2019-2020 Offseason Discussion

[Nick]

I have a very hard time believing he turns down 10/$305, the 4th largest contract in baseball history, more then Machado, and that includes 2 arbitration years where Machado included none so he's really blowing it out of the water. If anything, they'd need to go to 11/$331 and then he becomes 2nd highest contract over Bryce. With an opt out in 5 years.

Who is syaing no, and the Marlins have a lot of talent on paper

My point is, why not offer that deal to him as you're making the trade? Is there a reason he would turn that offer down now, but then accept it a year later? I can't think of a reason why he would.

[fauowls44]

The Tigers signed Schoop and CJ Chron to 1 year deals today. So I guess not everyone is waiting for contenders to make offers. Maybe it’s a sign the market is shifting.

[lou]

My point is, why not offer that deal to him as you're making the trade? Is there a reason he would turn that offer down now, but then accept it a year later? I can't think of a reason why he would.

I think you do it the second you have his rights, during the process, and everyday with his agent until you work it out. It's overwhelming him with love, affection, and most importantly - guaranteed cash, no trade clause, and opt out

[sports24/7]

I don’t think the Marlins are ever going to give out a $300M contract again. I think we’re spinning out wheels talking about this.

[lou]

I don’t think the Marlins are ever going to give out a $300M contract again. I think we’re spinning out wheels talking about this.

Probably, but TJ just mentioned Lindor. You just make it work for those guys and they shouldn't feel bad about going for broke with someone like that. He's way better than Stanton. He's 6th in WAR last 4 years all players (Trout, Mookie, Scherzer, sigh Yelich, Rendon). He's 26.

If you're going to "BUILD" he's easily a top 7 player to do it with. I'm looking up and down the majors, the only other players I would put in "tier 1" are Acuna, R. Devers, Betts, Boegarts, Yelich, and of course Trout because he's just insane. No offense to other dudes like Arenado, Chapman, Bellinger, and Ketel, but they are either more expensive for later FA years and could have some hitting drops even if they are still awesome hitting a few less bombs.

Blow it all out if you can get him and figure out later how to sign him. They got 2 years to do that. I don't think it's likely, but I'm going big for Lindor if I was calling shots. He's exactly what they need and they have so much young talent with what's coming up in the minors, they can easily afford him and run sub $100 payrolls for awhile.

[sports24/7]

Probably, but TJ just mentioned Lindor. You just make it work for those guys and they shouldn't feel bad about going for broke with someone like that. He's way better than Stanton. He's 6th in WAR last 4 years all players (Trout, Mookie, Scherzer, sigh Yelich, Rendon). He's 26.

If you're going to "BUILD" he's easily a top 7 player to do it with. I'm looking up and down the majors, the only other players I would put in "tier 1" are Acuna, R. Devers, Betts, Boegarts, Yelich, and of course Trout because he's just insane. No offense to other dudes like Arenado, Chapman, Bellinger, and Ketel, but they are either more expensive for later FA years and could have some hitting drops even if they are still awesome hitting a few less bombs.

Blow it all out if you can get him and figure out later how to sign him. They got 2 years to do that. I don't think it's likely, but I'm going big for Lindor if I was calling shots. He's exactly what they need and they have so much young talent with what's coming up in the minors, they can easily afford him and run sub $100 payrolls for awhile.

Oh, I agree completely, and I hope I’m wrong. I just don’t think that’s ever going to be their strategy.

[tjfla]

Marlins would like Lindor or Betts but they aren't paying the prospect cost for them.

Cleveland wants Senzel and more from Cincy and Top guys from SD
Boston wants Top stuff for Betts

If they lower prices Miami would jump in extension or NOT,if 1 of them say(Just example) Devers,Jerar,SP and other prospect Miami would make the deal and then try to figure out how to get them to stay

Remember Miami COULD have to add 7-10 guys to 40 man next year so u could see a 4 for 1 offer. Clear some of those guys and get a cornerstone

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The Tigers signed Schoop and CJ Chron to 1 year deals today. So I guess not everyone is waiting for contenders to make offers. Maybe it’s a sign the market is shifting.

These guys did the same LY they just wanna play/get AB's and hope for a multiyear deal

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The thing about FA signings is they don't wanna spend tons of cash on a guy only to discover they already have the guy in the system. This is the balancing act Denbo is trying to do

Why sign a power LHB 1B Lewin Diaz can handle it?
Why sign a LH OF for more than 2 years if Jesus and Bleday are ready by then?
Why sign a SS if Jazz is there?
Why sign a SP for longer than 2 years if Sixto,Cabrera,Garrett,Neidert,#3 pick are ready to go?

They wanna see these guys in action before they start handing out 4 yr/60 million dollar deals. They are willing to go 2 yrs on all FA but thats it. Not saying Jazz would stop them from signing Lindor or Monte would stop them from signing Betts talking more about mid tier signings like Calhoun for 2 years then when Jesus or Bleday ready u trade him OR 2/18 for a SP then when young guys ready u trade them

[fish16]

Ya I’m sure the Indians and Red Sox are excited to Jump all over a deal giving away superstars for a package of prospects led by devers and jerar

[tjfla]

Ya I’m sure the Indians and Red Sox are excited to Jump all over a deal giving away superstars for a package of prospects led by devers and jerar

Why do u think we arent mentioned in talks? But would be excited to get that instead of a Rd 2 pick

[lou]

The thing about FA signings is they don't wanna spend tons of cash on a guy only to discover they already have the guy in the system. This is the balancing act Denbo is trying to do

Why sign a power LHB 1B Lewin Diaz can handle it?
Why sign a LH OF for more than 2 years if Jesus and Bleday are ready by then?
Why sign a SS if Jazz is there?
Why sign a SP for longer than 2 years if Sixto,Cabrera,Garrett,Neidert,#3 pick are ready to go?

They wanna see these guys in action before they start handing out 4 yr/60 million dollar deals. They are willing to go 2 yrs on all FA but thats it. Not saying Jazz would stop them from signing Lindor or Monte would stop them from signing Betts talking more about mid tier signings like Calhoun for 2 years then when Jesus or Bleday ready u trade him OR 2/18 for a SP then when young guys ready u trade them

This is irrelevant in 3 scenarios:

1 - Superstars (Lindor, Betts, etc.) - You make room for them no matter what you have
2 - A longterm right handed bat at 3B/OF (Castellanos, Ozuna) - They have Anderson, Monte, Alfaro, Aguilar, and Cooper longterm. They need a a middle of the order right hander to match with Lewin, Jazz, Isan, Bleday, and Sanchez.
3 - Elite C or CF (None available in free agency) - Alfaro is solid enough, and Monte is a solid prospect, but those guys shouldn't block anyone who is better. You can move them if needed.

[sports24/7]

Mish updated his percentages with Puig now in the lead:

Puig 35%
Calhoun 30%
Dickerson 20%
Mystery OF 15%

For those scoring at home, that's a big jump for Puig, Calhoun stays the same, and Dickerson and Mystery OF (still curious who this is) both drop. Obviously his percentages are to be somewhat taken with a grain of salt, but I like the idea of Puig gaining momentum. If the Marlins aren't going to make a big signing or trade, he just makes way too much sense. He's a marketing dream for them, will bring entertainment if nothing else during a time when that's a big deal, and he also has enough upside to be a contributor when they get this thing turned around.

[tjfla]

This is irrelevant in 3 scenarios:

1 - Superstars (Lindor, Betts, etc.) - You make room for them no matter what you have
2 - A longterm right handed bat at 3B/OF (Castellanos, Ozuna) - They have Anderson, Monte, Alfaro, Aguilar, and Cooper longterm. They need a a middle of the order right hander to match with Lewin, Jazz, Isan, Bleday, and Sanchez.
3 - Elite C or CF (None available in free agency) - Alfaro is solid enough, and Monte is a solid prospect, but those guys shouldn't block anyone who is better. You can move them if needed.

Not talking about stuff like this. I am talking about Didi for 3 years or Dickerson for longer than 2

They would take a superstar in a second whether or not Jazz is here. If Castellanos could play 3B they would be in love

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Mish updated his percentages with Puig now in the lead:

Puig 35%
Calhoun 30%
Dickerson 20%
Mystery OF 15%

For those scoring at home, that's a big jump for Puig, Calhoun stays the same, and Dickerson and Mystery OF (still curious who this is) both drop. Obviously his percentages are to be somewhat taken with a grain of salt, but I like the idea of Puig gaining momentum. If the Marlins aren't going to make a big signing or trade, he just makes way too much sense. He's a marketing dream for them, will bring entertainment if nothing else during a time when that's a big deal, and he also has enough upside to be a contributor when they get this thing turned around.

Ya Puig is picking up steam. Denbo seems to be open to him/Mattingly is not signed off but reality is he will likely only be manager for this year so his opinion is whatever and Puig's contract demands have dropped

If they do sign Puig they still need a LHB so a Austin Dean/Brinson/Cooper could be DFA or moved to make room

In bigger news it looks like we are close to signing Francisco Cervelli. He would be backup C but don't forget he missed ALOT of time with concussion issues. Good signing since u can DFA Wallach and send him to Wichita and IF Cervelli gets concussion again u just 60 Day him and call Wallach up

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Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Teams that still seek a starter: Twins, Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Phillies, possibly Brewers, Braves. Starters whose names are heard on market: Price, Ray, Boyd, Clevinger, Happ, speculatively Archer, Matz/Stroman, M. Gonzales, Quintana. Should be a wild scramble.

U know who else has SP? MIAMI!!! Caleb,Urena,Elieser all on market

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Cervelli-DFA Wallach
Puig-DFA Moran
LHB
RP

2 40 man spots needed-trade 1 of Conley/Brice/Urena or DFA Dean,see about Cooper to Japan or trade Brinson

I would go trade Urena for non 40 man SP and something else((talked to about 8 teams about him already)/DFA Dean

Marlins plan it looks like

Also we are looking to sign some vet SP to Milb deals. No clue if they make team but few interesting names on list I heard. Most of these guys are hoping to get ML deals or sign with contenders BUT if not we have told them were interested(King Felix was 1)

[fish16]

Why do u think we arent mentioned in talks? But would be excited to get that instead of a Rd 2 pick

Except that’s not the choice. Your premise that they can either get a shitty package like devers jerar + or just settle for a second round pick is absurd. Even absent them agreeing to an extension prior to the trade both teams will still get an enormous prospect haul for them

[lou]

Except that’s not the choice. Your premise that they can either get a shitty package like devers jerar + or just settle for a second round pick is absurd. Even absent them agreeing to an extension prior to the trade both teams will still get an enormous prospect haul for them

Yep. I really think the trade for Lindor would be:

Jazz/Bleday
Cabrera/Neidert/Garret/Rogers
Misner/Nunez/Devers/Scott
Fitterar/Soriano/Mejia/Momka/Vesia/Palacios/Encarnacion
Maybe a more remote throw in or backend MLB reliever (Brice, Quijada)

And if it's Mookie, take out Jazz/Bleday. Think about Mookie leaving. You get back the Misner level prospect with the qualifying offer draft compensation, and the last guy doesn't really matter. It's practically a 1-1 trade with the SP at that point which makes a lot of sense both ways.

Lindor has the second year of control so he garners the elite prospect, plus there is the additional leverage in being able to extend him with that year.

Floating Devers/Jerar is not in the same ballpark and an insult.

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Not talking about stuff like this. I am talking about Didi for 3 years or Dickerson for longer than 2

They would take a superstar in a second whether or not Jazz is here. If Castellanos could play 3B they would be in love

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Ya Puig is picking up steam. Denbo seems to be open to him/Mattingly is not signed off but reality is he will likely only be manager for this year so his opinion is whatever and Puig's contract demands have dropped

If they do sign Puig they still need a LHB so a Austin Dean/Brinson/Cooper could be DFA or moved to make room

In bigger news it looks like we are close to signing Francisco Cervelli. He would be backup C but don't forget he missed ALOT of time with concussion issues. Good signing since u can DFA Wallach and send him to Wichita and IF Cervelli gets concussion again u just 60 Day him and call Wallach up

- - - - - - - - - -

Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Teams that still seek a starter: Twins, Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Phillies, possibly Brewers, Braves. Starters whose names are heard on market: Price, Ray, Boyd, Clevinger, Happ, speculatively Archer, Matz/Stroman, M. Gonzales, Quintana. Should be a wild scramble.

U know who else has SP? MIAMI!!! Caleb,Urena,Elieser all on market

- - - - - - - - - -

Cervelli-DFA Wallach
Puig-DFA Moran
LHB
RP

2 40 man spots needed-trade 1 of Conley/Brice/Urena or DFA Dean,see about Cooper to Japan or trade Brinson

I would go trade Urena for non 40 man SP and something else((talked to about 8 teams about him already)/DFA Dean

Marlins plan it looks like

Also we are looking to sign some vet SP to Milb deals. No clue if they make team but few interesting names on list I heard. Most of these guys are hoping to get ML deals or sign with contenders BUT if not we have told them were interested(King Felix was 1)

I can get behind this.

C - Alfaro, Cervelli (2)
1B - Aguilar, Cooper, L. Diaz (3)
2B - I. Diaz, Berti (2)
SS - Rojas, Jazz (2)
3B - Villar, Anderson (2)
CF - Sierra, Brinson, Monte (3)
OF - Puig, Left Handed OF, Ramirez, Dean, J. Sanchez (5)
=19

SP - Sandy, Caleb, Pablo, Urena, Yamamoto, E. Hernandez, Dugger, Neidert, Sixto, E. Cabrera (10)
RP - Steckenrider, Stanek, Y. Garcia, Brice, Sharp, Brigham, Guzman, (7)
LP - Garcia, Conley, Quijada (3)
Other - Holloway, Mejia (2 - likely non 2020 players)
=22

DFA - Wallach

Total=41

I think you're moving Brice from this. Might as well keep Dean for now. His AAA numbers are fantastic so who knows, but they do need injury replacements for now at a minimum.

I think if Brigham is your 5th RHP, and Hernandez and Dugger are your injury replacements until Neidert/Sixto/Guzman, you're in good shape.

[fish16]

I like Cervelli as a low cost high potential ceiling backup catcher signing. Only thing is his concussion issues could limit him severely but if he’s willing to play then we could find a lot worse backup catcher signings

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Cervelli would hVe more of a coach role according to slater