2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[Lee Stone]

Before anyone says anything.

There are several differences between Alcantara and Teheran, but there's one big one. What is it Lee?

Salary? Age differential? Whatever. Is Alcantara actually better because you don't have to pay him? My point is that if you're loving Alcantara and his less than 2/1 K/W ratio, you can double down on Teheran right now and sign him for what, maybe $12M for two years? Then you have two Number Ones!

[Nick]

$12 million a year? Age differential? Whatever. Is Alcantara actually better because you don't have to pay him?

2nd try got it, the player that is 5 years younger is still improving, he took a huge step last year, we need to see another big one this year. 29-year old Julio Teheran is what he is.

Alcantara is probably the worst #1 in the MLB right now. There's no doubt about that, but he was still a solid major league starter last year, and if he continues his upward trajectory a chance to be a whole lot more.

[Lee Stone]

2nd try got it, the player that is 5 years younger is still improving, he took a huge step last year, we need to see another big one this year. 29-year old Julio Teheran is what he is.

Alcantara is probably the worst #1 in the MLB right now. There's no doubt about that, but he was still a solid major league starter last year, and if he continues his upward trajectory a chance to be a whole lot more.

Based on WHIP, which you may agree or disagree is the most accurate measure of overall effectiveness, Alcantara is Miami's #5 starter behind Lopez, Smith, Yamamoto, and Elieser Hernandez. Zac Gallen was much more effective than Alcantara last year as well.

I understand that many fans are on the Alcantara bandwagon ... Hey, he was an All Star, right??

[Nick]

WHIP is not the most accurate measure of overall effectiveness btw.

[Lee Stone]

WHIP is not the most accurate measure of overall effectiveness btw.

Okay, what stat would you choose? For me, a pitcher's WHIP is a hitter's OPS ... well, maybe more OBP.

[Nick]

Okay, what stat would you choose? For me, a pitcher's WHIP is a hitter's OPS ... well, maybe more OBP.

I don't think there is one. Maybe some others on the board would say FIP, but I'm too lazy to find out what all goes into FIP, lol. You gotta look at everything. There's a lot of luck wrapped up in that H part of WHIP, and also all H's aren't created equal.

[fish16]

Pretty sure literally no one is advocating a one for one Caleb for Rosario trade.

If you’re trading Caleb for Rosario, any prospects involved will be negligible at best. It would essentially be a Rosario for smith trade, and that makes 0 sense when you can just sign a guy, which is almost assuredly what they will end up doing when the dust settles, whether it’s Puig, Calhoun, Dickerson, or any of the other guys. If they are looking for a stop gap, which is exactly what Rosario would be, it makes 0 sense to trade an asset for one rather than just sign one

[Lee Stone]

I don't think there is one. Maybe some others on the board would say FIP, but I'm too lazy to find out what all goes into FIP, lol. You gotta look at everything. There's a lot of luck wrapped up in that H part of WHIP, and also all H's aren't created equal.

Attached is leaderboard for Strikeout/BB ratio over pitcher careers. That seems to have a lot of face validity in matching up with most valued pitchers. Maybe I would just go with that.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...s_career.shtml

[fish16]

Attached is leaderboard for Strikeout/BB ratio over pitcher careers. That seems to have a lot of face validity in matching up with most valued pitchers. Maybe I would just go with that.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...s_career.shtml

The best stats to look at for pitchers in my opinion is era/xfip/fip all in the context of each other, k’s per 9, k/bb ratio, I also love whip, and then you have to actually look into the velocity and other more telling features of a pitchers actual repertoire to see how sustainable the numbers are and whether they can be improved upon just on the basis of the stuff they have

[fauowls44]

Interesting. On the podcast, Mish said he hadn't heard about the possibility of the Puig and that he believes that the guy they sign is going to be left handed, but he updated that here:


Craig Mish
@CraigMish
I guess some people ALREADY listened to
@SwingsAndMishes
this morning. �� Update ! - 1. Puig & Mattingly have a good relationship. 2. The interest in Puig is legitimate. 3. They are deeper in talks with others.

[Nick]

1. Puig & Mattingly have a good relationship.

Take that tj's janitor friend.

[lou]

I don't think there is one. Maybe some others on the board would say FIP, but I'm too lazy to find out what all goes into FIP, lol. You gotta look at everything. There's a lot of luck wrapped up in that H part of WHIP, and also all H's aren't created equal.

Yep. A pitcher with an 18 K/9, .50 whip, 0% BB rate, and gives up a HR every other inning is terrible. Gotta look at everything. Guys succeed and fail in different ways.

[Lee Stone]

More on K/W ratio for Marlin organization (last column). S Sanchez leads the way. Trevor Rogers very good too, as are Cabrera and Mejia. Interesting to note that recently traded Easton Lucas had a very, very good ratio ...

https://www.baseball-reference.com/t...HandedStarters

[lou]

Interesting. On the podcast, Mish said he hadn't heard about the possibility of the Puig and that he believes that the guy they sign is going to be left handed, but he updated that here:


Craig Mish
@CraigMish
I guess some people ALREADY listened to
@SwingsAndMishes
this morning. �� Update ! - 1. Puig & Mattingly have a good relationship. 2. The interest in Puig is legitimate. 3. They are deeper in talks with others.

Puig and a left handed bat would be great.

Calhoun is a very good RF (15 innings CF last 2 years). Maybe he (or Villar?) can play CF?

I'd love this team. This is kind of objectively a good lineup? It's probably over 20 WAR.

Alfaro, Wallach
Aguilar, Cooper
Isan
Rojas, Berti
Anderson/Villar
Puig*
Calhoun/Villar, Sierra
Anderson/Calhoun, Ramirez/Dean/Brinson

*Or Castellanos, Ozuna, W. Myers salary dump, etc.

If the CF experiment doesn't work, Monte is coming in July. I'd endure for 3 months

- - - - - - - - - -

More on K/W ratio for Marlin organization (last column). S Sanchez leads the way. Trevor Rogers very good too, as are Cabrera and Mejia. Interesting to note that recently traded Easton Lucas had a very, very good ratio ...

https://www.baseball-reference.com/t...HandedStarters

I sure hope a 22/23 year old in low A ball throws strikes.

Sandy is 1 year older than him, and 5 levels of competition above him BTW

[fish16]

If we’re gonna get a stop gap guy, I think my first option other than maybe Dickerson would probably be puig. He isnt the guy everyone once thought he was but he is a name that resonates and bring some excitement with the Cuban community for whatever that’s worth and he would probably give the highest potential ceiling out of the guys we are looking at, although also maybe the lowest floor in that he really likes to fight people and could cause some issues.

I’ve been saying we should have gone after him a few years ago when he was available for next to nothing 2 years ago.

- - - - - - - - - -

Did anyone see the fairly aggressive comments from Mattingly about cooper yesterday about how he can’t be counted on to be an everyday guy? Granted he hasn’t stayed healthy at all but a lot of that seemed to be bad luck in getting nailed in the hand

- - - - - - - - - -

Interesting. On the podcast, Mish said he hadn't heard about the possibility of the Puig and that he believes that the guy they sign is going to be left handed, but he updated that here:


Craig Mish
@CraigMish
I guess some people ALREADY listened to
@SwingsAndMishes
this morning. �� Update ! - 1. Puig & Mattingly have a good relationship. 2. The interest in Puig is legitimate. 3. They are deeper in talks with others.

The left handed preferred thing would seem to jive with every single thing we have heard this offseason as well as who it is that they are reported to be interested in. I’d like to see more confirmation on the puig/mattingly thing though because I thought that seemed to be widely reported not only by the janitor but also by others in the media as well