2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[lou]

I know you disagree but I don’t think they’ll hesitate to run Granderson out there. I’m also not convinced Prado and O’Brien are locks. In fact, rethinking my last post, I have Herrera with a better shot at making it than the possibility Miami keeps both O’Brien and Prado. I think they’d like to move on from Prado, but feel it needs to be handled delicately. That said, it’s only been a season since Granderson played 65 in CF. It’s hard for me to believe they’d just hand Herrera a job.

I actually don't disagree with that, but I view him (and dare I say Rojas) as the in-game 1-2+ inning third level CF options and not something to rely on. Granderson might be able to do it physically, but it's probably going to be really bad out there and there is going to be some excruciating doubles/triples in the gap. But I guess that isn't the end of the world. It's not like the extra game or two you're going to lose matters.

But if I am wrong, and Granderson can competently (reasonably below average) handle CF 1-2 days a week (that's probably 30+ starts plus in game moves, so call it 350+ innings before August), that would be fantastic and really solves the roster problem. They can probably figure this out in March, and I do think they have a list of DFA candidates as there will likely be some options.

They can add two guys to this. You definitely need another OF and then it's really "whoever is going to hit."

Alfaro, Wallach
Walker (O'Brien)
Castro (Rojas)
Riddle, Rojas
Anderson (Walker, Rojas)
Granderson (Walker)
Brinson (Granderson, Rojas)
O'Brien

Cooper can theoretically hit lefties and if they are OK with him as a 1B/LF/RF that makes a lot of sense on the roster. I'm not sure if they want him to get reps in AAA though with all the missed time as he'll be a 3+ day a week player here at best, but he's older so it might be time to just let it rip

So then it's Prado vs Herrera vs Dean vs H. Ramirez vs Guerrero. I'd take the defense with Herrera (as your OF players are basically three 1B with Walker, O'Brien, and Cooper, and old man Granderson who will need to sit against all lefties at minimum) and jettison Prado as there is triple redundancy at 1B if they keep Cooper, but what can you do. Hopefully they make a commitment to the kids here. Let O'Brien, Cooper, Herrera, Ramirez, and Dean rip and see if you identify a longterm backup/platoon player.

TLDR - DFA Prado and it will work itself out

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They did throw Yadiel Rivera out there in CF a couple times last year and he had basically no OF experience.

Yep. I think Rojas is going to log some fleeting innings there for sure. It'll be good for them actually, as they can market as a poor man's Marwin at the deadline where Riddle has ideally taken over the job with a step forward against RHP. Rojas is a really good bench player for a contender.

BTW, Riddle was .248/.304/408 vs RHP in a lot of PA, was abysmal against lefties, and had a .266 BABIP overall. He could be sneaky good with that defense. His defense and upticking to a .750 OPS vs RHP will turn him into a projectable player fast.

Segura had a .756 OPS last year, with a little better defense than Riddle, and had a 3.8 WAR (a lot of PA). Cut that production in half as part of a RHP platoon, and the Marlins are in serious business if they can find a longterm Rojas replacement who can hit lefties and play some defense. That's a floor 2 WAR platoon easy, and could get around 3 quick. Would be tremendous.

Hilariously, you know who plays fantastic defense, can hit a .700 OPS vs lefties, and will be cheap next year - Hechavarria.

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Adding the DH to the NL would probably help with some of it - don't have to make switches and whatnot with pitchers batting. Plus, theoretically it'd mean more offense, which makes games more interesting, even if they remain long.

A 26 man roster and NL DH will radically fix position issues across the sport. Everyone will have an infield and outfield elite defender, and an infield and outfielder stick on the bench. It actually decreases the strategy in having versatile players as everyone will have room for an extra Rojas or Dietrich, but hey who cares?

[tjfla]

Like u have said multiple times-I suspect we are gonna hit up the DFA/guys who don't make the team hard at end of ST. Marisnick/Jankowski are likely gonna be there for the taking(DSL prospect?)

[rmc523]

Hilariously, you know who plays fantastic defense, can hit a .700 OPS vs lefties, and will be cheap next year - Hechavarria.

A 26 man roster and NL DH will radically fix position issues across the sport. Everyone will have an infield and outfield elite defender, and an infield and outfielder stick on the bench. It actually decreases the strategy in having versatile players as everyone will have room for an extra Rojas or Dietrich, but hey who cares?

He signed a minor league deal with a ST invite with the Mets, and will make 3M if he makes the ML team.

Yeah, the DH is coming, and I'm fine with it now - it's time.

[lou]

He signed a minor league deal with a ST invite with the Mets, and will make 3M if he makes the ML team.

Yeah, the DH is coming, and I'm fine with it now - it's time.

Assuming Riddle hits RHP, I think someone like Hech is a next year thing to deploy a R/L platoon. But yea.

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Like u have said multiple times-I suspect we are gonna hit up the DFA/guys who don't make the team hard at end of ST. Marisnick/Jankowski are likely gonna be there for the taking(DSL prospect?)

Marisnick and Kemp would each make 25+ other clubs in the league, so something is going to give there. Here's to Astros spring health.

[Nick]

Do we really want to make strategic decisions easier for managers? Roster management should be hard. Managers are mostly useless at this point anyway, and we're going to take away the little impact they have on the game? I'm for keeping the NL the way it is. Yeah, watching pitchers hit is painful most of the time, but you can't replace the magic of pitchers like Dontrelle and Jose who know what they're doing taking their hacks.

[tjfla]

Do we really want to make strategic decisions easier for managers? Roster management should be hard. Managers are mostly useless at this point anyway, and we're going to take away the little impact they have on the game? I'm for keeping the NL the way it is. Yeah, watching pitchers hit is painful most of the time, but you can't replace the magic of pitchers like Dontrelle and Jose who know what they're doing taking their hacks.

NL DH probably won't happen. 26 Man Roster is tho

[Madman81]

Care to explain the facepalm? My suggestion would change the incentive for teams to keep their guys in the minors for as long as possible while also allowing players to get to free agency before they are 30 and no longer a smart long term investment

It is awful for the sport to have a guy like Vlad jr kept down this long despite everyone knowing he’s ready.

the answer is not a set term for life for how long a player is with a team, disregarding the speed at which a player progresses.

[fish16]

the answer is not a set term for life for how long a player is with a team, disregarding the speed at which a player progresses.

Disagree. It would have to be different depending on whether you were drafted out of high school or college or signed as an ifa but giving them a certain number of years in the organization with no ability to wait and defer free agency will change the incentive structure to make teams stop holding back clearly major league ready prospects. And if you make it so that guys will hit free agency at 27 rather than 30-31 teams will be much more willing to invest big money in free agency

[lou]

Disagree. It would have to be different depending on whether you were drafted out of high school or college or signed as an ifa but giving them a certain number of years in the organization with no ability to wait and defer free agency will change the incentive structure to make teams stop holding back clearly major league ready prospects. And if you make it so that guys will hit free agency at 27 rather than 30-31 teams will be much more willing to invest big money in free agency

But you already have that, because you have to be up in 6 years or you are a free agent, but if they call you up you have 6 years of MLB service time. Yes theoretically, an 18 year old could be under control for 12 years, but half of that time the team has invested substantial resources developing them so they should get that MLB time. Especially catchers and non-American players who literally sometimes come from poverty and need years of strength training to catch up to the college kids.

It's service time changes to prevent gamesmanship with .171 days and avoiding Super 2 status.

It's a restricted free agency in your 2nd/3rd arbitration year so there is incentive to buy out your players or fear of poaching.

It's raising 2nd/3rd year player salaries so teams have an incentive to give Dietrich a MLB job versus someone 75% as good at 1/5th the cost. Cost shouldn't win here, it should be the better person getting the job and leveling the playing field.

[fish16]

I get what you’re saying, but 6 years is a ton of time before you reach free agency. Obviously other sports don’t have a years long minor league process, but the nba rookie deals are only 4 years max and I think it’s similar with a 5th year option in the nfl. If you have to make it just 5 years then that could be an option. There are numerous ways to go about it, but from the players perspective something 100% needs to change to stop making it the smart move for teams to keep guys down for non performance reasons and to enable guys to get to some form of free agency before it no longer is smart to sign them before they are on the downside of their career. As it currently stands just about the only guys who make it to free agency before the end of their primes are phenoms who get to the bigs ridiculously early like harper, Soto, Machado, etc.

And I understand why teams are gonna be super hesitant to agree to any changes like this because this could make it so much harder to win in the margins for cheap like teams have figured out how to do very well now. So in my opinion both sides have great arguments as to why we should keep the current system or change it at all, although I’ll always side on the side of players. And that’s why I see no chance that there isn’t some sort of work stoppage unless one side completely caves

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But you already have that, because you have to be up in 6 years or you are a free agent, but if they call you up you have 6 years of MLB service time. Yes theoretically, an 18 year old could be under control for 12 years, but half of that time the team has invested substantial resources developing them so they should get that MLB time. Especially catchers and non-American players who literally sometimes come from poverty and need years of strength training to catch up to the college kids.

It's service time changes to prevent gamesmanship with .171 days and avoiding Super 2 status.

It's a restricted free agency in your 2nd/3rd arbitration year so there is incentive to buy out your players or fear of poaching.

It's raising 2nd/3rd year player salaries so teams have an incentive to give Dietrich a MLB job versus someone 75% as good at 1/5th the cost. Cost shouldn't win here, it should be the better person getting the job and leveling the playing field.

The Dietrich type of mid level guy is the type of player the mlbpa needs to be focusing on. He isn’t a world beater but that dude should not be settling for a minor league deal. That middle class of player gets kind of screwed in the way this current system works. Cost always should play some sort of role in any professional sport so teams are 100% in the right for operating the way they are, but these are guys who should not have to settle for minor league deals and it’s happening unbelievably often the last few years for established veterans. The first few years of team control can just be such a ridiculous value for the cost

[lou]

The Dietrich type of mid level guy is the type of player the mlbpa needs to be focusing on. He isn’t a world beater but that dude should not be settling for a minor league deal. That middle class of player gets kind of screwed in the way this current system works. Cost always should play some sort of role in any professional sport so teams are 100% in the right for operating the way they are, but these are guys who should not have to settle for minor league deals and it’s happening unbelievably often the last few years for established veterans. The first few years of team control can just be such a ridiculous value for the cost

Yes, it's why - and the union will love this - BIG raises in 2nd year of service time. Let's say double the minimum. It'll make a real difference as then a 2nd year player can't be retained at 1/4th of Dietrich's salary.

Hell, just move arbitration to years 3 and 4, restricted free agency or a third arbitration year to 5, and you can franchise/transition tag a guy thereafter like football. Keep making it punitive - Kirk Cousins - so eventually the franchise tags just stop because no one can afford it. Borrow from all the sports and figure out what works. Place a heavy incentive to sign your guys in years 3-4-5 if they are good. I mean, how many guys who aren't stars even get to the final arbitration year? I would assume most burn out like Dietrich being DFA'd, no way Straily gets held onto next year, and other guys, like Rojas, or reasonable.

Realmuto is a great test case for this. That guy should be making so much more and the union should be pissed.

The counter-balance here is the clubs will freak out with all of this as those are big across the board raises. They'll need something. I don't know what that is. But this is fixable. I don't see a strike coming. Sports are evolving and they'll tweak it. There is too much money to be lost, and baseball isn't exactly growing popularity right now.

[fish16]

I like the minimum for year 1, not arbitration but a step up in salary to like 1.5 or name whatever number you want in year 2, arbitration in 3, 4, and 5 with free agency after 5 instead of 6. Also change the service e time calculations to stop the way it currently operates where its smart to keep players down

[lou]

Bunch of stuff here - https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/s...226426810.html

-Closer by committee with Romo, Steck, and Conley
-Questions about O'Brien in OF and not at 1B

And this:

Of Rogers, prospectslive.com said: “There is some projection remaining on his frame, and you have to hope that with it comes some fastball velocity because sitting 93-95 rather than 90-92 will easily elevate Rogers into becoming the best pitcher in the organization…. Rogers has to be one of the most physically imposing lefties in the minors thanks to his gargantuan 6-foot-6 frame.”…….. One scout said...... of Rogers: “His upside is Matt Thornton. To me, he’s a bullpen guy. Maybe he could be a No. 5 [starter]. I saw him last year; he was throwing 88-92 and struggled to throw the ball over the plate.”

Talk about opposites there

[tjfla]

Bunch of stuff here - https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/s...226426810.html

-Closer by committee with Romo, Steck, and Conley
-Questions about O'Brien in OF and not at 1B

And this:

Of Rogers, prospectslive.com said: “There is some projection remaining on his frame, and you have to hope that with it comes some fastball velocity because sitting 93-95 rather than 90-92 will easily elevate Rogers into becoming the best pitcher in the organization…. Rogers has to be one of the most physically imposing lefties in the minors thanks to his gargantuan 6-foot-6 frame.”…….. One scout said...... of Rogers: “His upside is Matt Thornton. To me, he’s a bullpen guy. Maybe he could be a No. 5 [starter]. I saw him last year; he was throwing 88-92 and struggled to throw the ball over the plate.”

Talk about opposites there

ALOT of scouts have this report on Rogers. He will be a SP in Jupiter but if he doesn't look great he could be moved to pen quickly. Upside is Andrew Miller

Probably #5 SP in Jupiter and FO likes Garrett and Stewart better as SP right now

Remember who picked Rogers and it was NOT Denbo

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This guy has to be someone from this site

http://slaterscoops.com/news/2019/2/...with-grandkids

[tjfla]

Not saying they have had the offers for awhile but its funny as hell to see all these reports about FA's having solid offers. The problem is the solid offers are for teams NO ONE wants to go to.

Marwin Gonzalez has a 3 yr offer from Minnesota but he is "waiting" to see if other deals come
Josh Harrison signed with Detroit after hoping another team would jump in
KC/SD signing guys

I agree the FA system is somewhat broke but if these guys want to get paid they are gonna have to realize that there is 30 teams in MLB and not 8

Note on Marwin: It seems he and his representatives at the Boras Corporation set out with a hefty asking price in the range of $60MM.

As for Martin Maldonado-Maldonado, however, is still seeking a fully guaranteed big league deal. Which is why we are OUT on him