2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[fish16]

Not surprisingly, the Marlins are declining Castro's $16 milllion option according to Jon Heyman. Barry Jackson says that there might be some interest in bringing him back on a deal at less money, but that Castro isn't a priority for the team early in free agency.

Also, on his latest podcast, Craig Mish says that he's heard that they plan on spending money this offseason. He said that they aren't looking at big, long-term deals, but certainly more than last year's Granderson/Walker type deals. He says they'll be looking for 1-2 year deals in the $8-10 million range. He mentioned they'll be looking for bullpen help but may have to look for trades to get bats since there isn't too much available on the free agent market. He gave Kole Calhoun as an example of a bat that could be available.

thank god. Please dont bring him back.

[lou]

Agreed.

Barry Jackson has a new column and it seems like the Marlins know they need to improve the MLB product.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/s...236878178.html



I guess we will see how the market plays out.

Agreed.

Barry Jackson has a new column and it seems like the Marlins know they need to improve the MLB product.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/s...236878178.html

I guess we will see how the market plays out.

Not sure how they expect to get 2 bats and 2 veteran relievers with this:

Alfaro, Wallach (2)
Cooper, L. Diaz (2)
I. Diaz, Berti (2)
Rojas, Jazz (2)
Anderson (1)
Sierra, Brinson, Monte (3)
Ramirez, Dean, J. Sanchez (3)
=15

Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, Yamamoto, Sixto, E. Cabrera, Neidert, Dugger (9)
Steckenrider, Stanek, Brice, Brigham, E. Hernandez, Guzman (6)
Garcia, Conley, Quijada, Castano (4)
=19

Holloway, Mejia, W. Stewart (3 - likely non 2020 players)
=3

Total=37

Doesn't include Rule V, or protecting any of Milbrath/Lee/Tayron/etc.

I guess they can shed Wallach for now and add a catcher opening day, dump one of Brinson/Ramirez/Dean, and move Conley (or one of the veteran relievers in on a MiLB deal), and that gives them enough spots to make moves.

- - - - - - - - - -

thank god. Please dont bring him back.

Castro had a 2.5 WAR from July 4th-end of season. 323 PA, sustainable .322 BABIP. The guys in front of him are Acuna, Meadows, Harper, Albies, and Arenado.

Sure he was terrible before that, but he changed his swing. I'm not sure this is the right decision. They won't find that upside in free agency.

This is saving money.

[fauowls44]

Not sure how they expect to get 2 bats and 2 veteran relievers with this:

Alfaro, Wallach (2)
Cooper, L. Diaz (2)
I. Diaz, Berti (2)
Rojas, Jazz (2)
Anderson (1)
Sierra, Brinson, Monte (3)
Ramirez, Dean, J. Sanchez (3)
=15

Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, Yamamoto, Sixto, E. Cabrera, Neidert, Dugger (9)
Steckenrider, Stanek, Brice, Brigham, E. Hernandez, Guzman (6)
Garcia, Conley, Quijada, Castano (4)
=19

Holloway, Mejia, W. Stewart (3 - likely non 2020 players)
=3

Total=37

Doesn't include Rule V, or protecting any of Milbrath/Lee/Tayron/etc.

I guess they can shed Wallach for now and add a catcher opening day, dump one of Brinson/Ramirez/Dean, and move Conley (or one of the veteran relievers in on a MiLB deal), and that gives them enough spots to make moves.

- - - - - - - - - -



Castro had a 2.5 WAR from July 4th-end of season. 323 PA, sustainable .322 BABIP. The guys in front of him are Acuna, Meadows, Harper, Albies, and Arenado.

Sure he was terrible before that, but he changed his swing. I'm not sure this is the right decision. They won't find that upside in free agency.

This is saving money.

I can see both sides of the Castro thing. He's still a productive player, but I don't think I would want to pay him $16 million either. Given the free agent market, you could argue that they may be better off biting the bullet for one year and kept him. At the same time, even if they don't sign any bats, Sanchez and Harrison will likely be up at some point this season, meaning Anderson goes to 3rd and then you are paying Castro $16 million to be a utility player? That would not be ideal.

My guess is that they let the free agent/trade market play out and then circle back to Starlin if they can't find any other starting caliber bats.

[lou]

I can see both sides of the Castro thing. He's still a productive player, but I don't think I would want to pay him $16 million either. Given the free agent market, you could argue that they may be better off biting the bullet for one year and kept him. At the same time, even if they don't sign any bats, Sanchez and Harrison will likely be up at some point this season, meaning Anderson goes to 3rd and then you are paying Castro $16 million to be a utility player? That would not be ideal.

My guess is that they let the free agent/trade market play out and then circle back to Starlin if they can't find any other starting caliber bats.

$16 is highish, I agree there. But I am thinking along the lines of, a solid 1 year veteran starter is probably half that, and it's probably someone like Jay Bruce of the last few years who has limited upside.

Castro is in his prime at 30 and gunning for his last chance at a FA contract. If he plays 3/4ths as good as July 4th - end of season, he would be a very highly desirable trade chip. Just like Castellanos this year. I think I would take that risk and assume you can get out from the salary in July. The dude was legitimately amazing and a top 30-50 overall position player for half the season. It was a 5 WAR pace which is ludicrous. I know the first half was equally as incredible on the bad scale, but he tweaked his swing and I think there might be some real growth. Just saying, you'd be paying a couple extra bucks to potentially get a package at the deadline and even one mediocre reliever or bench player in return at a minimum salary with years of control makes it a huge win. Let alone if you get something more.

I don't think position redundancy would be an issue. The chances all of Lewin, Isan, Sanchez, and Monte hold down starting spots is low, and I don't think any of us have much faith in Cooper, Berti, Sierra, Dean, Ramirez, and Brinson being anything more than backups (even if those first 3 might be really good backups). Que Lee jumping in with Berti is the 2nd best position player in the organization and what I typed is blasphemy.

[fauowls44]

$16 is highish, I agree there. But I am thinking along the lines of, a solid 1 year veteran starter is probably half that, and it's probably someone like Jay Bruce of the last few years who has limited upside.

Castro is in his prime at 30 and gunning for his last chance at a FA contract. If he plays 3/4ths as good as July 4th - end of season, he would be a very highly desirable trade chip. Just like Castellanos this year. I think I would take that risk and assume you can get out from the salary in July. The dude was legitimately amazing and a top 30-50 overall position player for half the season. It was a 5 WAR pace which is ludicrous. I know the first half was equally as incredible on the bad scale, but he tweaked his swing and I think there might be some real growth. Just saying, you'd be paying a couple extra bucks to potentially get a package at the deadline and even one mediocre reliever or bench player in return at a minimum salary with years of control makes it a huge win. Let alone if you get something more.

I don't think position redundancy would be an issue. The chances all of Lewin, Isan, Sanchez, and Monte hold down starting spots is low, and I don't think any of us have much faith in Cooper, Berti, Sierra, Dean, Ramirez, and Brinson being anything more than backups (even if those first 3 might be really good backups). Que Lee jumping in with Berti is the 2nd best position player in the organization and what I typed is blasphemy.

Can't argue with any of that. We will just have to see what they do to replace him in the lineup.

[rmc523]

So it’s flimsy veterans and 98 losses to basically tank another year.

It makes sense for baseball reasons as a year of evaluation of Lewin//Isan/jazz/Bleday/Monte/Sanchez/SP makes sense, but dear god what’s the plan for building fan confidence and negotiating the TV deal. Naming rights?

I still think the owe it to everyone to do better

I'm totally with you. Though they can't throw money around just to spend.

[Lee Stone]

The missing RH bat could've/should've been JD Davis, who was available for a song last offseason. I'd look for a similar player, one who is blocked by a solid roster like Davis was in Houston.

Of more consequence, there are absolutely no majors-ready left handed bats on the roster. That's why I project Brad Miller (ss, 2b, 1b) as the most obvious free agent target within the Marlins budget. Another might be Corey Dickerson, who is coming off an injury-ruined season. I'm also still liking switch hitting C Heineman as competition for Alfaro.

[Nick]

The missing RH bat could've/should've been JD Davis, who was available for a song last offseason. I'd look for a similar player, one who is blocked by a solid roster like Davis was in Houston.

Of more consequence, there are absolutely no majors-ready left handed bats on the roster. That's why I project Brad Miller (ss, 2b, 1b) as the most obvious free agent target within the Marlins budget. Another might be Corey Dickerson, who is coming off an injury-ruined season. I'm also still liking switch hitting C Heineman as competition for Alfaro.

c'mon dude.

- - - - - - - - - -

Isan Diaz, not major-league ready with his over 500 ABs of .900 OPS hitting at AAA. We should just give up on him after 2 sub-par months to start his major league career. Let's ignore the fact that he has a track record of starting slow at new levels before eventually mashing.

[Namaste]

Not bringing Castro back has some serious LolMarlins potential if he goes someplace else and puts up a 4 or 5 WAR.

[Nick]

I don't buy that Castro has all of a sudden turned into a star player halfway into his 10th season in the majors. So I would've been against paying him $16 million next year. If they had gotten him to agree to a 3-year/$8 million per deal, though I would've been for it.

[Lee Stone]

c'mon dude.

- - - - - - - - - -

Isan Diaz, not major-league ready with his over 500 ABs of .900 OPS hitting at AAA. We should just give up on him after 2 sub-par months to start his major league career. Let's ignore the fact that he has a track record of starting slow at new levels before eventually mashing.

Lest we forget, Austin Dean, Tyler Heineman and even Eddy Alvarez had higher OPS than Diaz at New Orleans. Heck, Lewis Brinson hit pretty much as well as Diaz at NO.

[fish16]

Lest we forget, Austin Dean, Tyler Heineman and even Eddy Alvarez had higher OPS than Diaz at New Orleans. Heck, Lewis Brinson hit pretty much as well as Diaz at NO.

Haven’t really posted in a while, but I’m glad to see you still have no concept of age relative to the level a player is at. Also, no, Diaz didn’t hit just about the same as brinson, he was significantly better

[Nick]

Lest we forget, Austin Dean, Tyler Heineman and even Eddy Alvarez had higher OPS than Diaz at New Orleans. Heck, Lewis Brinson hit pretty much as well as Diaz.

No he didn't. Straight up, Diaz OPS was 100 points better. Plus Brinson had more Ks in AAA than Diaz in about 100 less ABs. Brinson's peripherals were terrible, despite his decent OPS. (That was still 100 points lower than Diaz's)

I know this will never matter to you, but I'll say it again because it matters no matter how much you believe it doesn't, Diaz was 23-years old last year, the other 3 guys you mentioned ages range from 26-29. A 23-year old is going to improve more than a 27-year old. It's just the way the game works, been that way since baseball has existed. Also, all 3 of those guys had significantly fewer ABs than Diaz, I know that doesn't matter to you because no matter the sample size a player is just going to maintain their stats because that's the way it works.

[Lee Stone]

c'mon dude.

- - - - - - - - - -

Isan Diaz, not major-league ready with his over 500 ABs of .900 OPS hitting at AAA. We should just give up on him after 2 sub-par months to start his major league career. Let's ignore the fact that he has a track record of starting slow at new levels before eventually mashing.

We certainly shouldn't ignore him. We should hope he improves at AAA at the start of next season. Based on last year's results at the ML level, there just isn't any way to pencil Isan into next year's opening day lineup.

[Todd]

More worried about Diaz's defense than his bat. His glove is horrid.