2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

I disagree and here's why: Signing a player to an extension is very different than a free agent signing. For someone like JT, with two years remaining, an extension is akin to an insurance policy. As it is, he could be injured and unable to play at his current level or unable to play at all. An extension secures his financial future. And whether you choose to acknowedge it or not, the team is taking a risk.

While i agree that it is akin to an insurance policy, in this case the offer he received, at least the first one, is akin to a really shitty insurance policy who's payout in the event of an injury is not nearly worth the risk that he would be taking on in case of getting hurt the next few years prior to free agency. He could have another good year this year and then completely miss the entire season prior to his free agency and i think he might be able to get more than 4 years 43 million or whatever the offer reportedly was.

I think the second offer is a decent enough starting position from a marlins negotiating perspective, but that first offer is and should be insulting to JT. Lets also take into account though that these figures could be wrong as im pretty sure others have reported other offers the marlins made to JT and those reported offers were very reasonable.

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The team's taking a risk in not resigning him as well. The closer we get to him becoming an outright free agent the more his value drops and then you run the risk of getting nothing for him. You don't insult your most talented player with this kind of offer and expect the talent to come flocking to you in the future.

Also, didn't tj say throughout the season that Realmuto had not been offered a contract and that they were waiting until after the season to try and re-sign him?

I think he did but in TJ's defense i think the whole question of whether an official offer has been made is generally overblown and over worried about. Both sides generally know what the other side is looking for so the distinction of whether an official offer has been made or there is merely just discussion between the 2 sides isnt all that significant.

[fauowls44]

I don't doubt Mish's reporting...he's very good at covering the Marlins, probably the best in the market right now.

That said, this seems to me like the agent putting this out there in an attempt to move this trade along. I'm not saying the information is necessarily wrong. Just maybe presented in a way to paint the team in a bad light...perhaps to lower the price a bit to get a trade completed. Maybe these deals were an initial framework in July and not an actual offer...who knows. I do know that Mish is going to have JT's agent as his podcast guest this week, so it's probably not too hard to figure out the source here.

[lou]

I disagree and here's why: Signing a player to an extension is very different than a free agent signing. For someone like JT, with two years remaining, an extension is akin to an insurance policy. As it is, he could be injured and unable to play at his current level or unable to play at all. An extension secures his financial future. And whether you choose to acknowedge it or not, the team is taking a risk.

What they offered is far, far, far, too low and one cannot accept under 66% of what one is worth. 5/$80 is a discount. His free agency years/surplus value will be higher if he hits free agency in his prime.

There is a happy medium to these deals. The Marlins win in the low 70s, Realmuto wins over 85. Find the sweet spot.

[fish16]

I don't doubt Mish's reporting...he's very good at covering the Marlins, probably the best in the market right now.

That said, this seems to me like the agent putting this out there in an attempt to move this trade along. I'm not saying the information is necessarily wrong. Just maybe presented in a way to paint the team in a bad light...perhaps to lower the price a bit to get a trade completed. Maybe these deals were an initial framework in July and not an actual offer...who knows. I do know that Mish is going to have JT's agent as his podcast guest this week, so it's probably not too hard to figure out the source here.

This is why i take those reports with a grain of salt generally. Not only did Frisaro (I believe it was him) tell us something completely different a few weeks ago (not that he is the barometer for inside marlins knowledge), but you also have to think about who the potential source might be and the reasons why they would be willing to give up the info. This has JT's agent written all over it.

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say JT plays all year this upcoming year and plays like he did last year but then were to miss the entire season prior to his free agency with some sort of injury (think freak injury but not a injury that will debilitate his entire remaining career), he would 100% still get more than the 4 years and 43 million I would think. In order for the insurance policy rationale for JT to accept the deal to be valid that money has to be closer to at least 4 years 60.

I think it goes like this: JT if he is really that concerned about injury should accept like 5 years 65 million. Marlins would prefer a deal in the range of 5 years and lower than 80 million, and JT would theoretically accept anything greater than like 5 years and 85-90 million.

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Regardless, he will be dealt before the year and I think it is likely that we have been gathering offers and making calls and will make final decisions come next week at the winter meetings like we did last year for Stanton.

[Namaste]

This won’t end well

[fish16]

This won’t end well

id say it will be fine and still end up in a great return but id get accused of relentless positivity despite the fact that ive criticized the front office consistently for a year in regards to letting brinson start the year up in the majors, not signing more free agents to flip at the deadline last year, not signing more free agents in order to prevent rushing prospects, not trading more guys at the deadline at the peak of their value, not handling the PR very well at the beginning of their tenure, among many more complaints.

They will get enough for JT.

[Namaste]

I doubt Craig Mish pulled these numbers out of his ass. They lowballed him. Who is genuinely shocked? I’m not.

[fish16]

I doubt Craig Mish pulled these numbers out of his ass. They lowballed him. Who is genuinely shocked? I’m not.

And considering he'll have JT's agent on his podcast next week, I doubt the numbers are accurate or at least representative of the actual conversations they had. Frisaro reported what seemed like the marlins perspective on the offers a few weeks ago. I'd guess it's somewhere in the middle.

[Nick]

Not sure lying about offers you get from teams is a good way to further your career as an agent in professional sports.

[Lee Stone]

What they offered is far, far, far, too low and one cannot accept under 66% of what one is worth. 5/$80 is a discount. His free agency years/surplus value will be higher if he hits free agency in his prime.

There is a happy medium to these deals. The Marlins win in the low 70s, Realmuto wins over 85. Find the sweet spot.

There's no such thing as fair market value in baseball. The term would only have validity if all teams had the same budget for payroll. Miami, Tampa Bay and Oakland live in a tiny revenue world and have to play by very different rules than most of the league. The A's had one $10M player last season. No other player was paid more than $6.5M. The Rays top salary was $5.6. They were both very competitive clubs.

The Marlins likely need an entire new lineup (depending on how you feel about Brian Anderson) going forward. Pick your own package deal for Realmuto, but two everyday minimum wagers like Ruiz and Lux would help the Marlins far more than JT alone.

[tjfla]

The team's taking a risk in not resigning him as well. The closer we get to him becoming an outright free agent the more his value drops and then you run the risk of getting nothing for him. You don't insult your most talented player with this kind of offer and expect the talent to come flocking to you in the future.

Also, didn't tj say throughout the season that Realmuto had not been offered a contract and that they were waiting until after the season to try and re-sign him?

I actually said they have tried talking to him about an extension(I heard about the trade deadline 1 in July)and they thought they could possible extend him in Oct which is why they didnt trade him for Robles at the deadline. I did NOT hear about the 2nd one but assume thats the reason JT's agent came out in Oct and said he won't be on Miami next year

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This won’t end well

Will end the way many of us thought it would last Dec. JT traded

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Looks like they signed Pedro Alvarez to a minor league deal. Seemingly looks like the plan is to spend no money on 1B and churn out power-upside guys.

I'm fine with that. The minor league deal strategy looks much improved this year versus prior years.

They invited 14 guys to ST. 5 or 6 are there for depth.(LHP/C) But Holaday and Pedro Alvarez should make the team and Marrero and Machado could make it over Rivera very easily

Doubt any of the OF make the team but VV,Guerrero and Harold could be up on the ML team at some point. Harold could become a Austin Dean type

[fish16]

Not sure lying about offers you get from teams is a good way to further your career as an agent in professional sports.

i have some bad news for you if you think part of an agents job nowadays isnt to manipulate the media in order to get a desired result for your client. Also, we are speculating that he is the one who said that because it was just reported as a "source" even though it seems pretty obvious it was the agent considering the day Mish announced that story he also announced that he'd be having the agent on his podcast.

[tjfla]

i have some bad news for you if you think part of an agents job nowadays isnt to manipulate the media in order to get a desired result for your client. Also, we are speculating that he is the one who said that because it was just reported as a "source" even though it seems pretty obvious it was the agent considering the day Mish announced that story he also announced that he'd be having the agent on his podcast.

Ya JT's agent has been playing it this way since Dec 2017. JT wants out of Miami and his agent is getting paid to do the dirty work

[fish16]

Ya JT's agent has been playing it this way since Dec 2017. JT wants out of Miami and his agent is getting paid to do the dirty work

Ya his agent has been manipulating shit for a few months at least. And not in a way that will help his client all that much. Might have even hurt him coming out a few months ago and saying publicly that JT wont be on the team at the beginning of next year.

[tjfla]

Next week will be busy for us. Gonna be tons of legit JT trade talk,maybe 1 or 2 cheap signings and Rule 5 draft(1 or 2 picks in ML part and like 10 in minors)