2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[tjfla]

No shit the Astros turned down a whitley for paxton trade. Who would be stupid enough to make that trade? This front office is beyond foolish if they take the braves off the table simply because they are in the same division. it does nothing but hurt your ability to rebuild this team as quickly as possible.

I dont think they have taken them off the table. I thinks its more like Atlanta is Plan C(If they were in AL East they would be Plan A)

Plan A is Houston
Plan B is Listen to Other Offers to see if Anything Happens(Oak/Cubs/LA Teams) but Doubtful
Plan C is Call Atlanta back and see if they will overpay using the "Same Division" idea

Miami has until the End of the Winter Meetings so not really in a rush yet

Also think some fear from Denbo that if they trade JT to Atlanta he will sign with them and will have to see him 20 times a year for next 7 years and Braves will win a WS or 2 because of him

Its like with Ozuna/Yelich/Stanton deals. They wanted to trade them to teams they would barely see

[fish16]

I dont think they have taken them off the table. I thinks its more like Atlanta is Plan C(If they were in AL East they would be Plan A)

Plan A is Houston
Plan B is Listen to Other Offers to see if Anything Happens(Oak/Cubs/LA Teams) but Doubtful
Plan C is Call Atlanta back and see if they will overpay using the "Same Division" idea

Miami has until the End of the Winter Meetings so not really in a rush yet

Also think some fear from Denbo that if they trade JT to Atlanta he will sign with them and will have to see him 20 times a year for next 7 years and Braves will win a WS or 2 because of him

Its like with Ozuna/Yelich/Stanton deals. They wanted to trade them to teams they would barely see

Thats the exact problem. this is beyond stupid thinking for any possible trade partner, let alone with the team with the top 3 farm system in baseball thats strengths in prospects meet your exact prospect needs (high ceiling SP, 3b, C). It is just beyond stupid and pointless. If the braves dont get JT, theyll use their absurdly good farm system (or tons of money to spend) to get another great player, and then all youve done is take a trade partner away from the bidding table, thereby hurting your leverage.

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Worry about your own team, get the best possible deal, and then let the chips fall where they may. If you build this up like the braves did and like we are attempting to do, you can make a similar move in the future from a prospect surplus.

[Lee Stone]

I'm surely the only person who thinks it, but I believe that prospect ratings/rankings are significantly effected by organizational bias. After all, ratings are highly subjective. If you took that big batch of Atlanta farmhand pitchers and put them in the Marlins system, how many would be holding down spots in the top 100? On to fresh thoughts ...

[fish16]

I'm surely the only person who thinks it, but I believe that prospect ratings/rankings are significantly effected by organizational bias. After all, ratings are highly subjective. If you took that big batch of Atlanta farmhand pitchers and put them in the Marlins system, how many would be holding down spots in the top 100? On to fresh thoughts ...

well, if theres anything youve proven to be its an expert on player development and prospect evaluation, so this is definitely something we should consider.

[lou]

This dance happens every year. Articles and tweets about posturing, people get mad that what they are doing is dumb, nothing turns out to be true as it's all about creating leverage, rinse, repeat.

It's so early in the offseason none of this matters. If Realmuto isn't resigned, they will absolutely move him to Atlanta if that's the best package. Let them say whatever until then in the hopes that the Braves whiff on everyone else and get a little desperate. Rinse, repeat.

Houston, Atlanta, Oakland, LAD, Colorado, maybe even LAA. Someone is jumping in the pool as they all can't sign Ramos and Grandal or trade for Gomes (if he is even available). He's a huge upgrade for any of them, is signable for his prime, and they all have the minor league juice to try and win now.

[tjfla]

This dance happens every year. Articles and tweets about posturing, people get mad that what they are doing is dumb, nothing turns out to be true as it's all about creating leverage, rinse, repeat.

It's so early in the offseason none of this matters. If Realmuto isn't resigned, they will absolutely move him to Atlanta if that's the best package. Let them say whatever until then in the hopes that the Braves whiff on everyone else and get a little desperate. Rinse, repeat.

Houston, Atlanta, Oakland, LAD, Colorado, maybe even LAA. Someone is jumping in the pool as they all can't sign Ramos and Grandal or trade for Gomes (if he is even available). He's a huge upgrade for any of them, is signable for his prime, and they all have the minor league juice to try and win now.

SPOT ON. Miami will keep telling Atlanta that they won't trade within the NL East(drive price up some) but if its the best package then they will trade him there.

They really like what Houston and Atlanta has. If they offer close to same then likely will go to Houston(to keep him out of the NL East) but if the trick works Atlanta will OVERPAY and he will end up there.

Really the "Keep Him out of the NL East" excuse only works if Houston offers close to what Atlanta does OR Oakland offers Luzardo/Murphy/Baretto/others and #38 pick(which I doubt they will)

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Its the same as last year when they told Washington they won't trade in the NL East UNLESS they get Robles AND Kieboom Brothers.

They WILL but for the exact price they want

[sports24/7]

Really the "Keep Him out of the NL East" excuse only works if Houston offers close to what Atlanta does

This is my problem. If Houston offers a deal that's close, but not as good, you take the Atlanta deal. You take the best deal. Period. The only way you take another is if it's better, or the same. But if it's even a little better than anything else, not trading him to Atlanta is flat out dumb. Realmuto isn't going to be the singular reason Atlanta beats you anyway, and that's ignoring that you will now have some of their assets playing against them. This line of reasoning is so shortsighted. If it's anything other than posturing, it's a mistake

[lou]

Updated 40 man projection.

Note, this is what I think they do, not what I would want them to do (although the last few spots are just debates on RHP relievers so whatever):

SP - Urena, Chen, Straily, Alcantara, Lopez, Ca. Smith (6)

RHP - Brigham, M. Gonzalez, Graves, Guerrero, E. Hernandez, J. Fernandez, Richards, Steckenrider, Wittgren, Yamamoto (10)

LHP - Conley, Garcia, Peters, Mills, Quijada (5)

C - Realmuto, Wallach (2)

IF - Anderson, Castro, Cooper, Diaz, Dietrich, O’Brien, Prado, Riddle, Rivera, Rojas, Schales, Twine (12)

OF -Brinson, Dean, Harrison, Lee, Sierra (5)
=40

-They will protect Wallach and Rivera because they like them
-They will protect Twine because of course they will. This is a Mike Hill pick.
-I'm pretty sure Guzman doesn't need to be protected, but if I am wrong, he goes in over someone like Twine/Wallach
-I think they protect Schales and hope he is another Anderson
-I think they keep all the lefties with Mills and Quijada as they are a little lower on them at the moment
-C. Torres is exposed, but no one is putting him on a 25 man roster a whole season so I think they risk that. If there is a threat, he needs to go on
-This exposes most notably K. Keller, B. Meyer, and T. Kinley, all of which they could lose, but they won't care as they legitimately have a lot of RHP arms. They have Neidert, Gallen, Eveld, Beggs, Dugger, Hock, and others coming who all don't need to be protected but are coming quick. They'll start jettisoning those middle reliever guys who don't exhibit top end traits as there is real depth here
-Galloway, Poteet, other Kinley, Norwood, and a few other guys are unprotected. Maybe they lose someone here

Have to see who they select in the 40 man, but I would hope guys like Wallach, Rivera, Prado, and Twine are easy drops for them. I kind of don't want to lose any of those pitchers for the time being.

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They really need to hammer waivers and Rule V for backup catchers, 1B/OF, and 4th OF types. The OF is really a mess.

[Lee Stone]

Outfield a mess. Infield merely awful.

[fish16]

Marlins DFA Braxton Lee and Dillon Peters and leave C. Torres, Hernandez, and McKenzie Mills off but everyone else who needed to be on was put on. Surprising to see Peters but im assuming there was some injury stuff there this year and his stuff might have fallen off cause he was a trainwreck in AAA. Braxton Lee was never anything special and Brian Miller will take his spot. Mills might be taken in the rule 5 but no way C. Torres or Hernandez is. Not sure why we feel the need to continue having useless Yadiel fucking Rivera and Wallach remain on the 40 man when there isnt a snowballs chance in hell they get claimed but whatever.

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Ben Meyer also designated for assignment. Clearly moving on from a few guys from the previous regime.

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And apparently guzman did need to be added btw because he was also added along with the expected guys and Kyle Keller and Quijada. No word on schales.

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Why the fuck did we add jordon holloway to the 40 man. some of these moves are real head scratchers. Who the hell is taking him when he barely pitched last year and hasnt pitched above full season A ball?

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I hadnt realized how good Keller's K numbers are. If he can keep the walks down he looks like another good bullpen arm. Him and Quijada are good additions to the roster.

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Kolek also not added to the roster fwiw. No one claiming him either.

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Mish also saying that they wont go to arbitration with Dietrich so he will likely be traded soon or (unlikely) DFA'd if they cant find a partner.

[tjfla]

Lee was an easy DFA as Sierra is the 4th OF and Brian Miller will be up in 2020 likely. No need to carry him

Peters was DFA because they like Quijada more as a RP than Peters and have Lee/Kinley in AAA too

Surprised about Meyer but tons of other options in AAA plus we will likely sign 2 or 3 vets to minor league deals

Not really surprising about Torres/Hernandez/Schales/Twine. Doubtful anyone takes them-maybe Torres but not other 3

The surprise is Jordan Holloway. Not sure anyone would have taken a chance on him-very weird but if he sucks in A Ball just DFA if u need the spot

They can still DFA Rivera,Galloway,Wallach,Kinley,Graves if spots are needed. DD,Straily,JT will likely be traded and Fernandez will be 60 Day when season starts. 8 spots could be open very easily

As for Mills I heard the reason he was NOT protected is while they like him they think he is year away and like Dylan Lee more as a RP option for 2019. Possible he gets taken but even if he is they don't think he will make a ML team

[fish16]

Ya i doubt mills gets taken. One thing we are fine with long term is bullpen options, just weird some of the moves they made today. I really think it has a lot to do with moving on from guys from the last regime that flamed out in the first year of this regime. I doubt Lee or Meyer get claimed but i could see a team taking a flier on Peters.

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I highly doubt it, but if Torres gets taken by a team this would be a huge mistake. Hopefully there isnt a team like the padres from a few years back who are willing to just burn a roster spot all year for a guy who isnt ready or close to being ready.

[tjfla]

Likely will take 1 bat in Rule 5 and are looking hard at a few DFA guys. C,MIF,and guy who can play 1B/OF are top of list

A guy they will likely look at is SS/2B Jonathan Arauz(Houston) and Brito/Gomez(Philly)

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp...tting/2018/ALL

They like 1B Ockimey(Bos)/Gatewood(Milw), SS Brito/Gomez(Philly),RHP Kaprelian(Oak-Denbo drafted) and few Boston arms(Diaz/Raudes) also

[fish16]

The guy colorado just DFA'd Jordan PAtterson is super interesting too, although im assuming a lot of his production is due to where their AAA team is.

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If kaprelian is available in the rule 5 we will 100% go after him.

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Im excited to see these lists of best available rule 5 guys. this is where we have a real chance to get a few low key guys who become parts of the future.

[tjfla]

Ya i doubt mills gets taken. One thing we are fine with long term is bullpen options, just weird some of the moves they made today. I really think it has a lot to do with moving on from guys from the last regime that flamed out in the first year of this regime. I doubt Lee or Meyer get claimed but i could see a team taking a flier on Peters.

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I highly doubt it, but if Torres gets taken by a team this would be a huge mistake. Hopefully there isnt a team like the padres from a few years back who are willing to just burn a roster spot all year for a guy who isnt ready or close to being ready.

I wouldnt be surprised if we were that team this year actually. Take a young SS like Arauz or Philly MIF and let them be the UT guy over Rivera. All 4 could be ML starters down the line but are only 20/21. We like all of them and have asked for them in earlier trades

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The guy colorado just DFA'd Jordan PAtterson is super interesting too, although im assuming a lot of his production is due to where their AAA team is.

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If kaprelian is available in the rule 5 we will 100% go after him.

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Im excited to see these lists of best available rule 5 guys. this is where we have a real chance to get a few low key guys who become parts of the future.

If Kaprelian is available I would have no issue taking a flier on him as a 2nd Rd Rule 5 guy. Put him on the 60 Day and then call Kaprelian(if healthy) and Fernandez up in June like they did this year