2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[Todd]

Sierra's bat is not "OK". His bat is awful.

[Nick]

compared to VVM, Sierra is Cody Bellinger.

[Todd]

Sierra's only extended look in the majors saw him with an OPS 100 points lower than Brinson(with a BABIP only slightly below .300). His other two stints he had a BABIP well over .400.

The only thing that will keep him in the majors is his defense.

[Nick]

Sierra's only extended look in the majors saw him with an OPS 100 points lower than Brinson(with a BABIP only slightly below .300). His other two stints he had a BABIP well over .400.

The only thing that will keep him in the majors is his defense.

I mostly agree, but as still only a 23-year old. He has shown improvement year-to-year. Unfortunately he's out of options now, and I don't think he's improved to the level where he's a major league bat yet. Maybe he'll surprise next year, though.

[Todd]

They should bring in 2 free agent starters, shift Hernandez, Dugger, and Yamomoto to the bullpen, and do a version of a 6 man rotation. They share the 6th spot, each one taking it every 3rd time through.

Homer Bailey and Tanner Roark would be my suggestions, on one year deals.

Reliever like Drew Pomeranz brought in.

Hopefully they perform and you can move them at the deadline along with prospects being ready to move up.

Open season with:
SP-Alcantra
SP-Smith
SP-Lopez
SP-Bailey
SP-Roark

RP-Yamanoto
RP-Brice
RP-Garcia
RP-Pomeranz
RP-Dugger
RP-Quijada
RP-Hernandez
RP-Brigham

Then if everything works out, you can move Pomeranz, Bailey, Roark, and Smith at the deadline and have a post-deadline pitching staff of:

SP-Sanchez
SP-Lopez
SP-Garrett
SP-Cabrera
SP-Neidert

RP-Brice
RP-Brigham
RP-Garcia
RP-Dugger
RP-Yamanoto
RP-Quijada
RP-Hernandez
CL-Alcantra

[tjfla]

They should bring in 2 free agent starters, shift Hernandez, Dugger, and Yamomoto to the bullpen, and do a version of a 6 man rotation. They share the 6th spot, each one taking it every 3rd time through.

Homer Bailey and Tanner Roark would be my suggestions, on one year deals.

Reliever like Drew Pomeranz brought in.

Hopefully they perform and you can move them at the deadline along with prospects being ready to move up.

Open season with:
SP-Alcantra
SP-Smith
SP-Lopez
SP-Bailey
SP-Roark

RP-Yamanoto
RP-Brice
RP-Garcia
RP-Pomeranz
RP-Dugger
RP-Quijada
RP-Hernandez
RP-Brigham

Then if everything works out, you can move Pomeranz, Bailey, Roark, and Smith at the deadline and have a post-deadline pitching staff of:

SP-Sanchez
SP-Lopez
SP-Garrett
SP-Cabrera
SP-Neidert

RP-Brice
RP-Brigham
RP-Garcia
RP-Dugger
RP-Yamanoto
RP-Quijada
RP-Hernandez
CL-Alcantra

They would likely send Elieser Yamamoto and Dugger to AAA then to get innings.

Pen right now is

Garcia
Quijada
Conley
Brice
Tayron
Urena
Steck
Stanek

Prolly sign a Romo and 3 or 4 AAA RP to go along with 10 guys in AAA/AA

Dugger and Elieser are LR guys long term while Yamamoto is who knows still. Looked decent as SP

- - - - - - - - - -

Sierra's bat is not "OK". His bat is awful.

Awful is Brinson. Someone needs to get Luis out of prison and teach these guys how to use speed. Sierra/VV/Miller are all contact guys with no power

[rmc523]

Awful is Brinson. Someone needs to get Luis out of prison and teach these guys how to use speed. Sierra/VV/Miller are all contact guys with no power

Who's Luis?

[Todd]

Who's Luis?

Maybe his "insider info" clued him in to Brinson's real name.

SoFlaMarlins exclusive!

[emkayseven]

I assume he's talking about Luis Castillo

[tjfla]

I assume he's talking about Luis Castillo

Yes. Brinson is a lost cause(should trade him for another bust guy and see)who will stick around till 30+ yrs old because teams love size and fact he is actually solid in OF

I would do

Colorado-Brinson/AAA RP
Miami-Desmond/#10-15 Ranked Prospect(Tyler Nevin)/1S Comp Pick

Desmond can play 1B/Corners and is 25 Million for 2 years plus buyout,Get Nevin who is 22 can play 1B/3B(replace Cooper or Dean in 2 years),1S Comp Pick which is 2 Million+ and try to float a Top 10 guy to #35 by promising 3 Million

- - - - - - - - - -

Lee's 2020 Starting C was outrighted to AAA along with Noesi

37 Spots open now with Josh Smith claimed/Heineman and Noesi outrighted

I actually like Heineman as Starting AAA C but he is NOT a Mattingly backup and long as Donnie is here he wont be up much.

[lou]

They should bring in 2 free agent starters, shift Hernandez, Dugger, and Yamomoto to the bullpen, and do a version of a 6 man rotation. They share the 6th spot, each one taking it every 3rd time through.

Homer Bailey and Tanner Roark would be my suggestions, on one year deals.

Reliever like Drew Pomeranz brought in.

Then if everything works out, you can move Pomeranz, Bailey, Roark, and Smith at the deadline and have a post-deadline pitching staff of:

SP-Sanchez
SP-Lopez
SP-Garrett
SP-Cabrera
SP-Neidert

RP-Brice
RP-Brigham
RP-Garcia
RP-Dugger
RP-Yamanoto
RP-Quijada
RP-Hernandez
CL-Alcantra

Pomeranz was lights out of the bullpen so I think he may be too expensive. Someone is going to pay him for 2-3 years how I see it.

I agree they should bring in a Bailey, or a Roark, or Alex Wood-rehab type, and fill a SP roll through July. I think you stick Urena back in the rotation. This is a good depth chart to open:

Sandy, Pablo, Caleb, "Veteran," Urena w/ Hernandez, Yamamoto, and Dugger your call ups first three months of the year, and we can add likely Sixto and Neidert to that after the Super 2 deadline (and Guzman if he is a SP).
(I won't be annoyed if someone wants to move Urena and we let Yamamoto rip, but I just don't see a need to do that when they can stash them in AAA and Urena is a fully capable 4/5 SP when healthy and could turn into something at the deadline as he is controlled for 2021 and wouldn't be a rental.)

I also think there is no possibility they have 4 rookie SP in the rotation in July, but I hope you're right because that means they are awesome. Also, I don't think Yamamoto or Dugger play up in the bullpen, unless the Marlins convert over to a Rays philosophy and they become a bulk 2-3+ IP reliever 1-2 times a week. I don't think this happens with Mattingly and Astros/Nationals success this year. I think they are SP or nothing for this franchise.

I expect this midseason:

SP - Sandy (he is better than you give him credit for, even if not a future # 1), Pablo, Caleb, Sixto, Neidert/Yamamoto

RHP - Guzman, Brigham, E. Hernandez (he would play up in the bullpen IMO), one of Urena/Stanek/Steckenrider/Brice survives attrition as the "veteran," and a "god knows who" 5th RHP as they have a ton of fringe arms and someone works out. I'll say Milbrath right now.

LHP - Garcia, and two big question marks, but maybe Quijada is one. (Or, I can see a scenario where Caleb has injury issues and is deemed better to be a 2-3 IP reliever and T. Rogers is fully converted to the pen as a lot of his projections predict, and all of a sudden you have a totally awesome 3 LHP bullpen on paper and slot Yamamoto into the rotation for now and he keeps the seat warm for Cabrera/Garrett. I actually love this idea provided there is high confidence Garrett turns into at least a # 4 SP.)

- - - - - - - - - -

Lee's 2020 Starting C was outrighted to AAA along with Noesi

37 Spots open now with Josh Smith claimed/Heineman and Noesi outrighted

I actually like Heineman as Starting AAA C but he is NOT a Mattingly backup and long as Donnie is here he wont be up much.

They actually have 42 guys on the 40 man once you account for Fernandez, Steckenrider, Wallach, Anderson, and Riddle 60 man DL stays. But that's going to change fast as I think they can outright cut this entire list:

Chen
Fernandez
Guerrero
Keller
Kinley
Moran
Holaday
Wallach
Prado (retiring)
Riddle
Walker (FA)
Granderson (FA)
Puello

That gets you to 29, but there are some adds from the farm system (at least L. Diaz, Jazz, Sixto, Neidert, Mejia, W. Stewart, Castano), and then the maybe relievers (Keller, Kinley, Milbrath, and D. Lee seem like most probable of potentially getting a last spot or two).

They really don't have much room assuming they add 3-4 veteran guys.

[Todd]

- Sandy (he is better than you give him credit for, even if not a future # 1)

Even in the stretch over the last 2 months when he had a handful of good starts, he had more mediocre ones and his peripherals were quite poor(K/9, BB/9, FIP, xFIP) and he really still only has one decent pitch which is his sinker. Even his hard hit % people fawned over fell way off to being middle of the pack. It was arguably one of the least impressive sub-4 ERA seasons a pitcher has ever had. He would thrive at the back end of the bullpen where his power sinker and lack of other pitches aren't so exposed while he would never be anything more than mediocre as a starter.

I don't hate Alcantra, I just don't see him the same way some people do(and am still pretty pissed he was the centerpiece of the Ozuna deal, but that isn't his fault).

[lou]

Even in the stretch over the last 2 months when he had a handful of good starts, he had more mediocre ones and his peripherals were quite poor(K/9, BB/9, FIP, xFIP) and he really still only has one decent pitch which is his sinker. Even his hard hit % people fawned over fell way off to being middle of the pack. It was arguably one of the least impressive sub-4 ERA seasons a pitcher has ever had. He would thrive at the back end of the bullpen where his power sinker and lack of other pitches aren't so exposed while he would never be anything more than mediocre as a starter.

I don't hate Alcantra, I just don't see him the same way some people do(and am still pretty pissed he was the centerpiece of the Ozuna deal, but that isn't his fault).

They absolutely murdered the Cardinals in the Ozuna trade. Murdered them. Sandy had a 2.3 WAR last year and Ozuna 2.6. You should be thrilled.

Sandy was 87th out of 436 pitchers in AVG exit velocity, 100 batted events. That's top 20% in the league as a 23 year old rookie, and I intentionally sorted by 100 batted ball events so major relievers would get in these rankings.

Dial that back to 250 events to get the relievers out..... he is 24th out of 152 (16th percentile). Morton is in front of him, and Paddack and Soroka are a few behind him. This is not "middle of the pack."

I agree he would be an awesome reliever, but so would anyone with this profile. I hope he starts getting more guys to whiff too, and don't you give him that chance because the batted ball profile is REALLY GOOD and BORDERLINE ELITE. As a 23 yer old throwing his first full season, with the most innings of his career.

You take a mediocre #3/4 SP throwing 197 innings over a non-Hader/Yates reliever any day. Only 2 relievers in baseball (Hendricks, Yates, tie with Hader) were more valuable than Sandy last year.

[Todd]

You are just putting too much emphasis on "could" or "migut". He has been a professional pitcher for almost a decade.

I dont really see any reason to think he will add many Ks when his only useful pitch is a sinker(and also the only reason his hard hit rate is "low".

He had a 2.3 WAR. Cool. He had to signficantly overperform what his peripherals said he should have been to do that.

If Chisholm turns into something, then I will say it is a good 5rade. A mediocre starter best suited for the bullpen and a AAA backup outfielder are not exciting in the least.

We just disagree on certain players. I cringed when you still had Alfaro as the starting catcher 2 or 3 years from now for example.

[lou]

You are just putting too much emphasis on "could" or "migut". He has been a professional pitcher for almost a decade.

I dont really see any reason to think he will add many Ks when his only useful pitch is a sinker(and also the only reason his hard hit rate is "low".

He had a 2.3 WAR. Cool. He had to signficantly overperform what his peripherals said he should have been to do that.

If Chisholm turns into something, then I will say it is a good 5rade. A mediocre starter best suited for the bullpen and a AAA backup outfielder are not exciting in the least.

We just disagree on certain players. I cringed when you still had Alfaro as the starting catcher 2 or 3 years from now for example.

We can disagree, but I'd like to see an actual reason and not the old eyeball test. I am putting emphasis on the cold hard fact Sandy has an incredibly interesting profile with his extremely low and borderline elite contact rates, where even a small uptick in Ks will pay enormous dividends (he throws hard, it could easily happen), and overall had a 2.3 WAR last year, which among pitchers who threw for more than 50 IP (so to capture the good relievers as you want to make him a reliever to try and help the numbers get lower for you), he was 19th percentile in performance. Let's chuck out the relievers, he was 46th percentile which is still really good. He is 23 and this was his rookie year. If you do induce weaker contact (which is confirmed), you're going to over-achieve on FIP/peripheral numbers because weaker contact means less hits.

This all makes sense when you look at the full package and it is very arguable whether he significantly over-performed peripherals. Maybe a little bit. This is a sustainable package if the contact/walk/k rates hold and Sandy is probably a low 4 era variance SP at his current skillset. If all Sandy does is produce an average 2.3 WAR for the next 5 years as the Marlins 3/4 SP that is beyond fantastic and sole crushing to the Cardinals ignoring Gallen/Jazz, Castano, and Sierra. (In fact, Ozuna produced 5.4 WAR for the Cardinals (and presumably a QFA draft pick), for $21.25 million dollars. This produced probably around $35+ million in surplus value assuming they draft a solid FV45 prospect (generous). Sandy already has 2.5 WAR as a Marlin, Gallen produced .8, and Sierra has produced an ugly -1 WAR (positive .5 last year though! Hope!). Accounting for low payroll to Sandy/Gallen/Sierra, they are halfway to Ozuna's actual surplus value production and Sandy is going to crush the Cardinals without Jazz.) Your perspective of this trade is just bizarre. I hope every trade the Marlins do is as lopsided as this in the Marlins favor.

Maybe he falls apart? I don't know. But it's beyond dumb just chucking him in the bullpen when he is flashing major upside as a 23 year old. If he gets pushed out because Sixto, Cabrera, Garrett, and Pablo are awesome, they sign a veteran, and Sandy looks like a max effort reliever in a few years when the league has seen him a few more times, so be it.

As for Alfaro, they just don't have anything in the minors remotely close and he's going to be cheap. For all his faults, he was a top 25 catcher last year and that's not a liability. I don't love him, but I don't hate him either. He's fine, and he's also worth the gamble he drops the whiff rate to 30% and then he's going to be a monster as he really hits the shit out of the ball when he makes contact. The Nationals would love to have him right now.