2023 Game Thread

[Namaste]

That was a huge win. JT being injured is brutal.

[fish16]

That was a huge win. JT being injured is brutal.

Apparently it’s just back soreness and not an oblique injury so that’s good news at least

[lou]

Garrett seems like a 1-2 times through the lineup guy for sure. Maybe he starts throwing a little harder so he gets squared up a little less and becomes more, but seems like a perfect "bulk" reliever. I don't think he's going to be on the team absent injuries though. Looks to me he is going to be considered the 14th or 15th arm this year and they will keep him fully stretched out. I'm not sure I like this idea as I think he'll really play up in the pen. But......

I think it's interesting Smeltzer is up. They just guaranteed his contract ($1m) very early in the season, so payroll just went up a million. They must see something as they lose that money if they ditch him. Maybe this is the next Thompson as these cheapskates don't guarantee money for nothing. I do trust them on the pitching so that is interesting.

So the healthy pen is:

Floro, Chargois, Barnes, Enright
Puk, Scott, Okert, Smeltzer

With Garrett (Cueto), Brazoban (Enright), and Nardi (Okert) the replacements. Nance, and maybe Castano again, probably work themselves into that grouping also.

This is shaping up as a season long 4 lefty pen pretty quickly. Not necessarily a bad thing.

[fish16]

Garrett seems like a 1-2 times through the lineup guy for sure. Maybe he starts throwing a little harder so he gets squared up a little less and becomes more, but seems like a perfect "bulk" reliever. I don't think he's going to be on the team absent injuries though. Looks to me he is going to be considered the 14th or 15th arm this year and they will keep him fully stretched out. I'm not sure I like this idea as I think he'll really play up in the pen. But......

I think it's interesting Smeltzer is up. They just guaranteed his contract ($1m) very early in the season, so payroll just went up a million. They must see something as they lose that money if they ditch him. Maybe this is the next Thompson as these cheapskates don't guarantee money for nothing. I do trust them on the pitching so that is interesting.

So the healthy pen is:

Floro, Chargois, Barnes, Enright
Puk, Scott, Okert, Smeltzer

With Garrett (Cueto), Brazoban (Enright), and Nardi (Okert) the replacements. Nance, and maybe Castano again, probably work themselves into that grouping also.

This is shaping up as a season long 4 lefty pen pretty quickly. Not necessarily a bad thing.

That’s a thoroughly mediocre and completely avoidable bullpen. Every year they ignore the need for 1-2 more quality relievers. That bullpen is not good when healthy, let alone when we have injuries

[fish16]

DLC has been encouraging and Sanchez has shown a better eye. The hits will start to fall for him. IF Garcia is out, it might be the best scenario. It gives him some time off and he will get some rehab games before he comes back to hopefully get some confidence. I think as a result if Garcia needs some IL time, Gurriel will start to get some more playing time. They either need to play DLC and sanchez every day or gurriel will start getting more playing time at first with Soler/cooper having to play a corner of spot.

Vs lefties it would be gurriel at 1b, Soler in a corner OF spot, and Cooper at DH. Against righties, maybe Coop stays at 1b, Soler at DH, and Sanchez and DLC both starting. I like both of those options better than garcia. He has shown no signs of progress over last year. His ab's are terrible, his contact is weak. Just bad.

[fish16]

Through 10 games (incredibly small sample size), we are 26th in BA, 27th in OBP, 22nd in slugging, 27th in OPS, and 3rd in strikeouts. Quite frankly, there have been struggles, but overall the top 4-5 in the lineup has been tremendous. Arraez and coop have over 1.000 OPS, SOler is at .809, DLC at .801, and jazz is starting to turn it on and he's at .738. It has been the bottom of the order that has destroyed the offense overall. Segura has been terrible to start with a .423 OPS, the catcher position has been terrible (though fortes has had some bad luck), Garcia had a ,368 OPS, and both berti and Wendle got off to incredibly slow starts.

I'd like to see gurriel start getting more opportunities. I think last year was a down year for him but he's got more in the tank. Small sample, but he's hitting well and not striking out. At the bottom of the lineup more often he can really provide a veteran presence and steady contribution.

[fish16]

Edward cabrera on pace for the first season of 200+ walks and fewer than 100 k's. He will get it together. By next year he will figure it out, but it will be a little sandy 2019 like for him this year with the command. Outside of Luzardo and Sandy though, there will be ALOT of bullpen innings because these guys cant manage their pitch counts. I will give it more time though as the mets lineup is infuriatingly patient and has made these guys throw a ton of pitches. Schedule should lighten up. Good news is with the new schedule we only have 6 more games against them the rest of the year.

[rmc523]

This team doesn't have a starting caliber corner outfielder, or shortstop, and there doesn't appear to be anyone close at any of those 3 spots in the minors. Do we think there's any chance they make a move to fix any of this, or are they just going to accept another losing season with a bad lineup?

Considering they refused to sign one of the big guys and didn't pull off any other big trades, probably.

[lou]

Edward cabrera on pace for the first season of 200+ walks and fewer than 100 k's. He will get it together. By next year he will figure it out, but it will be a little sandy 2019 like for him this year with the command. Outside of Luzardo and Sandy though, there will be ALOT of bullpen innings because these guys cant manage their pitch counts. I will give it more time though as the mets lineup is infuriatingly patient and has made these guys throw a ton of pitches. Schedule should lighten up. Good news is with the new schedule we only have 6 more games against them the rest of the year.

With the purchase of Smeltzer and that commitment to payroll, I am hopeful they go to the proverbial 7 man rotation which I mused about this offseason. This does create "bullpen innings" but it also could be a deceptive bullpen of using Garrett/Cabrera and Smeltzer as dedicated bulk relievers. So is that really the bullpen. Something like this:

Sandy
Cueto --- > Smeltzer (1 timeish through lineup, 2-3+ IP)
Luzardo
Cabrera or Garrett depending on matchup, 4+ IP each (Smeltzer available for 1 IP)
Rogers (Smeltzer available for 1 IP)

Floro, Chargois, Barnes (Brazoban*)
Puk, Scott, Okert (Nardi)

(*Deal with Enright service obligations if/when he is healthy)


It's basically just throwing your longman (Smeltzer) on Cueto days and maybe a garbage inning during the 4/5 SP days, and Cabrera/Garrett are a combined SP that get you consistently into the 8th or 9th inning. At minimum, they should REALLY do this for Cabrera/Garrett. I'm just breaking up the lefties and innings potential days stacking Cueto 2nd here as we obviously know who the # 2 SP is.

I think that works. And then it creates a pitching "culture" to transfer off to this some time in 2024 when everyone is healthy......

Sandy
Luzardo
Cabrera + Eder
Rogers + Meyer
Eury + Garrett

Bender, Enright, Chargois/Sixto/Soriano
Puk, two of Scott/Okert/Smeltzer/Nardi/Simpson/Reynolds

Call Cabrera/Rogers 5+ IP SP (140-160 IP), Eury/Garrett 4+ IP Ps (120+ IP), and Meyer/Eder 3+ IP guys (100+ IP). If you kick out Scott and Chargois above, everyone is controlled 2024-2026 to note. And Fulton and various other RP types aren't listed.

Who needs a bullpen when you are throwing those kind of innings and effectively limiting third time through the lineup concerns up and down. Especially if you drop a RHP opener on Luzardo on top of this which will even more, REALLY mess with teams R/L hitting splits.


Edit - Just want to note that distribution is basically 55+ inning average for your 6 RP and your top 8 "SP" pitchers are throwing 1,100+ innings. Considering 150+ innings a year are pure garbage time, the team would really be able to get by with call it "3" really good high leverage relievers (a closer, a righty, a lefty), and maybe Puk and a healthy Bender/Sixto are two of those very quickly, etc. Basically the Marlins need to play moneyball here and buck the RP trend of everyone going max effort 1 innings like the Rays and go all SP and throw waves and waves of pure nasty and they have the personnel to do it.

[lou]

Considering they refused to sign one of the big guys and didn't pull off any other big trades, probably.

My post above is basically directed to this - they don't care and they want that pitching staff (however it may fall with the SP/Bulk/RP designations). They are betting on that arm distribution all being up a the same time IMO and this is a developmental year.

Yes let's ignore they should have signed a guy a year early to get to that moment in 2024 considering how bad FA is for them next year with only maybe Rosario and Bader as real upgrade options, but they are going to clearly cheap out until that P masterplan is all healthy.

And yes again, let's ignore everything must go right health wise and let's ignore that literally 12 of those 20 guys (including 7/8 of those "SP") I listed above in that hypothetical 2024 team have been hurt for a more than a minimum stint in the last 365 days. So everything must go right to do what they want to do.

[fish16]

My post above is basically directed to this - they don't care and they want that pitching staff (however it may fall with the SP/Bulk/RP designations). They are betting on that arm distribution all being up a the same time IMO and this is a developmental year.

Yes let's ignore they should have signed a guy a year early to get to that moment in 2024 considering how bad FA is for them next year with only maybe Rosario and Bader as real upgrade options, but they are going to clearly cheap out until that P masterplan is all healthy.

And yes again, let's ignore everything must go right health wise and let's ignore that literally 12 of those 20 guys (including 7/8 of those "SP") I listed above in that hypothetical 2024 team have been hurt for a more than a minimum stint in the last 365 days. So everything must go right to do what they want to do.

unfortunately for the fans, they might not be wrong about waiting till next year, it's just infuriating to have to wait until every single arm is developed and up with the big league team to wait to make the big splashy bat addition (or 2) that they need. Next year, we should have everyone up and ready- Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Meyer, Eder, Fulton, Eury. But why wait until then? This team has a pitching staff that can carry us this year, they just refused to make the move early.

[lou]

unfortunately for the fans, they might not be wrong about waiting till next year, it's just infuriating to have to wait until every single arm is developed and up with the big league team to wait to make the big splashy bat addition (or 2) that they need. Next year, we should have everyone up and ready- Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Rogers, Meyer, Eder, Fulton, Eury. But why wait until then? This team has a pitching staff that can carry us this year, they just refused to make the move early.

They are wrong to not get the SS - which is not available next year unless we believe Rosario has a meteoric rise in to super star land. Everything was lined up for them to get 1 of them, front load that deal for 2023, and then defer years 2-5 a little to years 6-8+ to create that 24-27ish contending window where the superstar SS is as cheap as possible to fit in luxury depth players around them. It was so easy if they'd just spend $120m.

That being said, they can fix this in FA next year signing a huge SP (as those will be available), trading a younger guy they have in another Pablo style move, and then signing a Rosario/Bader as the 2nd large bat upgrade. As well as retaining at least Soler, Cooper, or a replacement in FA. A large upgrade - I'm talking a Yelich type move, floor Reynolds sort of thing -, Rosario/Bader, and keeping a peak Soler/Cooper kind of guy really levels of things agains Arraez, Jazz, Segura, DLC/Sanchez/Garcia, and Fortes, etc. But again, Bruce will have to spend some money here and will he ever.

[lou]

Also some deflating news:

Brian Anderson looks really great - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brian-an...ter-than-ever/

Pablo is throwing much harder - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starti...gh-apr-8-2023/


Yea Arraez has been awesome so maybe that is a win-win, but if Anderson is going to hit again instantly, talk about a punch in the gut. I was OK with the DFA as I get it, but once he lingered and could have been had for $3m bucks they should have brought him back. His comments about them doesn't make it seem like he would have wanted to come back, but hopefully this isn't a big deal and effectively DLC/Sanchez/Yuli/AAA guys hit enough to not get killed here.

[Namaste]

Segura has been terrible to start with a .423 OPS.

More unlucky than terrible. Segura’s BABIP is 87 points lower than Coopers. And as you mentioned, Fortes has done even worse on the luck department: Fortes has a sub .200 BABIP.

[Namaste]

Brian Anderson was never going to be good in Miami. The reason may be a mystery (we suck at developing hitting? Bad Miami luck with injuries? Who the fuck knows?).

But if it didn’t happen in the long time he was in Miami it was never going to happen. Looking forward to booing the shit out of his ass from Section 40 if he remains one of the best hitters in baseball. But he’ll probably cool off or get hurt.