2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[Nick]

And to be clear, a good organization doesn't rush prospects whether they have Austin Dean out there or Yasiel Puig. Winning 70 games instead of 60 games will not matter one iota to the South Florida fan base. Things will turn around when we have a playoff contender. Signing somebody to a 1-2 year contract just to bridge the gap to our prospects doesn't improve the timetable to us becoming a playoff contender at all.

[fish16]

The major point is there is no need to go 4 years on a guy like puig whose market will almost assuredly be no more than 2 years just for the sake of saying we might have signed a long term piece

[Nick]

The major point is there is no need to go 4 years on a guy like puig whose market will almost assuredly be no more than 2 years just for the sake of saying we might have signed a long term piece

I agree on Puig. But I feel differently when it comes to Castellanos and Ozuna, and certain trade candidates.

[rmc523]

I agree on Puig. But I feel differently when it comes to Castellanos and Ozuna, and certain trade candidates.

Throw me in this camp - I don't think Puig is a guy to give a longer term deal, but I'd be ok with a short term one for him, or a longer term for one of the other guys.

[fish16]

And to be clear, a good organization doesn't rush prospects whether they have Austin Dean out there or Yasiel Puig. Winning 70 games instead of 60 games will not matter one iota to the South Florida fan base. Things will turn around when we have a playoff contender. Signing somebody to a 1-2 year contract just to bridge the gap to our prospects doesn't improve the timetable to us becoming a playoff contender at all.

It absolutely can. All of a sudden the prospects develop a year sooner than expected and sixto becomes a very good number 2/3 right away and maybe more combined with sandy and smith and Lopez staying healthy, etc, and if you’re in somewhat contention by the all star break or something rather than trade for an outfielder to replace Austin dean who is pretty clearly a 4th outfielder/aaaa guy to me, you already have an impact middle of the order bat who might be able to make you more competitive right away. That would save you from trading a prospect for a helpful bat down the line in case the young guys help us turn the corner a year faster than expected.

All I’m saying is not every move has to be with the thought process that we will only start to turn a corner in 2022 and not a second sooner. You can sign quality major league talent for two years to help complement the prospects as they begin to filter to the majors

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You’re also allowed to surround your upcoming prospects with quality bats rather than retread veterans and clear long term backups/aaaa players. What’s more helpful to a prospect like Diaz’s long term improvement, being surrounded by major league talent throughout the lineup like puig or guys like Sierra, Berti if he inevitably regresses, Curtis granderson, etc. you can field a major league roster even though your prime competing windows might not be for another year or two

[Nick]

It absolutely can. All of a sudden the prospects develop a year sooner than expected and sixto becomes a very good number 2/3 right away and maybe more combined with sandy and smith and Lopez staying healthy, etc, and if you’re in somewhat contention by the all star break or something rather than trade for an outfielder to replace Austin dean who is pretty clearly a 4th outfielder/aaaa guy to me, you already have an impact middle of the order bat who might be able to make you more competitive right away. That would save you from trading a prospect for a helpful bat down the line in case the young guys help us turn the corner a year faster than expected.

All I’m saying is not every move has to be with the thought process that we will only start to turn a corner in 2022 and not a second sooner. You can sign quality major league talent for two years to help complement the prospects as they begin to filter to the majors

Wouldn't it be better though, if you have the money, and if we are operating like a real MLB organization we should, to sign or trade for a caliber of player that can be that middle of the order bat that allows you not to rush prospects, but will also be here when those prospects are actually ready? Everything works out, maybe you don't have a spot for one of those OF prospects, all of a sudden you have a tremendous trade piece to help fill another need during a pennant run. Signing some above average bat to fill a 1 or 2 non-competing window is a half-measure, I want to see them get the best players they can, and if that player wants a 3-4 year contract we should have the means to evaluate whether we think they'll still be a quality player by then. You can never know for sure, but we can't be scared to give players that kind of commitment, we just have to be smart about it.

[fish16]

Wouldn't it be better though, if you have the money, and if we are operating like a real MLB organization we should, to sign or trade for a caliber of player that can be that middle of the order bat that allows you not to rush prospects, but will also be here when those prospects are actually ready? Everything works out, maybe you don't have a spot for one of those OF prospects, all of a sudden you have a tremendous trade piece to help fill another need during a pennant run. Signing some above average bat to fill a 1 or 2 non-competing window is a half-measure, I want to see them get the best players they can, and if that player wants a 3-4 year contract we should have the means to evaluate whether we think they'll still be a quality player by then. You can never know for sure, but we can't be scared to give players that kind of commitment, we just have to be smart about it.

That’s a possibility too, I’d be cool with that. Who is that player though and what do we hVe to give up to get him.

[Nick]

That’s a possibility too, I’d be cool with that. Who is that player though and what do we hVe to give up to get him.

I think Castellanos and Ozuna fit that bill. I think if those guys are your best player on your team, you aren't very good, but I feel pretty good about both those guys being in the middle of a major league lineup 3 or 4 years from now. Let me put it this way, if Sanchez and Bleday turn into hitters the quality of Castellanos and Ozuna, we're pretty fucking happy, right?

My ultimate preference would be to somehow get a trade done with Chicago for Bryant or Rizzo, though. Eat that Heyward contract. Extend those guys out, and build your team.

Here's a question, which contract would you rather eat? Jason Heyward or Yu Darvish?

[fish16]

I saw Ozuna was down to reds and braces so he’s out. Pretty sure he’s got the draft pick attached anyways. Castellanos for the right price and front loaded I’d be fine with

[rmc523]

Craig Mish

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1m1 minute ago
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At the Winter Meetings, a source indicates the Twins & Marlins discussed a potential deal that would send Miami SP Elieser Hernandez to Minnesota for OF Jake Cave.

Craig Mish

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Miami, in need of OF could use Cave in CF. Cave came up in NYY system & MIA Coach Rowson knows Cave from MIN. Marlins have depth at SP but they really like Hernandez & unlike in years past are now holding firm on SP cost. Hernandez was a Rule 5 pick. Developed into solid SP.

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Craig Mish

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26m26 minutes ago
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Marlins Free Agent OF Signing

(Entertainment Purposes Only)

Kole Calhoun 30%
Yasiel Puig 25%
Corey Dickerson 20%
Avisail Garcia 15%
Mystery Outfielder 10%

This is the way.

[fish16]

I think I’d like cave for elieser. And I like elieser a potential as a rp. Given our soon to be surplus of potential bullpen arms and caves pretty decent success at the major league level I could be cool with that move

[Nick]

What do we know about Cave's defensive ability? Do people think he sticks in CF long term? If so, I'd definitely do that deal.

[fish16]

What do we know about Cave's defensive ability? Do people think he sticks in CF long term? If so, I'd definitely do that deal.

Didn’t even think of that and ya that would be pretty important. We seem to have a lot of corner outfielders but not much in centerfield

[lou]

That’s not spending money for the sake of spending money, it’s spending money on a stop gap with a very high ceiling who will allow you not to have to rush your prospects while giving you quality production instead of retread guys who we have seen over the years. A two year guy is perfect, especially a high ceiling guy like puig who can give you .800 ops type production for a few years until we can bring up kids like Sanchez, bleday, misner, monte, victor vixrle, Scott, etc. the complete wrong move for an outfielder would be trying to force someone to be a long term piece even though other than castellanos that guy isn’t really out there.

We likely have 3 outfielders already in the system for those years. If we re evaluate after this year and a bunch of guys have down years you can always look for a long term piece next year, but there is no shame in fielding a competitive roster the next two years and signing quality major league talent in the hopes that the prospects develop quicker than anticipated. That’s not spending money for the sake of spending money. Spending money for the sake of spending money would be giving a puig a 4 year deal despite the fact that his market will be two years at the most just to say that we signed a long term piece for the outfield even though we might be able to put together a great long term outfield by as soon as the middle of 2021 with bleday sanchez and monte, all for the league minimum.

It's WAY TO MUCH MONEY for a stop gap unless the idea is he's going to be awesome and you can trade him for prospects. Aguilar is a stop gap. He's a three year guy (likely cheaper than 1 year of Puig). Rojas is a stop gap (two years cheaper than 1 of Puig). Puig at $10+ a year in free agency is not a stop gap.

I'm just going to keep saying it until you get it - they need a stud, right handed, middle of the order hitter longterm - and the only argument against that is, you think Monte will be a star. So basically, we all agree - they need a stud, right handed, middle of the order hitter. Puig isn't necessarily that guy, but he could be as there is real upside and if the price is right, I'll take that gamble with a deal half the value of Ozuna/Castellanos. As mentioned before, they also need to STAGGER their longterm contracts and securing a guy now, for a cheaper 2022, is a REAL GOOD IDEA so you can maximize a contending window. And then when he's off the books, you can pay for arbitration raises and/or sign another similar guy payroll wise. They shouldn't be positioning themselves to give out multiple longterm deals at the same time.

Imagine Puig costing $5 million bucks in 2022 because you paid him more in 20/21. That's how you contend. They can do that.

Really optimistic 3 virtual 1st year players are a successful outfield, even if good prospects.

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All I’m saying is not every move has to be with the thought process that we will only start to turn a corner in 2022 and not a second sooner. You can sign quality major league talent for two years to help complement the prospects as they begin to filter to the majors

You're right, that's what Villar and Aguilar are for. If you want to just keep dicking around, sign 2-3 more veterans for $2-3 million each.

I'm playing to win. Ozuna/Castellanos, or a smart Puig deal to create a cheap year in 2022, or eating Myers for prospects for later use, are playing to win.

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I saw Ozuna was down to reds and braces so he’s out. Pretty sure he’s got the draft pick attached anyways. Castellanos for the right price and front loaded I’d be fine with

We finally got there

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What do we know about Cave's defensive ability? Do people think he sticks in CF long term? If so, I'd definitely do that deal.

He has pretty good in 18, not good in 19. Not sure if he was hurt. He can probably handle a good enough CF as a backup.

I'd take Cave. Not because I think they need another lefty outfielder, but he's probably better than Hernandez. Cave has a career .821 RHP split.

[Nick]

Yeah Cave is the kind of guy that should be bridging the gap to our prospects. Let him get a ton of playing time the next couple years then he settles into 4th OF/top pinch-hitter role