2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[Nick]

completely agree they need another arm or 2, but cabrera should absolutely not be it unless its later in the year and they are trying to limit his innings without shutting him down completely. Just because they made a mistake by not getting an arm (yet) doesn't mean they should compound the issue by throwing cabrera in the bullpen and taking away from his development as a starter. He needs to build his innings, not cover for the front offices mistake by holding back his development. If we're in the race come deadline time and we still need an arm, I can be ok with that, but to make him a full time reliever this year when he's so young is just compounding a mistake. They will make this moot I think by going and picking up an arm anyways. They already did that with 1 reliever they got from the cubs who apparently has a really good curveball (but bad results in the majors last year).

I agree with most of what you're saying here, but I don't see, especially with the expanded rosters and the DH, why you couldn't have a day where you Say Elieser you're going to give us 4-5, and then Cabrera you're coming in for the 2nd 4-5. I don't see how that interrupts his development at all, he's getting the same innings, just not the 1st inning.

[lou]

completely agree they need another arm or 2, but cabrera should absolutely not be it unless its later in the year and they are trying to limit his innings without shutting him down completely. Just because they made a mistake by not getting an arm (yet) doesn't mean they should compound the issue by throwing cabrera in the bullpen and taking away from his development as a starter. He needs to build his innings, not cover for the front offices mistake by holding back his development. If we're in the race come deadline time and we still need an arm, I can be ok with that, but to make him a full time reliever this year when he's so young is just compounding a mistake. They will make this moot I think by going and picking up an arm anyways. They already did that with 1 reliever they got from the cubs who apparently has a really good curveball (but bad results in the majors last year).

Cabrera is going to be capped at 125 IP this year and is effectively MLB ready. This idea you have about holding back his development is silly. Him throwing more innings in AAA just means he gets shut down sooner, or becomes a reliever at the end of the year as he won't have more innings to throw at that point. The worst thing the Marlins can do is overthrow guys early. They need to pace them this year. Especially Cabrera off injury. He should be brought on slower.

He should be in the bullpen April-June and stretched out to throw more July-Sep. He should be kept fresh for the end of the year for when it may matter more. This is the Johan Santana plan - and Cabrera isn't as good as Johan when he came up and he was a reliever. See Santana 2003 game log - https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players...=0&season=2003

[lou]

I agree with most of what you're saying here, but I don't see, especially with the expanded rosters and the DH, why you couldn't have a day where you Say Elieser you're going to give us 4-5, and then Cabrera you're coming in for the 2nd 4-5. I don't see how that interrupts his development at all, he's getting the same innings, just not the 1st inning.

Hernandez is also likely capped on innings, maybe he can do a few more than Cabrera.

The idea should be to swap them. Let Hernandez start 15-20 games, with earlier pulls, and bring in the pen, and Cabrera can do 1 inning outings through May, start doing 2 in June, 3 in July, and 4-5+ in August/September. Once we hit July/August, start scaling Hernandez down.

Hernandez + Cabrera = 250 innings. Spread them out accordingly at the MLB level.

[Nick]

I wouldn't cap Hernandez. He's not going to go past the 5th in many games. Even if he starts 30 games that's only 150. He'll be turning 27 within a month, 4th year with the club, and with what's coming behind him, this is the make or break year from him. He's gotta show what he has for a full season.

[fish16]

I agree with most of what you're saying here, but I don't see, especially with the expanded rosters and the DH, why you couldn't have a day where you Say Elieser you're going to give us 4-5, and then Cabrera you're coming in for the 2nd 4-5. I don't see how that interrupts his development at all, he's getting the same innings, just not the 1st inning.

if that's the case fine, but that doesn't improve the parts of your bullpen you're looking to improve, which is the set up and closer roles on most nights. If you're doing that, and you stack them, he;s essentially in the rotation and pitching once every 5th day like a starter.

[Nick]

Cabrera’s been a little erratic, could be more efficient with his pitches, but his stuff looks electric.

[lou]

I wouldn't cap Hernandez. He's not going to go past the 5th in many games. Even if he starts 30 games that's only 150. He'll be turning 27 within a month, 4th year with the club, and with what's coming behind him, this is the make or break year from him. He's gotta show what he has for a full season.

But 125ish IP is a full season for him. It's arm health. He's been hurt.

2021 - 75 IP
2020 - 25
2019 - 130
2018 - 82
2017 - 73
2016 - 107
2015 - 65
2014 - 45
2013 - 57
2012 - 35
(Jesus. Hernandez has been around forever)

I think you aim for previous high (130). Doubling innings seems like a bad idea. If he's cruising, low stress innings, he might be able to handle some more though. FG projections have him between 89-140 IP, and if we take out the high/low outliers, the average is about 125 IP exactly. Give him 15-20 starts and around 80-100 IP, and move him to the pen to come out in 2 inning bursts. Do the exact opposite with Cabrera and flip them in July.

[fish16]

Cabrera is going to be capped at 125 IP this year and is effectively MLB ready. This idea you have about holding back his development is silly. Him throwing more innings in AAA just means he gets shut down sooner, or becomes a reliever at the end of the year as he won't have more innings to throw at that point. The worst thing the Marlins can do is overthrow guys early. They need to pace them this year. Especially Cabrera off injury. He should be brought on slower.

He should be in the bullpen April-June and stretched out to throw more July-Sep. He should be kept fresh for the end of the year for when it may matter more. This is the Johan Santana plan - and Cabrera isn't as good as Johan when he came up and he was a reliever. See Santana 2003 game log - https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players...=0&season=2003

it is holding back his development when he's focused on coming out of the pen for a few innings vs starting every 5th day at whatever level. We've seen it time and time again, coming out of the bullpen requires a different repertoire and you can get away with fewer pitches. Id rather him continue going 5+ innings every 5th day and just make a deal for a few "Bleier" types like we did a few years ago. There is no need to fuck with his development as a starter because the front office didn't address the bullpen. Go trade a few minor prospects for a couple arms and don't fuck with a starting pitcher's development as a starter. I want him getting opportunities to face hitters for 2nd, 3rd, 4th times through the lineup. That's what he will need to do as a starter and he wont get that chance as a reliever. It's not that important, just go find a few bullpen arms and bolster the pen.

He's a top 50 prospect, let him keep building his arm up as a starter and then if you need to limit his innings later in the year do that then.

this is a moot point because the marlins arent putting him in the bullpen yet. It's major league rotation or AAA.

[fish16]

I wouldn't cap Hernandez. He's not going to go past the 5th in many games. Even if he starts 30 games that's only 150. He'll be turning 27 within a month, 4th year with the club, and with what's coming behind him, this is the make or break year from him. He's gotta show what he has for a full season.

they should have kept thompson and stacked him and elieser. They both are 2 times through the lineup guys at max. That would have been the stacking situation that made the most sense. Both guys were effective 2 times through the lineup max and it would keep your bullpen rested as much as possible for 20% of your games.

[fish16]

But 125ish IP is a full season for him. It's arm health. He's been hurt.

2021 - 75 IP
2020 - 25
2019 - 130
2018 - 82
2017 - 73
2016 - 107
2015 - 65
2014 - 45
2013 - 57
2012 - 35
(Jesus. Hernandez has been around forever)

I think you aim for previous high (130). Doubling innings seems like a bad idea. If he's cruising, low stress innings, he might be able to handle some more though. FG projections have him between 89-140 IP, and if we take out the high/low outliers, the average is about 125 IP exactly. Give him 15-20 starts and around 80-100 IP, and move him to the pen to come out in 2 inning bursts. Do the exact opposite with Cabrera and flip them in July.

Im cool with that plan for elieser as Meyer and/or caberera will be ready to roll by that point in the big leagues, but id let cabrera and Meyer keep developing in AAA instead of doing that move midway through the year.

[fish16]

with how much they are looking at astudillo, looks like the bench to start the year will be- Backup C (Quintana or Henry), Berti, Astudillo, Deshields or Quinn, and then maybe they keep both deshields and quinn and they both make it.

[fish16]

id love to see what our starters numbers look like thus far in spring. it feels like each one of them have been somewhat dominant.

[fish16]

holy shit opening day is next Friday already. that's awesome.

[lou]

it is holding back his development when he's focused on coming out of the pen for a few innings vs starting every 5th day at whatever level. We've seen it time and time again, coming out of the bullpen requires a different repertoire and you can get away with fewer pitches. Id rather him continue going 5+ innings every 5th day and just make a deal for a few "Bleier" types like we did a few years ago. There is no need to fuck with his development as a starter because the front office didn't address the bullpen. Go trade a few minor prospects for a couple arms and don't fuck with a starting pitcher's development as a starter. I want him getting opportunities to face hitters for 2nd, 3rd, 4th times through the lineup. That's what he will need to do as a starter and he wont get that chance as a reliever. It's not that important, just go find a few bullpen arms and bolster the pen.

He's a top 50 prospect, let him keep building his arm up as a starter and then if you need to limit his innings later in the year do that then.

this is a moot point because the marlins arent putting him in the bullpen yet. It's major league rotation or AAA.

No it's not. He'd be fine. It is beyond dramatic to think this fucks with his development. Johan Santana was certainly a disaster. You sound like 2002 Twins fans. Cabrera is one of the best 13 pitchers in the organization. I'd rather him not run out of innings in August. Go look at the Cardinals, they play plenty of guys in their bullpen that are top 50 guys. Just stop. This is a dumb take. Jesus.

That being said, they should trade for an arm at this point if Floro is hurt.

[lou]

they should have kept thompson and stacked him and elieser. They both are 2 times through the lineup guys at max. That would have been the stacking situation that made the most sense. Both guys were effective 2 times through the lineup max and it would keep your bullpen rested as much as possible for 20% of your games.

No Stallings is better - the problem there is Sixto then got hurt. Sixto should also be getting 125 IP at the MLB level and now it's maybe 25.