2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[lou]

"Depending on how you sort"=I had to selectively fudge things to fit my narrative. And that post was about exit velocity, not hard hit rate, where he was middle of the pack.

Which again, is to be expected as...and one more time...his only pitch is a sinker. His flat 4 seamer and poor excuse for breaking pitches would be teed off on.

And the peripherals he overperformed were not just his K or BB numbers which are shit. He also outperformed his FIP and xFIP and not by a little bit. By a lot.

And your entire argument rests on his hard hit rate. I don't really find that all compelling.

You might be right. I might be right. We might both be wrong. Sure give him a chance. I don't really care.

What? Here is literally everything if you want to start a fudging the numbers arguments:

Batted Ball Events/200 (for those at home, lower is better how I am conveying information):

Exit Velocity - 16th percentile
-Sorted by FB/LD - 33rd percentile
-Sorted by GB - 15th percentile

Avg Distance - 28th percentile

Hard hit (95+ mph) - 28th percentile (Mike Clevinger is 1 in front of him. Baseball savant sorts by 95+ so I didn't make that mph number up)
-Avg HR Distance - 68th percentile
Barrels/BBE% - 30th percentile
Barrells/PA% - 37th percentile

Also for shits and giggles.

Batted Balls/250 - 29th percentile hard hit
/300 - 29th percentile still
/400 - 33rd percentile
/500 - 38th percentile (only 43 pitchers qualified for this level and he is ahead of... Lester, Stroman, Bauer, Mikolas, Samardzija, Soroka, Tanaka, Quintana, Corbin, D. Hudson, Nola, Bumgarner, Marquez, and Bieber, but none of those guys are 4th SP so I don't know what point I am making)

This is borderline elite exit velocity, above average distance rates, above average hard hit rates, above average barrel rates, and below average.... HR distance? This is in no way, shape, or form, an average contact profile.

So when someone jacks Sandy, they hit it really fucking hard? TO THE BULLPEN!

He's 23 years olds and this was his first season for the love of christ. Can we just let him start in the rotation given he is flashing a fantastic contact profile and the only thing missing is him literally striking out 1+ more guys per start and walking 1 less guy every other start?

[tjfla]

Fangraphs moved Martin (IF) to # 1, with Hancock 2 (SP), and Tork (1B) 3. Positions for those scrolling down as I know you know them. A long ways to go, but this is straight up BPA college player if you ask me and it'll be hard for any other player to jump those guys absent a disaster. A lot of other college SP after them, so this will work itself out. I don't care who of them they draft.

Also, I think the ideal scenario, Patrick Bailey (C) sets the world on fire at NC State and moves into top 3 discussion. I'd love to bump out Tork from the spread as you can find 1B and Lewin/Cooper may be good enough. An elite catcher prospect would be nice to add to the depth chart and theoretically lock the position up for a decade with Alfaro-Banfield-Bailey combinations.

Side note - does Minn have a their PTBNL yet? Did I miss that?

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Yea, I mean they must be drooling at this redundancy from a pure upside perspective:

Sixto/Guzman
Sandy/Cabrera
Pablo/Neidert
Garrett/Rogers/Caleb
Literally whoever is 5th best above/Yamamoto/Holloway/College SP 2020 draft/Free agency

Pablo has looked much better than a 4 when healthy too, so I think you're selling him a little short.

It's crazy to think maybe those first 4 all fail as SP, and then become the nastiest RHP bullpen in baseball. I've seen RP comps for all 4 of them so who knows. In that scenario, they are still probably fine if they get 4 solid SP out of the rest of them and sign 1 good free agent.

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In Todd's defense, it is .385 for his career. I'm not sure when that normalizes, but that's for 1,000 PA basically. Maybe it takes 2,000 PA to get to a real baseline. Either way, he's a high BABIP guy it seems and it's not all luck. He hits the ball hard and isn't a slug on the bases like Wilson Ramos.

He definitely needs to walk 2-3% of the time more, whiff 4-5% of the time less, and play defense closer to 2018 than 2019. That's getting to a consistent 3 WAR fast.

It's impossible to overlook he is 14th in catcher WAR the last 3 seasons though, and one of those wasn't a full year for him. I can't see any scenario where he isn't a solid "20th" catcher on average for the next few years and that's fine for right now compared to what he is costing. That's ignoring the upside.

Draft right now is Top 3-Hancock/Martin/Tork. #1 and 2 are AL teams which Tork belongs in so wouldn't surprise if one of them take him so we are likely getting Hancock and Martin. At this point 7 of Top 10 are College guys BUT 5 of them are Pitchers. Greenelee is in love with JT Ginn-throws 97 and has a better spin rate than Yamamoto

I think they go Pitcher(could be Hancock or another guy for below slot) unless Martin is there at #3. Like u said Diaz/1B is easy to find. This draft is deep at C with 12 of Top 150 so Bailey while nice isn't the only thing around.

Be interesting to see what we do over next few months-if they can get another draft pick I could see them passing on all 3 Top guys and taking Ginn/Wilcox or even Bailey at #3 saving millions and trying to float a Top HS guy down to #35. Save 1.5 million or so on #3 and u could offer someone at 35 or so almost 4 million. I know broken record but the lower minors are filling up fast for us so they have to start being choosy otherwise u are gonna have 8 guys who are 20/21 playing same spot and not developing. U can't have 8 OF"prospects" in Clinton because that means 4 of them get no AB's.

We sent Minn $$ instead of a player. I know Jeff would have sent them Sixto instead of $$$$

[tjfla]

Also read this!! Far from done but they wanna make the minors uniform

Each team would have 1 AAA/AA/Hi A/Low A and Rookie Ball team(5 total) and NOTHING else. Well maybe DSL. Draft moved back(guys have NO games till following year like IFA) and shorten to 25 rounds with Undrafted FA who could be signed whenever

This would make spots even more tight

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...-league-teams/

[lou]

Also read this!! Far from done but they wanna make the minors uniform

Each team would have 1 AAA/AA/Hi A/Low A and Rookie Ball team(5 total) and NOTHING else. Well maybe DSL. Draft moved back(guys have NO games till following year like IFA) and shorten to 25 rounds with Undrafted FA who could be signed whenever

This would make spots even more tight

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...-league-teams/

All smart ideas

[Todd]

Nothing Marlins related, and a bit old, I just find it interesting.

[lou]

They DFA'd Fernandez finally.

Updated 40 man 2020 projection:

Alfaro, Wallach (2)
Cooper, L. Diaz (2)
I. Diaz, Berti (2)
Rojas, Jazz (2)
Anderson (1)
Sierra, Brinson, Monte (3)
Ramirez, Dean, J. Sanchez (3)
=15

Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, E. Hernandez, Yamamoto, Sixto, Neidert, Dugger (9)
Steckenrider, Stanek, Brice, Brigham, Guzman (5)
Garcia, Conley, Quijada, W. Stewart, Castano (5)
=18

Holloway, Mejia, W. Stewart (3 - likely non 2020 players)
=3

Total=36

Maybe Mejia is so young they try and sneak him through. I think everyone else is claimed.

40 man maybes - Tayron, Milbrath, Keller, D. Lee, Eveld, Kinley, C. Smith, Moran (i.e., all relievers), and I guess Riddle and Puello

AAA-non roster- Heineman


This is looking to me 2 veterans (i.e. Castellanos and Castro), 1 of the fringe relievers (take your pick, I think I'd go Milbrath), and Rule V stab at someone if they like someone better than their current fringe relievers.

[tjfla]

They DFA'd Fernandez finally.

Updated 40 man 2020 projection:

Alfaro, Wallach (2)
Cooper, L. Diaz (2)
I. Diaz, Berti (2)
Rojas, Jazz (2)
Anderson (1)
Sierra, Brinson, Monte (3)
Ramirez, Dean, J. Sanchez (3)
=15

Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, E. Hernandez, Yamamoto, Sixto, Neidert, Dugger (9)
Steckenrider, Stanek, Brice, Brigham, Guzman (5)
Garcia, Conley, Quijada, W. Stewart, Castano (5)
=18

Holloway, Mejia, W. Stewart (3 - likely non 2020 players)
=3

Total=36

Maybe Mejia is so young they try and sneak him through. I think everyone else is claimed.

40 man maybes - Tayron, Milbrath, Keller, D. Lee, Eveld, Kinley, C. Smith, Moran (i.e., all relievers), and I guess Riddle and Puello

AAA-non roster- Heineman


This is looking to me 2 veterans (i.e. Castellanos and Castro), 1 of the fringe relievers (take your pick, I think I'd go Milbrath), and Rule V stab at someone if they like someone better than their current fringe relievers.

Mejia is the type of guy who gets claimed as in baseball circles scouts love him. He was named Milb Midwest League POY so he is well known

U can DFA Wallach and trade Urena/Brice/Conley if needed. Wouldnt be surprised if Wallach DFA and they take a C in Rule 5 to get a look at a 21 yr old then sign 2 or 3 to minors deals(Holday/Wallach and ?)

The RP thing is interesting as they can trade Tayron/Keller/Kinley for NON 40 man guys like LY very easy. Eveld and Chad Smith are both older hard throwing(100mph) Closer types with NO control. I think they keep Milbrath and Dylan Lee eventually(trade Conley for something and add Lee). Very possible we see 5 or 6 minor trades with RP. Kinda like LY when we got Stevens and Anderson

NOT saying they will but they could also DFA Holloway if they need a spot. Yes he has age,height,weight,pitches but looked BAD LY and could try to sneak him thru

Should note ALOT of people have mentioned that Edward Cabrera is Rule 5 Eligible this year!!!(I think its next year myself but Something to watch) He WILL be added if needed

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All smart ideas

Draft moved back and shorten to 25 Rds is a great idea. Should give teams a 25 Rd Bonus pool like they do now for Top 10 Rounds. Go 10% OVER pool amount and if unsigned then u can sign them

Not a fan of MLB telling teams that they can only have certain amount of teams/prospects however. If u wanna spend the cash u should be able to do what u want. If Marlins want Marlins Orange and Marlins Blue in GCL and have enough prospects they should be able too.

[lou]

Mejia is the type of guy who gets claimed as in baseball circles scouts love him. He was named Milb Midwest League POY so he is well known

U can DFA Wallach and trade Urena/Brice/Conley if needed. Wouldnt be surprised if Wallach DFA and they take a C in Rule 5 to get a look at a 21 yr old then sign 2 or 3 to minors deals(Holday/Wallach and ?)

The RP thing is interesting as they can trade Tayron/Keller/Kinley for NON 40 man guys like LY very easy. Eveld and Chad Smith are both older hard throwing(100mph) Closer types with NO control. I think they keep Milbrath and Dylan Lee eventually(trade Conley for something and add Lee). Very possible we see 5 or 6 minor trades with RP. Kinda like LY when we got Stevens and Anderson

NOT saying they will but they could also DFA Holloway if they need a spot. Yes he has age,height,weight,pitches but looked BAD LY and could try to sneak him thru

Should note ALOT of people have mentioned that Edward Cabrera is Rule 5 Eligible this year!!!(I think its next year myself but Something to watch) He WILL be added if needed

Fangraphs moved him to 2019. I think the discrepancy may be he was signed in 2015 and didn't pitch until 2016 causing the confusion?

So yea, he's in if eligible obviously and the 40 man is even more brutal. Also moves up his timetable which Lee and Nick will be happy about as there isn't a 40 man concern. Let him rip after the Super 2 deadline.

Updated 40 man 2020 projection:

Alfaro, Wallach (2)
Cooper, L. Diaz (2)
I. Diaz, Berti (2)
Rojas, Jazz (2)
Anderson (1)
Sierra, Brinson, Monte (3)
Ramirez, Dean, J. Sanchez (3)
=15

Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, Yamamoto, Sixto, E. Cabrera, Neidert, Dugger (9)
Steckenrider, Stanek, Brice, Brigham, E. Hernandez, Guzman (6)
Garcia, Conley, Quijada, Castano (4)
=19

Holloway, Mejia, W. Stewart (3 - likely non 2020 players)
=3

Total=37

They can sign 2 veteran bats and take someone in the Rule V, and then give MiLB deals I guess.

I can understand outright DFA'ing Wallach, Brinson, Ramirez, or Dean, or trading Urena and Conley, and keeping one or two Milbrath/Lee/Keller/Tayron. At a minimum, I'd definitely drop at least Wallach, maybe one of the OF, and keep an extra arm and just let MiLB catchers battle for opening day off the 40 man. Figure out the roster in late March when it may be easier to sneak someone through.

[tjfla]

Fangraphs moved him to 2019. I think the discrepancy may be he was signed in 2015 and didn't pitch until 2016 causing the confusion?

So yea, he's in if eligible obviously and the 40 man is even more brutal. Also moves up his timetable which Lee and Nick will be happy about as there isn't a 40 man concern. Let him rip after the Super 2 deadline.

Updated 40 man 2020 projection:

Alfaro, Wallach (2)
Cooper, L. Diaz (2)
I. Diaz, Berti (2)
Rojas, Jazz (2)
Anderson (1)
Sierra, Brinson, Monte (3)
Ramirez, Dean, J. Sanchez (3)
=15

Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, Yamamoto, Sixto, E. Cabrera, Neidert, Dugger (9)
Steckenrider, Stanek, Brice, Brigham, E. Hernandez, Guzman (6)
Garcia, Conley, Quijada, Castano (4)
=19

Holloway, Mejia, W. Stewart (3 - likely non 2020 players)
=3

Total=37

They can sign 2 veteran bats and take someone in the Rule V, and then give MiLB deals I guess.

I can understand outright DFA'ing Wallach, Brinson, Ramirez, or Dean, or trading Urena and Conley, and keeping one or two Milbrath/Lee/Keller/Tayron. At a minimum, I'd definitely drop at least Wallach, maybe one of the OF, and keep an extra arm and just let MiLB catchers battle for opening day off the 40 man. Figure out the roster in late March when it may be easier to sneak someone through.

They can open spots if needed this year. Again I could see them trading 2 or 3 RP(Keller/Tayron/Kinley) for non 40 man guys(like LY) and Urena/Brice/Conley?

DFA Wallach and take a Rule 5 C. Let Rule 5 guy/Wallach/Holaday/2 other vets fight for job

Milbrath=Brice
Lee=Conley
Guzman=Urena

All the arms are the SAME exact guy

[lou]

They can open spots if needed this year. Again I could see them trading 2 or 3 RP(Keller/Tayron/Kinley) for non 40 man guys(like LY) and Urena/Brice/Conley?

DFA Wallach and take a Rule 5 C. Let Rule 5 guy/Wallach/Holaday/2 other vets fight for job

Milbrath=Brice
Lee=Conley
Guzman=Urena

All the arms are the SAME exact guy

Maybe let's let them prove themselves at the MLB level first. But if Milbrath is Brice, you gotta protect him.

With the 40 man construction, who is in the rotation without urena? Yamamoto AND Hernandez/Dugger (and 15 games into the season you can promote Sixto/Cabrera/Neidert for service time concerns?)

I don't think they can get rid of Urena just yet. They need those innings.

This totally works on paper and post super 2 Sixto, Neidert, Guzman, Cabrera, and others shake this up big time.

Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, Yamamoto
Steckenrider, Stanek, Brice, Brigham, E. Hernandez
Garcia, Conley, Quijada

Sign 2 legit bats and roll with a fully internal staff

[lou]

Impending big news also - I had thought Kris Bryant's service time grievance was settled, but it apparently is not 4 years later. - https://twitter.com/thekapman/status...12643007188998

Basically for those scrolling through, Cubs called up Kris Bryant in an intentional tactic to delay his service clock, so he has 4 years, 171 days of service today. 172 days is a full year. You become a free agent after 6 years, so if things stand as they are, Kris Bryant will not be a free agent by 1 day after the 2020 season (5.171 days is not 5.172 days). Bryant is fighting to be awarded the full service year which pushes up free agency a full year.

This impacts the Marlins as, if Bryant wins, they shouldn't be calling up -any- rookie or 1-2 year player anywhere close to the 171 day mark in an intentional tactic of delaying service time to get another year. This will keep guys down in the minors longer by a few weeks I would assume. Basically, don't expect Monte, Sixto, Neidert, and Guzman in mid-April. But that would have probably happened anyways for Super 2 reasons. Anyways.

[tjfla]

Maybe let's let them prove themselves at the MLB level first. But if Milbrath is Brice, you gotta protect him.

With the 40 man construction, who is in the rotation without urena? Yamamoto AND Hernandez/Dugger (and 15 games into the season you can promote Sixto/Cabrera/Neidert for service time concerns?)

I don't think they can get rid of Urena just yet. They need those innings.

This totally works on paper and post super 2 Sixto, Neidert, Guzman, Cabrera, and others shake this up big time.

Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, Yamamoto
Steckenrider, Stanek, Brice, Brigham, E. Hernandez
Garcia, Conley, Quijada

Sign 2 legit bats and roll with a fully internal staff

Caleb
Sandy
Pablo
Yamamoto
Elieser/Dugger/Sixto/Cabrera/Neidert/Guzman BUT most likely sign a cheaper vet 1 yr with option

Not a big fan of promoting guys but if they are already on the 40 man so as soon as the cutoff date comes they might as well. Soon as cutoff comes u got arms,Diaz,Monte,Jazz all coming up so team will be totally different 2nd half of season

They likely will do something like Minnesota did this year with guys. Pineda 2/10,Schoop 1/7,Marwin 2/21,Perez 1/4,Cruz Sign guys with talent who are still on market come Jan. They are gonna try for bigger names like Rendon,Cole,Castellanos or in trades(JD,Betts,Quintana) but are NOT expected to get any of them at this point

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If anyone needs to hate Mike Stanton more

NYY are looking to trade him and guess who the FAVS are right now? St Louis to replace Ozuna

He still has NTC so he can block it like he did with us and his people told NYY he prefers LAD/LAA/SD

IF he would have went to St Louis before we probably would have had Bo Bichette from Toronto(Ozuna/Yelich to Toronto/Milwaukee) but not Jazz from Arizona since Gallen wouldn't have come with Sandy

[Nick]

If anyone needs to hate Mike Stanton more

You are literally the only person in the world that hates him for using the NTC he negotiated into his contract.

[lou]

Caleb
Sandy
Pablo
Yamamoto
Elieser/Dugger/Sixto/Cabrera/Neidert/Guzman BUT most likely sign a cheaper vet 1 yr with option

Not a big fan of promoting guys but if they are already on the 40 man so as soon as the cutoff date comes they might as well. Soon as cutoff comes u got arms,Diaz,Monte,Jazz all coming up so team will be totally different 2nd half of season

They likely will do something like Minnesota did this year with guys. Pineda 2/10,Schoop 1/7,Marwin 2/21,Perez 1/4,Cruz Sign guys with talent who are still on market come Jan. They are gonna try for bigger names like Rendon,Cole,Castellanos or in trades(JD,Betts,Quintana) but are NOT expected to get any of them at this point

Don't love that rotation without a veteran. Urena as a 3/4 SP in that squad is a big deal. It's also a 1 year only thing as presumably, Sixto/Cabrera and Neidert are in the rotation at a minimum along with Sandy, Pablo, and Caleb, and Yamamoto is a fantastic 6th SP to put in AAA for a year. Urena just needs to get through 15-20 starts and then be traded or turned into a forever RP. They could also just trade Urena for nothing special now, and sign some SP to a 1/$8 million deal, but I suspect Urena may have more value at the deadline as he is still young with another year of control. Plus cheaper. He isn't a bad arm. He was just hurt last year. He can eat innings with a little upside potential.

The Minnesota strategy also doesn't make sense to me when they have 20-22 guys for the 25 man roster making around $42, they have to play those guys to see what they have, and their isn't 40 man space for 4-5 veteran signings.

They have the payroll to add second-tier longterm piece (Castellanos), which also helps with their own marketing to show people they care and are doing something, and then it's 1-2 solid veteran bats (Castro and Walker do make sense) to round out the club. Maybe a veteran catcher and RP. The later three of those pretty much have to be on MilB deals to protect all the arms on the 40 man through spring training.

Ignoring Rendon/Cole, I think Castellanos, Castro, N. Walker (MiLB), veteran C (MiLB), and a veteran RP (MiLB) is all they need to do. Keep Urena and Conley. DFA 1 or 2 of Wallach/Dean/Brinson/Ramirez and keep an extra arm or two like Milbrath/Lee/Rule V who VERY SADLY probably have the ability to be better RP than those guys have at being productive bench players longterm.

That's a neat little squad and gets super interesting with some/all of Lewin, Jazz, Monte, Sanchez, Sixto, Cabrera, Neidert, Guzman, Castano, and maybe 1-2 of Milbrath/Lee all on the 40 man and ready to be called up in the summer.

I'd also play Sanchez heavily in CF in 2020. Switch him and Monte between CF/RF every other day. That's the biggest positional boon I am seeing if Sanchez can do it, and that positively means they can spend on a corner player (Rendon, Castellanos, Ozuna, etc.) as there won't be pure positional redundancy. I still think the DH is coming to the NL though so it won't be an issue in 3 years. Anyways.

[Maddawg]

Since he'll be managing in our division, I thought this should go here....

Girardi named Phillies manager

https://www.fox29.com/sports/reports...rdi-as-manager