2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[lou]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...ee-agents.html

Here's the list of FA next offseason. Outside of Betts or Springer, there isn't much out there to be "aggressive".

Right, this is also why I think this is the year to go for Rendon/Ozuna/Castellanos/etc. type signing. They are better fits for them right now, and can deflect some payroll in 2020/2021 when no one is hitting arbitration yet. Those guys being cheaper in 2022+ is huge. The 2022 FA class is great, so pay a dude now to get him cheaper to be able to make an impact acquisition in 2022!

There are plenty of ABs for everyone even if all of Lewin/Bleday/Sanchez/Monte work out in 2 years. The Dodgers only had Bellinger get over 600 PA last year. Muncy didn't even get there, and Muncy is a top 50 position player in baseball. Redundancy isn't an issue if that is their theoretical excuse.

Let's BUILD

[rmc523]

Right, this is also why I think this is the year to go for Rendon/Ozuna/Castellanos/etc. type signing. They are better fits for them right now, and can deflect some payroll in 2020/2021 when no one is hitting arbitration yet. Those guys being cheaper in 2022+ is huge. The 2022 FA class is great, so pay a dude now to get him cheaper to be able to make an impact acquisition in 2022!

There are plenty of ABs for everyone even if all of Lewin/Bleday/Sanchez/Monte work out in 2 years. The Dodgers only had Bellinger get over 600 PA last year. Muncy didn't even get there, and Muncy is a top 50 position player in baseball. Redundancy isn't an issue if that is their theoretical excuse.

Let's BUILD

Agree. Grab one of them while they're there.

[fish16]

For the sake of this year and the inevitability of not signing rendon or Cole, I wouldn’t mind didi on a high APY but low years deal, then move Rojas to 3b, Anderson to RF. Seems like a better and higher ceiling move than just signing one of these retread of’s on a 1 year deal that seems to never work out for us when it comes to veteran bats.

Then you’d have Alfaro
Cooper
Diaz
Didi
Rojas/berti?
Of- Anderson
Of- Sierra, brinson, or low cost free agent on a one year deal
Of- Ramirez/dean split time

Then sign Pineda and romo and a few other milb bullpen invite to spring training arms and go with a rotation of

Sandy
Caleb
Lopez
Pineda
Insert any of the other 10 prospects we have until sixto is ready in June

I like that roster for next year if we can’t sign rendon or Cole. I’d rather that then invest big money for more than 2 years for someone who isn’t worthy of that money for the sake of spending money to appease fans. Don’t reduce long term flexibility on a move that won’t significantly improve winning for the sake of proving something to a fan base who has consistently proven they will support you only when you start to win

- - - - - - - - - -

Then you have guys ideally coming up after the deadline like Neidert, monte, Jazz, sixto, Cabrera, Sanchez, etc

[lou]

For the sake of this year and the inevitability of not signing rendon or Cole, I wouldn’t mind didi on a high APY but low years deal, then move Rojas to 3b, Anderson to RF. Seems like a better and higher ceiling move than just signing one of these retread of’s on a 1 year deal that seems to never work out for us when it comes to veteran bats.

Then you’d have Alfaro
Cooper
Diaz
Didi
Rojas/berti?
Of- Anderson
Of- Sierra, brinson, or low cost free agent on a one year deal
Of- Ramirez/dean split time

Then sign Pineda and romo and a few other milb bullpen invite to spring training arms and go with a rotation of

Sandy
Caleb
Lopez
Pineda
Insert any of the other 10 prospects we have until sixto is ready in June

I like that roster for next year if we can’t sign rendon or Cole. I’d rather that then invest big money for more than 2 years for someone who isn’t worthy of that money for the sake of spending money to appease fans. Don’t reduce long term flexibility on a move that won’t significantly improve winning for the sake of proving something to a fan base who has consistently proven they will support you only when you start to win

- - - - - - - - - -

Then you have guys ideally coming up after the deadline like Neidert, monte, Jazz, sixto, Cabrera, Sanchez, etc

They need a right hander long term (way) more, but if they can secure Didi for CHEAP that would be great. He's good and glad you came around!

It also DOES however, reduce long term flexibility signing a guy to a high value contract for 2 years as that DOES NOT help front load a deal for Ozuna/Castellanos and/or Anderson buy-out to deflect 2022-2023 payout. Broken record, use your payroll to your advantage and get a guy who can help in 2022+ and pay more the first two years. I can easily craft scenarios where they can add an extra $10 million dollar a year player for 2022 and 2023 just by frontloading Castellnos/Ozuna and Anderson. That's a huge deal how I see it. Imagine two $5 million a year relievers even. Those dudes are going to be awesome.

[fish16]

I have had the exact same opinion on didi since the beginning. He’s not a star and he’s not a guy you give big money to or a lot of years. I’ve said numerous times I’d give him whatever on a two year deal

[tjfla]

He did not. He doesn't have a player option for 4 years, unless you include a "contingent additional option" at the end of those 4 years. So it's a 3 year option with the possibility of a 4th. Likewise, the money on Sportrac also does not add up for this supposed 4 year option as it has to add in the 4th year OR it's counting unknown deferred amounts. Hence the issue - there is a piece of information wrong/missing on Cots/Sportrac.

And it's not whatever he's going to be released. It's, is this albatross on payroll in 2022 or does the nightmare end in 2021.

- - - - - - - - - -



Which is why you spend ALL of your budget on front loading a guy that helps now and 2022 for CHEAP beacuse you frontloaded it.

Castellanos and a lot of Neil Walkers is the best idea.

Yes he did

Contract Notes:

Player opt out available after 2017 (4 days after 2017 World Series)

Instead of opting out of contract he opted IN to 18/19/20 and vesting option

- - - - - - - - - -

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...ee-agents.html

Here's the list of FA next offseason. Outside of Betts or Springer, there isn't much out there to be "aggressive".



Why wouldn't they want him to just stay on the DL at the end of the year? That alone would negate the option.

Cause the option vests IF Chen is NOT on the DL at the end of 2020 and is healthy in 2021

If he pitches in July blows out arm(u know this will happen because its us) his option vests automatic

- - - - - - - - - -

Absolutely. Just look at a roster flow for 2020:

P Opening Day / Aug 1

C Alfaro / Alfaro
C Wallach / Wallach(or whoever)

1B Cooper / Lewin
1B ______ / Cooper < - Dean could be here too, but can sign a very cheap backup 1B veteran to open year and won't be a big deal
2B Isan / Isan
2B Berti / Berti
SS Rojas / Rojas
3B Anderson / Anderson
3B _______ / ________ < - Sign a Neil Walker veteran for the year. If Jazz is totally awesome, call him up and move Rojas/Berti here

LF _______ / ________ < - A longterm LF who bats right handed makes a ton of sense. We can't put Bleday, Scott, etc. here for 2 years. Dean is next best internally.
CF Brinson (or Berti) / Monte
RF Ramirez / J. Sanchez
OF Sierra / Sierra

SP Sandy / Sandy
SP Pablo / Pablo
SP Caleb / Caleb
SP Urena or _____ / Sixto < - See below
SP E. Hernandez / Neidert

RP Stanek / Guzman < - Moved to pen
RP Steckenrider / E. Cabrera < - Just saying bullpen for 2020 to give him a taste and not overwhelm innings
RP Brigham / Brigham
RP Brice / E. Hernandez < - converted to reliever
RP ______ or Urena / Milbrath/literally whoever < - Sign a veteran righty to trade later. Could be a MiLB deal to start. OR move Urena here and sign a SP to replace him above

LP Garcia / Garcia
LP Conley / Quijada/Castano/Vesia
LP ______ / Quijada/Castano/Vesia < - Sign a veteran lefty to trade later. Could be a MiLB deal to start


This boils down to:
-A longterm right handed bat for LF (or 3B and move Anderson). Front load deal to help 2022-2023.
-Cheap infield backups, as you can move Berti, Anderson, and Cooper to the OF so you have plenty of coverage
-Two veteran pitchers, don't need to be expensive

I straight up think you spend $15-20 million on the bat and under $10 on the next four guys combined. They'll be under $70 million EASY. Front load the "big" bat and/or Anderson you're still under $80.

This boils down to:
-A longterm right handed bat for LF (or 3B and move Anderson). Front load deal to help 2022-2023. (Avisail)
-Cheap infield backups, as you can move Berti, Anderson, and Cooper to the OF so you have plenty of coverage(Brock Holt)
-Two veteran pitchers, don't need to be expensive(Romo and Roark)

By way Milbrath and Heineman are Milb FA

[rmc523]

Yes he did

Contract Notes:

Player opt out available after 2017 (4 days after 2017 World Series)

Instead of opting out of contract he opted IN to 18/19/20 and vesting option

- - - - - - - - - -



Cause the option vests IF Chen is NOT on the DL at the end of 2020 and is healthy in 2021

If he pitches in July blows out arm(u know this will happen because its us) his option vests automatic

Right. It vests if he's NOT on the DL at the end of the season.

So if he's ON the DL at the end of the season, doesn't that mean the option then automatically won't vest? right??


END 2020 > NOT on DL; 2021 > healthy = Option Vests
END 2020 > ON on DL; 2021 > healthy = Option Does NOT Vest

So why would you NOT want him ON the DL at the end of next season?

---

I thought there was also an innings component over two seasons to it? Or was it an innings OR health thing?

[fish16]

I’m almost positive that it was an innings thing that triggers the extra year unless that somehow changed. I believe it was like 300 innings or something stupid over the final two years of the deal that triggers the extra year vesting

[rmc523]

2021 option vests with
180 IP in 2020, or 360 across 2019-20
Is not on the DL at the end of 2020 and is healthy in 2021

---

I haven't been able to figure out whether both sets of conditions have to be met, or if it's one or the other.

If it's both, there's no way it'll vest.

[lou]

Yes he did

Contract Notes:

Player opt out available after 2017 (4 days after 2017 World Series)

Instead of opting out of contract he opted IN to 18/19/20 and vesting option

- - - - - - - - - -



Cause the option vests IF Chen is NOT on the DL at the end of 2020 and is healthy in 2021

If he pitches in July blows out arm(u know this will happen because its us) his option vests automatic

- - - - - - - - - -

[/B]

Jesus christ, stop. He enacted an option for three guaranteed years 2018-2020. THREE. There is no argument here. Sportrac says FOUR AND SEVENTY FIVE MILLION. There is no FOURTH year OR $75 million. It's a conditional option, and the money isn't guaranteed. He physically can't option this 4th year. It's a wrong typo on Sportrac's site. Just stop.

Overall, I've emailed baseball prospectus. We will have an answer soon of what the typo is. They will respond.

- - - - - - - - - -

This boils down to:
-A longterm right handed bat for LF (or 3B and move Anderson). Front load deal to help 2022-2023. (Avisail)
-Cheap infield backups, as you can move Berti, Anderson, and Cooper to the OF so you have plenty of coverage(Brock Holt)
-Two veteran pitchers, don't need to be expensive(Romo and Roark)

By way Milbrath and Heineman are Milb FA

Didn't notice Milbrath was released, I guess he is not a Brice! Is Keller released? D. Lee?

Avisail is literally not that player too.

- - - - - - - - - -

2021 option vests with
180 IP in 2020, or 360 across 2019-20
Is not on the DL at the end of 2020 and is healthy in 2021

---

I haven't been able to figure out whether both sets of conditions have to be met, or if it's one or the other.

If it's both, there's no way it'll vest.

I think both conditions have to be met. He has to throw those innings and be healthy.

I will wait for BP to email me back and follow up with this if needed.

[emkayseven]

This indicates a moving of the goal posts, so it's no longer 2021 we think we should be able to compete, it's 2022. I think our point is, if you want to compete in 2021, you gotta do more this offseason to improve the team, or else you're going to completely reliant on rookie players and probably overspend on free agents next offseason, and that's not really a recipe for competing.

1996 and 1997 are a good example. We brought in Al Leiter, Kevin Brown, and Robb Nen before the 96 season. We were still bad in 96, but we were in a better spot for the next round of call ups and FA acquisitions to allow us to make a run 1997.

FWIW Nen was here in 93. Devo was the other big guy we brought in in 96.

[Nick]

FWIW Nen was here in 93. Devo was the other big guy we brought in in 96.

Oh yeah good call. I forgot about Devo.

[lou]

Jeff Euston from Baseball Prospectus emailed me back:

The $80 million figure consists of the $13 bonus, plus $67 in 2016-20 annual salaries ($6+$9+$10+$20+$22). Player options are considered guaranteed money for the player. Deferred money plays no part in calculating the guarantee. But yeah, the $80 figure is a fiction because the deferrals reduce the present value of the deal down to something in the $73-$74 range. But the agents love the ability to tout the total guarantee. The player option was essentially 3 years, $52 million before deferrals.

And yes, unless or until the 2021 option vests (unlikely at this point), we can ignore that $16M salary and the final two deferral payments of $1M and $15M. Set aside the $13 signing bonus, and that leaves $67 in salary:

So the Marlins still owe $38 million in cash: $4M on 11/30/19, $5M in-season for 2020, $9M on 6/30/20, $5M on 11/30/20, and $15M on 6/30/21.

That said, for contracts with deferrals, clubs generally set aside the money as it is earned, putting it in an annuity until the player is scheduled to receive payments. That allows the team to 1) collect interest for several months or years and 2) carry the full salary on its books in the year the money is earned, preventing it from dragging down payroll going forward. I assume that's what the Marlins did. But each team is free to juggle the accounting the way it sees fit.

Hope that helps.
jeff

NO 2022 MONEY. REJOICE.

[lou]

Alfaro $650,000
Wallach/Other CC $625,000

Cooper $650,000
Backup Veteran __________

Diaz $600,000
Rojas $5,000,000
Berti $600,000

Anderson $650,000

H. Ramirez $600,000
Brinson $625,000
Sierra $600,000
Ideally longterm Veteran __________
Backup Veteran __________

Urena $4,250,000
Pablo $625,000
Caleb $650,000
Alcantara $625,000
E. Hernandez $625,000

Stanek $650,000
Steckenrider $625,000
Brice $625,000
Brigham $625,000
Backup Veteran __________

Garcia $625,000
Conley $1,750,000
Backup Veteran __________

Castro Option Decline $1,000,000
Chen Dead Money $19,000,000

Total Payroll $42,275,000 < - Fuck these guys, spend $10 million on the cheap lines above, and $20-30 million dollars on a longterm right handed bat and Anderson buy out

2021 payroll - Arbitration raises add $15, but subtract Urena ($4.25), Conley ($1.75), Chen ($3 less), Castro ($1 off books) - $47ish

2022 payroll - New arbitration raises, $15-20 million; Rojas off books (subtract $5) - $60ish. BUT, likely low $50s as some of the RP or a SP may be moved

[Nick]

Jeff Euston from Baseball Prospectus emailed me back:



NO 2022 MONEY. REJOICE.

I'm still a little confused. Why would a player agree to a deferral that in the end gives them less money then they were previously going to get?