2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[lou]

Well Cots schedule contradicts itself literally on consecutive lines.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.co...miami-marlins/

Yes, that is my issue. The only way I can reconcile those two sentences are:

-2022 payment is 2021 option. Which this makes sense to me.
-Those lump sums and just lump sums and maybe they are giving him different base salary figures to make up the difference. i.e., he doesn't necessarily have to be on the minimum salary

There is a problem with Sportrac too which is why I don't think they are right either. Enacting a 4 year option is flat out wrong in their transactions glossary for $75.8 million.

Maybe I should just email Cots.

[Nick]

It doesn't make sense to me how they deferred the contract almost immediately. Like I'd get if you were 2 years into the contract and say we want to re-structure your contract and defer some money to later, but they signed and then deferred the contract the same year.

I'll take a stab at coming up with the $80 million assuming those payment dates from Cots, which match-up with what Spotrac has are right. I think maybe the missing $2.5 million is what was already paid on the contract before they deferred. So it'd look something like this"

$2.5M - what was already paid on contract in 2016
$3M - 11/30/16
Jeter and Sherman Buy the Marlins October 2017
$4.5M - 11/30/17
$5M - 11/30/17 (Signing Bonus)
$8M - 6/30/18 (Signing Bonus)
$2M -11/30/18
$6M - 6/30/19
$4M - 11/30/19
$9M - 6/30/20
$5M - 11/30/20
$15M - 6/30/21
$1M - 11/30/21
$15M - 6/30/22

That adds up to $80 million. (Feel free to check my math) By the way if I'm correct about these dates, then Loria signed Chen to a 5-year $80 million contract, had him for 2 of those 5 years and only paid him $5.5M of the $80M total. lol

- - - - - - - - - -

Also, what is the point of the signing bonus if it's deferred? Isn't the point of the signing bonus that you get that money immediately?

[tjfla]

It doesn't make sense to me how they deferred the contract almost immediately. Like I'd get if you were 2 years into the contract and say we want to re-structure your contract and defer some money to later, but they signed and then deferred the contract the same year.

I'll take a stab at coming up with the $80 million assuming those payment dates from Cots, which match-up with what Spotrac has are right. I think maybe the missing $2.5 million is what was already paid on the contract before they deferred. So it'd look something like this"

$2.5M - what was already paid on contract in 2016
$3M - 11/30/16
Jeter and Sherman Buy the Marlins October 2017
$4.5M - 11/30/17
$5M - 11/30/17 (Signing Bonus)
$8M - 6/30/18 (Signing Bonus)
$2M -11/30/18
$6M - 6/30/19
$4M - 11/30/19
$9M - 6/30/20
$5M - 11/30/20
$15M - 6/30/21
$1M - 11/30/21
$15M - 6/30/22

That adds up to $80 million. (Feel free to check my math) By the way if I'm correct about these dates, then Loria signed Chen to a 5-year $80 million contract, had him for 2 of those 5 years and only paid him $5.5M of the $80M total. lol

- - - - - - - - - -

Also, what is the point of the signing bonus if it's deferred? Isn't the point of the signing bonus that you get that money immediately?

No one probably knows this but Chen and his agent. Miami FO probably doesnt even(JK they know but likely look it over daily)

I asked someone like 2 years ago but if remember right

$1M - 11/30/21
$15M - 6/30/22

are only paid IF the vesting option is picked up which is 16 million

The Miami Marlins and free-agent left-hander Wei-Yin Chen have agreed to a five-year, $80 million deal that includes a sixth-year vesting option, sources told ESPN's Buster Olney.


The deal could be worth up to $96 million if the sixth-year option vests, and Chen can opt out of the contract after the second year, sources told Olney.


Like ESPN says the 16 million ONLY if option vests!!!!

This was why everyone knew Jeff was selling the team in 2017 he was offering EVERYONE(Kenley Jensen got same type of offer) deferred contracts with first 2 years paying nothing

- - - - - - - - - -

It shouldn't though and they are dumb if they think a draft pick that won't help for 5 years means anything.

Spending $15 million on Avisail is straight up wasted money that does not help 2022. They should sign Ozuna/Castellanos for 4 years and front load the deal. Use the payroll to help the future.

Spending $25 million in payroll on Avisail, Roark, Romo, and a Neil Walker or two gets you 4 wins in 2020 and jack and shit for 2022. That's a mind boggling waste of resources when you can use payroll as an asset.

This isn't hard at all.

Its less about the draft pick and more about the draft pool $ they get. IF u lose a 3rd Rd Pick u lose 1 million dollars. If u add a 1S pick u add 2.2 million. They wanna do what they have done the past 2 drafts and overspend which means the MORE draft pool $ the more talent they can get. This is the last year in their minds they can just add as much as possible/just draft whatever. 3rd Rd Pick probably doesnt do anything BUT if u lose 1 million in draft pool $ it means later rounds its gonna look like a Jeff Loria draft

Just saying this as an example IF Miami would have signed Castellanos as a FA LY and lost 3rd Rd Pick they probably don't have Burdick/Fitterer/Mokma in system. Likely would have passed on Misner too because they were in love with Nasim Nunez.

I agree I would go hard after Rendon and if fails go Castellanos/Roark/Romo and some RH vet but instead looks like they are going Avisail/Roark,Pineda,Teheran/Romo/Brock Holt and none will be here in 2022, Should note they plan to be aggressive in FA next year what it means? No clue what aggressive means but what heard

Note on Brock Holt-actually heard it from 2 people today that Marlins want him as Vet LHB UT guy(plays 1B/2B/SS/3B and Corners). Should know around Nov 17-20 cause Riddle likely to be DFA/traded

[tjfla]

There is a conflict in numbers between this and COTs. One of them is right and wrong. I've always looked at COTs.

Cot's has 2022 deferred money, but I figured that was for the 2021 option (which Chen can't get to the innings to approve so it's a non-issue).

If Sportrac is right, it means Loria kicked the money an extra year (or two) down the road and he's going to be an albatross for 4 more years

- - - - - - - - - -

I think Sportrac is adding the 2021 conditional player option which definitely did NOT happen.

Look at the right bar:

NOV 5 2017Exercised a 4 year $75.8 million player option with Miami (MIA)

He absolutely didn't option 4 years. He couldn't. This is the 4 year option. It hasn't happened yet. - Chen receives 2021 player option if he 1) has 180 innings pitched in 2020 or 360 IP in 2019-20 and 2) is not on the disabled list at the end of the 2020 season, and 3) is healthy for 2021 spring training

I think Sportrac just saw the option was enacted on 2018-2020 and adding in the other one because it was probably an intern

- - - - - - - - - -

I'm sticking with Cot's here and that loose schedule I put above.

Two more years of this dude. Roughly $16-17 million each of the next two years.

He actually did because he had the option to OPT out of the contract after 2017 season instead he exercised the player option for 4 years

Whatever it is he is likely to be Released OR more likely put on 60 Day with some "arm" issue and told to stay home. Bring him back over in July/Aug and pitches few games in Sept to keep him off the DL at end of the year.

[fauowls44]

No one probably knows this but Chen and his agent. Miami FO probably doesnt even(JK they know but likely look it over daily)

I asked someone like 2 years ago but if remember right

$1M - 11/30/21
$15M - 6/30/22

are only paid IF the vesting option is picked up which is 16 million

The Miami Marlins and free-agent left-hander Wei-Yin Chen have agreed to a five-year, $80 million deal that includes a sixth-year vesting option, sources told ESPN's Buster Olney.


The deal could be worth up to $96 million if the sixth-year option vests, and Chen can opt out of the contract after the second year, sources told Olney.

Chen's option will vest for the 2021 season based on how many innings he pitches in the 2019 and 2020 seasons, sources told Olney.

This was why everyone knew Jeff was selling the team in 2017 he was offering EVERYONE(Kenley Jensen got same type of offer) deferred contracts with first 2 years paying nothing

- - - - - - - - - -



Its less about the draft pick and more about the draft pool $ they get. IF u lose a 3rd Rd Pick u lose 1 million dollars. If u add a 1S pick u add 2.2 million. They wanna do what they have done the past 2 drafts and overspend which means the MORE draft pool $ the more talent they can get. This is the last year in their minds they can just add as much as possible/just draft whatever. 3rd Rd Pick probably doesnt do anything BUT if u lose 1 million in draft pool $ it means later rounds its gonna look like a Jeff Loria draft

Just saying this as an example IF Miami would have signed Castellanos as a FA LY and lost 3rd Rd Pick they probably don't have Burdick/Fitterer/Mokma in system. Likely would have passed on Misner too because they were in love with Nasim Nunez.

I agree I would go hard after Rendon and if fails go Castellanos/Roark/Romo and some RH vet but instead looks like they are going Avisail/Roark,Pineda,Teheran/Romo/Brock Holt and none will be here in 2022, Should note they plan to be aggressive in FA next year what it means? No clue but what heard

I'm fine not worrying about 2022 right now. They need to get through 2020 and 2021 first...and it's not acceptable to just throw away years anymore. If they are trying to get fans to the ballpark, you cannot ask them to suffer through another 60 win season. Again, I'm not asking them to be a wild card contender in 2020 because that is unrealistic. However, they have to TRY and improve the MLB roster. Go add some MLB talent. A willingness to spend money will show fans (and future free agents) that they are serious about building a winner.

[fish16]

Avisail Garcia would be a tremendous waste of money if longer than a one year deal. Go get Pineda on a 1-2 year deal, nab a quality backup c, and maybe a guy like didi but only if it’s for 2 years or less, and then just try to get 2-3 veteran bullpen arms that you might be able to flip. That’s if you can’t get Rendon or Cole which is highly unlikely. Don’t even think about castellanos, he has waste of money written all over him unless it’s a one year deal, which it wouldn’t be. Maybe get a guy like howie Kendrick as well to provide insurance at a few positions in case some of the younger guys like Diaz struggle and need a little more time in Nola

[tjfla]

I'm fine not worrying about 2022 right now. They need to get through 2020 and 2021 first...and it's not acceptable to just throw away years anymore. If they are trying to get fans to the ballpark, you cannot ask them to suffer through another 60 win season. Again, I'm not asking them to be a wild card contender in 2020 because that is unrealistic. However, they have to TRY and improve the MLB roster. Go add some MLB talent. A willingness to spend money will show fans (and future free agents) that they are serious about building a winner.

Again where are u gonna play all this MLB talent in July? They want to play the young guys

C-Alfaro
1B-Lewin/Cooper
2B-Isan
SS-Rojas/Berti(Jazz might be ready?)
3B-BA
LF-?
CF-Monte/Sierra
RF-Jesus/Harold

Besides LF they are pretty much full. I agree with what u are saying AND would try to sign Castellanos AND Didi for 3B/IF(move BA to RF)MYSELF but they seem to wanna let the young guys play as much as possible starting in July

They dont want Monte,Jesus,Lewin,even Jazz to sit in AAA all year and wonder next offseason what they got. This is the same thing wih the SP and why they want a 1yr+ option deal. Have a Roark be a SP till July then either trade him IF Sixto/Cabrera/Guzman/others are ready OR move him into LR role

- - - - - - - - - -

Avisail Garcia would be a tremendous waste of money if longer than a one year deal. Go get Pineda on a 1-2 year deal, nab a quality backup c, and maybe a guy like didi but only if it’s for 2 years or less, and then just try to get 2-3 veteran bullpen arms that you might be able to flip. That’s if you can’t get Rendon or Cole which is highly unlikely. Don’t even think about castellanos, he has waste of money written all over him unless it’s a one year deal, which it wouldn’t be. Maybe get a guy like howie Kendrick as well to provide insurance at a few positions in case some of the younger guys like Diaz struggle and need a little more time in Nola

Rendon,Castellanos,Abreu,Didi,Ozuna Top 5 and Avisail is in next tier. Marlins see 20-30 HR guy when healthy who they can take a 2/3 yr look at for 15 million instead of 50 million

BP targets are gonna be Romo,Cishek or Betances(1 of them) and like 5 Milb FA with invites. We actually have alot of BP depth already and will be trading/DFA a few over next 2 weeks

They are looking at Roark,Pineda,Teheran and 2 or 3 others. Offering 1 yr +option to all of them but only want 1. Likely will trade whoever they get by deadline/next offseason. More of less just cover for the young arms in case injured or not ready

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THIS IS WHAT I AM HEARING!! Not my opinion. My opinion is sign Romo,Didi and/or Castellanos,SP and 2 vet bats like LY(just better than Grandy Man and Walker). Shit I would try for Rendon first!!! I am with lou Front load these contracts/spend some cash now

[fish16]

Every player in baseball hits 20-30 hrs a year. Avisail stinks. You can find a better one year stop gap

[fauowls44]

Again where are u gonna play all this MLB talent in July? They want to play the young guys

C-Alfaro
1B-Lewin/Cooper
2B-Isan
SS-Rojas/Berti(Jazz might be ready?)
3B-BA
LF-?
CF-Monte/Sierra
RF-Jesus/Harold

Besides LF they are pretty much full. I agree with what u are saying AND would try to sign Castellanos AND Didi for 3B/IF(move BA to RF)MYSELF but they seem to wanna let the young guys play as much as possible starting in July

They dont want Monte,Jesus,Lewin,even Jazz to sit in AAA all year and wonder next offseason what they got. This is the same thing wih the SP and why they want a 1yr+ option deal. Have a Roark be a SP till July then either trade him IF Sixto/Cabrera/Guzman/others are ready OR move him into LR role

- - - - - - - - - -



Rendon,Castellanos,Abreu,Didi,Ozuna Top 5 and Avisail is in next tier. Marlins see 20-30 HR guy when healthy who they can take a 2/3 yr look at for 15 million instead of 50 million

BP targets are gonna be Romo,Cishek or Betances(1 of them) and like 5 Milb FA with invites. We actually have alot of BP depth already and will be trading/DFA a few over next 2 weeks

They are looking at Roark,Pineda,Teheran and 2 or 3 others. Offering 1 yr +option to all of them but only want 1. Likely will trade whoever they get by deadline/next offseason. More of less just cover for the young arms in case injured or not ready

- - - - - - - - - -

THIS IS WHAT I AM HEARING!! Not my opinion. My opinion is sign Romo,Didi and/or Castellanos,SP and 2 vet bats like LY(just better than Grandy Man and Walker). Shit I would try for Rendon first!!! I am with lou Front load these contracts/spend some cash now

There’s just no reason to rush any of the prospects. They can certainly afford to sign a bat to a 2-3 year deal. Sanchez and Jazz are so young, playing a full AAA season wouldn’t be the worst thing.

[lou]

He actually did because he had the option to OPT out of the contract after 2017 season instead he exercised the player option for 4 years

Whatever it is he is likely to be Released OR more likely put on 60 Day with some "arm" issue and told to stay home. Bring him back over in July/Aug and pitches few games in Sept to keep him off the DL at end of the year.

He did not. He doesn't have a player option for 4 years, unless you include a "contingent additional option" at the end of those 4 years. So it's a 3 year option with the possibility of a 4th. Likewise, the money on Sportrac also does not add up for this supposed 4 year option as it has to add in the 4th year OR it's counting unknown deferred amounts. Hence the issue - there is a piece of information wrong/missing on Cots/Sportrac.

And it's not whatever he's going to be released. It's, is this albatross on payroll in 2022 or does the nightmare end in 2021.

- - - - - - - - - -

Again where are u gonna play all this MLB talent in July? They want to play the young guys

Which is why you spend ALL of your budget on front loading a guy that helps now and 2022 for CHEAP beacuse you frontloaded it.

Castellanos and a lot of Neil Walkers is the best idea.

[Nick]

No one probably knows this but Chen and his agent. Miami FO probably doesnt even(JK they know but likely look it over daily)

I asked someone like 2 years ago but if remember right

$1M - 11/30/21
$15M - 6/30/22

are only paid IF the vesting option is picked up which is 16 million

If that's the case then there is a missing $18.5 million instead of a missing $2.5 million to get to the $80 million number that does not include that vesting option of $16 million.

[lou]

If that's the case then there is a missing $18.5 million instead of a missing $2.5 million to get to the $80 million number that does not include that vesting option of $16 million.

I'm going to email them. I am going to take up this time suck up.

[lou]

Baseball prospectus/Cots has been emailed.

[lou]

There’s just no reason to rush any of the prospects. They can certainly afford to sign a bat to a 2-3 year deal. Sanchez and Jazz are so young, playing a full AAA season wouldn’t be the worst thing.

Absolutely. Just look at a roster flow for 2020:

P Opening Day / Aug 1

C Alfaro / Alfaro
C Wallach / Wallach(or whoever)

1B Cooper / Lewin
1B ______ / Cooper < - Dean could be here too, but can sign a very cheap backup 1B veteran to open year and won't be a big deal
2B Isan / Isan
2B Berti / Berti
SS Rojas / Rojas
3B Anderson / Anderson
3B _______ / ________ < - Sign a Neil Walker veteran for the year. If Jazz is totally awesome, call him up and move Rojas/Berti here

LF _______ / ________ < - A longterm LF who bats right handed makes a ton of sense. We can't put Bleday, Scott, etc. here for 2 years. Dean is next best internally.
CF Brinson (or Berti) / Monte
RF Ramirez / J. Sanchez
OF Sierra / Sierra

SP Sandy / Sandy
SP Pablo / Pablo
SP Caleb / Caleb
SP Urena or _____ / Sixto < - See below
SP E. Hernandez / Neidert

RP Stanek / Guzman < - Moved to pen
RP Steckenrider / E. Cabrera < - Just saying bullpen for 2020 to give him a taste and not overwhelm innings
RP Brigham / Brigham
RP Brice / E. Hernandez < - converted to reliever
RP ______ or Urena / Milbrath/literally whoever < - Sign a veteran righty to trade later. Could be a MiLB deal to start. OR move Urena here and sign a SP to replace him above

LP Garcia / Garcia
LP Conley / Quijada/Castano/Vesia
LP ______ / Quijada/Castano/Vesia < - Sign a veteran lefty to trade later. Could be a MiLB deal to start


This boils down to:
-A longterm right handed bat for LF (or 3B and move Anderson). Front load deal to help 2022-2023.
-Cheap infield backups, as you can move Berti, Anderson, and Cooper to the OF so you have plenty of coverage
-Two veteran pitchers, don't need to be expensive

I straight up think you spend $15-20 million on the bat and under $10 on the next four guys combined. They'll be under $70 million EASY. Front load the "big" bat and/or Anderson you're still under $80.

[rmc523]

No one probably knows this but Chen and his agent. Miami FO probably doesnt even(JK they know but likely look it over daily)

I asked someone like 2 years ago but if remember right

$1M - 11/30/21
$15M - 6/30/22

are only paid IF the vesting option is picked up which is 16 million

The Miami Marlins and free-agent left-hander Wei-Yin Chen have agreed to a five-year, $80 million deal that includes a sixth-year vesting option, sources told ESPN's Buster Olney.


The deal could be worth up to $96 million if the sixth-year option vests, and Chen can opt out of the contract after the second year, sources told Olney.


Like ESPN says the 16 million ONLY if option vests!!!!

This was why everyone knew Jeff was selling the team in 2017 he was offering EVERYONE(Kenley Jensen got same type of offer) deferred contracts with first 2 years paying nothing

- - - - - - - - - -



Its less about the draft pick and more about the draft pool $ they get. IF u lose a 3rd Rd Pick u lose 1 million dollars. If u add a 1S pick u add 2.2 million. They wanna do what they have done the past 2 drafts and overspend which means the MORE draft pool $ the more talent they can get. This is the last year in their minds they can just add as much as possible/just draft whatever. 3rd Rd Pick probably doesnt do anything BUT if u lose 1 million in draft pool $ it means later rounds its gonna look like a Jeff Loria draft

Just saying this as an example IF Miami would have signed Castellanos as a FA LY and lost 3rd Rd Pick they probably don't have Burdick/Fitterer/Mokma in system. Likely would have passed on Misner too because they were in love with Nasim Nunez.

I agree I would go hard after Rendon and if fails go Castellanos/Roark/Romo and some RH vet but instead looks like they are going Avisail/Roark,Pineda,Teheran/Romo/Brock Holt and none will be here in 2022, Should note they plan to be aggressive in FA next year what it means? No clue what aggressive means but what heard

Note on Brock Holt-actually heard it from 2 people today that Marlins want him as Vet LHB UT guy(plays 1B/2B/SS/3B and Corners). Should know around Nov 17-20 cause Riddle likely to be DFA/traded

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...ee-agents.html

Here's the list of FA next offseason. Outside of Betts or Springer, there isn't much out there to be "aggressive".

He actually did because he had the option to OPT out of the contract after 2017 season instead he exercised the player option for 4 years

Whatever it is he is likely to be Released OR more likely put on 60 Day with some "arm" issue and told to stay home. Bring him back over in July/Aug and pitches few games in Sept to keep him off the DL at end of the year.

Why wouldn't they want him to just stay on the DL at the end of the year? That alone would negate the option.