2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[Ralph]

Miami is looking at Luis Cessa from NYY as a LR/Spot SP option

Also have gotten some calls on DD. Looks like they might deal him for low level guy. The $$ is an issue for teams however

Like him as a Caleb Smith type. Honestly probably like him more than I liked Caleb Smith when they acquired him last year.

[emkayseven]

Tjfla, do you just make things up and pass them on as facts? Josh James is a ML RP which is why Miami like JB AND Martin more
James enjoys a 55 rating compared to 50's for the other two. He has an effective developing change. He had three starts and three relief appearances for Houston in September - effective in both roles. According to MLB.com, Martin and Bukauskas are the more likely relief pitchers.

And just like that, Lee liked MLB.com prospect ratings

[Erick]

You guys are looking at minor league relief pitching as a market inefficiency but it really isn’t. In order for it to be a market inefficiency, other teams have to be ignoring it. Literally every team in baseball is looking for guys who throw 100 or have good #’s in the minors who could maybe be of value in the bullpen.

The Marlins strategy, if you can call it that, is not special or unique at all. What would be great is if these guys develop into something, but literally every team does this every offseason.

The Marlins did this type of stuff when Loria was here too. Again, it’s nothing special.

[fish16]

You guys are looking at minor league relief pitching as a market inefficiency but it really isn’t. In order for it to be a market inefficiency, other teams have to be ignoring it. Literally every team in baseball is looking for guys who throw 100 or have good #’s in the minors who could maybe be of value in the bullpen.

The Marlins strategy, if you can call it that, is not special or unique at all. What would be great is if these guys develop into something, but literally every team does this every offseason.

The Marlins did this type of stuff when Loria was here too. Again, it’s nothing special.

Market inefficiency refers to the value that it takes to get them, not the amount of teams who are looking for them. Something doesnt have to be unique for it to be a market inefficiency if everyone in the market is continuously undervaluing it.

[lou]

Out of right field thought here, but the Mariners are open to moving Segura. He makes 4/$56 (+$1 million buyout), option 1/$17 after that (so could be 5/$72). It is for his age 29-32/33 seasons. He's had a 5.1, 3.0, and 3.8 WAR seasons in a row. He has a full no-trade clause and from the Dominican, so presumably the Marlins are one of the only places he would accept a trade if he is going to dictate a location. I'd assume he'd want to be (much) closer to home. He's probably an average 3 WAR player over these years with a high defensive floor, meaning his surplus value is probably $60-70 million. Basically, slightly less valuable than Realmuto.

In a trade scenario, this is something like Monte/Scott, E. Cabrera, and sending them back their third tier guys C. Torres and R. Dugger. Maybe you have to upgrade Dugger to Yamamoto/Gallen to get it done, include a little IFA money, and/or include Rojas.

I'd be open to the Marlins doing something like this as that is Segura in his prime years for a good free agency price. I think the Marlins can unload one of their bigger OF prospects and some of the secondary guys if it locks down SS for the foreseeable future. I don't think anyone is crying losing that foursome given they just plucked VVM and can withstand sending out some pitching (especially if the Realmuto trade nets a good SP candidate, and presumably Castro/Conley/Straily turn into more RP candidates).

Just saying, this could be a smart move to lock down SS which is an organizational problem. 5 years of control is 5 years of control, and the price is right as that is not paying Manny or Xander double that for more years in free agency. Likewise, it is a good PR move so fans can hopefully understand even if they trade Realmuto, they still have a plan to contend soon. It's all about the control years.

I'd at least make the phone call and see if they like Monte or Scott which would be the ones you'd dangle.

[Lee Stone]

I had a nearly identical thought last night. Harrison, Brinson, Gallen were names I thought about, but Conner Scott works for me too - I was underwhelmed by both his selection and inaugural performance. I'd be happy to see the Marlins acquire Segura - but also feel confident the team will not make that call. Then again, I value a hitting SS more than most probably.

Saw an article on mlb.com this morning that suggested a package of Ian Anderson, Touki Touissant and Kyle Muller for Realmuto. I'd take it.

[fish16]

Dont think Segura is good enough or young enough to justify trading prospects to fill a hole yet. He's also declined slightly each of the last 2 years with the bat following his breakout year.

[fish16]

I had a nearly identical thought last night. Harrison, Brinson, Gallen were names I thought about, but Conner Scott works for me too - I was underwhelmed by both his selection and inaugural performance. I'd be happy to see the Marlins acquire Segura - but also feel confident the team will not make that call. Then again, I value a hitting SS more than most probably.

Saw an article on mlb.com this morning that suggested a package of Ian Anderson, Touki Touissant and Kyle Muller for Realmuto. I'd take it.

christ. its crazy how awful of a gm youd be. You'd not only go and decimate any farm system within a year but the only guys you'd keep are AAAA players.

[tjfla]

Tjfla, do you just make things up and pass them on as facts? Josh James is a ML RP which is why Miami like JB AND Martin more
James enjoys a 55 rating compared to 50's for the other two. He has an effective developing change. He had three starts and three relief appearances for Houston in September - effective in both roles. According to MLB.com, Martin and Bukauskas are the more likely relief pitchers.

Just make up facts.

Saying what scouts say actually. I like Josh James and Martin as SP and JB as a RP but teams/scouts dont see it that way for the Majors. Its the same with Guzman and Yamamoto,people think they will be ML RP

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[QUOTE=Lee Stone;395671]I had a nearly identical thought last night. Harrison, Brinson, Gallen were names I thought about, but Conner Scott works for me too - I was underwhelmed by both his selection and inaugural performance. I'd be happy to see the Marlins acquire Segura - but also feel confident the team will not make that call. Then again, I value a hitting SS more than most probably.

Saw an article on mlb.com this morning that suggested a package of Ian Anderson, Touki Touissant and Kyle Muller for Realmuto. I'd take it.[/QUOTE]


So pretty much what I "made up" the past 2 weeks?? Lucky u saw if finally on MLB.com and like it

What they want from Atlanta is Soroka OR Anderson,Riley,Wentz OR Muller,1 or 2 OTHER prospects. They want either Riley or Contreras(A Bat) in the deal

[fish16]

Ya they would need Riley in a braves deal. While it would be nice to be able to go all SP in a deal in hopes we can find the ace, we have too many needs in the lineup long term and we already have a lot of depth we need to evaluate at SP this year. Id go for one high ceiling SP in any deal, maybe 2, but all hitters from there.

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Also, I keep seeing you mention Anderson and Soroka, im guessing Kyle Wright is off the table? He'd be my top choice from them followed by Anderson and then Soroka.

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Jake Gatewood from the brewers organization tore his ACL. Still rule 5 available so maybe it makes sense to take him and stash him and hope he's ready to play in the bigs come 2020.

[tjfla]

Ya they would need Riley in a braves deal. While it would be nice to be able to go all SP in a deal in hopes we can find the ace, we have too many needs in the lineup long term and we already have a lot of depth we need to evaluate at SP this year. Id go for one high ceiling SP in any deal, maybe 2, but all hitters from there.

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Also, I keep seeing you mention Anderson and Soroka, im guessing Kyle Wright is off the table? He'd be my top choice from them followed by Anderson and then Soroka.

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Jake Gatewood from the brewers organization tore his ACL. Still rule 5 available so maybe it makes sense to take him and stash him and hope he's ready to play in the bigs come 2020.

Honestly no clue. I know they liked Soroka alot but he had shoulder issues. I heard they liked all 3 but Atlanta wants to keep Wright and Miami likes the other 2 as much?? 1 of them will likely be the "centerpiece"

Ya they need Riley OR Contreras in the deal

Any deal with Atlanta will be Soroka/Anderson/Wright as centerpiece,Riley OR Contreras,Muller/Wentz/Bryse Wilson(Heard Miami likes Muller) and then probably mid level arm like Ricardo Sanchez/Tucker Davidson/Tarnok as "overpay"

If they can get Touki in that "2nd Pitcher Group" I would be cool with Anderson/Riley/Touki

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He tore it in July so he would be back June/July. I would take him with our 2nd Rule 5 pick.

Give me a SS in 1st Rd to be UT guy then 2nd Rd a 1B(Gatewood/Ockimey/Dermis Garcia) or C(Dom Nunez/Ali Sanchez) and see if they can stick

[lou]

I don't think that MLB article is off. I would imagine the Atlanta deal is something like:

Soroka/Wright/Riley/Anderson
Touki/Gohara/B. Wilson
Allard/Wentz/Contreras/Muller

That is really solid for Realmuto's surplus value. I think Anderson, Touki, and Muller is fine. It's pitching heavy, but who cares. You can trade pitching. However, getting Contreras back makes a lot of sense for everyone.

[fish16]

I think we'll end up throwing in a bullpen piece to get the one top pitcher in anderson/soroka/wright in addition to riley and then a 2nd lesser pitching prospect or contreras if we want to address Catcher that way

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Thats the only way i see us getting a better package from the braves than the astros. I also dont think we should go after a 2nd pitcher that is similar to a lot of the ones we already have. If i were in charge id go hard after the 1 ace type pitcher the organization needs and then have the rest of the deal be hitters. Braves can do that for us and the Astros can certainly do that. I want Yordan Alvarez very badly in this organization.

[lou]

I definitely agree throwing in Conley to upgrade a player or two is a good idea. They could probably get a good 5-2 for those two.

I would be good with Alvarez, pretty much any two of Martin/C. Perez/H. Perez/JB/Alcala/James, Nova, and Stubbs for those two. Makes a lot of sense for the Astros and Marlins.

Maybe they want Straily too and take back AJ Reed. That would be a good guy to take a flyer on.

I think this will be fine when all is said and done.

[fish16]

I definitely agree throwing in Conley to upgrade a player or two is a good idea. They could probably get a good 5-2 for those two.

I would be good with Alvarez, pretty much any two of Martin/C. Perez/H. Perez/JB/Alcala/James, Nova, and Stubbs for those two. Makes a lot of sense for the Astros and Marlins.

Maybe they want Straily too and take back AJ Reed. That would be a good guy to take a flyer on.

I think this will be fine when all is said and done.

Agreed, just a shame that the inevitable narrative is going to be us dumping off another star player despite that being the clear right move to make given where we are in our rebuild, how many years he has left under team control, and his unwillingness to sign long term.

Yordan, Martin, Bukauskus, Nova, Stubbs, for JT, Straily, and Conley/Steck.