2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Xander works for sure. If we wait one more year, though, won’t we have even more money off the books for Lindor?

Not how I see it, because once Chen is off the books, Anderson/Brinson/Ca. Smith/Conley/Steck/Riddle/etc. hit larger arbitration numbers starting in 2021, so Chen coming off the books basically pays for "internal raises" the next year or two.

The way I see it is, and assuming a $100 million payroll in 2021, they have $50 million to spend in 2021, and they could spend half of that in 2020 for a year early deal on someone epic. Based on Arenado going, that basically means "Xander and no one else" in 2020 as no one else would be an epic signing for them at a position of need, with a young guy in their prime. Xander is turning 27 entering 2020. So awesome.

I think you go for Xander all in, and if you dont get him, you have Lindor/others as fallbacks in future years.

My idea is:

Xander 2020 - $25 millionish
R. Ray/Paxton 2021 - $17.5 millionish
1 year 1B free agent 2021 - $5 millionish
Random veteran, let's call it a backup catcher 2021 for 1 year - $2.5 millionish

This is going to cost $90+ million in 2021 with Chen money:

C - Alfaro, Veteran
1B - Veteran, ______/Cooper
2B - Diaz, Riddle
SS - Xander
3B - Anderson
LF - VVM
CF - Brinson
RF - Montre, Sierra/Miller/Herrera/Dean/Ramirez/Guerrero/whoever

SP - Sixto, Ray/Paxton, Alcantara, Neidert/Pablo, Ca.Smith/Stewart
RHP - Guzman, Cabrera, Holloway, Richards, Gallen/Yamamoto/whoever
LHP - _____, Ca.Smith/Stewart, _____/Quijada

They still have Castro, Steckenrider, Conley, Rojas, Straily, Walker, etc. to trade, so if you dont like some names there, that should turn into a backup C/1B, extra OF options even if just platoon guys, and more bullpen lefties to fill out the staff.

Likewise, they will have this in the farm as presumably most of their top 15 prospects:

C-Banfield
1B-Pompey
MI-Devers
OF-Scott, Osiris
SP-Garret, Rogers
TBD 5-6 potentially great assets - 2018 # 4 pick, 2019 top 5 pick, 2018 supplemental 1st, 2018 2nd, 2019 2nd, anyone they get from IFA

That then becomes a reverse Yelich situation, where the Marlins can hopefully trade 3-4 significant young guys for one drop on the top monster player to round this all out.

This team works if you're going to get average MLB starters (2+ WAR) out of the 6 core internal bats and 1 SP breakout into a real # 2 SP. Basically Sixto.

The only issue is the failure rate for the bats. They need to figure out what they got with the Brewers kids, or fall into a Muncy if they don't work out.

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You do fall into Ugglas, Ross, Bours, and Dietrichs in low level transactions every now and then, so I do have some confidence with 2 full MLB seasons, they figure out how to find at least 6 starting players with what they have and can get for cheap.

They need a lot to go right, but it's not a full hail mary situation. They just need a Xander.

[fauowls44]

Harper to Philly for 13 years/$330 million. No opt outs.

[Nick]

Wow

[rmc523]

No opt-outs, no deferred money, full no trade clause.

[Namaste]

When your teams season is over before it starts:


https://twitter.com/betqlapp/status/...340022784?s=21

[fish16]

wait dallas keuchel is still a free agent?

[rmc523]

When your teams season is over before it starts:


https://twitter.com/betqlapp/status/...340022784?s=21

Hell, according to that, the Marlins have been contracted and don't exist.

wait dallas keuchel is still a free agent?

Yessir.

[fish16]

also idk the money situation with the braves for this year but kimbrel to them on a huge 1-2 year deal makes way too much sense.

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there are very few relievers id give enormous money to but kimbrel is one of them.

[fish16]

going through team rosters to catch up on what everyone did this offseason. i missed a ton of moves

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anyone know what in the world is going on in the indians outfield? Also that harper deal is unbelievably long

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also i completely missed jed lowrie signing with the mets.

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Nats managed to lose harper and i somehow like their team more this year.

[Nick]

Yeah we had a lot of discussions defending a big contract for Harper with Lee Stone, end of the day though, I'd say the Phillies paid too much.

[fish16]

its not the amount that is foolish, its just the years. harper would be one of the only guys where 13 years makes sense but even for him 13 years is just not a smart investment.

[lou]

I think it's a great deal for Philly.

They are paying Harper like a 3.2 WAR player. He's going to drop some years closer to 2015 at some point.

Hopefully for us, it's not also with Mike Trout in the lineup and yes they can afford that with how their future payroll is shaping up.

[Nick]

If Harper's worth this much what's Trout worth? 12 years $480 million?

[lou]

also idk the money situation with the braves for this year but kimbrel to them on a huge 1-2 year deal makes way too much sense.

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there are very few relievers id give enormous money to but kimbrel is one of them.

They have plenty of money. They can probably call up all their top prospects and fill out the team for $80 million NEXT year. They can easily drop $50 million in longterm deals right now on Keuchel, Kimbrel, and save the rest until they need it next year.

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If Harper's worth this much what's Trout worth? 12 years $480 million?

Trout will be older when he is a FA (still young though, 29 I believe), but he's also "better" and you're buying 4-5 super prime years of a Micky Mantle. It's going to blow these deals away. Especially with the Angels having to fight his urge to go home to Philly. I think it gets to $400+ but not as high as a $480 spitballing.

The more interesting test case is Lindor. If he has 2 more Lindor style years, that's going to be quite the deal for him.

[Nick]

I am looking forward to the first time Phillies fans turn on Harper that'll be fun.