2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[tjfla]

They absolutely murdered the Cardinals in the Ozuna trade. Murdered them. Sandy had a 2.3 WAR last year and Ozuna 2.6. You should be thrilled.

Sandy was 87th out of 436 pitchers in AVG exit velocity, 100 batted events. That's top 20% in the league as a 23 year old rookie, and I intentionally sorted by 100 batted ball events so major relievers would get in these rankings.

Dial that back to 250 events to get the relievers out..... he is 24th out of 152 (16th percentile). Morton is in front of him, and Paddack and Soroka are a few behind him. This is not "middle of the pack."

I agree he would be an awesome reliever, but so would anyone with this profile. I hope he starts getting more guys to whiff too, and don't you give him that chance because the batted ball profile is REALLY GOOD and BORDERLINE ELITE. As a 23 yer old throwing his first full season, with the most innings of his career.

You take a mediocre #3/4 SP throwing 197 innings over a non-Hader/Yates reliever any day. Only 2 relievers in baseball (Hendricks, Yates, tie with Hader) were more valuable than Sandy last year.

Ozuna for Sandy/Jazz/Sierra/Castano doesn't look to bad now huh especially since Ozuna gone from St Louis likely

Castano likely will be on 40 man. Still not close to majors but 25 who can be SP/RP and is a big lefty

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Pomeranz was lights out of the bullpen so I think he may be too expensive. Someone is going to pay him for 2-3 years how I see it.

I agree they should bring in a Bailey, or a Roark, or Alex Wood-rehab type, and fill a SP roll through July. I think you stick Urena back in the rotation. This is a good depth chart to open:

Sandy, Pablo, Caleb, "Veteran," Urena w/ Hernandez, Yamamoto, and Dugger your call ups first three months of the year, and we can add likely Sixto and Neidert to that after the Super 2 deadline (and Guzman if he is a SP).
(I won't be annoyed if someone wants to move Urena and we let Yamamoto rip, but I just don't see a need to do that when they can stash them in AAA and Urena is a fully capable 4/5 SP when healthy and could turn into something at the deadline as he is controlled for 2021 and wouldn't be a rental.)

I also think there is no possibility they have 4 rookie SP in the rotation in July, but I hope you're right because that means they are awesome. Also, I don't think Yamamoto or Dugger play up in the bullpen, unless the Marlins convert over to a Rays philosophy and they become a bulk 2-3+ IP reliever 1-2 times a week. I don't think this happens with Mattingly and Astros/Nationals success this year. I think they are SP or nothing for this franchise.

I expect this midseason:

SP - Sandy (he is better than you give him credit for, even if not a future # 1), Pablo, Caleb, Sixto, Neidert/Yamamoto

RHP - Guzman, Brigham, E. Hernandez (he would play up in the bullpen IMO), one of Urena/Stanek/Steckenrider/Brice survives attrition as the "veteran," and a "god knows who" 5th RHP as they have a ton of fringe arms and someone works out. I'll say Milbrath right now.

LHP - Garcia, and two big question marks, but maybe Quijada is one. (Or, I can see a scenario where Caleb has injury issues and is deemed better to be a 2-3 IP reliever and T. Rogers is fully converted to the pen as a lot of his projections predict, and all of a sudden you have a totally awesome 3 LHP bullpen on paper and slot Yamamoto into the rotation for now and he keeps the seat warm for Cabrera/Garrett. I actually love this idea provided there is high confidence Garrett turns into at least a # 4 SP.)

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They actually have 42 guys on the 40 man once you account for Fernandez, Steckenrider, Wallach, Anderson, and Riddle 60 man DL stays. But that's going to change fast as I think they can outright cut this entire list:

Chen
Fernandez
Guerrero
Keller
Kinley
Moran
Holaday
Wallach
Prado (retiring)
Riddle
Walker (FA)
Granderson (FA)
Puello

That gets you to 29, but there are some adds from the farm system (at least L. Diaz, Jazz, Sixto, Neidert, Mejia, W. Stewart, Castano), and then the maybe relievers (Keller, Kinley, Milbrath, and D. Lee seem like most probable of potentially getting a last spot or two).

They really don't have much room assuming they add 3-4 veteran guys.

Ya the 7 u mentioned are likely locks and Milbrath and Dylan Lee probably get added to protect them(Not sure they stick thru May). Wouldnt be surprised to see Riddle/Tyler Kinley/Keller/AA guys for non 40 man guys like LY when we got Stevens and Anderson

They wanna add atleast 1 Rule 5 guy maybe more depending on list. Likely RP or OF

[Todd]

We can disagree, but I'd like to see an actual reason and not the old eyeball test. I am putting emphasis on the cold hard fact Sandy has an incredibly interesting profile with his extremely low and borderline elite contact rates, where even a small uptick in Ks will pay enormous dividends (he throws hard, it could easily happen), and overall had a 2.3 WAR last year, which among pitchers who threw for more than 50 IP (so to capture the good relievers as you want to make him a reliever to try and help the numbers get lower for you), he was 19th percentile in performance. Let's chuck out the relievers, he was 46th percentile which is still really good. He is 23 and this was his rookie year. If you do induce weaker contact (which is confirmed), you're going to over-achieve on FIP/peripheral numbers because weaker contact means less hits.

This all makes sense when you look at the full package and it is very arguable whether he significantly over-performed peripherals. Maybe a little bit. This is a sustainable package if the contact/walk/k rates hold and Sandy is probably a low 4 era variance SP at his current skillset. If all Sandy does is produce an average 2.3 WAR for the next 5 years as the Marlins 3/4 SP that is beyond fantastic and sole crushing to the Cardinals ignoring Gallen/Jazz, Castano, and Sierra. (In fact, Ozuna produced 5.4 WAR for the Cardinals (and presumably a QFA draft pick), for $21.25 million dollars. This produced probably around $35+ million in surplus value assuming they draft a solid FV45 prospect (generous). Sandy already has 2.5 WAR as a Marlin, Gallen produced .8, and Sierra has produced an ugly -1 WAR (positive .5 last year though! Hope!). Accounting for low payroll to Sandy/Gallen/Sierra, they are halfway to Ozuna's actual surplus value production and Sandy is going to crush the Cardinals without Jazz.) Your perspective of this trade is just bizarre. I hope every trade the Marlins do is as lopsided as this in the Marlins favor.

Maybe he falls apart? I don't know. But it's beyond dumb just chucking him in the bullpen when he is flashing major upside as a 23 year old. If he gets pushed out because Sixto, Cabrera, Garrett, and Pablo are awesome, they sign a veteran, and Sandy looks like a max effort reliever in a few years when the league has seen him a few more times, so be it.

As for Alfaro, they just don't have anything in the minors remotely close and he's going to be cheap. For all his faults, he was a top 25 catcher last year and that's not a liability. I don't love him, but I don't hate him either. He's fine, and he's also worth the gamble he drops the whiff rate to 30% and then he's going to be a monster as he really hits the shit out of the ball when he makes contact. The Nationals would love to have him right now.

I am assuming you are right and they will give Alcantra chances. I just think he will end up in the pen and not because other players pushed him there. Just don't think he will be able to stick in the rotation and that the 2.3 WAR was an abberation that doesn't match his peripherals.

Time will tell who is right.

As for Alfaro, the K rate isn't even his biggest issue. He had a BABIP close to 400 and was still the third worst hitting catcher in baseball. His value is all defense. Hopefully in 2 years they have acquired someone and he can slide into a backup role.

[lou]

I am assuming you are right and they will give Alcantra chances. I just think he will end up in the pen and not because other players pushed him there. Just don't think he will be able to stick in the rotation and that the 2.3 WAR was an abberation that doesn't match his peripherals.

Time will tell who is right.

As for Alfaro, the K rate isn't even his biggest issue. He had a BABIP close to 400 and was still the third worst hitting catcher in baseball. His value is all defense. Hopefully in 2 years they have acquired someone and he can slide into a backup role.

I mean, he deserves the chance. He has been objectively pretty good. Either way, I think we can both agree they have a REALLY GOOD 4th SP or backend bullpen arm for 5 years here, with upside for more. I honestly don't care which way it lands (assuming they get 4 other rotation guys out of the rest of them). That's something to build off of on club controlled prices, with major upside. He's a good piece whatever happens.

I also don't care if Alfaro is all defensive value if he can average 2+ WAR at catcher. Production is production.

[Nick]

Alfaro's BABIP was .364, I wouldn't call that close to .400.

[Todd]

I mean, he deserves the chance. He has been objectively pretty good. Either way, I think we can both agree they have a REALLY GOOD 4th SP or backend bullpen arm for 5 years here, with upside for more. I honestly don't care which way it lands (assuming they get 4 other rotation guys out of the rest of them). That's something to build off of on club controlled prices, with major upside. He's a good piece whatever happens.

I also don't care if Alfaro is all defensive value if he can average 2+ WAR at catcher. Production is production.

He is 26 and one of the worst hitters at his position in the game even with a high BABIP and barely broke 1 WAR this year and that happened late in the season(he hovered around like .8 for much of the season if memory serves). He has a lot of work to do to even sniff 2.

We will just have to agree to disagree on Alcantara. If he is your 4th starter you aren't a playoff caliber team.

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I mean, he deserves the chance. He has been objectively pretty good. Either way, I think we can both agree they have a REALLY GOOD 4th SP or backend bullpen arm for 5 years here, with upside for more. I honestly don't care which way it lands (assuming they get 4 other rotation guys out of the rest of them). That's something to build off of on club controlled prices, with major upside. He's a good piece whatever happens.

I also don't care if Alfaro is all defensive value if he can average 2+ WAR at catcher. Production is production.

He is 26 and one of the worst hitters at his position in the game even with a high BABIP and barely broke 1 WAR this year and that happened late in the season(he hovered around like .8 for much of the season if memory serves). He has a lot of work to do to even sniff 2.

We will just have to agree to disagree on Alcantara. If he is your 4th starter you aren't a playoff caliber team.

[lou]

We will just have to agree to disagree on Alcantara. If he is your 4th starter you aren't a playoff caliber team.

Alcantara SP WAR comparison

Rays - tied 3rd in WAR (but Glasnow/Yarbourgh lower innings so call it 5th as they were better this year)
Yankees - 3rd in WAR (by a lot, Severino is hurt so sure call it 4th)
Twins - 5th in WAR (probably better than guys ahead of him. Kyle Gibson, etc.)
Astros - 3rd in WAR (Greinke was mid-season, so we’ll say 4th here)
As - 3rd in WAR
Braves - 3rd in WAR
Nationals - 5th in WAR
Cardinals - 3rd in WAR
Brewers - 2nd in WAR
Dodger - tied 4th in WAR (But Maeda has less innings, so call it 5th)

He's easily a 4th SP.

[Todd]

Again, I am considering that 2.3 an abberation as his peripherals say "really shouldn't even be in the majors".

Again, we will see who is right.

[tjfla]

I dont think Miami would mind a rotation like

Sixto
Garrett
Cabrera
Sandy
Neidert

#3 Pick like JT Ginn or Emerson Hancock in AAA who could bump Sandy or Cabrera to pen if needed

in 2022

Pablo Lopez(when healthy) is a solid #4/5 guy as well

In that option u got Trevor Rogers/Yamamoto/Elieser/Guzman/Holloway(maybe)/Vesia/CJ Carter in pen already

THIS IS JUST WHAT IS HERE NOW!!! Add trades/FA/Draft Picks

[tjfla]

I know draft talk is wayyyyy to early but at #3 u will get 1 of

Future #1/#2 SP Strasburg Comp
Power Hitting 1B with solid contact
2B/SS/3B(No set spot yet) Dansby Swanson with a better bat

All 3 should be ready sometime in 2022

[The Canadian]

Alcantara SP WAR comparison

Rays - tied 3rd in WAR (but Glasnow/Yarbourgh lower innings so call it 5th as they were better this year)
Yankees - 3rd in WAR (by a lot, Severino is hurt so sure call it 4th)
Twins - 5th in WAR (probably better than guys ahead of him. Kyle Gibson, etc.)
Astros - 3rd in WAR (Greinke was mid-season, so we’ll say 4th here)
As - 3rd in WAR
Braves - 3rd in WAR
Nationals - 5th in WAR
Cardinals - 3rd in WAR
Brewers - 2nd in WAR
Dodger - tied 4th in WAR (But Maeda has less innings, so call it 5th)

He's easily a 4th SP.

“I know you just gave me 75 reasons why Alcantara is a #4 starter on a playoff team BUT my eyes (and obvious blind hatred of him) tell me Alcantara doesn’t even belong in the Major Leagues”.

-Todd


-Todd

[lou]

I know draft talk is wayyyyy to early but at #3 u will get 1 of

Future #1/#2 SP Strasburg Comp
Power Hitting 1B with solid contact
2B/SS/3B(No set spot yet) Dansby Swanson with a better bat

All 3 should be ready sometime in 2022

Fangraphs moved Martin (IF) to # 1, with Hancock 2 (SP), and Tork (1B) 3. Positions for those scrolling down as I know you know them. A long ways to go, but this is straight up BPA college player if you ask me and it'll be hard for any other player to jump those guys absent a disaster. A lot of other college SP after them, so this will work itself out. I don't care who of them they draft.

Also, I think the ideal scenario, Patrick Bailey (C) sets the world on fire at NC State and moves into top 3 discussion. I'd love to bump out Tork from the spread as you can find 1B and Lewin/Cooper may be good enough. An elite catcher prospect would be nice to add to the depth chart and theoretically lock the position up for a decade with Alfaro-Banfield-Bailey combinations.

Side note - does Minn have a their PTBNL yet? Did I miss that?

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I dont think Miami would mind a rotation like

Sixto
Garrett
Cabrera
Sandy
Neidert

#3 Pick like JT Ginn or Emerson Hancock in AAA who could bump Sandy or Cabrera to pen if needed

in 2022

Pablo Lopez(when healthy) is a solid #4/5 guy as well

In that option u got Trevor Rogers/Yamamoto/Elieser/Guzman/Holloway(maybe)/Vesia/CJ Carter in pen already

THIS IS JUST WHAT IS HERE NOW!!! Add trades/FA/Draft Picks

Yea, I mean they must be drooling at this redundancy from a pure upside perspective:

Sixto/Guzman
Sandy/Cabrera
Pablo/Neidert
Garrett/Rogers/Caleb
Literally whoever is 5th best above/Yamamoto/Holloway/College SP 2020 draft/Free agency

Pablo has looked much better than a 4 when healthy too, so I think you're selling him a little short.

It's crazy to think maybe those first 4 all fail as SP, and then become the nastiest RHP bullpen in baseball. I've seen RP comps for all 4 of them so who knows. In that scenario, they are still probably fine if they get 4 solid SP out of the rest of them and sign 1 good free agent.

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Alfaro's BABIP was .364, I wouldn't call that close to .400.

In Todd's defense, it is .385 for his career. I'm not sure when that normalizes, but that's for 1,000 PA basically. Maybe it takes 2,000 PA to get to a real baseline. Either way, he's a high BABIP guy it seems and it's not all luck. He hits the ball hard and isn't a slug on the bases like Wilson Ramos.

He definitely needs to walk 2-3% of the time more, whiff 4-5% of the time less, and play defense closer to 2018 than 2019. That's getting to a consistent 3 WAR fast.

It's impossible to overlook he is 14th in catcher WAR the last 3 seasons though, and one of those wasn't a full year for him. I can't see any scenario where he isn't a solid "20th" catcher on average for the next few years and that's fine for right now compared to what he is costing. That's ignoring the upside.

[Nick]

There's no doubt Alfaro's approach at the plate is absolutely awful, but he has an innate ability it seems to square a ball up when he does make contact. Guy crushes the ball. He's good defensively, if he can just improve his approach to being just below average from maybe worst in the league, we're talking an all-star caliber player. Now that's easier said than done, but a player's plate discipline is something that can improve over time, it'll just be a matter of how quickly and how much he's able to improve.

[Todd]

“I know you just gave me 75 reasons why Alcantara is a #4 starter on a playoff team BUT my eyes (and obvious blind hatred of him) tell me Alcantara doesn’t even belong in the Major Leagues”.

-Todd


-Todd

And I have literally given just as many reasons why he is not and wont be.

I also don't hate him. I just don't think he belongs in an MLB rotation.

I think he would be great at the back end of a bullpen where his lack of pitches is not easily exposed(also worth noting the argument in favor of Alcantara was "hard hit %!" until that normalized to being league average and the goalposts had to be moved). The entire argument also hinges on him suddenly increasing his K rate and lowering his BB rate.

Again, I don't hate him. Or even dislike him. I don't think he should have ever been the centerpiece in a trade involving Ozuna coming off the year he had, especially when the secondary pieces themselves were a backend starter, a bench outfieldier on an AAA team who cant hit, and a non-prospect.

[lou]

And I have literally given just as many reasons why he is not and wont be.

I also don't hate him. I just don't think he belongs in an MLB rotation.

I think he would be great at the back end of a bullpen where his lack of pitches is not easily exposed(also worth noting the argument in favor of Alcantara was "hard hit %!" until that normalized to being league average and the goalposts had to be moved). The entire argument also hinges on him suddenly increasing his K rate and lowering his BB rate.

Again, I don't hate him. Or even dislike him. I don't think he should have ever been the centerpiece in a trade involving Ozuna coming off the year he had, especially when the secondary pieces themselves were a backend starter, a bench outfieldier on an AAA team who cant hit, and a non-prospect.

What? No you haven't even in the slightest. You just keep saying he is out performing his peripherals (but that's not necessarily the case because of the weak contact rates which are not league average and no goalpost is being moved please see post 88 above where he is 16th-20th percentile in hard hit rates depending on how you sort. That is NOT "league average"). Then generalizing things like the Cards trade is bad unless Jazz works out (which is wrong as Sandy alone is going to provide more surplus value) and he's not a 4th SP on a playoff team (which he clearly is if 2019 holds).

The entire argument also doesn't hinge on ANY BB/K improvement. If this is all Sandy is, he's a really solid # 4 SP and amazing value at club controlled prices. The BB/K is a discussion about MASSIVE IMPROVEMENT where if he starts whiffing 8+ guys per 9 and walking even .5 guys less per 9, he's going to be an absofuckinglutely monster with those contact rates. That like a top 20 SP monster if he does that. I don't know if he can do that, but my position is - shouldn't we find out if a 23 year old can improve? I don't know if he'll do this, but there is no reason to cast him to the bullpen anytime soon.

Lastly, I hope every trade the Marlins do is as lopsided as the Ozuna trade. If Sandy is a 2 WAR ho-hum # 4 SP next 5 years, Sierra, Castano, and Jazz do nothing, the Marlins probably will have probably received $85+ million in surplus value and as mentioned above, the Cardinals best case scenario is probably $35+ million. This is going to be an absolute blowout.

[Todd]

"Depending on how you sort"=I had to selectively fudge things to fit my narrative. And that post was about exit velocity, not hard hit rate, where he was middle of the pack.

Which again, is to be expected as...and one more time...his only pitch is a sinker. His flat 4 seamer and poor excuse for breaking pitches would be teed off on.

And the peripherals he overperformed were not just his K or BB numbers which are shit. He also outperformed his FIP and xFIP and not by a little bit. By a lot.

And your entire argument rests on his hard hit rate. I don't really find that all compelling.

You might be right. I might be right. We might both be wrong. Sure give him a chance. I don't really care.