2023 Game Thread

[fish16]

Arraez hitting .438. Highest ba in April since bonds in 2004. Pablo also back up to a 4 era

[Nick]

36 more wins to 52.

[Namaste]

25% to make the playofffs on Fangraphs. I know it’s very early but fok it.

[rmc523]

Nice for them to finally get a sweep. But I'll take continual 2 of 3, and be happy with 1 of 3 from the Braves and Mets lol.

[Nick]

We really need Sandy to be 2022 Sandy on Tuesday.

[Namaste]

Braves have a road doubleheader today. Maybe that will tire turn out a little so we can win Tuesday?

[fish16]

wendle should be back sometime this week. gotta wonder what the corresponding move will be. Feels like Hampson has played well enough to stay, but not sure who else would go. Unfortunate for him but seems like he might get roster crunched back to AAA or DFA'd.

[fish16]

one reason we faired really well in april- our bats hit lefties. Last year we were historically bad against lefties. So far this year we have a .778 OPS

[fish16]

Now that we are a month in, here is where we are league wide in terms of team hitting stats: 15th in BA, 23rd in OBP, 19th in slugging, 20th in OPS, 27th in walks, 14th most K's, 5th in SB's. but we are 28th in runs scored because of how many GIDP we have (looking at you Segura).

Compared to last year's numbers: last year we were 28th in BA, 27th in OBP, 28th in slugging, 27th in OPS, 27th in walks, 9th most k's. 2nd in SB's, also 28th in runs scored.

They need to stop grounding into double plays at the wrong times, but the incremental improvements in the lineup plus adding Puk have allowed us to succeed so far despite a fairly hard schedule. And with the new scheduling system, we've already played half of our games against the mets this year and after this week we will have played half of our braves games as well, plus no games yet against the Nats or some of the other worst teams in the league.

We need to get cueto and rogers back and healthy, but all in all, it looks like Ng did a pretty good job improving the team. We still need another bat or 2, but given her salary restrictions, she did well. Arraez is a star, Gurriel and Puk and Barnes have been decent to great. Only real terrible move so far is segura, and he has had complete shit luck and will turn it around soon you have to think. His babip is .247, his BB rate is slightly down and K rate is slightly up, but his statcast hard hit % is the highest of his career, as is his average exit velocity. It's a matter of time for him until they fall for hits.

[Namaste]

Only real terrible move so far is segura.

The results (so far) have been terrible. But it was not a terrible move.

The only terrible move of the off-season was made by Sherman when he didn’t sign Correa/Trea Turner/Xander. Kim Ng did a great job with the resources she had available. Yeah, we are 10-0 in one run games but we’ve lost 90% of Sandy’s starts and Rogers and Cueto are hurt. That’s huge.

[fish16]

The results (so far) have been terrible. But it was not a terrible move.

The only terrible move of the off-season was made by Sherman when he didn’t sign Correa/Trea Turner/Xander. Kim Ng did a great job with the resources she had available. Yeah, we are 10-0 in one run games but we’ve lost 90% of Sandy’s starts and Rogers and Cueto are hurt. That’s huge.

i completely agree. his peripherals are just as good if not better than his career numbers. He has gotten terrible luck. He's hit into a ridiculous amount of double plays. I'm not worried about him. On a positive note with him, fangraphs has him grading out positively defensively at 3b. On that note, Jazz also has graded positively defensively, For all the talk of moving guys around to their non-traditional positions, we have played fine defensively.

Ng did everything she could to improve the team in the margins, and she did very well. We still need one more bat, but arraez being added has been huge, and soler being back to his normal self has made us passable offensively, which is really all we could do. That combined with Puk closing games out when we actually do have leads have led us to having a winning record thus far. We will regress at some point in the 1 run games, but i doubt it's anywhere near as bad as it was last year. I said it a bunch in the offseason, but we talked about being "unlucky" in 1 run games last year when i dont really think luck had anything to do with it. When you have a terrible lineup and back end of the bullpen, you will lose a lot of close games. With a legit closer and a team that makes contact a whole hell of a lot better this year, their performance in close games had to be expected.

Skip plus the new additions also just makes this team feel unlike it has felt in any recent year other than 2020. There is new blood in there, improvements in the margin, and it results in an expectation to win close games that we didnt have in the last few years.

[rmc523]

i completely agree. his peripherals are just as good if not better than his career numbers. He has gotten terrible luck. He's hit into a ridiculous amount of double plays. I'm not worried about him. On a positive note with him, fangraphs has him grading out positively defensively at 3b. On that note, Jazz also has graded positively defensively, For all the talk of moving guys around to their non-traditional positions, we have played fine defensively.

Ng did everything she could to improve the team in the margins, and she did very well. We still need one more bat, but arraez being added has been huge, and soler being back to his normal self has made us passable offensively, which is really all we could do. That combined with Puk closing games out when we actually do have leads have led us to having a winning record thus far. We will regress at some point in the 1 run games, but i doubt it's anywhere near as bad as it was last year. I said it a bunch in the offseason, but we talked about being "unlucky" in 1 run games last year when i dont really think luck had anything to do with it. When you have a terrible lineup and back end of the bullpen, you will lose a lot of close games. With a legit closer and a team that makes contact a whole hell of a lot better this year, their performance in close games had to be expected.

Skip plus the new additions also just makes this team feel unlike it has felt in any recent year other than 2020. There is new blood in there, improvements in the margin, and it results in an expectation to win close games that we didnt have in the last few years.

Don't forget the Don factor of waving the white flag halfway through every game.

[lou]

The results (so far) have been terrible. But it was not a terrible move.

The only terrible move of the off-season was made by Sherman when he didn’t sign Correa/Trea Turner/Xander. Kim Ng did a great job with the resources she had available. Yeah, we are 10-0 in one run games but we’ve lost 90% of Sandy’s starts and Rogers and Cueto are hurt. That’s huge.

I don't know if we can go that far. There are valuable minor league + secondary pitching pieces, and there could easily have been some other trade for another bat. I am sympathetic to her, but she also isn't wheeling and dealing like a small market GM needs to. OR just admit next year is circled and then it all makes sense (I think this is the internal plan as discussed). Hampson/Yuli are doing well to cover this a little for lack of another move at the moment, but that is a bottom dropping out situation for them at any moment, as well it's not like Sanchez, Garcia, Segura, Stallings, etc. are lighting it up and poised to quickly rebound. And Soler and DLC have had their hot streak moments, but they are not showing themselves to be 2+ WAR players at the moment. The Marlins team positional WAR is 1.5. Nimmo is 1.6 and Boegarts 1.7 for perspective. So yes, that's Sherman right there in a nutshell, but they have juice for another move and aren't making it. Yet anyways.

[lou]

Just want to mention, Jazz is 46th percentile outs above average, 78th OF jump, and 80th arm strength. Jazz has an average profile defensively on fangraphs. Jazz is going to be fine out there if that's a first month stat line even if a SSS. I am buying this move to CF and I am a bit surprised he is "this good" so fast.

Conversely, Arraez is 2nd percentile OAA, 10th arm strength on statcast. Fangraphs has a below average defense rating. This is trending quickly to getting off 2B to 1B or DH and he isn't doing well as previous stats indicated. That arm isn't playing in LF. If he's going to have a 1.050 OPS, yes who cares where he is as that's a bit different than an .825 OPS guy, but I think this is one to monitor and hopefully not a SSS. He was real solid at 1B last year for Minnesota. I think I mentioned this before, but longterm we should probably be thinking 100+ games at 1B and 40+ games at 2B.

Segura is very average at 3B so far.


Depending on what happens in another 6 weeks, might be worth considering shifting Segura and Arraez to the right side, and playing Soler in the OF more if the other dudes stop hitting. Not the defensive alignment I want, but it would be maximizing what they can. Berti-Wendle is probably a real good defensive left side. Maybe a trade for a longterm 3B would make sense too (if a SS is unattainable, etc.), and just deal with Cappe positionally in the future and pray he stays at SS. Sorry Groshans. Maybe take some 2B reps and see if you can form a platoon with Edwards.

Just saying here, having Soler in the OF is likely worth a much better 1B/2B/3B defensive alignment.

[fish16]

I don't know if we can go that far. There are valuable minor league + secondary pitching pieces, and there could easily have been some other trade for another bat. I am sympathetic to her, but she also isn't wheeling and dealing like a small market GM needs to. OR just admit next year is circled and then it all makes sense (I think this is the internal plan as discussed). Hampson/Yuli are doing well to cover this a little for lack of another move at the moment, but that is a bottom dropping out situation for them at any moment, as well it's not like Sanchez, Garcia, Segura, Stallings, etc. are lighting it up and poised to quickly rebound. And Soler and DLC have had their hot streak moments, but they are not showing themselves to be 2+ WAR players at the moment. The Marlins team positional WAR is 1.5. Nimmo is 1.6 and Boegarts 1.7 for perspective. So yes, that's Sherman right there in a nutshell, but they have juice for another move and aren't making it. Yet anyways.

who could have seen that coming?? Soler was never going to be a 2 WAR player because he DH's most days. As long as he doesnt fall off the map, he's perfect as is with an OPS around .800. Low OBP, tons of power, will have hot streaks. They need an improvement at C because Stallings is awful and Fortes isnt a starter, and they need an improvement over DLC and SS. As i said and will continue to say, DLC is a nice 4th OF, he shouldnt be a full time starter. They need to find and improvement over him at the deadline.