2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[tjfla]

Jeff Euston from Baseball Prospectus emailed me back:



NO 2022 MONEY. REJOICE.

Ya thats what I thought about the final 2 payments.

"Arm" Injury in ST,60 Day DL till August/Sept,throws 2 or 3 games and does NOT finish the season on the DL.

Sounds like a perfect timeline for Chen OR DFA

- - - - - - - - - -

Alfaro $650,000
Wallach/Other CC $625,000

Cooper $650,000
Backup Veteran __________

Diaz $600,000
Rojas $5,000,000
Berti $600,000

Anderson $650,000

H. Ramirez $600,000
Brinson $625,000
Sierra $600,000
Ideally longterm Veteran __________
Backup Veteran __________

Urena $4,250,000
Pablo $625,000
Caleb $650,000
Alcantara $625,000
E. Hernandez $625,000

Stanek $650,000
Steckenrider $625,000
Brice $625,000
Brigham $625,000
Backup Veteran __________

Garcia $625,000
Conley $1,750,000
Backup Veteran __________

Castro Option Decline $1,000,000
Chen Dead Money $19,000,000

Total Payroll $42,275,000 < - Fuck these guys, spend $10 million on the cheap lines above, and $20-30 million dollars on a longterm right handed bat and Anderson buy out

2021 payroll - Arbitration raises add $15, but subtract Urena ($4.25), Conley ($1.75), Chen ($3 less), Castro ($1 off books) - $47ish

2022 payroll - New arbitration raises, $15-20 million; Rojas off books (subtract $5) - $60ish. BUT, likely low $50s as some of the RP or a SP may be moved

Wallach/Other CC $625,000

Cooper $650,000
Backup Veteran Brock Holt if sign Castellanos to be OF/1B

Diaz $600,000
Rojas $5,000,000
Berti $600,000

Anderson $650,000

H. Ramirez $600,000
Brinson $625,000
Sierra $600,000
Ideally longterm Veteran Castellanos would look great here OF/1B
Backup Veteran __________

Urena $4,250,000
Pablo $625,000
Caleb $650,000
Alcantara $625,000
E. Hernandez $625,000

Stanek $650,000
Steckenrider $625,000
Brice $625,000
Brigham $625,000
Backup Veteran Romo

Garcia $625,000
Conley $1,750,000
Backup Veteran Prolly Quijada but FO will sign like 3 or 4 MILB and got Lee/Castano

Brigham,Steck,Stanek,Harold,Dean,Brinson all have options still


Guys who are Rule 5 NEXT year are Garrett/Rogers/George Soriano/Luis Palacios/Tyler Stevens/Aiello/Jerar/Brian Miller/Devers

This is where trading for Lindor or Boston guys whether or not they sign an extension comes in. U have to add atleast 9 guys next offseason why not try making offers of Devers/SP and OF around the league and see if get bites!! This is also why IF the pitching market is nuts like LY u could see guys like Caleb/Steck/Stanek/Garcia moved. Gonna be rough Nov 2020 for this FO

[tjfla]

Jesus christ, stop. He enacted an option for three guaranteed years 2018-2020. THREE. There is no argument here. Sportrac says FOUR AND SEVENTY FIVE MILLION. There is no FOURTH year OR $75 million. It's a conditional option, and the money isn't guaranteed. He physically can't option this 4th year. It's a wrong typo on Sportrac's site. Just stop.

Overall, I've emailed baseball prospectus. We will have an answer soon of what the typo is. They will respond.

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Didn't notice Milbrath was released, I guess he is not a Brice! Is Keller released? D. Lee?

Avisail is literally not that player too.

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I think both conditions have to be met. He has to throw those innings and be healthy.

I will wait for BP to email me back and follow up with this if needed.

Milbrath was NOT released. He is a minor league FA(6 yrs and NOT on 40 man). Resign him to a minor league deal with invite after Nov 20, Wouldnt be surprised if Alvarez,Milbrath,Vigil,Seymour,Heineman,Zach Scott(Dad is Dick Scott) are all resigned in few weeks

They like all of those guys but beside Alvarez/Milbrath most are just minor league depth

[lou]

I'm still a little confused. Why would a player agree to a deferral that in the end gives them less money then they were previously going to get?

Because it's the best deal they can get?

I think we can put this one to bed. $19 million 2020, $15 million 2021.

Nothing else really matters but I'm glad as this is how I thought it was for years with 2022 being clean.

- - - - - - - - - -

Backup Veteran Brock Holt if sign Castellanos to be OF/1B
Ideally longterm Veteran Castellanos would look great here OF/1B
Backup Veteran __________
Backup Veteran Romo
Backup Veteran Prolly Quijada but FO will sign like 3 or 4 MILB and got Lee/Castano

Brigham,Steck,Stanek,Harold,Dean,Brinson all have options still


Guys who are Rule 5 NEXT year are Garrett/Rogers/George Soriano/Luis Palacios/Tyler Stevens/Aiello/Jerar/Brian Miller/Devers

This is where trading for Lindor or Boston guys whether or not they sign an extension comes in. U have to add atleast 9 guys next offseason why not try making offers of Devers/SP and OF around the league and see if get bites!! This is also why IF the pitching market is nuts like LY u could see guys like Caleb/Steck/Stanek/Garcia moved. Gonna be rough Nov 2020 for this FO

That is a good offseason plan, assuming the other backup veteran and lefty reliever are "Neil Walker" quality solid players and not "Herrera and Grandersons"

As for the 40 man, they can also ditch - Brinson, Ramirez (he's OK but they have better OF), Dean, Urena, and Conley at a minimum. And then, they can easily trade/DFA Stanek, Steckenrider, Brice, Conley, and Dugger to move out the arms to bring in the new ones. They have some space here, as also, guys like Berti, Brigham, Hernandez, Castano, and Quijada could just fail, and like you said, they could also trade better guys like Caleb/Garcia if there is a roster crunch. The 40 man is going to be very competitive, but not crazy like SD/TB where they have to make trades or be subject to losing 3-4 solid names. They aren't quite there yet unless there is an explosion of minor league relievers next year.

- - - - - - - - - -

Milbrath was NOT released. He is a minor league FA(6 yrs and NOT on 40 man). Resign him to a minor league deal with invite after Nov 20, Wouldnt be surprised if Alvarez,Milbrath,Vigil,Seymour,Heineman,Zach Scott(Dad is Dick Scott) are all resigned in few weeks

They like all of those guys but beside Alvarez/Milbrath most are just minor league depth

I like Heineman as a project 3rd catcher and Milbrath as a non-roster player for sure.

[Nick]

Because it's the best deal they can get?

I think we can put this one to bed. $19 million 2020, $15 million 2021.

Nothing else really matters but I'm glad as this is how I thought it was for years with 2022 being clean.

https://prosportsanalytics.com/2017/...sional-sports/

So maybe I misunderstood what a deferral was a little bit, sounds like the deferral was negotiated in the original contract negotiations. I was thinking Chen agreed to a contract and then later agreed to have some of the payment deferred. Still I don't quite understand the discrepancy between $80 million and $73-74 million that the BP guy brought up. (especially since Cots clearly calls out the money being deferred without interest) Scherzer having his 7 year $30 million per contract deferred to 14 year $15 million per I get. This Chen deal not so much.

[lou]

https://prosportsanalytics.com/2017/...sional-sports/

So maybe I misunderstood what a deferral was a little bit, sounds like the deferral was negotiated in the original contract negotiations. I was thinking Chen agreed to a contract and then later agreed to have some of the payment deferred. Still I don't quite understand the discrepancy between $80 million and $73-74 million that the BP guy brought up. (especially since Cots clearly calls out the money being deferred without interest) Scherzer having his 7 year $30 million per contract deferred to 14 year $15 million per I get. This Chen deal not so much.

I'm with you, I'm just concerned with what they owe the dude so I'm not going to worry about the math. Maybe something to do with present value of money is worth more than end of 2021 payments.

[rmc523]

Jesus christ, stop. He enacted an option for three guaranteed years 2018-2020. THREE. There is no argument here. Sportrac says FOUR AND SEVENTY FIVE MILLION. There is no FOURTH year OR $75 million. It's a conditional option, and the money isn't guaranteed. He physically can't option this 4th year. It's a wrong typo on Sportrac's site. Just stop.

Overall, I've emailed baseball prospectus. We will have an answer soon of what the typo is. They will respond.

....

I think both conditions have to be met. He has to throw those innings and be healthy.

I will wait for BP to email me back and follow up with this if needed.

Yeah, I think both have to be met as well.

I'm still a little confused. Why would a player agree to a deferral that in the end gives them less money then they were previously going to get?

https://prosportsanalytics.com/2017/...sional-sports/

So maybe I misunderstood what a deferral was a little bit, sounds like the deferral was negotiated in the original contract negotiations. I was thinking Chen agreed to a contract and then later agreed to have some of the payment deferred. Still I don't quite understand the discrepancy between $80 million and $73-74 million that the BP guy brought up. (especially since Cots clearly calls out the money being deferred without interest) Scherzer having his 7 year $30 million per contract deferred to 14 year $15 million per I get. This Chen deal not so much.

Unless a contract was restructured (we'd have heard about it), any sort of deferrals would've been agreed to in the original contract (much how we often hear about Washington including deferrals in their signings of their big guys). It's odd, though, that we never heard much about the deferrals at the time of the contract.

As for the 80/73-4M discrepancy, that is likely just accounting stuff with present and future value. Accounting wasn't my strong suit in school, but I'd have to assume what he's saying is that at the time of signing, present value was 80M, and fast forward to now with the deferrals, the "future value" (of the original figure, the current value now) wound up being 73-4M. I guess that's because you're pushing the cost out further than what's "valued" in the term of the contract, so therefore money after that is worth less? I wish I had paid more attention in school to give more insight into this - numbers aren't my friend lol.

[emkayseven]

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/m...237123399.html

Hill said all options are on the table INCLUDING guys with QOs

come home Marcell

[sports24/7]

Ya thats what I thought about the final 2 payments.

"Arm" Injury in ST,60 Day DL till August/Sept,throws 2 or 3 games and does NOT finish the season on the DL.

Sounds like a perfect timeline for Chen OR DFA

- - - - - - - - - -



Wallach/Other CC $625,000

Cooper $650,000
Backup Veteran Brock Holt if sign Castellanos to be OF/1B

Diaz $600,000
Rojas $5,000,000
Berti $600,000

Anderson $650,000

H. Ramirez $600,000
Brinson $625,000
Sierra $600,000
Ideally longterm Veteran Castellanos would look great here OF/1B
Backup Veteran __________

Urena $4,250,000
Pablo $625,000
Caleb $650,000
Alcantara $625,000
E. Hernandez $625,000

Stanek $650,000
Steckenrider $625,000
Brice $625,000
Brigham $625,000
Backup Veteran Romo

Garcia $625,000
Conley $1,750,000
Backup Veteran Prolly Quijada but FO will sign like 3 or 4 MILB and got Lee/Castano

Brigham,Steck,Stanek,Harold,Dean,Brinson all have options still


Guys who are Rule 5 NEXT year are Garrett/Rogers/George Soriano/Luis Palacios/Tyler Stevens/Aiello/Jerar/Brian Miller/Devers

This is where trading for Lindor or Boston guys whether or not they sign an extension comes in. U have to add atleast 9 guys next offseason why not try making offers of Devers/SP and OF around the league and see if get bites!! This is also why IF the pitching market is nuts like LY u could see guys like Caleb/Steck/Stanek/Garcia moved. Gonna be rough Nov 2020 for this FO

Wait, I thought Castellanos wasn't in play.

- - - - - - - - - -

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/m...237123399.html

Hill said all options are on the table INCLUDING guys with QOs

come home Marcell

That would be great, but I'll believe it when I see it. I'd bet they'll spend on a few replacement level FAs to make it look like they're trying, but in actuality that would just be a waste of money. I hope they prove me wrong, though.

[lou]

I mean, there are really only 4 FA that make total sense for a team looking to contend in a few years - Rendon and Cole because they are superstars, and Ozuna and Castellanos as they are in their prime right handed bats who will still be good in 3-4 years.

Strausburg and Bumgarner have major mileage.

Someone can convince me on Wheeler

Ryu, Grandal, Donaldson older

Odorizzi, Hamels, and Keuchel not stars

Mouse and Didi are lefties and they have plenty of them longterm.

Then there is Puig and Avisail. Is anyone interested for 4 years with them to really look down a corner as a 2.5+ WAR guy like Ozuna and Castellanos?

[Namaste]

Ozuna c’mon one time

[emkayseven]

I’m a HUGE Wheeler fan but yeah, to me it’s those 5 or take on salary in a trade for more prospects

[rmc523]

Wait, I thought Castellanos wasn't in play.

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That would be great, but I'll believe it when I see it. I'd bet they'll spend on a few replacement level FAs to make it look like they're trying, but in actuality that would just be a waste of money. I hope they prove me wrong, though.

I agree, that's likely all we'll see.

[Todd]

I still think some of you are wayyy too optimisitc about the timeframe of this team competing for even the second wild card spot.

[lou]

I still think some of you are wayyy too optimisitc about the timeframe of this team competing for even the second wild card spot.

So you think their plan is to tank for 6 years to be good in 7?

They will be going for it 2022 latest. That'll be year 5.

[tjfla]

Wait, I thought Castellanos wasn't in play.

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That would be great, but I'll believe it when I see it. I'd bet they'll spend on a few replacement level FAs to make it look like they're trying, but in actuality that would just be a waste of money. I hope they prove me wrong, though.

Castellanos/Didi are in play. The guys that are NOT in play(Mike Hill said ALL but LIE) are guys that got QO. They would consider Cole and Rendon but we are longshots at this point

If Castellanos is still on the market and doesn't want a crazy deal I could see us get in on him. They like him as Corners/1B power bat