2023 Game Thread

[Namaste]

Phillies coming in to this series as the ONLY team to sweep the Rays in Tampa this season. Yikes.

[fish16]

Great pitching matchups this weekend. I expect huge crowds. Hoping for 2 of 3 to go into the break

[lou]

Eury is going to max at 110 + playoff reserve says the organization according to Mish. It's 5 starts and a shut down. Or just move him to the pen. It'll be pretty easy to have Eury throw 1+ innings every 4 calendar days. Suggesting this is a problem throw day wise is silly. Please feel free to audit the math. Every 4 calendar days. I would rather have Eury pitching then shut down. I think shutting guys down early is what impacts them health wise.

Also, I don't think the team is going to completely fall apart, but the wild card will be a huge challenge unless big changes are made. The last 8 games they have played, they won convincingly once, three tight wins including due to errors, being out hit with late heroics, and no hit for 7, and their butts kicked in 4 others. If you can't see the writing on the wall, I don't know what to tell you. This could have been 1-7 or 2-6 quickly. They have the best (by far) 1 run and extra W/L in the league. There is a luck component to that, just as last year there was a luck component as to how unlucky they were with 1 run losses and why the lee/maddawg predictions this preseason were off based on solely those games. You argued today they should get Luis Fucking Robert and Candelario, the 4th (FOURTH) and 27th best position players per WAR in baseball. That's a super duper star and a borderline all star. So you agree with me - they should make some big fucking moves because they need them?? Why are you always so angry? Have a beer, go outside for a walk.

[fish16]

Eury is going to max at 110 + playoff reserve says the organization according to Mish. It's 5 starts and a shut down. Or just move him to the pen. It'll be pretty easy to have Eury throw 1+ innings every 4 calendar days. Suggesting this is a problem throw day wise is silly. Please feel free to audit the math. Every 4 calendar days. I would rather have Eury pitching then shut down. I think shutting guys down early is what impacts them health wise.

Also, I don't think the team is going to completely fall apart, but the wild card will be a huge challenge unless big changes are made. The last 8 games they have played, they won convincingly once, three tight wins including due to errors, being out hit with late heroics, and no hit for 7, and their butts kicked in 4 others. If you can't see the writing on the wall, I don't know what to tell you. This could have been 1-7 or 2-6 quickly. They have the best (by far) 1 run and extra W/L in the league. There is a luck component to that, just as last year there was a luck component as to how unlucky they were with 1 run losses and why the lee/maddawg predictions this preseason were off based on solely those games. You argued today they should get Luis Fucking Robert and Candelario, the 4th (FOURTH) and 27th best position players per WAR in baseball. That's a super duper star and a borderline all star. So you agree with me - they should make some big fucking moves because they need them?? Why are you always so angry? Have a beer, go outside for a walk.

No one is angry. You just want to consistently say they are getting lucky because they win close games. News flash- they built a team that wins close games with some of the best starting pitching in baseball, a good bullpen with 4 lefties having amazing years, and a lineup that is contact oriented being 3rd in the entire league in average but that needs a middle of the order bat that can help drive in runs. like I said in the beginning of the year, DLC is a mediocre outfielder with an average bat, terrible fielding, and bad baserunning and has no business hitting 3rd on a consistent basis.

Luis Robert is a pipe dream. They don’t have what it takes to get him. They will be fine with some sort of impact middle of the order bat like candelario who again will not cost a ton and a catcher upgrade and maybe another quality bench outfielder. The bigger upgrade to me is going to be the bullpen and maybe a backend rotation arm if Cabrera or rogers aren’t close to returning. They will eventually start losing these close games if the likes of lindgren, Soriano, Brazoban, chargois, Floro, etc continue to be anywhere near this bullpen

No one has argued they don’t need to make a few moves, but it’s the constant pointing out of the schedule as if they are only 13 games over .500 because of the schedule and luck that is absurd. What a shock, a team that has an elite rotation, good bullpen, and is elite at making contact has a knack for winning close games. It’s almost as if that was the plan in the offseason after being completely awful last year because of their bad bullpen and one of the worst lineups.

you talk about them getting no hit for 7 innings as if luzardo also didn’t limit them to 1 hit over 6 innings as well. Might be time to realize that this team just has an unreal rotation that keeps them in almost every single game and that it isn’t luck. The entire Staff as a whole throws absolute gas. We lead the league by far in pitches over 97 mph as a team.

[fish16]

I also find it incredibly stupid to shut eury down due to innings limit to protect his health and then throw him sparingly out of the bullpen in a role he has never been in before.

If he only has say 10 innings in that scenario and you shut him down after 5 more starts and put him in the bullpen, you are not only jeopardizing his health more by pitching in a role he has never been in, but you are hamstringing your bullpen for the last month and a half or so of the season. Theoretically you can help that with September call ups, but who are we calling up to help out of the pen in key games?

increase the innings limit to 125-130 (what does 10 innings matter if he feels fine), skip a couple starts, and get him to as late in the year as possible. Then use him as a weapon out of the bullpen in the playoffs in 1 inning stints. I think they obviously have to be cautious with him, but babying him in the name of keeping him healthy has very rarely worked to keep guys injury free throughout their career. Keep pitching him while making sure his arm feels fine. 120 is just a made up number that they are drawing in the sand as a cutoff. Limit him to 5, max 6 innings a start and you can draw it out a lot closer to the end of the year. If they increase it to 130 and limit him to 5 great innings per start, you can get 9 more starts out of him. Then just shut him down or use him very sparingly out of the bullpen as a weapon.

[Nick]

Now this is a huge series. In my eyes if there is one team that is the biggest threat to us making the playoffs it's the Phillies. 10 games left with them I could very easily see those 10 games swinging us one way or the other when it comes to the rest of the season.

[fish16]

There are examples of pitchers who were given arbitrary innings limits and then got hurt anyways and some that threw lots of innings and never had significant arm injuries-

Strasburg- nationals cut him off and he has been hurt consistently throughout his career.
Jose Fernandez- marlins cut him off mid september his rookie year to prevent injury and he got hurt and needed tommy john literally a month into the next year.
The dodgers were absurdly careful with julio urias coming up and he had a ton of arm injuries anyways.

Clayton Kershaw- went from 36 innings after being drafted to 122 the next year, to 168 combined innings the next year at 20 years old
Felix hernandez threw 69 innings at 17 and then 150 at 18 and was the single most durable pitcher in the league for like 10 full years in a row. Some guys are just built differently and have the mechanics to throw more innings earlier than others without significantly risking injury.
Spencer strider- went from throwing 12 innings his last year at clemson to 94 his first minor league season to 131 last year and it would have been more had he started the year in the rotation instead of the bullpen and then being so good that they had to put him in the rotation.

Im not saying pitch eury until his arm falls off, but this idea that you cut off a pitcher at a completely arbitrary amount of innings and it prevents injuries is just nonsense. Id look closer at the pitchers mechanics and how their throwing style creates potential injury risk on the arm. If Eury feels fine, there should be no reason he cant go to 130 and then 140 with some playoff innings if we get there. You monitor the pitcher, you make sure they feel fine before you push him to those lengths, you help him mechanically by making sure he isnt putting potential injury producing risk on every pitch, and you evaluate on a day by day basis. If he starts to look or feel fatigued, then you shut him down. These arbitrary innings limits leading to shut downs before the year ends are just not backed up by any kind of scientific data. Take it on a case by case basis. eury is 6'8 220 lbs and they are treating him like he is sixto. It's just not backed by any kind of actual data that this prevents injuries by cutting him off at 120 as opposed to 130 or 140. it's just a completely made up number.

https://www.redlegnation.com/2016/07...nnings-limits/

And that's not even getting into the fact that going based off of innings pitched as opposed to pitches thrown is beyond dumb. Obviously this is an extreme but If Eury throws 180 pitches over 5 innings as opposed to 70 over 5, why is that treated the same? It's just a completely archaic way of looking at preventing injuries.

[fish16]

Now this is a huge series. In my eyes if there is one team that is the biggest threat to us making the playoffs it's the Phillies. 10 games left with them I could very easily see those 10 games swinging us one way or the other when it comes to the rest of the season.

absolutely, and we are going head to head pitching wise like a playoff series pretty much. We have Sandy, Garrett, Luzardo. They have Wheeler, Suarez, and Nola. Should be a fun weekend. Big opportunity to create some space between us heading into the all star break. I doubt either team sweeps though but a big opportunity if they do.

[rmc523]

Would switching to some sort of 6-man rotation help with the Eury situation?

[rmc523]

Last night was disappointing, as they had so many oppurtunities but could never get that big hit. Sweeping all 4 would've been awesome, but taking 3 of 4 was still great.

[Nick]

I'm no expert, but if it were up to me, I'd just keep him on a real strict pitch limit (75-80 pitches) instead of worrying about an inning limit. If you see or he tells you he's wearing down, then you back off, but I think switching him from starters workload to a routine out of the pen could lead to its own issues. We're in a playoff race, shutting him down for a non-injury related reason is out of the question IMO. Who knows when this opportunity will arise again? We've had great players come and go who never had this opportunity with us.

[lou]

They have had the 21st easiest schedule - https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos. And 5th hardest ROS - https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remain...edule_strength. If you don't think this is going to be very impactful to the bottom line, especially without Jazz, I don't know what to say. They absolutely have benefited from the May/June schedule and to their credit, they absolutely took advantage of it. But you really should go look at August and the team's negative run differential isn't going to go away as-is, and we can't just swap out all the Atlanta games to say they are good against everyone else as that still is who they are.

Team's regress to normal W/L on 1 run games. You have made this argument yourself as to how BAD they were last year on this, which you are right about, but the inverse is also true and we have to fight the urge to think this is 100% real as it is not. The best team with 1 run games was 30-17 (.638) last year. In 2021, 31-17 (.645). In 2019, 38-16. (.703). In 2018, 31-14 (.688). The Marlins are 21-5 (.807). This is unbelievable and a clear area where they will regress. In a wild card calculation where "1" game may be a deciding factor, this is a big deal (Note the Phillies and Giants have played harder schedules and have easier schedules here on out). This rate is not sustainable unless we believe the Marlins have the most magic of maybe any baseball team ever. How many more late inning meltdowns (like dribbles thrown over 1B head) are going to happen? It could happen, but that's not what you bet the season on.

Also, team's don't scale young arms typically under 24 years old more than 30 innings a year. Eury threw 77 last year. This is why 110 innings is what they are shooting for with Eury. They have also said this. It's not a made up number for Eury. This is what nearly everyone always does until the guys have been in their weight and workout programs for years and are fully built out so they can handle a load (i.e. why Luzardo and Garrett are going to throw around 150). This is likely even more so for Eury since he is so huge and really does need to fill out. Have we already forgotten they threw Jose Fernandez too hard and he blew his arm out at 21 years old? Your Strider example innings per year (94-133-98 and counting) actually supports this here BTW. That's what they should be doing, and note Strider is older so they can push him harder than Eury as he is more built up after years being a baseball player. Given the innings Eury has thrown are not stressful as he is killing people, they may let him go another few (maybe 10) so I don't disagree with that concept on "pitches" or "stress," but then this swings to a debate over do you just let him rip in the regular season or save some of that for some short burst playoff time? For me, I'd expect success and save him for some short burst playoff appearances and keep him throwing all year even if in limited quantities. Maybe what they are thinking here is to a combo of what you and I just suggested - maybe a July shut down is coming (deflect the super 2, save some innings), he throws 5 or so starts in August (harder schedule, use best arms during it, etc.), and a September RP conversion happens then. That makes sense to me with a light pause if they think they can manage the innings better that way. The big picture here is 110 innings is not babying him. That should be the regular season goal with saving some limited playoff inventory (Dontrelle threw 12 postseason innings in 2003 for an example). Eury throwing 140 innings this year in any capacity is malpractice.

Ultimately, they need some bats, and big ones. They might need an arm but maybe Cueto figures it out or Rogers/Cabrera start eating major major innings and they do get a Meyer September boost for 10+ reliever innings. It's not over thinking it. They are better than expected, but there is also a beneficial schedule/luck component and that begins to change rapidly here on out. They need more guys to stave off the Phillies and Giants (who each will add as those are real franchises and do things like that) as they have to beat at least 1 of them (maybe a central team also but probably not). Let's put the homerism aside. This season has been great, but the front offie and ownership is dropping the ball right now with not running up the score until things get much harder.

[rmc523]

I'm no expert, but if it were up to me, I'd just keep him on a real strict pitch limit (75-80 pitches) instead of worrying about an inning limit. If you see or he tells you he's wearing down, then you back off, but I think switching him from starters workload to a routine out of the pen could lead to its own issues. We're in a playoff race, shutting him down for a non-injury related reason is out of the question IMO. Who knows when this opportunity will arise again? We've had great players come and go who never had this opportunity with us.

Yeah, this makes sense too - I agree changing up his complete routine when he's already beyond what he's done in the past sounds like a recipe for injury.

[rmc523]

They have had the 21st easiest schedule - https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos. And 5th hardest ROS - https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remain...edule_strength. If you don't think this is going to be very impactful to the bottom line, especially without Jazz, I don't know what to say. They absolutely have benefited from the May/June schedule and to their credit, they absolutely took advantage of it. But you really should go look at August and the team's negative run differential isn't going to go away as-is, and we can't just swap out all the Atlanta games to say they are good against everyone else as that still is who they are.

Team's regress to normal W/L on 1 run games. You have made this argument yourself as to how BAD they were last year on this, which you are right about, but the inverse is also true and we have to fight the urge to think this is 100% real as it is not. The best team with 1 run games was 30-17 (.638) last year. In 2021, 31-17 (.645). In 2019, 38-16. (.703). In 2018, 31-14 (.688). The Marlins are 21-5 (.807). This is unbelievable and a clear area where they will regress. In a wild card calculation where "1" game may be a deciding factor, this is a big deal (Note the Phillies and Giants have played harder schedules and have easier schedules here on out). This rate is not sustainable unless we believe the Marlins have the most magic of maybe any baseball team ever. How many more late inning meltdowns (like dribbles thrown over 1B head) are going to happen? It could happen, but that's not what you bet the season on.

Also, team's don't scale young arms typically under 24 years old more than 30 innings a year. Eury threw 77 last year. This is why 110 innings is what they are shooting for with Eury. They have also said this. It's not a made up number for Eury. This is what nearly everyone always does until the guys have been in their weight and workout programs for years and are fully built out so they can handle a load (i.e. why Luzardo and Garrett are going to throw around 150). This is likely even more so for Eury since he is so huge and really does need to fill out. Have we already forgotten they threw Jose Fernandez too hard and he blew his arm out at 21 years old? Your Strider example innings per year (94-133-98 and counting) actually supports this here BTW. That's what they should be doing, and note Strider is older so they can push him harder than Eury as he is more built up after years being a baseball player. Given the innings Eury has thrown are not stressful as he is killing people, they may let him go another few (maybe 10) so I don't disagree with that concept on "pitches" or "stress," but then this swings to a debate over do you just let him rip in the regular season or save some of that for some short burst playoff time? For me, I'd expect success and save him for some short burst playoff appearances and keep him throwing all year even if in limited quantities. Maybe what they are thinking here is to a combo of what you and I just suggested - maybe a July shut down is coming (deflect the super 2, save some innings), he throws 5 or so starts in August (harder schedule, use best arms during it, etc.), and a September RP conversion happens then. That makes sense to me with a light pause if they think they can manage the innings better that way. The big picture here is 110 innings is not babying him. That should be the regular season goal with saving some limited playoff inventory (Dontrelle threw 12 postseason innings in 2003 for an example). Eury throwing 140 innings this year in any capacity is malpractice.

Ultimately, they need some bats, and big ones. They might need an arm but maybe Cueto figures it out or Rogers/Cabrera start eating major major innings and they do get a Meyer September boost for 10+ reliever innings. It's not over thinking it. They are better than expected, but there is also a beneficial schedule/luck component and that begins to change rapidly here on out. They need more guys to stave off the Phillies and Giants (who each will add as those are real franchises and do things like that) as they have to beat at least 1 of them (maybe a central team also but probably not). Let's put the homerism aside. This season has been great, but the front offie and ownership is dropping the ball right now with not running up the score until things get much harder.

I feel like you're implying we're all saying do nothing, they're good as is, which isn't the case...

I'm all for improvements all around.

[Nick]

They have had the 21st easiest schedule - https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos. And 5th hardest ROS - https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remain...edule_strength. If you don't think this is going to be very impactful to the bottom line, especially without Jazz, I don't know what to say. They absolutely have benefited from the May/June schedule and to their credit, they absolutely took advantage of it. But you really should go look at August and the team's negative run differential isn't going to go away as-is, and we can't just swap out all the Atlanta games to say they are good against everyone else as that still is who they are.

Team's regress to normal W/L on 1 run games. You have made this argument yourself as to how BAD they were last year on this, which you are right about, but the inverse is also true and we have to fight the urge to think this is 100% real as it is not. The best team with 1 run games was 30-17 (.638) last year. In 2021, 31-17 (.645). In 2019, 38-16. (.703). In 2018, 31-14 (.688). The Marlins are 21-5 (.807). This is unbelievable and a clear area where they will regress. In a wild card calculation where "1" game may be a deciding factor, this is a big deal (Note the Phillies and Giants have played harder schedules and have easier schedules here on out). This rate is not sustainable unless we believe the Marlins have the most magic of maybe any baseball team ever. How many more late inning meltdowns (like dribbles thrown over 1B head) are going to happen? It could happen, but that's not what you bet the season on.

Also, team's don't scale young arms typically under 24 years old more than 30 innings a year. Eury threw 77 last year. This is why 110 innings is what they are shooting for with Eury. They have also said this. It's not a made up number for Eury. This is what nearly everyone always does until the guys have been in their weight and workout programs for years and are fully built out so they can handle a load (i.e. why Luzardo and Garrett are going to throw around 150). This is likely even more so for Eury since he is so huge and really does need to fill out. Have we already forgotten they threw Jose Fernandez too hard and he blew his arm out at 21 years old? Your Strider example innings per year (94-133-98 and counting) actually supports this here BTW. That's what they should be doing, and note Strider is older so they can push him harder than Eury as he is more built up after years being a baseball player. Given the innings Eury has thrown are not stressful as he is killing people, they may let him go another few (maybe 10) so I don't disagree with that concept on "pitches" or "stress," but then this swings to a debate over do you just let him rip in the regular season or save some of that for some short burst playoff time? For me, I'd expect success and save him for some short burst playoff appearances and keep him throwing all year even if in limited quantities. Maybe what they are thinking here is to a combo of what you and I just suggested - maybe a July shut down is coming (deflect the super 2, save some innings), he throws 5 or so starts in August (harder schedule, use best arms during it, etc.), and a September RP conversion happens then. That makes sense to me with a light pause if they think they can manage the innings better that way. The big picture here is 110 innings is not babying him. That should be the regular season goal with saving some limited playoff inventory (Dontrelle threw 12 postseason innings in 2003 for an example). Eury throwing 140 innings this year in any capacity is malpractice.

Ultimately, they need some bats, and big ones. They might need an arm but maybe Cueto figures it out or Rogers/Cabrera start eating major major innings and they do get a Meyer September boost for 10+ reliever innings. It's not over thinking it. They are better than expected, but there is also a beneficial schedule/luck component and that begins to change rapidly here on out. They need more guys to stave off the Phillies and Giants (who each will add as those are real franchises and do things like that) as they have to beat at least 1 of them (maybe a central team also but probably not). Let's put the homerism aside. This season has been great, but the front offie and ownership is dropping the ball right now with not running up the score until things get much harder.

You're dead on when it comes to this team being fortunate with the schedule and 1-run games, and needing help to get us to the playoffs, if this team does not improve the team in some significant way through a trade it won't make the playoffs, you can quote me on that.

But I can't get behind what you're saying about Eury. I think you're a little too insistent on the numbers being clean and what those numbers mean on the field and in life. (maybe I'm not wording that the best) There is no magical innings number that's going to keep Eury healthy. Like I said above, you do the best you can to limit his exertion from game to game, you monitor what you're seeing from him game to game. You make sure he is letting you know how he is feeling, and any sign of trouble you back off, but to change what he's doing based on some arbitrary innings number is not practical especially in the middle of a playoff race. We may never need him more than we need him now, and that has to play into this decision.