easy for the other team as they can plug literally every hole in 1 move.

Won't help 2023 likely, but are they even contending if they move Pablo? This will be an interesting deadline.

My mindset with RP is always buy some cheap ones in FA, and sell high at the deadline if you're out. Like you said, it's such a volatile position, I'm cashing in on that value while I can because he could easily be bad again next year. There are too many examples of this to count, but most recently, look at Bleier. There was a time last year when reportedly he had a nice market. Now he's pretty terrible. The only exceptions for me would be really young, promising high leverage guys with years of control. For the $3M Bass is going to cost next year, I'd rather just take the prospects now and spend that money on another RP, and at that price you should be able to find a decent 7th inning guy (which is what Bass is), or better.

[lou]

My mindset with RP is always buy some cheap ones in FA, and sell high at the deadline if you're out. Like you said, it's such a volatile position, I'm cashing in on that value while I can because he could easily be bad again next year. There are too many examples of this to count, but most recently, look at Bleier. There was a time last year when reportedly he had a nice market. Now he's pretty terrible. The only exceptions for me would be really young, promising high leverage guys with years of control. For the $3M Bass is going to cost next year, I'd rather just take the prospects now and spend that money on another RP, and at that price you should be able to find a decent 7th inning guy (which is what Bass is), or better.

That's the thing, Bleier could be amazing again next year like Bass last year to this. For a cheap team that has to hope for everything to go right, don't you just keep him?

I think this depends on Pablo for me. If he goes, 2023 is over already so sell'em all. If they are keeping him, I think you should keep Bass (or keep Floro in arbitration I guess and bank on a rebound with him to last year?) as you're not going to do better in free agency.

Bass is also a bit more than a 7th inning guy right now. He's a top 10 RP in baseball and floor top 30. Yes I know that says SELL SELL SELL... but do they want to try and win next year? Year 6 already?

This shit is just a mess. Bruce can fix all of this by saying "$110m" and Kim will have so many resources to work with. Very frustrating.

[sports24/7]

Some early trade deadline rumors are coming out. Yesterday Heyman said everyone on the roster is available except for Sandy. Today he says the Dodgers are interested in Cooper, but might be waiting on Soto. Heyman isn't always super plugged in on the Marlins, so who knows, but the Dodgers have been connected to Cooper for a while. I'd only trade him if you're getting a good return back. While he's limited, and injury prone, he's still a solid bat on a team with very few of those. So I'm not selling him for low level prospects or guys with limited realistic upside. As for the first rumor, if Jazz is on the table, I have zero faith in this organization. I don't believe for a second he is, though. Even in something like a Soto deal, it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Frisaro has indicated that teams are calling on Trevor Rogers, and the general consensus is that the league doesn't see him as having too much of a depressed value despite the bad year. I take everything he says with a grain of salt, and this one seems particularly hard to believe, but it would be nice if it's true. If you can sell him now, and get good value on him, do it immediately.

[sports24/7]

That's the thing, Bleier could be amazing again next year like Bass last year to this. For a cheap team that has to hope for everything to go right, don't you just keep him?

I think this depends on Pablo for me. If he goes, 2023 is over already so sell'em all. If they are keeping him, I think you should keep Bass (or keep Floro in arbitration I guess and bank on a rebound with him to last year?) as you're not going to do better in free agency.

Bass is also a bit more than a 7th inning guy right now. He's a top 10 RP in baseball and floor top 30. Yes I know that says SELL SELL SELL... but do they want to try and win next year? Year 6 already?

This shit is just a mess. Bruce can fix all of this by saying "$110m" and Kim will have so many resources to work with. Very frustrating.

Oh, at this point I'd try and keep Bleier because his value is crap. But for me, that's what it all comes down to. I just assume you could get good or bad from guys like that next year, so if the return is good sell, if it isn't, hold.

I think the outlook for 2023 is tough. Like you said, it's hard to sell to the fanbase another rebuilding year, but are they willing to spend the money to do something about it? Pablo or not, I think that's what it's going to take unless Kim Ng suddenly turns into a fantastic GM and pulls some rabbits out of her hat this deadline, and in the winter. I said last offseason that spending mid level money on guys like Garcia and Soler were almost worse than doing nothing because your throwing a decent amount of money at mediocre players that don't make your roster much better, but prevent you from spending that money on actual good players (imagine if they just signed Marte instead of those two). I said the same previously about guys like Dickerson and Duvall, but this organization doesn't seem to understand that. So if they're not willing to spend on an impact bat, you might as well treat 2023 as another rebuild year. If you finally get that you need to shit or get off the pot, and go get a Trae Turner, I think you can be competitive even after trading Pablo, as well as guys like Bass, Cooper, etc. as long as you're trading them in the right deals.

As for Bass specifically, his numbers say he's a top 10 RP in baseball, and hopefully the league agrees. But for the Marlins he's been a 7th inning guy pretty much exclusively, and when they've tried to use him any other way, he hasn't been as good. But even if he was an 8th inning guy, I'm still selling him if someone is offering a good return because he could just as easily be bad again next year, and I think you almost always have to sell high on a RP like him when you're out of contention.

[lou]

Some early trade deadline rumors are coming out. Yesterday Heyman said everyone on the roster is available except for Sandy. Today he says the Dodgers are interested in Cooper, but might be waiting on Soto. Heyman isn't always super plugged in on the Marlins, so who knows, but the Dodgers have been connected to Cooper for a while. I'd only trade him if you're getting a good return back. While he's limited, and injury prone, he's still a solid bat on a team with very few of those. So I'm not selling him for low level prospects or guys with limited realistic upside. As for the first rumor, if Jazz is on the table, I have zero faith in this organization. I don't believe for a second he is, though. Even in something like a Soto deal, it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Frisaro has indicated that teams are calling on Trevor Rogers, and the general consensus is that the league doesn't see him as having too much of a depressed value despite the bad year. I take everything he says with a grain of salt, and this one seems particularly hard to believe, but it would be nice if it's true. If you can sell him now, and get good value on him, do it immediately.

I'm going to disagree with you on Cooper - sell for best deal. You can find corner bats, and let's say they do this which is just under $70m. I don't think Cooper versus Lewin here (who would then pretty much have to be traded DFA'd) moves the needle here for an extra $4m. Use that money on NIMMO!!!

Fortes, Stallings
Lewin
Jazz
_____, Rojas/Wendle
Anderson, Williams
Bleday/Sanchez
_____, ____/Sanchez
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers/Garrett
_____, Bender, Pop, Poteet, Hernandez
Scott, Bleier, Rogers/Garrett


Aguilar, Cooper, Berti, one of Rojas/Wendle, Bass, Floro, Okert, and Sulser.... that has to be getting you a half dozen FV45/40+ level prospects as those guys are perfect cheap role players with control (besides Aguilar) for teams. Bundle them up in a single deal for a better return.


I like that team above a lot if we're talking Nimmo/Swanson/Turner/Correa, then trading out say Salas/Fulton/Morisette/McCambley in a 4-1 for a play now Meyer/Cabrera level SS/CF. Salas is a real prize here. He'd get something good for today and we have Watson/Lewis/Cappe/I guess Nunez still for tomorrow. Frankly, this is effectively ditching Salas and gaining 2-3 comparable prospects to those other guys via trading that lot of Cooper/Berti/Bass above. So the farm is barely impacted.



Or shock us Bruce, and approve $110m and get both Nimmo and Swanson (ditch Anderson on top of this and you can make the dollars work), and then do that prospect trade for another play now OF upgrade (because Garcia sucks and Bleday/Sanchez can go to AAA or be traded for a reliever). Now we're talking. If those blank lines are Nimmo, Swanson, new FV50 play now OF, and Bleday/Sanchez camp winner is the 4th OF to platoon with Garcia (who gets the lefites), that is GREAT. Get Nimmo and Bleday a 1B glove also and LFG.

[Lee Stone]

Very good article by knowledgeable writer - concerning trade targets for Marlins.

Five Players the Marlins Should Target at the Trade Deadline – Fish On The Farm

[lou]

Very good article by knowledgeable writer - concerning trade targets for Marlins.

Five Players the Marlins Should Target at the Trade Deadline – Fish On The Farm

Hard to get the first 4 without Pablo Lopez. Minn. needs Lewis when Correa opts out. Peraza is close to untouchable, but Pablo would absolutely move that needle. He's a top 3 Pablo target to me. I'd be shocked if they gave up Pages for Cooper, but that would be great to get a FV50 for him. Maybe you add Bass to him or take on a bad contract to do it. Not sure Cleveland trades Rocchio in any scenario. They need him opposite Gimenez and are cheap like the Marlins. He'd also be a Pablo only option. Montgomery is a good target for Cooper/Wendle/Rojas/Berti for sure. Benintendi just got a FV40+, FV40, and FV40 prospect.... and all the Marlins guys are better than that with an extra year of control + performance.

If the Berrios trade a year ago and the Benintendi trade now is any indication, they will get A LOT at the deadline if they do trade everyone.

Pablo FV60-50, FV50, FV45-40 (depending on top piece)
Cooper, Wendle, and Berti - FV45 and FV40, maybe two
Bass - FV40+ and FV40
Floro and Okert - FV40 and maybe two
Aguilar salary dump - FV35+

You can easily see 15+ guys with 2 elite guys and 3-5 guys in the Fulton/Burdick/Morisette range.

It does make sense strategically..... just circle 2024. Cycle repeats.

[Erick]

Planning for 2024 when it’s still 2022 and you have Sandy Alcantara locked up in his prime is something the Marlins would do.

[fish16]

obviously you keep trying him as a starter until he proves it wont work, but given luzardo's dominance in a lot of outings for 4 innings and then losing the control in the 5th inning like he did last night in his rehab start, plus his great stuff, he would be a great andrew miller type multi inning reliever weapon if it doesn't work in the rotation.

[lou]

Planning for 2024 when it’s still 2022 and you have Sandy Alcantara locked up in his prime is something the Marlins would do.

Sure is.

Which is why I'm hoping for the $70m keep Pablo team. Which is this:

Fortes, Stallings
Lewin
Jazz
_____, Rojas/Wendle
Anderson, Williams
Bleday/Sanchez
_____, ____/Sanchez
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Pablo, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers/Garrett
_____, Bender, Pop, Poteet, Hernandez
Scott, Bleier, Rogers/Garrett

They'll get something like a FV45, two FV45/40+, FV40+, four FV40, and two FV35+ prospects for Aguilar, Cooper, Berti, one of Rojas/Wendle, Bass, Floro, Okert, and Sulser.

That would effectively be adding these 10 guys to the Marlins system in Marlins prospect terms: Fulton, Burdick/Sixto, Morisette/Nunez, Fortes, R. Hernandez, Henry, Poteet, A. Santos, Nardi, and Fitterer. Not world beaters here, but it's not like they are trading that much. This would really build out the middle of the farm and push the farm out to a legitimate 25 guys even with Cabrera/Bleday/Fortes/Garrett/Poteet/Henry graduations out of it.

Hence, that's the depth set up where maybe they will FINALLY trade 3-4 guys for a longterm SS/CF and at $70m, Bruce better have money for the other - Nimmo/Swanson.

[lou]

obviously you keep trying him as a starter until he proves it wont work, but given luzardo's dominance in a lot of outings for 4 innings and then losing the control in the 5th inning like he did last night in his rehab start, plus his great stuff, he would be a great andrew miller type multi inning reliever weapon if it doesn't work in the rotation.

Yes, but maybe this is an idea to shield innings:

Sandy
Luzardo -> Hernandez
Pablo
Rogers - > Poteet
Cabrera - > Garrett

Call Luzardo/Rogers/Cabrera 2+ times through the lineup, and Hernandez/Poteet/Garrett 1 time through.

If you deploy an opener for the three of them to shield that first inning (at least for Rogers and Cabrera for the time being. Luzardo we can probably trust more), effectively you might get through the game with those 3 pitchers, or maybe you have a closer for the 9th.

I bet we're looking 150 IP for Luzardo/Rogers/Cabrera here and 100+ for Hernandez/Poteet/Garrett which sounds about right. Flip Rogers and Garett if you want also.

If Sandy is throwing 220 IP and Pablo 175, this leave around 300 innings left for the rest of the roster. Bender, Pop, Bleier, Scott, and pick a rotating reliever from AAA can easily handle this.


This is also without Eury, Eder, and Sixto who could really impact this midseason also. Let alone maybe Meyer is OK.


Basically, I like the staff a lot with Pablo. This becomes a lot harder without him. Hence, what's going to happen this week.