2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[emkayseven]

disagree, that contract will never be moveable

[lou]

Chen should be starting to begin the year. He was healthy last season and was wuite good in the second half. If he continues to pitch how he did in the second half he will be moveable. Be it for another contract or the team eating some of his money.

Yea to start for sure. We should work backwards on this on an academic level based on the most important thing - which I assume everyone agrees is the kid's longterm development and health.

Here's a three years innings span and random comments:

22
Neidert: 91-128-152————>160+
23
Sandy: 122-133-150 ——> 160+
Pablo: 84-145-121 ———> 145+
26
Richards - A lot of innings. He can throw 170+
27
Smith - 145+. He's been hurt here/there, and should be ticked up slightly for safety. However, he is older so I might be being too careful here and he could get up to 160-170
Urena - He's basically thrown 170 back to back years. He could be ticked up to 200 IP easy if he can get the outs. Up to him.
X
Straily - Throw him till he breaks. Grown ass man and he is for sure traded in July
Chen - Probably also, throw him till he breaks. He's a grown ass man making a shitload of money with past success when healthy.


So that breaks down to, in order of importance (not rotation slot, I don't care how they slot them 1-5):

1 - Urena - Set him all year and forget it. As many innings as he can throw

2 - Alcantara - I'm going to say he has nothing to prove in minors and has the raw stuff to succeed in the majors. They should baby his innings to 4-6 IP per start (160IP/32Starts is a 5 average). Pitch him on schedule all year, not deep into games and avoid # 3/4/5 hitters third time through the lineup when possible to shelter him. He's arguably their second most important organizational pitcher (Sixto) so I think you give him priority over everyone, make a special plan for him, and maneuver the lesser assets around him.

3 - Straily / Neidert - This seems like an obvious combined full year of starting to me. When Straily gets shipped out, Neidert comes up and replaces him. It's the right timing for both of them, They may need to shut Neidert down in September as he should be throwing full innings in the minors, but who cares. Garbage time starts in September can go to anyone who has some juice left in tank. Gallen, Yamamoto, Brigham, Eliseir, anyone.

4 (tentatively) - Chen - This is where it becomes a clusterfuck, but I think you start him and see what happens. It'll be good for him to eat some innings, at a minimum, as the kids realistically cannot throw full years yet (unless they go to Tampa style bullpen usage, etc.) and I think we'd all want them to end strong versus throw all their innings by mid-August and be shut down. Likewise, if he pitches well, that's only going to help on any level you look at it with keeping or trading him.

4/5 - Ca. Smith/Richards - Let the best one (or healthiest if Smith needs a month in AAA to rehab) be anointed as the first "5" as they have the best shot at throwing full innings if they hold up. Both were pretty solid last year and are the oldest "prospects" so it's a fly or die year for them. The other one is the defacto 6th SP of the year, and is going to pitch legitimate innings no matter what as everyone isn't going to be healthy all year. Or, maybe they both look great and Chen (or Straily) has to be bumped right away. This is the real TBD two-some for me, but I can't imagine a scenario these two combined aren't throwing over 200 combined innings, if not more. They can keep one stretched out as an 8th MLB reliever for sure and not have to send to AAA.

AAA - Pablo, as both one of the babies in age and potential innings, he should probably be sent to AAA (he has 60 combined innings AA/AAA, and 58 at MLB level). He's got plenty of time and there is no rush with him. I would truly baby him April/May, and then let him throw more innings over the summer and hope he still has some juice for some of those garbage time starts in September.


That's what makes sense to me anyways, obviously subject to performance changes. I think they are in pretty good shape here. Longterm, I'd like to see some higher end lefty relievers coming up through the system, but I guess that's what Castro/Straily/Rojas/Walker/Whoever trades are for.

SP - Urena, Chen, Straily, Alcantara, Ca. Smith/Richards
RHP - Romo, Steckenrider, Guerrero, Ferrell, Richards/Pick a RHP
LHP - Conley, Garcia, Smith/Pick a LHP

AAA
SP - Pablo, Neidert, Gallen, Noesi, Elisier
RHP - Anderson, Brice, Brigham, Kinley, Keller, Meyer, Graves
LHP - Quijada, Lee

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disagree, that contract will never be moveable

Yea. I imagine their best day is....

Chen looks like a good 4th SP OR solid reliever at the deadline this year
Someone wants a lefty
Someone is willing to take a chance on him and pick up a small amount of his remaining salary this year,
and commit to paying him around $5 million next year. The going rate on 1 year flyer pitchers seems to be around $5 (even Wade Miley got something like that) and relievers are getting that much for sure. If he looks real good, someone could get behind that maybe.

So then they can maybe trade him for a low FV40 prospect or two, and send the other club at least $34 million to make that happen. And the Marlins will have paid Chen $8 million of his payroll for half of 2018.

So basically, they save around $7 million and get some low level prospects like Garret Cooper and Merandy Gonzalez. Best day.

Might make sense to just hold until after 2019 as the more innings he proves, the more value he can theoretically generate.

[Namaste]

Chen will be out for 2 months with elbow soreness by May 24th.

[tjfla]

Chen will be out for 2 months with elbow soreness by May 24th.

Marlins would love that. Pitch him till May and keep Sandy/Pablo down for Super 2 then nothing(DL) till Aug/Sept to eat some innings and rest young guys.Honestly if he wasn't such a good clubhouse guy they would probably tell him to sit home for next 2 years

They could trade his contract but would have to take back a bad one too and give up prospects

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I don't understand not using Chen in the pen. Even if he pitches well out of the rotation, you're not going to be able to deal him. I think there's a better chance he's effective out of the pen, because he certainly hasn't been effective in the rotation, plus he's injured all the time.

They really don't care about this year which is why u see guys like Prado/Chen here still and others like O'Brien/Austin Dean/arms getting looks. FO goal is to get thru this year and if guys have value trade them at the deadline for guys who could do something NEXT year or IFA cash/picks

[lou]

Marlins would love that. Pitch him till May and keep Sandy/Pablo down for Super 2 then nothing(DL) till Aug/Sept to eat some innings and rest young guys.Honestly if he wasn't such a good clubhouse guy they would probably tell him to sit home for next 2 years

They could trade his contract but would have to take back a bad one too and give up prospects

They really don't care about this year which is why u see guys like Prado/Chen here still and others like O'Brien/Austin Dean/arms getting looks. FO goal is to get thru this year and if guys have value trade them at the deadline for guys who could do something NEXT year or IFA cash/picks

Sandy and Pablo have 100 and 93 days of service time respectively, so they can let them rip day 1 and it won't impact being a Super 2. If we want to manipulate service time, keep Pablo down until July 15thish and Sandy until July 23rdish (give or take a few days as roughly calculating), and you gain a YEAR of service time as they'll end the year with .171 Days, which is 1 day less than a full service clock year of 172 days. That seems easy to do with Pablo as a non-top prospect, not so much with Alcantara who has already had a full year at AAA and it's pretty much time to see if he's going to get outs at the MLB level.

They could probably go with Urena, Chen, Straily, Ca. Smith, and Richards to open the year with the other two in AAA, and let's say Noesi is the de facto "6th" SP for the first half of the year. If they can get to mid-June, Neidert and Gallen can be called up for extra arms to spot start as they'll have passed their own Super2 deadline, and then let Pablo and Sandy rip in mid/late July after a full year in AAA. I'm fine if they want to do that with Sandy and Pablo to let them develop as young SP and manufacture a year, I just think it will be difficult to get starter innings for at least 2 1/2 months presuming full health and adequate performance from all of Urena, Chen, Straily, Ca. Smith, Richards, and Noesi. If anyone gets hurt, Noesi is definitely up. He should be desperation not to be counted on, unless he really lights it up out of nowhere.

As mentioned above, Urena, Chen, Straily, Alcantara, and Ca. Smith/Richards (other in pen stretched out as the long reliever to act as de facto 6th SP) is what I would do, with Noesi as desperation innings, and then phase in Neidert and Pablo later in the year when guys are traded/hurt.

[tjfla]

Noesi probably starts year on ML roster as LR guy/spot starter

Noesi/Brice/Elieser are the 3 options right now for the 1 open pen job(LR Role)

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Hey lou any clue who is out of options this year?

[lou]

Noesi probably starts year on ML roster as LR guy/spot starter

Noesi/Brice/Elieser are the 3 options right now for the 1 open pen job(LR Role)

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Hey lou any clue who is out of options this year?

My best guess would be:

Out - Herrera, Brice, Guerrero, Wallach

I think this will be their last option assuming they get a cup of coffee at big league level, which seems probable - Ca. Smith, Cooper, Garcia, Alcantara, Sierra, O'Brien

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Ferrell is also a Rule V obviously for this year's purposes

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Brinson also has 1 more option, but everyone else is either not getting demoted (Anderson, Steckenrider, etc.), has more than 1, or doesn't matter.

The best possible team to me solely looking at "keeping everyone" is:

C - Alfaro, Wallach
1B - Walker, Prado
2B - Castro
SS - Rojas, Riddle
3B - Anderson
LF - Granderson
CF - Brinson, Herrera
RF - O'Brien

SP - Urena, Chen, Straily, Alcantara, Richards/Ca. Smith
RHP - Romo, Steckenrider, Guerrero, Ferrell, Brice
LHP - Conley, Garcia, Ca. Smith/Quijada

[lou]

Actually, move O'Brien to OOO.

This is my best guess:

Out Of Options - Herrera, Brice, Guerrero, Wallach, O'Brien

Last Option Which Will Be Burned in 2019 - Alfaro, Steckenrider, Brinson, Riddle, Ca. Smith, Cooper, Garcia, Alcantara, Sierra*

*They are really incentivized to keep him in the minors all of 2019, and push his last option year to 2020 so they can preserve 2 years of control before officially having to put him on 25 man. This creates even less theoretical CF/OF depth in 2019 and begs the question why there isn't anyone besides Brinson and Herrera around to play CF. They really need to pick up another CF unless Granderson is magically going to play some adequate CF innings.

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This is truly screaming to me to DFA Prado and pick up a MLB quality CF

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O'Brien/Cooper/Alvarez is a "fantastic" contingency plan for the backup 1B slot for the season. That gets you to 2020.

Pick up a legitimate guy who can play CF and tell him he's getting the lion's share of RF time, and let Herrera battle H. Ramirez/Guerrero/Dean for the 4th OF slot not having to worry about a human being able to play CF. May the best fringe prospect win.

[tjfla]

I could see that with Sierra especially since he is 23 all year

Brice probably gets first crack at LR job then and if stinks it up Noesi gets call up

Dont forget Julian Fernandez is Rule 5 too. Has to be on 90 days so by July he has to be ready


Out Of Options - Herrera, Brice, Guerrero, Wallach, O'Brien. Everyone but Herrera will probably make the team out of ST unless they get some DFA guys. Brice and Wallach probably pass thru unclaimed while O'Brien/Herrera might get a look

[lou]

Frisario saying Granderson is going to bat lead-off against RHP (probably). .355 OBP last year against right handers. Kind of shocking they may do a smart thing.

I'd do it this way, and this is basically to unapologetically protect Brinson with the best hitters sandwiched around him and give him the best opportunity to succeed. If he fails, shift it in May.

Granderson
Walker
Brinson
Anderson
Castro
Alfaro
Riddle (should get strong side vs RHP)
O'Brien/Whoever

Feel free to swap around Anderson, Walker, and Castro any order 2, 4-5.

[lou]

I mean, if we take this even further, they are in insane 40 man shape next year. They basically only need to add Sixto, Neidert, Gallen, and Stewart next year. If we're looking at the likely burnouts/OOO guys, the 40 man protection is going to be:

Locks

C - Alfaro
IF - Diaz, Riddle, Anderson
OF - Brinson, Monte, Sierra
SP - Urena, Alcantara, Chen, Lopez, Richards, Ca. Smith, Sixto, Neidert, Gallen, Stewart
RP - Conley, Guzman, Holloway, Quijada, Steckenrider, Yamamoto
=23(!)

Maybes based on performance. I would assume half those RP will stick at least on the 40 man, and they'll get a few bats. Likewise, probably get some guys they have to protect from Castro/Rojas/Straily/Walker/etc. moves that are coming.

C - Wallach, Holaday
IF - O'Brien, Cooper, Brigham, Nelson, Reynolds
OF - Dean, Herrera, Guerrero, H. Ramirez (VVM doesn't need to be protected until called up).
RP - Anderson, Brice, Brigham, Eveld, Ferrell, Fernandez, Garcia, Merandy, Guerrero, E. Hernandez, Keller, Kinley, Smith

They are going to have a ton of space.

[Ralph]

Sucks that when they are actually planning on spending the free agents are gonna suck.

[lou]

Sucks that when they are actually planning on spending the free agents are gonna suck.

Kind of, but

2020 - Goldschmidt, Abreu, Arenado, Rendon, Bogaerts, Didi, Ozuna, Castellanos, Eaton, Cole, Wheeler

2021 - Realmuto, Zunino, Simmons, Profar, Trout, Betts, Springer, DeGrom, Bauer, Ray, Paxton, Hendricks

The bolds make a lot of sense to me, as their biggest longterm issues on paper are longterm 1B and SS starters, and super-elite (Cole/DeGrom) and lefty SP (Paxton/Ray).

This is presuming they are in the market for the top tier or two guys, but a bunch of those guys are going to get to FA and the Marlins might have $50+ million to spend on 3-4 guys.

I think the dream, potentially realistic, scenario is Xander a year early, and DeGrom/Ray/Paxton in 2021. Spending BIG money on all of them for years. These guys do know Didi well also if we are connecting dots. Didi is 29 and will be age 30 season for 2020. He's probably good value on a 4 year deal after this year if he proves health.

I'd perpetually punt on 1B and sign 1 year bashers until a cheap/elite internal option emerges.

If the rebuild takes longer, 2022 is loaded if these guys get to FA.

2022 - Freeman, Rizzo, Belt, Baez, Bryant, Shaw, Lindor, Correa, Seager, Story, Conforto, Buxton, Syndergaard

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Straight up spend $45-50 combined on Xander/Ray or Paxton, and 2021 you are around $90 million (including Chen deferred payments) and probably only need to sign a starting 1B and bench position players/platoon OF which as shown with Walker/Granderson and so many MiLB deals this year, is going to be cheap.

[rmc523]

It'll be interesting to see if we'll have to overpay for being the Marlins. Or if things will work like the past two years where prices come down to levels we'd like.

---

Apparently the Giants are going to sign Maybin, btw. Eliminating a CF option for this year.

[tjfla]

Kind of, but

2020 - Goldschmidt, Abreu, Arenado, Rendon, Bogaerts, Didi, Ozuna, Castellanos, Eaton, Cole, Wheeler

2021 - Realmuto, Zunino, Simmons, Profar, Trout, Betts, Springer, DeGrom, Bauer, Ray, Paxton, Hendricks

The bolds make a lot of sense to me, as their biggest longterm issues on paper are longterm 1B and SS starters, and super-elite (Cole/DeGrom) and lefty SP (Paxton/Ray).

This is presuming they are in the market for the top tier or two guys, but a bunch of those guys are going to get to FA and the Marlins might have $50+ million to spend on 3-4 guys.

I think the dream, potentially realistic, scenario is Xander a year early, and DeGrom/Ray/Paxton in 2021. Spending BIG money on all of them for years. These guys do know Didi well also if we are connecting dots. Didi is 29 and will be age 30 season for 2020. He's probably good value on a 4 year deal after this year if he proves health.

I'd perpetually punt on 1B and sign 1 year bashers until a cheap/elite internal option emerges.

If the rebuild takes longer, 2022 is loaded if these guys get to FA.

2022 - Freeman, Rizzo, Belt, Baez, Bryant, Shaw, Lindor, Correa, Seager, Story, Conforto, Buxton, Syndergaard

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Straight up spend $45-50 combined on Xander/Ray or Paxton, and 2021 you are around $90 million (including Chen deferred payments) and probably only need to sign a starting 1B and bench position players/platoon OF which as shown with Walker/Granderson and so many MiLB deals this year, is going to be cheap.

Another option is trade for guys too. System should be solid by 2021

40-60 million to play with

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If anyone is wondering why we are trying to get IFA always

https://redsminorleagues.com/2019/02...iana-for-1-3m/

We did NOT get this guy but Cubans are always on the market and if u got free cash u can get some great talent. He is waiting till July 2 to sign

St Louis got this kid for $300,000 LY(LOOK at these stats)
http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp...tting/2018/ALL