2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[flamarlins93]

JT, Conley/Steck, and Straily for Tucker, Martin/Bukauskus, Stubbs, Nova.

These other guys should have value as well. It seem like every trade that is mentioned you want to throw in one or two extra guys. In this case you want to give either Conley or Steckenrider plus Straily for Nova. JT alone should be able to bring back Tucker plus a pitcher and a backup catcher. I don't see why you see these guys as having absolutely no value. I think Steckenrider has at least 4 years of control and if he isn't overused like he was last year he is a pretty good cheap pen arm. Adding multiple guys in addition to JT would kinda kill the value of the trade coming back to me. JT and Conley in my eyes should net you Tucker, Martin, Nova and one of Schroeder or Joe Perez. I could care less about taking back another catcher if it just for the sake of doing so I would rather see them get another prospect that has a higher ceiling.

[Lee Stone]

After being teased with the idea of a Nimmo/Giminez return for JT, scoring only Tucker would be a major downer.

Andujar for Realmuto straight up ... I wouldn't turn that down. Andujar showed poor defense at 3B, but based on what I've read, his speed and plus arm would be wasted at 1B. RF may be his destiny. Afterall, Anderson made the transition to OF without problems.

[lou]

These other guys should have value as well. It seem like every trade that is mentioned you want to throw in one or two extra guys. In this case you want to give either Conley or Steckenrider plus Straily for Nova. JT alone should be able to bring back Tucker plus a pitcher and a backup catcher. I don't see why you see these guys as having absolutely no value. I think Steckenrider has at least 4 years of control and if he isn't overused like he was last year he is a pretty good cheap pen arm. Adding multiple guys in addition to JT would kinda kill the value of the trade coming back to me. JT and Conley in my eyes should net you Tucker, Martin, Nova and one of Schroeder or Joe Perez. I could care less about taking back another catcher if it just for the sake of doing so I would rather see them get another prospect that has a higher ceiling.

They actually have 5 years of control on Steckenrider, and assuming he doesn't get mass saves, easily has a $20+ million surplus value. If he becomes an elite 1-1.25 WAR average RP, he ticks up. Conley they have for 4 years, and is a super 2. He's less valuable as his arbitration will be higher as he accrued more "SP" innings earlier, and will have the 4th arbitration year. He's probably worth around $12+ million in surplus value.

Those money amounts don't seem like a lot, but FG gives FV50 hitters a $28 million valuation and pitchers $21 million, give or take. Basically, Steckenrider is worth Alcantara, Guzman, or Neidert straight up, and Conley is getting you Gallen/Yamamoto and Miller/C. Torres in a 2-1.

As a trade kicker to entice someone to throw in that one extra/upgraded guy, these guys make huge sense to throw in to bridge a value gap. Especially for contenders who all want the elite bullpens. The Marlins don't need these guys if they can get better longterm assets.

Tucker ($55), Martin ($21), Nova ($8), and Schroeder/Perez ($5), is basically $90 million in surplus value.

Realmuto may only be worth $50 million in surplus value (4 WAR x 2 years), but it becomes a bit complicated because he did a 4.8 last year (would raise to $60 million) if you feel that is his true output, and gets further complicated because he is an obvious buyout candidate, and if you get him for 5 years, you can easily raise this to $80 (4 WAR) to $100+ (4.5 WAR). Personally, I think we fall into overvaluing your own team's assets but demanding he is worth $100, so I think you split this high/low and just call him a $75 million surplus value. That also seems fair to me as he is one of 3-4 elite catchers in baseball right now and scarcity does count even if a surplus value analysis doesn't really count for that.

So, you add in Conley, and I think your trade package generally works. I would do it too.

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BTW, Reddick maybe has a $5 surplus value. If the Astros value dumping payroll, add him to that, switch Conley to Steckenrider, and you're giving the Astros two trade kickers - clearing $26 million with Reddick and Steckenrider.

They have money for Cruz, and to absorb Bumgarner's salary if/when they trade for him.

Realmuto and Conley would make around $20 million 2019/2020, so the Marlins are really just adding $6 million here. Reddick is perfect as they need a veteran outfielder and he is a deadline flip for a future Gallen/Yamamoto type arm.

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After being teased with the idea of a Nimmo/Giminez return for JT, scoring only Tucker would be a major downer.

Andujar for Realmuto straight up ... I wouldn't turn that down. Andujar showed poor defense at 3B, but based on what I've read, his speed and plus arm would be wasted at 1B. RF may be his destiny. Afterall, Anderson made the transition to OF without problems.

Well they'd need more for Tucker, and it wouldn't be a major downer at all.

You can probably make the argument Andujar is worth around Realmuto, but you probably need two other guys thrown in to account for his defensive uncertainty. He loses some value if he is put at 1B. Something like E. Cabrera (FV45+ RP prospect) and an outside top 20 flyer, like Eveld, probably bridges that gap.

If they got him, you put him at 3B and see if he can handle it defensively, as he has a higher offensive ceiling than Anderson. If he works out, great, if he doesn't, you start thinking of a positional shift in the summer as we see how Anderson/Brinson/Monte/VVM do.

[Lee Stone]

Hats off to Houston on Brantley signing - so much better than Philly and McCutchen. Astros are just such a savvy organization.

[lou]

Frisario says Astros are back "in." - https://twitter.com/JoeFrisaro/statu...46198942359553

I'm ready for this to be over.

[Lee Stone]

Frisario says Astros are back "in." - https://twitter.com/JoeFrisaro/statu...46198942359553

I'm ready for this to be over.

Realmuto and Urena for Tucker and Alvarez and Chirinos and James.

[sports24/7]

After being teased with the idea of a Nimmo/Giminez return for JT, scoring only Tucker would be a major downer.

Andujar for Realmuto straight up ... I wouldn't turn that down. Andujar showed poor defense at 3B, but based on what I've read, his speed and plus arm would be wasted at 1B. RF may be his destiny. Afterall, Anderson made the transition to OF without problems.

I'd rather a Tucker deal. There's more projection there, but you're talking about a potential star player coming back instead of a couple of good players. The filler in both deals are/were probably the same. Andujar would still be my preference, but Tucker could end up being just as good, or maybe even better with more defensive value.

[fauowls44]

Frisario says Astros are back "in." - https://twitter.com/JoeFrisaro/statu...46198942359553

I'm ready for this to be over.

Agreed. I thought this would have been over at the winter meetings. JT to Houston makes so much sense that they should just pull the trigger already. The Marlins can get an elite prospect in Tucker, a couple of other pieces, and a stopgap at C.

[lou]

Agreed. I thought this would have been over at the winter meetings. JT to Houston makes so much sense that they should just pull the trigger already. The Marlins can get an elite prospect in Tucker, a couple of other pieces, and a stopgap at C.

They are definitely a good matchup. They could roll out this easily:

Realmuto
Gurriel
Altuve
Correa
Bregman
Brantley
Springer
______/Kemp
DH - Cruz (they want to sign him)
B - Chirinos, Diaz, Kemp. (These guys literally play every position)

Send over the Marlins - Tucker, Martin, Nova, Stassi, and Reddick for Realmuto/Steckenrider
Trade their other out of options guys with some value - Marisnick, T. White - for some minor league option eligible play now OF replacements
Get a cheap and legitimate 1 year platoon OF to help Kemp, call it a day.

That is a monstrous position core. That's a 30-35 WAR position core easy. They need to go for it with Verlander/Cole still under team control and kicking ass.

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They'd also have the juice to trade minor league pitching (some of JB/Perez/Perez) for Bumgarner to really put the cherry on top.

All while holding onto Whitley and Alvarez who could be huge mid-season additions.

I love the Astros.

[Lee Stone]

Don't get why they'd take on Reddick contract. It's of neutral value (salary to performance) and Reddick is trending downward. Unless Alvarez is involved also, can't see the Marlins paying Reddick.

[lou]

Don't get why they'd take on Reddick contract. It's of neutral value (salary to performance) and Reddick is trending downward. Unless Alvarez is involved also, can't see the Marlins paying Reddick.

I think it's fair to say the Marlins have been unsuccessful in trading Realmuto so far.

2019/2020 payroll is irrelevant to the team and doesn't matter at all. Take on bad money and get the players you want. Bail someone out.

Never forget the basis of the Marlins winning a world series was paying Mike Hampton $30 million to pitch for the Braves.

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Oh boy - Fangraphs Marlins Top 32 - https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-32-prospects-miami-marlins/

[Nick]

Oh boy - Fangraphs Marlins Top 32 - https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-...miami-marlins/

This is depressing.

[Lee Stone]

I'd bail out the Dodgers by taking the last year of Kemp's contract if it meant Lux, Ruiz and May, yes. And I'd pay for Reddick if Alvarez came along with Tucker. Otherwise, no.

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This is depressing.

Confirms what we knew - the team's farm is bare. We all have our perspectives but for me Neidert sits at the top.

Dustin Beggs. 5.5/1 k/w .98 WHIP through three levels, inc. AA. Yep, he's 25, but if he's not a top ten team prospect, nobody is. 111 innings. 2.12 ERA. He's not even in the top 32.

[Nick]

Also, I feel like I've never heard of Jordan Holloway and he's our 9th best prospect.

[lou]

This is depressing.

It's even lower than I expected. I kind of have a feeling they are undervaluing the farm as a whole though, call it a Marlins bias. They are going to get a few guys who work out here. Rogers, Scott, Banfield, and Osiris seem very low for where they were drafted. They aren't all just relievers and bench guys. Anderson has already exceeded all expectations. But, there is likely a lot of hard truths here. Fish16 is going to freak.

Longterm, if Fangraphs is right, they probably have this for 2021. Basically, a few 2+ WAR starters, some decent bench options, a few back end solid starters, and likely a very nice bullpen.

_____, ______
____, Cooper
Diaz
_____, Riddle
Anderson
VVM
_____, Brinson/Monte/Miller
_____

____, _____, Urena, Neidert, Gallen
Alcantara, Guzman, Holloway, E. Cabrera, Richards
Ca. Smith, Quijada, Garcia

2020 Farm Holdovers they currently have - Scott, Garret, Devers, Osiris, Banfield, Pompey, Nelson

What they can trade - Realmuto, Castro, Steckenrider, Conley, Straily, and an inventory of a half dozen moderate RHP relievers they won't need

Practically, if they can fill 5 holes above with the trade assets above, and the rest with free agency as no real money is on the books in 2021, this could look pretty good. Especially if Brinson/Monte get their shit together and we get a surprise SP performance from Alcantara/Guzman/E. Cabrera/Ca. Smith/Richards/etc.

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Also, I feel like I've never heard of Jordan Holloway and he's our 9th best prospect.

He's been very hurt for a long time, but they always liked him. He's healthy now.

But, it's very insane he is ahead of Guzman, Gallen, E. Cabrera, and Rogers. That's just downright scary.