2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[fauowls44]

i have some bad news for you if you think part of an agents job nowadays isnt to manipulate the media in order to get a desired result for your client. Also, we are speculating that he is the one who said that because it was just reported as a "source" even though it seems pretty obvious it was the agent considering the day Mish announced that story he also announced that he'd be having the agent on his podcast.

I don't think anyone is lying necessarily, just spinning the story their way.

It's very possible that those numbers were discussed. It's also likely that just like in any negotiation, the Marlins started low and would have ended up at a fair deal. What's more likely is that JT decided he didn't want to be here so it wasn't worth continuing. They also wanted out last year, so I think this was just the plan all along.

[Nick]

i have some bad news for you if you think part of an agents job nowadays isnt to manipulate the media in order to get a desired result for your client. Also, we are speculating that he is the one who said that because it was just reported as a "source" even though it seems pretty obvious it was the agent considering the day Mish announced that story he also announced that he'd be having the agent on his podcast.

Ok, so how does letting everyone know that his client got a lowball offer from his current employer help him get Realmuto a better offer down the road? You don't think Derek Jeter has the clout in major league baseball to ruin this guy's career for lying about his organization?

[fish16]

Ok, so how does letting everyone know that his client got a lowball offer from his current employer help him get Realmuto a better offer down the road? You don't think Derek Jeter has the clout in major league baseball to ruin this guy's career for lying about his organization?

I think its about getting him out of miami, not necessarily the next offer he is hoping to receive. He is trying to put public pressure on the organization to deal him ASAP by putting public eyes onto a lousy "offer" and hoping miami deals him quickly to avoid the public backlash.

He's not lying id guess, id guess its what FAUowls said and that he is just spinning the reality of the situation. Im sure numbers were discussed back and forth and both sides are trying to have them released to the public for various reasons. Frisaro im assuming reported the marlins view of the situation and the numbers they wanted released a few weeks ago.

I dont know where you've been but being an agent is a dirty business filled with information always being put out there, truthful or not, for a particular reason. When you read a story like that with specific details you always need to think where that source is coming from and what the point of trying to release that to the public is.

- - - - - - - - - -

Next week will be busy for us. Gonna be tons of legit JT trade talk,maybe 1 or 2 cheap signings and Rule 5 draft(1 or 2 picks in ML part and like 10 in minors)

id assume its just like last year. We field offers up until the meetings for JT and then move him there, then take a couple fliers on guys in the rule 5, and then maybe 1-2 low key signings and maybe trading someone like Straily.

[lou]

There's no such thing as fair market value in baseball. The term would only have validity if all teams had the same budget for payroll. Miami, Tampa Bay and Oakland live in a tiny revenue world and have to play by very different rules than most of the league. The A's had one $10M player last season. No other player was paid more than $6.5M. The Rays top salary was $5.6. They were both very competitive clubs.

The Marlins likely need an entire new lineup (depending on how you feel about Brian Anderson) going forward. Pick your own package deal for Realmuto, but two everyday minimum wagers like Ruiz and Lux would help the Marlins far more than JT alone.

Your reasoning some teams pay less than others doesn't support your assertion. One can easily determine surplus value and the stratosphere teams should pay a player. Do teams try to negotiate down and up based on need and scarcity? Sure. Doesn't mean there isn't a reasonable market value. In this instance, if those JT prices are true, the Marlins are offering "fuck you" deals well below what he would expect to get. A player who produced back to back 3.7 and 3.8 WAR seasons, and then took a step forward at 27 years old to 4.8, to become definitively the best player at his position in baseball, is not worth an AAV of $14-15 million a year for free agency years in his prime. It's an embarrassing offer if true. S. Perez is not the comp in this situation. If Realmuto had half his value in 2018, sure. But that didn't happen.

Assuming Realmuto is traded, the Marlins need to get a young C, 1B, and SS for 2020 to play around Diaz, Anderson (who of course has earned - multiple - seasons based on last year, so I don't know why you are throwing shade at him), VVM, Brinson, and Monte as presumably all the predominant starters. It's that easy and not rocket science. I understand you have low expectations, but I think you would agree, all of these guys will get their shot regardless of what any of us think. Ideally, Realmuto will turn into at least 1 of those three holes (could be 2 but you hope for a SP), a major 2020 free agent is another (ideally someone like Xander), and they make a smart acquisition and turn a low-cost pumpkin into a Bour/C. Ross/Dietrich(at the right position) level starter. That gives them the full field of legit club-controlled young players for now, and if they fail in 2-3 years, ideally the Banfield, Osiris, Devers, Nelson, Scott, Pompey, Miller, 2019 picks, etc. group is getting close to internally replace them if so.

No one disagrees with you trading Realmuto may be a good decision to get players and use the projected payroll elsewhere either, but if they can signing him for a 5/$80 range, that is also a big win. Either scenario is fine. The only losing scenario is keeping him without a contract.

[lou]

I've also been thinking lately - why not extend Castro for 2 years. If you include the option, he is basically 2/$27 right now. Two years is a long ways to free agency. I bet if you moved that to something like 4/$50-55 he'd take it to lock in 3 more guaranteed years (as 2020 is a non-guaranteed option). He's definitely worth around $13-14 million a season and given the 2B landscape in baseball, that's not a bad deal for him. You're going to get 2+ WAR per year out of his age 29-32 seasons with his defense and hit tool which is what those years would lock in. It's not like this is paying a 33 year old Prado.

I'm interested in some upside here, as he had a huge BB spike to 7.4% (best in his career by a lot), and his hard hit rate spiked big time to 37.3% (career 28.7%). That's with little help in the lineup. I think there is some sneaky potential here. He was considered a cornerstone player coming up, maybe he is starting a second mini breakout versus his three year lull of 2013, and 2015-2016 (he was pretty good in 14). If he holds that walk rate and there is a slight uptick in power (like in 2016), you're talking about a really good player. He is in his prime right now even if he has been around forever.

To date, he's made about $40 million in baseball, so guaranteeing 3 more seasons on a $50+ deal pushes his lifetime earnings over $90 million. Not bad for a 32 year old. Maybe the allure of being close to home in the Dominican, in a low pressure environment, and liking no state income in Miami buys a little love. He'd still be a free agent again at a reasonable age for another 3-4 year deal.

We're all about trading him just to clear payroll, but I feel you just maximize the value of the player and this may be a better idea. If he wants a ton more, whatever move on, but a solid 4 year deal would create theoretically a smooth transition to Devers/Osiris/Torres who will need that long. This also lets them move Diaz for an equal value C/1B/SS to a team that could use a 2B and has multiple of the other (or could Diaz play 3B and move Anderson to 1B???), which helps pencil in the longterm position.

I'm just saying, I see an opportunity here if the price is right. Castro is pretty solid.

[rmc523]

I've also been thinking lately - why not extend Castro for 2 years. If you include the option, he is basically 2/$27 right now. Two years is a long ways to free agency. I bet if you moved that to something like 4/$50-55 he'd take it to lock in 3 more guaranteed years (as 2020 is a non-guaranteed option). He's definitely worth around $13-14 million a season and given the 2B landscape in baseball, that's not a bad deal for him. You're going to get 2+ WAR per year out of his age 29-32 seasons with his defense and hit tool which is what those years would lock in. It's not like this is paying a 33 year old Prado.

I'm interested in some upside here, as he had a huge BB spike to 7.4% (best in his career by a lot), and his hard hit rate spiked big time to 37.3% (career 28.7%). That's with little help in the lineup. I think there is some sneaky potential here. He was considered a cornerstone player coming up, maybe he is starting a second mini breakout versus his three year lull of 2013, and 2015-2016 (he was pretty good in 14). If he holds that walk rate and there is a slight uptick in power (like in 2016), you're talking about a really good player. He is in his prime right now even if he has been around forever.

To date, he's made about $40 million in baseball, so guaranteeing 3 more seasons on a $50+ deal pushes his lifetime earnings over $90 million. Not bad for a 32 year old. Maybe the allure of being close to home in the Dominican, in a low pressure environment, and liking no state income in Miami buys a little love. He'd still be a free agent again at a reasonable age for another 3-4 year deal.

We're all about trading him just to clear payroll, but I feel you just maximize the value of the player and this may be a better idea. If he wants a ton more, whatever move on, but a solid 4 year deal would create theoretically a smooth transition to Devers/Osiris/Torres who will need that long. This also lets them move Diaz for an equal value C/1B/SS to a team that could use a 2B and has multiple of the other (or could Diaz play 3B and move Anderson to 1B???), which helps pencil in the longterm position.

I'm just saying, I see an opportunity here if the price is right. Castro is pretty solid.

Isn't that just the time the Marlins would sign someone and then they fall apart?

-------

As for the JT situation - I'm sure the truth lies in the middle of both parties - The numbers the Marlins supposedly offered probably are true, but were likely intended as a lowball starting point (hey let's throw it out there and see if he bites....if he does, they got themselves an awesome deal, if not, go back to the table. That said, it can also be insulting if they went too low (and it sounds like they did). On the flip side, the Posey number from JT's camp probably is also accurate - they're shooting for the moon too in the other direction. That fits in with Frisaro's comments that they were really far apart, and also supports the agent's comments about him likely being somewhere else next year since they're so far apart. What needs to happen in order for a chance at getting a deal done - primarily from the Marlins side - is for both sides to come back to some sort of reality in their demands/offers. The Marlins' offer was way too low, and JT's number was way too high. If they can both be more realistic, and come closer to the offers mentioned in this thread (I think they were like 4/70 or 5/80-85), then I think we could see something happen. But if both sides are just going to draw their line in the sand and not budge, well, JT is gone.

I worry that the team thinks they can just lowball everybody because "hey, we're giving you an extension!" Obviously that can work with some younger guys, but with more established players like JT, you can go too low and insult them. I'd explore an extension with Brian Anderson after the season if he has another solid year - don't break the bank, but if you can get him on a team friendly deal, I think it could be worth it.

[lou]

Isn't that just the time the Marlins would sign someone and then they fall apart?

-------

As for the JT situation - I'm sure the truth lies in the middle of both parties - The numbers the Marlins supposedly offered probably are true, but were likely intended as a lowball starting point (hey let's throw it out there and see if he bites....if he does, they got themselves an awesome deal, if not, go back to the table. That said, it can also be insulting if they went too low (and it sounds like they did). On the flip side, the Posey number from JT's camp probably is also accurate - they're shooting for the moon too in the other direction. That fits in with Frisaro's comments that they were really far apart, and also supports the agent's comments about him likely being somewhere else next year since they're so far apart. What needs to happen in order for a chance at getting a deal done - primarily from the Marlins side - is for both sides to come back to some sort of reality in their demands/offers. The Marlins' offer was way too low, and JT's number was way too high. If they can both be more realistic, and come closer to the offers mentioned in this thread (I think they were like 4/70 or 5/80-85), then I think we could see something happen. But if both sides are just going to draw their line in the sand and not budge, well, JT is gone.

I worry that the team thinks they can just lowball everybody because "hey, we're giving you an extension!" Obviously that can work with some younger guys, but with more established players like JT, you can go too low and insult them. I'd explore an extension with Brian Anderson after the season if he has another solid year - don't break the bank, but if you can get him on a team friendly deal, I think it could be worth it.

If I was Realmuto's agent, I would respond with a fuck you offer also. They got the numbers right with Yelich (assuming Hill figured those out), so we know that they are capable of doing it, but you can't be jerks to your talent and offer 4/$40whatever to literally the best catcher in baseball in his prime. Know your place and the situation.

I agree if Anderson has a really big year, he may be a good candidate. You can probably wait 2 years for him though. If Urena has a big year, he may be a buyout candidate also. No one else probably makes sense for where they are.

- - - - - - - - - -

Don't forget the Marlins lowballed Realmuto in arbitration and fought over $600,000. They somehow won that case against him, but they really are not treating him how he should be treated for what he is doing.

[Lee Stone]

If I was Realmuto's agent, I would respond with a fuck you offer also. They got the numbers right with Yelich (assuming Hill figured those out), so we know that they are capable of doing it, but you can't be jerks to your talent and offer 4/$40whatever to literally the best catcher in baseball in his prime. Know your place and the situation.

I agree if Anderson has a really big year, he may be a good candidate. You can probably wait 2 years for him though. If Urena has a big year, he may be a buyout candidate also. No one else probably makes sense for where they are.

- - - - - - - - - -

Don't forget the Marlins lowballed Realmuto in arbitration and fought over $600,000. They somehow won that case against him, but they really are not treating him how he should be treated for what he is doing.

Really, Lou? The Marlins drafted the kid, paid him a bonus of $600,000 while the rest of us were borrowing money for college, taught him to catch, already paid him $4.5M in salary, helped put him in a position to make $6M in '19, maybe $9M in '20, then tens of millions in the future, and you figure his message to the Marlins should be, "Fuck you"? It's a tough world, that's all I can say.

[Erick]

In regards to Starlin Castro, I wouldn’t mind that.

[fish16]

I wouldnt be opposed to extending him a year but thats too much unless he's gonna become our stopgap SS for a couple years but his defense isnt good there.

[lou]

Really, Lou? The Marlins drafted the kid, paid him a bonus of $600,000 while the rest of us were borrowing money for college, taught him to catch, already paid him $4.5M in salary, helped put him in a position to make $6M in '19, maybe $9M in '20, then tens of millions in the future, and you figure his message to the Marlins should be, "Fuck you"? It's a tough world, that's all I can say.

You really don't get it.

So if your employer, after 8 1/2 years of hard work, after they unnecessarily fought you over $600,000 in arbitration, after you've risen to the level of reaching your monetary prime which is a clear 5 year window right now, told you, we like you but only want to keep you for 66% of your market value, just because we think we have leverage because you are at our mercy for 2 years, what would you say?

You'd say "Fuck you."

You would say that to your bosses face, knowing they aren't going to fire you because they can't because you are so valuable. And if they do fire you, it's the best day of your life.

You'd go to arbitration, just like Ozuna, and become a free agent in 2 years because you cannot sell yourself that short. It's an insult. A 4/$40something offer is egregious and a slap in the face. 5/$60 isn't much better. It is seriously devaluing your prime free agency years. Your 1 shot at the big deal.

I'm fine if they want to lowball with 5/$70 to get the ball rolling, that gets an eye roll but not audible laughter, but they are being asshats doing anything less. It's pathetic if those offers are true. Beyond pathetic. It's so pathetic, you don't even make the offer as it's clearly not even in the ballpark of what is acceptable or reasonable.

- - - - - - - - - -

As mentioned, the optics of this to other players is insane. Money cures all regarding future deals, but who wants to, by choice, go play in Miami all things considered if on top of the circus, they are also going to be terrible to you on the business side? Isn't this what the new ownership is supposed to do - change the narrative? Isn't that the cautious optimism we have?

You're going to treat the best catcher in baseball entering his prime like an asshole? I'm not saying give him the king's ransom, but how about understand the blessing of a player you got and show some respect?

If he doesn't want a reasonable 5 year deal, make that public, show the community hey we tried, he wants to go back home to Texas (he's from Oklahoma). What can you do? No harm no foul. This is the only guy in the next 3-4 years they probably have to treat this way. In fact they can still do this and negate this insane press mention. Maybe I'm all amped up over nothing? Do we want to place bets though?

[Namaste]

****NOTE TO EVERYONE ON THE BOARD***

My “this will not end well” post was meant as a response to the 933rd pissing contest between fish16 and Maddawg.

Not sure how my post ended up where it was.

[lou]

MLB.com has learned that the Marlins have been willing -- as a starting point in talks -- to strike a five- or six-year deal with Realmuto that would -- after covering his remaining two arbitration seasons -- have an average annual value (AAV) during his would-be free-agent years (starting in 2021) of at least $16 million. That's in the range of the $16.4 million AAV that Russell Martin got when he signed with the Blue Jays. Martin signed a five-year, $82 million deal with Toronto in 2015. https://www.mlb.com/news/marlins-kee...to/c-301433764

Unsurprisingly, more to the story.

So if we're assuming decent arbitration numbers for Realmuto ($6.5 2019, and $10.5 in 2020), which is reasonable as he is the first catcher to really get to arbitration at the top of the mountain.....

Article says "at least" $16 million, so we'll say $16 million on a 6 year deal, and let's generously think they bump that up to $17.5 million on a 5 year deal

Those are ballpark offers as follows, given some unknown fluctuation:

5/$68-70; or
6/$80ish

5/$70 is a solid lowball from the Marlins if this is suggestive that is what the deal is. That's where they should have "started." This shouldn't have been offer 3. Realmuto free agency years should be valued closer to $20 (less than Posey, but close given inflation. There is a lot of new BamTech, TV money floating around, etc.)

As I've been saying as a broken record, 5/$80 is the deal that works for everyone. If he refuses it, that's not on the Marlins. Maybe you go to $85 just to secure it as you have to pay an extra premium because "you're the Marlins." Let Realmuto get paid for 3 free agency years, but don't commit to a 4th. That's the happy medium.

[fish16]

I think it is more than anything that JT just doesnt want to be here for this rebuild in the prime of his career more than any realistic offer the marlins will make even if it is market value. Cant really blame him. This is as plain as day that both sides would be better off with a trade but the marlins have to at least make the effort to try and re-sign him.

[fish16]

Craig Mish

Verified account

@CraigMish
1m1 minute ago
More
Sources indicate Braves discussions with Marlins for Realmuto include a pkg built around 3B Austin Riley & P Michael Soroka. Marlins are still listening to offers from other clubs.

Not the biggest fan of Soroka instead of Anderson or Wright but getting Riley would be awesome and id imagine we get another one of their pitching prospects in that deal.