2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Xander and #1 SP by 2021 OR #1 SP and try for Correa/Lindor in 2022

Be just like SD

I'd rather be like Milwaukee, except also sign a legit SP in addition to Cain and trade excess minor leaguers for the MVP. Sigh.

[Erick]

In regards to Prado, it seems like he’ll just play against lefties, and he might have something left in the tank against left-handed pitching. Assuming he stays healthy which I’m guessing playing 1B could help. His last full season (2016), he had a 1.068 .OPS against left-handed pitching. He probably won’t be that good obviously, but point is he could be productive against lefties. I would’ve preferred a Dietrich/Prado platoon so, to me, Walker is the problem unless if Dietrich did something unforgivable off the field.

[fish16]

lol. i love how people bought into the idea that the wannabe millionaire players are greedy when the billionaire owners (well maybe all except the dorks who own our team), who are seeing record income, get a free pass to not spend money and not even try to compete in many cases.

but it's the players' fault. they're the ones who eat absolute shit for years toiling in the minor leagues and then are paid a forced minimum for years and trash arbitration. all the while, their service time is manipulated, and then they don't, apparently, even get the big free agency payoff anymore like they used to. it's definitely their fault.

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Care to explain the facepalm? My suggestion would change the incentive for teams to keep their guys in the minors for as long as possible while also allowing players to get to free agency before they are 30 and no longer a smart long term investment

It is awful for the sport to have a guy like Vlad jr kept down this long despite everyone knowing he’s ready.

[lou]

In regards to Prado, it seems like he’ll just play against lefties, and he might have something left in the tank against left-handed pitching. Assuming he stays healthy which I’m guessing playing 1B could help. His last full season (2016), he had a 1.068 .OPS against left-handed pitching. He probably won’t be that good obviously, but point is he could be productive against lefties. I would’ve preferred a Dietrich/Prado platoon so, to me, Walker is the problem unless if Dietrich did something unforgivable off the field.

Walker had 3.6 and 2.2 WAR seasons in 2016-2017 and is only 33. Last year he had a .257 BABIP which explains a lot (I believe he got shifted hard, but still). He's their 2nd-4th best position player for sure after Anderson, maybe Castro and Alfaro depending on what happens. Hard to knock that signing for me. I'd still ditch Prado and not care as he does nothing for their longterm except maybe have a good attitude around the clubhouse (which Granderson and Walker have covered), but hopefully he has a 2015/2016 revival where he was objectively real good.

O'Brien is also a likely LHP splits guy based on his limited sample sizes (1.071 vs LHP in a robust 41 PA). Walker/O'Brien should be the 1B platoon.

Granderson and Herrera (.650 OPS RHP/ .506 OPS LHP) need someone to play against lefties in the OF big fucking time.

Best possible lineups (keeping Prado and Herrera as final two bench players) are:

vs RHP
Granderson (mix match 1-5 any order really)
Anderson
Brinson
Castro
Walker
Alfaro
Riddle (mix match 7-8 any order)
Herrera/O'Brien
Pitcher

vs LHP

Prado (1B) (I guess? Who else? Brinson?)
Anderson (mix match 2-4 any order)
Brinson
Castro
O'Brien (RF)
Alfaro
Rojas
Pitcher
The total deadweight of opposite split Granderson/Walker/Herrera/Riddle hitting a .500 OPS (or lower) in LF. Honestly you probably just player Herrera and take the defense. Bat the pitcher 8th to get a pinch hitter faster. This is going to be atrocious with those 4 being the option.

(To note, I unapologetically put Brinson 3rd to put him in the best position to succeed. I don't care where he is 2-5 but it would be nice if he had a consistent lineup spot around the best other guys so we can pray).

[Nick]

Lou, I appreciate your thoroughness, but every time you post these lineups I get a little sadder.

[lou]

Care to explain the facepalm? My suggestion would change the incentive for teams to keep their guys in the minors for as long as possible while also allowing players to get to free agency before they are 30 and no longer a smart long term investment

It is awful for the sport to have a guy like Vlad jr kept down this long despite everyone knowing he’s ready.

There are two easy fixes to this.

You build out the service time clock to say, over 81 days (half of games, etc.) you carry forward to a full year of service time. So if you want to keep Vlad down, you do it until August 1st versus April 12th. No more Kris Bryant .171 day under 1 year of service time garbage. In connection with this, you get rid of Super2 determinations all together. Once you "carry forward" your service year, you carry forward and you get your three arbitration years. There is still the chance for some manipulation, but the idea is, you keep guys down over half the season (service year 186 days) so you really got to earn it to get another year. Basically, you can call up guys to try last 2 months of the season and not get penalized (union wants more call ups for 40 man expansion, etc.). Or maybe (thought of this while typing), if you call them up in August they are playoff eligible and they get a super 2 status so there aren't 3 cheap years. If called up in September, not eligible for playoffs and not Super 2s as that's purely a try-out. A lot of variations to this that can work that creates a cost/benefit equation to teams and players. For instance, how about eliminating 40 man september rosters (many hate, including Mattingly), but mandating a 30 man september roster so clubs have to call up more guys for these try out periods, etc.

The second is restricted free agency. How about your last arbitration year you can opt into arbitration and shop for a deal (of limited length, say 3-4 years, i.e. so someone can get another crack at FA). Parent club can match an offer. You can put "get a draft pick" rules against players leaving, so if someone really wants Nolan Arenado, go pay him $150 million for 4 years, and the Rockies get their # 1 and a free supplemental 1/2/3 round pick based on Arenado's contract value. Arenado can take the money, or opt into arbitration and gamble on being healthy and going for broke in unrestricted free agency.

Not saying this is exactly what it should be, I'm spitballing and just saying if you tweak the service time and create a restricted free agency where the club can match, it's going to radically fix things getting player's paid a bit faster and not be inherently unfair for the team. The team's need to control players for this long because their development costs in the minors can be 5-6 years so they should get that long in the majors for sure.

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Lou, I appreciate your thoroughness, but every time you post these lineups I get a little sadder.

I die a little bit inside every time

[rmc523]

There are two easy fixes to this.

You build out the service time clock to say, over 81 days (half of games, etc.) you carry forward to a full year of service time. So if you want to keep Vlad down, you do it until August 1st versus April 12th. No more Kris Bryant .171 day under 1 year of service time garbage. In connection with this, you get rid of Super2 determinations all together. Once you "carry forward" your service year, you carry forward and you get your three arbitration years. There is still the chance for some manipulation, but the idea is, you keep guys down over half the season (service year 186 days) so you really got to earn it to get another year. Basically, you can call up guys to try last 2 months of the season and not get penalized (union wants more call ups for 40 man expansion, etc.). Or maybe (thought of this while typing), if you call them up in August they are playoff eligible and they get a super 2 status so there aren't 3 cheap years. If called up in September, not eligible for playoffs and not Super 2s as that's purely a try-out. A lot of variations to this that can work that creates a cost/benefit equation to teams and players. For instance, how about eliminating 40 man september rosters (many hate, including Mattingly), but mandating a 30 man september roster so clubs have to call up more guys for these try out periods, etc.

The second is restricted free agency. How about your last arbitration year you can opt into arbitration and shop for a deal (of limited length, say 3-4 years, i.e. so someone can get another crack at FA). Parent club can match an offer. You can put "get a draft pick" rules against players leaving, so if someone really wants Nolan Arenado, go pay him $150 million for 4 years, and the Rockies get their # 1 and a free supplemental 1/2/3 round pick based on Arenado's contract value. Arenado can take the money, or opt into arbitration and gamble on being healthy and going for broke in unrestricted free agency.

Not saying this is exactly what it should be, I'm spitballing and just saying if you tweak the service time and create a restricted free agency where the club can match, it's going to radically fix things getting player's paid a bit faster and not be inherently unfair for the team. The team's need to control players for this long because their development costs in the minors can be 5-6 years so they should get that long in the majors for sure.

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I die a little bit inside every time

One of the proposals out there now (it may have been proposed by the union) is that we'd have 26-man rosters the whole season, and September rosters are limited to 28-man on a given night (you still have a 40-man pool, but you have to designate a set 28 names per night).

[lou]

One of the proposals out there now (it may have been proposed by the union) is that we'd have 26-man rosters the whole season, and September rosters are limited to 28-man on a given night (you still have a 40-man pool, but you have to designate a set 28 names per night).

That makes a lot of sense to me (although there can be serious reliever abuse there so they'll have to figure something out. Maybe it's a 5 man supplemental roster they can pull from and not the entire 40 man, or you can't put a guy back on the roster for the next series if you take him off active so you just don't shuffle relievers, but that can be worked out).

The real key to me is the service time. It's ludicrous to game the system to get guys under .172 days of annual service time to preserve a year of control AND under around .120 days of total service time to avoid Super2 status designations. They need to wipe out that whole system. Let September time not count towards the clock, and do something where if you are called up before X date (all star break?) you get carried forward an entire year. The studs like Bryant and Vlad and Fernandez and Acuna will get called up because the team's need them and the teams can't wait until the all star break. Likewise, mid-July will be fun if there is across baseball a mass prospect call up because teams can do it and not lose the 6 years of control.

This is fixable. That's all I'm saying. This is not work stoppage territory. Fix the service time, create a restricted free agency to increase player leverage and not kill the teams (do the basketball thing where home team can offer more, etc.), probably increase minimum salary in years 2 and 3 so Derek Dietrich is more competitive as a free agent and doesn't have to compete with a $600k minimum value 3rd year player who is 3/4ths as good but the teams want the extra $2 million, etc.

[rmc523]

That makes a lot of sense to me (although there can be serious reliever abuse there so they'll have to figure something out. Maybe it's a 5 man supplemental roster they can pull from and not the entire 40 man, or you can't put a guy back on the roster for the next series if you take him off active so you just don't shuffle relievers, but that can be worked out).

The real key to me is the service time. It's ludicrous to game the system to get guys under .172 days of annual service time to preserve a year of control AND under around .120 days of total service time to avoid Super2 status designations. They need to wipe out that whole system. Let September time not count towards the clock, and do something where if you are called up before X date (all star break?) you get carried forward an entire year. The studs like Bryant and Vlad and Fernandez and Acuna will get called up because the team's need them and the teams can't wait until the all star break. Likewise, mid-July will be fun if there is across baseball a mass prospect call up because teams can do it and not lose the 6 years of control.

This is fixable. That's all I'm saying. This is not work stoppage territory. Fix the service time, create a restricted free agency to increase player leverage and not kill the teams (do the basketball thing where home team can offer more, etc.), probably increase minimum salary in years 2 and 3 so Derek Dietrich is more competitive as a free agent and doesn't have to compete with a $600k minimum value 3rd year player who is 3/4ths as good but the teams want the extra $2 million, etc.

There was something about a 12-pitcher limit. But I don't remember if that applied to just the 26-man part, or if it also applied to the 28 man part. I get what you're saying, though.

[lou]

There was something about a 12-pitcher limit. But I don't remember if that applied to just the 26-man part, or if it also applied to the 28 man part. I get what you're saying, though.

I think it was the 25 (26) man, I saw that one too. I don't know how that works though as teams carry extra pitchers now.

I would approach that in limiting mound visits / pitch clock / limiting pitching changes overall / minimum batters per pitcher / etc. versus mandating you can't carry pitchers. Teams should be allowed to carry 20 pitchers if they want - just win baby - but they just need to speed it up so every game isn't 4 hours. It seems most impactful to me to limit that laundry list of other things versus mandating roster configurations.

[CWB3]

The total deadweight of opposite split Granderson/Walker/Herrera/Riddle hitting a .500 OPS (or lower) in LF. Honestly you probably just player Herrera and take the defense. Bat the pitcher 8th to get a pinch hitter faster. This is going to be atrocious with those 4 being the option.

Garrett Cooper? I think he’s the everyday LF. Assuming they keep Prado and he’s healthy to start the season, Herrera's facing an uphill battle for the 25. JMO.

[lou]

Garrett Cooper? I think he’s the everyday LF. Assuming they keep Prado and he’s healthy to start the season, Herrera's facing an uphill battle for the 25. JMO.

Who do you have as the backup CF then?

[CWB3]

I know you disagree but I don’t think they’ll hesitate to run Granderson out there. I’m also not convinced Prado and O’Brien are locks. In fact, rethinking my last post, I have Herrera with a better shot at making it than the possibility Miami keeps both O’Brien and Prado. I think they’d like to move on from Prado, but feel it needs to be handled delicately. That said, it’s only been a season since Granderson played 65 in CF. It’s hard for me to believe they’d just hand Herrera a job.

[Nick]

They did throw Yadiel Rivera out there in CF a couple times last year and he had basically no OF experience.

[rmc523]

I think it was the 25 (26) man, I saw that one too. I don't know how that works though as teams carry extra pitchers now.

I would approach that in limiting mound visits / pitch clock / limiting pitching changes overall / minimum batters per pitcher / etc. versus mandating you can't carry pitchers. Teams should be allowed to carry 20 pitchers if they want - just win baby - but they just need to speed it up so every game isn't 4 hours. It seems most impactful to me to limit that laundry list of other things versus mandating roster configurations.

Adding the DH to the NL would probably help with some of it - don't have to make switches and whatnot with pitchers batting. Plus, theoretically it'd mean more offense, which makes games more interesting, even if they remain long.