2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[Nick]

Does whether we think Brinson is worthy matter at this point? He's gotta play, whether he deserves to or not, time for him to sink or swim. We're going to be bad no matter what the situation is in CF, might as well give Brinson every opportunity to show he can play in the big leagues.

[lou]

Does whether we think Brinson is worthy matter at this point? He's gotta play, whether he deserves to or not, time for him to sink or swim. We're going to be bad no matter what the situation is in CF, might as well give Brinson every opportunity to show he can play in the big leagues.

Fine with me, but he's not playing every inning in CF. Herrera is their next best option on the 40 man, and if he's on the roster, there is no room for a Cargo unless you DFA Prado.

We can't talk Cargo as that's the roster space for another CF, unless someone gets booted. That's it.

[lou]

Here's another fun one, and follow me here:

Chen - 2/$49 with the deferrals (payable over 3 years $16-$17-$16).

Ellsbury - 2/$47 ($21-$21+$5 buyout)

This helps the Yankees by getting money off 2019-2020 for luxury tax purposes. They can pay Bryce or Machado more basically right away.

This gets $16 million off Marlins 2021 payroll, which if we follow the math, they'll easy have 20+ players on club controlled deals for $30-35 million without Chen (and such number includes Urena, Conley, and Steckenrider). They could spend a FUCKING FORTUNE on 3-4 guys. Who cares about 19-20 payroll going up $5 and $9 respectively versus Chen.

For right now, this fills the "no other CF" void (if Ellsbury doesn't refuse to play).

Regardless, the biggest incentive here is to get Chen's money off 2021. That alone is worth it.

He has to waive a no trade, but I'd flat out tell Ellsbury we'll release you. Pay him $47 million to never play for the Marlins to get money off 2021.

[CWB3]

Only CF left are Maybin and Ad. Jones. They could sign Maybin for sure.

The only other route is hope for a good DFA (like maybe Marisnick) or trade.

Or rely on Herrera/Sierra.

Notably, Brinson is no sure thing so they should find someone who can play if necessary.

Span, or is he no longer passable in CF? Good PH numbers also.

Curious as to who everyone sees leading off currently? Granderson vs R and Castro vs L? Anderson would actually be my choice.

And yes, I think they DFA Prado or start him on the DL. Is he healthy yet? He offers no versatility (10 games at 2B in 2015 & 1 game at 1B last year) and he hasn’t put up an OPS north of .700 against RHP as a Marlin ever, or overall since 2016. He’s 35 yo on a rebuilding team that’s trying to make room for O’Brien, Dean and Cooper. Cooper should get a long look btw, Marlins FO seems to love him. It’s very difficult for me to see how Prado fits on this roster.

[lou]

Span, or is he no longer passable in CF? Good PH numbers also.

Curious as to who everyone sees leading off currently? Granderson vs R and Castro vs L? Anderson would actually be my choice.

And yes, I think they DFA Prado or start him on the DL. Is he healthy yet? He offers no versatility (10 games at 2B in 2015 & 1 game at 1B last year) and he hasn’t put up an OPS north of .700 against RHP as a Marlin ever, or overall since 2016. He’s 35 yo on a rebuilding team that’s trying to make room for O’Brien, Dean and Cooper. Cooper should get a long look btw, Marlins FO seems to love him. It’s very difficult for me to see how Prado fits on this roster.

Span didn't play CF at all in 2018, and was really bad defensively 2015-2017. If he can still do it OK enough, I'm all in as I've always liked Span. But I suspect he may be at the end of the line defensively. Not sure he's as solution. I think it's only Jones and Maybin left of legit players.

I agree Prado is the problem w/ Walker, whoever of O'Brien/Cooper/Alvarez is up, Anderson permanently at 3B, and Riddle/Rojas capable of playing everywhere. He makes no sense. In a perfect world, they acquire two more OF on 1 year deals and 1 is a legitimate CF.

C - Alfaro, Wallach
1B - Walker, O'Brien
2B - Castro (Riddle)
SS - Rojas, Riddle
3B - Anderson (Walker)
LF - Granderson (Walker, Anderson)
CF - Brinson, CF
RF - RF (Walker, Anderson)

Call ups

C - Holaday
1B/3B - Cooper, Alvarez
2B/SS - Diaz, Rivera
CF - Herrera, Sierra
OF - H. Ramirez, Dean

That works. This is a bit trivial of an exercise, but it does matter. They do need to field a MLB team, even if its a bad one, and the CF situation is very lacking right now.

[CWB3]

Gomez? OTB, but Brad Miller has 20 games in CF. I actually like Maybin and think he’d be a very good fit, Jones would be fantastic. That said, maybe they’ve intentionally ignored that position to take pressure off of Brinson. Last year they trumped him up as the face of the rebuild and that clearly backfired. Herrera’s about as low key as it gets.

[Erick]

For what it’s worth, Adam Jones isn’t a good CF’er anymore. There’s a reason he hasn’t signed yet.

[sports24/7]

So you think Straily being on the roster is just a negative? Having too many starters almost always works itself out, especially when there really aren't any standouts in the group.

I don't understand the notion of selling as low as possible on Straily. I get wanting to clear the logjam at SP, but he's not a bad starting pitcher and is cheap. Holding on to him won't make his value go down, but it could go up. I'd rather move him to the pen and hope that he becomes the next Brad Hand rather than trade him for a 4th OF.

[fish16]

Baseball America has us at 13 for farm system rankings. They have the same viewpoint as me that this front office despite the criticism has done a fantastic job of replenishing the depth in our system. And that’s without any draft picks from this regime based on their actual results given that our mid first rounder last year was based in the results from the year before they took over. We will have a top 4 pick this year and then likely again next year. This is being built the right way and it is why I’ve always been optimistic and never wavered about the job they have done since they took over. Not every prospect will work out but process is always the most important thing when it comes to team building and we are finally being built the right way

- - - - - - - - - -

and i really think that our system has the possibility of rising to top 10 and maybe top 5 by this time next year given we will have a t op 5 pick and then we have so many guys returning from injuries/making their first impression in the minors like Garrett, Rogers, Holloway, Scott, Banfield, Johnson, the mesa's, will stewart, etc. this farm system has a ton of room for growth.

people focus on that top 100 list and its arbitrary cut off but we have a ton of guys in the 100-150-175 range which is also incredibly important to build an all around good team. guys like Isan, Gallen, Neidert, etc might never be star type guys but they are critical to the building of a healthy and sustainable organization and we are well on the way to doing that.

[lou]

Baseball America has us at 13 for farm system rankings. They have the same viewpoint as me that this front office despite the criticism has done a fantastic job of replenishing the depth in our system. And that’s without any draft picks from this regime based on their actual results given that our mid first rounder last year was based in the results from the year before they took over. We will have a top 4 pick this year and then likely again next year. This is being built the right way and it is why I’ve always been optimistic and never wavered about the job they have done since they took over. Not every prospect will work out but process is always the most important thing when it comes to team building and we are finally being built the right way

- - - - - - - - - -

and i really think that our system has the possibility of rising to top 10 and maybe top 5 by this time next year given we will have a t op 5 pick and then we have so many guys returning from injuries/making their first impression in the minors like Garrett, Rogers, Holloway, Scott, Banfield, Johnson, the mesa's, will stewart, etc. this farm system has a ton of room for growth.

people focus on that top 100 list and its arbitrary cut off but we have a ton of guys in the 100-150-175 range which is also incredibly important to build an all around good team. guys like Isan, Gallen, Neidert, etc might never be star type guys but they are critical to the building of a healthy and sustainable organization and we are well on the way to doing that.

Yes, Keith Law is a clown when it comes to the Marlins as their ranking should be closer to 13 than 28 in a worst case scenario, but we knew that already.

But you're stretching it on fantastic. Fantastic is Brinson and Monte hitting 35 HR a piece last year at whatever level, and Alcantara and Guzman surefire starters.

They've done a solid job - and I agree there is big upside as they have multiple boom or bust guys - and 2021 is looking really nice with a minimum of 20 players making cumulatively $50 million (including $16 for Chen on deferrals), but we're a long ways from fantastic.

- - - - - - - - - -

For what it’s worth, Adam Jones isn’t a good CF’er anymore. There’s a reason he hasn’t signed yet.

This is a good point, I didn't realize his defense dropped that much.

So it's literally Maybin, waiting for a camp DFA like Marisnick, trading for someone, or Herrera.

They really need something here unless they are right on Herrera, and considering a rebuilding KC let him go...

[fish16]

i meant fantastic in terms of the overall process and how needed it was for the franchise. that is my thing more than anyone else, sticking to the proven process and not straying from that process. individual prospects will always fail a lot of the time, my overall focus is just the process and that is why loria was so exceedingly awful on top of many other reasons

[lou]

i meant fantastic in terms of the overall process and how needed it was for the franchise. that is my thing more than anyone else, sticking to the proven process and not straying from that process. individual prospects will always fail a lot of the time, my overall focus is just the process and that is why loria was so exceedingly awful on top of many other reasons

Sure, the process is correct, but execution counts if you turned Yelich, Stanton, and Ozuna into three backup OF, three relievers, and two lottery ticket middle infielders that only have averageish upside.

They are going to be in great shape though if they can get 2 more starting player breakouts and Anderson holds his 2018 performance

[Nick]

I think to have a great system you have to have some prospects have real success at the AA and AAA levels. The opposite of that happened last year, outside of Nick Neidert, who is a good not great prospect. I agree there's intriguing potential we're going to see between Low-A and AA this season, but you gotta back it up with performance. We have a couple more Monte Harrison's and Lewis Brinson's this year and it could easily go in the other direction.

[Erick]

I like the way Mattingly and the team are talking at the start of Spring Training. Open to using the opener and having no set closer. It’s an indication they’re probably no longer ignoring analytics anymore. That, and valuing the IFA market are reasons for hope.

[lou]

Speaking of higher upside - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to...-2020-top-100/

Scott, Devers, and Holloway got mentions of guys who could shoot into the top 100 prospect lists next year.

That's nice, but disappointing Guzman, VVM, Garret, and Rogers aren't mentioned.