2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[lou]

To be fair, trading Yelich - and 5 years of control - was stupid and cheap.

The rest of them were fine moves to make.

They are positioning for 2021 at this point and they need 5 years of control for any new major person. It's that easy. Kluber makes no sense. McKenzie and Bieber do.

[fish16]

There’s nothing special about SP depth. For starters, there’s ZERO top tier SP in the system unless if you think Alcantara is that guy, but, realistically, nobody really thinks that. There’s zero top-tier anything in the system, really. Is there a can’t miss prospect in the system?

Compare our SP depth to the SP depth of other teams and you’ll see there’s nothing special going on.

I’m not criticizing the Stanton move, and sure I guess you can make a case that it’s too soon on the Yelich trade (even though if he remains a yearly MVP candidate under that contract, it really sucks regardless).

Either way, the core that had been put together before was more exciting than whatever we have now is my point. Maybe these players develop into something great, but you expecting that to happen as soon as 2020 is, again, truly delusional. I’d make a board bet with you but I know you don’t like to do those type of things, so whatever.

Who the fuck cares about how exciting that core was when they had 0 chance of ever coming close to playoff contention because of Loria's consistent treating of this organization as if we are a big market team and his consistent decimation of a farm system again because he had no idea what he was doing and no care for building a sustainable contender. I also think you're completely overrating how exciting that team really was.

In terms of the SP, we can agree to disagree, but aside from some of the top farm systems in baseball you wont find many teams with the quality depth we have. Many teams would love to have the depth we have. In terms of potential top tier SP, Alcantara has #2 potential, Neidert has #3 potential, and garrett and rogers are both super young but also are considered to have that #2/#3 potential. And again, a rotation of 5 mid rotation type guys would be very effective and this depth and the fact that it is team controlled and the rest of the players on the team will be team controlled for a while is the entire point of this rebuild, it allows you to build from scratch rather than having the contracts we had owed for the future and make smart free agent signings around a core of good young talent. Literally the entire point of the rebuild is to make this sustainable, and not every move will work out, but they are building this team exactly how it should be built in this market, which is an incredibly basic point for any organization to figure out but it is beyond huge for this particular organization to figure out after loria's dumbass tenure here.

[lou]

Who the fuck cares about how exciting that core was when they had 0 chance of ever coming close to playoff contention because of Loria's consistent treating of this organization as if we are a big market team and his consistent decimation of a farm system again because he had no idea what he was doing and thought building a sustainable contender. I also think you're completely overrating how exciting that team really was.

I generally agree with this, besides Yelich.

They were a losing team. Loria should have bought out Realmuto after 2016. That would have been exciting. I'm not excited about Stanton opting out and Ozuna going to free agency or Dee Gordon in general. They had no pitching. Maybe if Fernandez didn't die.

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I'm with Erick on the SP though. I'm hoping they get a # 3 and three #4s. Anything else is gravy.

An elite bullpen and an ace FA SP can fix that into a playoff staff though.

[Erick]

I already agreed that the other core was probably going nowhere.

What I find odd is fish16 being so certain that this completely unproven core is better and going somewhere. Just because Jeter might be better than Loria doesn’t mean anything. As you guys would say, “who the fuck cares” if he’s better than Loria? The current state of the franchise is garbage.

[lou]

Now that the feud is over - 14 teams want Realmuto https://fancredsports.com/Articles/j...catcher-jt-rea

[fish16]

I generally agree with this, besides Yelich.

They were a losing team. Loria should have bought out Realmuto after 2016. That would have been exciting. I'm not excited about Stanton opting out and Ozuna going to free agency or Dee Gordon in general. They had no pitching. Maybe if Fernandez didn't die.

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I'm with Erick on the SP though. I'm hoping they get a # 3 and three #4s. Anything else is gravy.

An elite bullpen and an ace FA SP can fix that into a playoff staff though.

With the SP's i think they get a few #3's and a few #4's and hope one of them turns out better than expected and becomes a #2. My optimism is not due to the sheer overwhelming talent of the SP's, its the depth they have and the likelihood that they already have in the organization at least 5 competent, major league caliber guys who are not only actual major league talents but are super cheap for 6 years. I think the sheer numbers will turn out to show we have at least 5 rotation pieces moving forward and the flexibility moving forward payroll wise that this allows us is very big. Imagine if we had a neidert, alcantara, or one of the other guys in 2015 and were able to rely on them moving forward rather than breaking the bank stupidly for chen. Its not just about the depth, its about the team building ramifications that the depth allows you moving forward.

[lou]

I already agreed that the other core was probably going nowhere.

What I find odd is fish16 being so certain that this completely unproven core is better and going somewhere. Just because Jeter might be better than Loria doesn’t mean anything. As you guys would say, “who the fuck cares” if he’s better than Loria? The current state of the franchise is garbage.

I don't think it is garbage, but they need to show some additional vision. What that is? I don't know. Machado would be the flat out best thing they could do for on and off the field. I think a good Realmuto trade and signing Castro for 4/$54 would be pretty good though. Those are smart longterm moves showing you have a multi-year plan besides just "getting young guys." Hammer IFA again, overspend on slot in the draft, etc.

Practically, until they sign a major (outside) free agent and the youth shows some progression, attitudes won't change. Things will be a lot different if they get three or four more "Anderson" breakouts this year.

[fish16]

I already agreed that the other core was probably going nowhere.

What I find odd is fish16 being so certain that this completely unproven core is better and going somewhere. Just because Jeter might be better than Loria doesn’t mean anything. As you guys would say, “who the fuck cares” if he’s better than Loria? The current state of the franchise is garbage.

Having a plan and sticking to that plan is infinitely better than what we had before and the importance of knowing your market and the most optimal way to operate your business cannot be put into words how important it is, especially in a non salary cap sport like baseball. This front office has already made it abundantly clear that they will be putting emphasis on the draft, IFA, and player development as well as just the overall professionalism of the organization as a whole. In addition they are actually reaching out to the community to build relationships with the community that Loria and Samson had completely soiled, and are clearly making an effort to bring in smart business people like Bowers to handle other stuff like the ballpark issues and other marketing concerns. You have to be blind to not see the million time improvement in the process being undertaken to rebuild this entire organization, and that more than any individual move or group of moves is why this team is infinitely better positioned now than at any time under Loria's tenure.

[lou]

With the SP's i think they get a few #3's and a few #4's and hope one of them turns out better than expected and becomes a #2. My optimism is not due to the sheer overwhelming talent of the SP's, its the depth they have and the likelihood that they already have in the organization at least 5 competent, major league caliber guys who are not only actual major league talents but are super cheap for 6 years. I think the sheer numbers will turn out to show we have at least 5 rotation pieces moving forward and the flexibility moving forward payroll wise that this allows us is very big. Imagine if we had a neidert, alcantara, or one of the other guys in 2015 and were able to rely on them moving forward rather than breaking the bank stupidly for chen. Its not just about the depth, its about the team building ramifications that the depth allows you moving forward.

And I hope you are right.

But, if they can get a 3, and three 4s, with an elite bullpen, that is probably a 15 WAR staff + a FA Ace and whatever you get from that guy. You're doing pretty good in that scenario.

These guys built the best bullpen in baseball in New York. You can plainly see they are doing that again. The Yankees are basically an ace (Severino), serviceable starters, and a killer bullpen. This is the model.

[fish16]

And I hope you are right.

But, if they can get a 3, and three 4s, with an elite bullpen, that is probably a 15 WAR staff + a FA Ace and whatever you get from that guy. You're doing pretty good in that scenario.

These guys built the best bullpen in baseball in New York. You can plainly see they are doing that again. The Yankees are basically an ace (Severino), serviceable starters, and a killer bullpen. This is the model.

I just think a 3 and 3 4's should be the baseline expectation out of a group that already includes Urena (a high end #4 who likely peaks at a solid #3), Alcantara, Niedert, lopez, Gallen, Richards, Smith, Rogers, Garrett, Cabrera, Yamamoto, Guzman, Dugger. Its not that i'm supremely confident in any 1 of them becoming great, but i think the sheer depth and the fact that so many of them are high floor rather than high ceiling guys makes me think you're selling them a bit short.

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In other news Frisaro says RP also will be dealt with at the winter meetings. Hopefully we sign 2-3 fliers on bullpen arms and then depending on what we look like after the JT trade a corner OF and the rest just spring training fliers and see what sticks after next year for 2020 and beyond.

[lou]

I don't see it, but I hope you are right.

Regardless, if this is the 2021 staff:


________, Alcantara, Urena, Neidert, and Pablo/Yamamoto/Dugger/Whoever* lock down the rotation. (Ideally, Realmuto gets a SP here that is closer to Alcantara/Urena quality so you keep taking shots at getting the "3").

And the have a murderous RHP crew - Guzman, Steckenrider, Richards, E. Cabrera, Gallen

And a murderous LHP crew - Ca. Smith, and they need higher end lefties but they can get them next two years (or keep Conley)

That is what I'm talking about. Post-2020 free agency has DeGrom, Ray, Hendricks, Bauer, Salazar, Paxton, Gausman, Teheran, all 32 and under. Someone there is going to be an ace in three years. That is a lot of arm talent to choose from.

That's where I see this going, absent a true unexpected breakout.

(Rogers and Garret are too far away to put in these plans*)

[rmc523]

With the SP's i think they get a few #3's and a few #4's and hope one of them turns out better than expected and becomes a #2. My optimism is not due to the sheer overwhelming talent of the SP's, its the depth they have and the likelihood that they already have in the organization at least 5 competent, major league caliber guys who are not only actual major league talents but are super cheap for 6 years. I think the sheer numbers will turn out to show we have at least 5 rotation pieces moving forward and the flexibility moving forward payroll wise that this allows us is very big. Imagine if we had a neidert, alcantara, or one of the other guys in 2015 and were able to rely on them moving forward rather than breaking the bank stupidly for chen. Its not just about the depth, its about the team building ramifications that the depth allows you moving forward.

You mean like Heaney, DeSclafani, etc. etc.?

[lou]

You mean like Heaney, DeSclafani, etc. etc.?

Well, to be fair, Heaney was in the Gordon move which wasn't terrible...

But it would be pretty fucking nice to have "1" of DeScalfani, Castillo, and Paddack right now

[fish16]

You mean like Heaney, DeSclafani, etc. etc.?

Yup, 2 guys we invested resources in and then traded after minimal time at the big league level for us because Jeffery Loria yet again could not figure out the relative value of a good young pitcher under team control and a mediocre veteran pitcher whose name he knows but isnt actually all that good. See Latos, Cashner, Cosart, Volquez, Chen, and any number of other veterans we added. the biggest issue with loria's entire tenure is that he operated seemingly without knowledge of the value of having good players under team control. His willingness to continually give up prospects for mediocre veterans is what necessitated the rebuild entirely in my opinion. that and no longer having Jose alive to either sign long term or deal for a huge package of assets.

i mean like Heaney, Desclafani, Francis Martes became a top prospect, Paddack, Luis Castillo, Trevor williams, and many others. the amount of quality prospects with years of team control left that we dealt for blatantly obvious stupid short term fixes with guys who werent even good to begin with is absurd. IT is the single biggest reason we needed to do a full rebuild because after years of doing this we simply had nothing left in the minors to complement a core of good young hitters. It also completely ruined our ability to deal with even the slightest of injury which is why every season we had at least that 1 month where we completely shit the bed and ruin the season. How many years in a row did it happen?

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Well, to be fair, Heaney was in the Gordon move which wasn't terrible...

But it would be pretty fucking nice to have "1" of DeScalfani, Castillo, and Paddack right now

Trading them is one thing, its what we traded them for that is the worst. Heaney should never have been traded but at least you got some value in dee even though we traded way too many other minor pieces in that deal that would have helped with depth in the future. Desclafani we got a terrible half year out of latos for. Paddack we got Rodney who was just about the most obvious regression candidate ive ever seen. Castillo at least got us a few decent years of straily but still there is no reason why we continually wanted to give up these cost controlled talented guys in the miami market for baseball. Its just absolutely criminal mismanagement.

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i actually just checked out Trevor williams stats from this past year. I knew he was solid but didnt realize how good he was this year. That's an absolute loria specialty, trading a recent 2nd round pick with potential for a coach who not only is no longer with the organization a few years later, but it would not surprise me in the slightest if loria also gave him an extension for jeter to have to pay after loria leaves town.

So to recap- we traded a recent 2nd round pick shortly after drafting him for a coach who not only isnt here anymore just a short time later, but also reportedly caused a shit ton of problems last year throwing a temper tantrum in the draft room ( i think i have the correct guy) and flat out not showing up one of the days in the draft in protest. All for a pitcher who has now had back to back seasons of around 2.5 WAR according to fangraphs. What a dumpster fire of an organization loria ran.

[sports24/7]

I don't know if it's that they'd plan on trading for Nimmo in order to immediately acquire someone else because they don't like Nimmo. I'd assume they'd be happy to keep him if he is indeed a main piece for Realmuto, BUT, they may feel they can flip him for something they value MORE, that's what we're seeing.

In other words, I'd assume it's like this - they like him to acquire him, and wouldn't have a problem keeping him. They don't have to trade him, but CAN if they get other pieces they like.

That makes sense. Because he's a proven MLB player, you could more easily flip him for prospects at a position of need, rather than another prospect. That's different than feeling like you need to flip him because he plays a crowded position.