2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[tjfla]

In his defense, tj may not be wrong on that one.

Alcantara, Neidert, Gallen, Cooper, Quijada, Merandy, and maybe Diaz are the only notable "graduates" coming in 2019. That's two, maybe three, of your best half dozen who aren't really THAT highly rated in the 80-130 overall prospect range, and a bunch of whatevers for prospect list purposes.

They get to add the Realmuto assets (very likely primary piece or two a 2020+ player), # 4 pick, two picks #35-46 range, Garret and Rogers (and I guess Holloway) are all finally healthy to show some real innings and turn themselves into "real" prospects, Guzman and E. Cabrera could overnight turn into dominant relievers (maybe more), there is legitimate explosive potential with Monte/VVM/Scott/Devers (at minimum) to just starting hitting big at any moment, and IFA money.

I'm not saying it'll happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if that clump turns into something notably better than the current FG projections - FV50, FV45+, FV45(5), FV40+, FV40. I like the top 16 here. They are going to get some players. - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-32-p...miami-marlins/

They still got a long ways to go though.

Ya I have them #17 or so right now. They would only be Top 10 for next offseason(JT trade/2019 Draft/IFA) then lose lots of guys to 2020 graduation.

[lou]

Cincy is not in on either Harper or Machado. All the more reason for them to just do Trammell and India to get a deal done.

On a purely academic level, I think they could do:

Trammell, India, and one or two whatever FV40 throw ins outside their top 20 for Realmuto and Steckenrider, maybe Conley, and give them a window to sign JT to an extension. Including Tucker blows up the value on that deal, but I suspect all would live without that. I don't know if Cincy would do that, but a good controlled reliever for a long time and letting them keep Tucker helps a lot to give up on Trammell's sky high potential.

I would say give them the icing on the cake and try and hit the home run if this is the scenario.

[Nick]

I think they need one of Connor Scott, Banfield, Devers or Osiris Johnson to emerge as an elite prospect for us to make that jump to one of the better minor league systems.

[tjfla]

On a purely academic level, I think they could do:

Trammell, India, and one or two whatever FV40 throw ins outside their top 20 for Realmuto and Steckenrider, maybe Conley, and give them a window to sign JT to an extension. Including Tucker blows up the value on that deal, but I suspect all would live without that. I don't know if Cincy would do that, but a good controlled reliever for a long time and letting them keep Tucker helps a lot to give up on Trammell's sky high potential.

I would say give them the icing on the cake and try and hit the home run if this is the scenario.

Barnhart's not the issue-in fact not even sure they would keep him if he was in the deal. The issue is Cincy will only do Greene/India and Miami doesn't like his medicals-Miami said Trammell/India and countered at India/Santillan/Barnhart/+

Miami would be fine with Trammell/India/Marinan or Heatherly type for JT. They just havent gotten the offer-been hoping that with SD/Philly interest would make Cincy up the offer but hasn't yet

Miami has told Martin Maldonado's agent they are interested in him. Just waiting to see what they get in deal before they do anything. If get Barnhart/Alfaro then don't need him. If get Mejia/Ruiz then they do

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I think they need one of Connor Scott, Banfield, Devers or Osiris Johnson to emerge as an elite prospect for us to make that jump to one of the better minor league systems.

Will be interested to see how Clinton/MWL plays. Connor Scott/Sean Reynolds would have had monster years in GBoro but now no idea?

[Lee Stone]

If you are thinking CINN system, Mariel Bautista (CF) stands well above India (through statistical objectivity). Trammel, Bautista, Barnhart might "feel" better to the Reds and "be" better for Marlins. First round draft picks get a biased rating from scouts. (see Kolek).

[tjfla]

If you are thinking CINN system, Mariel Bautista (CF) stands well above India (through statistical objectivity). Trammel, Bautista, Barnhart might "feel" better to the Reds and "be" better for Marlins. First round draft picks get a biased rating from scouts. (see Kolek).

Solid Project but if like stats just take this guy

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp...tting/2018/ALL

Same age/played higher level/less power

[Nick]

If you are thinking CINN system, Mariel Bautista (CF) stands well above India (through statistical objectivity). Trammel, Bautista, Barnhart might "feel" better to the Reds and "be" better for Marlins. First round draft picks get a biased rating from scouts. (see Kolek).

Lee, what is your understanding on how scouting and drafting players works?

This is like saying Olympic Judges are biased towards the athletes they gave higher scores to in the last round. Of course First Round draft picks are viewed as better by scouts that's what got them drafted in the first round.

At least you brought up Kolek as proof that 1st round draft picks are overrated.

[tjfla]

Lee, what is your understanding on how scouting and drafting players works?

This is like saying Olympic Judges are biased towards the athletes they gave higher scores to in the last round. Of course First Round draft picks are viewed as better by scouts that's what got them drafted in the first round.

At least you brought up Kolek as proof that 1st round draft picks are overrated.

Kinda true-sometimes based on signing bonus see Justin Twine/Blake Anderson

Think he means "rankings" however but no clue with Lee. He is all about stats

2 guys
23 yr old in MLB hits 20 HR
20 yr old in Rookie Ball hits 20 HR

and age or level means NOTHING to him

[Lee Stone]

Kinda true-sometimes based on signing bonus see Justin Twine/Blake Anderson

Think he means "rankings" however but no clue with Lee. He is all about stats

2 guys
23 yr old in MLB hits 20 HR
20 yr old in Rookie Ball hits 20 HR

and age or level means NOTHING to him

Holy smokes, I even got an all caps appraisal. The bottom line is that I choose to evaluate for myself instead of deferring to lazy copycat draft lists. Players who get their seasoning in the Dominican Republic instead of U.S. colleges, especially those who are signed young, are relatively ignored. My NOTHING intuition is that Mariel Bautista wil outperform India at the same minor league level(s) this coming season. As to the Marlins David Bradshaw, he looks very promising.

[tjfla]

Holy smokes, I even got an all caps appraisal. The bottom line is that I choose to evaluate for myself instead of deferring to lazy copycat draft lists. Players who get their seasoning in the Dominican Republic instead of U.S. colleges, especially those who are signed young, are relatively ignored. My NOTHING intuition is that Mariel Bautista wil outperform India at the same minor league level(s) this coming season. As to the Marlins David Bradshaw, he looks very promising.

The reason why most are ignored is because they are too old. If u are 18 in DSL u should be destroying the league and most Top DR guys are in GCL/AZL. Its like 22 yr olds in the GCL,if u don't look great u probably are gone soon

India is 22 in Hi A/AA this year
Bautista is 21 in Low A this year

If Devers played LY in DSL and put up those numbers he wouldn't be a Top 30 Prospect however he put up solid numbers for his age in Low A

All people are saying is look at age/level as well in your evaluations

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No news yet but something I mentioned like 2 weeks ago has been discussed lately

Marlins have told teams that they are willing to take on contracts for prospects/picks/IFA. Some teams who are looking at Harper/MM have called us(SF/NYY/Washington) to see if they got Harper what we would want

[lou]

Marlins have told teams that they are willing to take on contracts for prospects/picks/IFA

God willingly

[Lee Stone]

Just from Frisaro, Marlins demand Sanchez in any Philly trade. Given lack of innings pitched and persistent injuries, shouldn't be that hard for Phillies??? From Marlin perspective, I hate to see a trade's value rest primarily on a young pitcher's elbow, but that's the way it goes. Best thing about a Sanchez, Alfaro, Williams offer would be that it might push the Braves higher

[sports24/7]

Just from Frisaro, Marlins demand Sanchez in any Philly trade. Given lack of innings pitched and persistent injuries, shouldn't be that hard for Phillies??? From Marlin perspective, I hate to see a trade's value rest primarily on a young pitcher's elbow, but that's the way it goes. Best thing about a Sanchez, Alfaro, Williams offer would be that it might push the Braves higher

The thing is, all of these guys are gambles. You'd have to rely on your doctors here, but I'd rather take a gamble on his elbow with his upside than take a gamble that a lesser prospect will live up to or exceed his current potential. I'd hope that they would get another good piece, but I'd be relatively happy with a deal headlined by Sixto.

[Namaste]

Just from Frisaro, Marlins demand Sanchez in any Philly trade. Given lack of innings pitched and persistent injuries, shouldn't be that hard for Phillies??? From Marlin perspective, I hate to see a trade's value rest primarily on a young pitcher's elbow, but that's the way it goes. Best thing about a Sanchez, Alfaro, Williams offer would be that it might push the Braves higher

I think these days with TJ surgery being so prevalent, potential elbow issues don’t quite have that fear factor.

The Marlins would be foolish to deal JT to Philly and not get Sixto as the centerpiece.

[fish16]

ya, sixto is the guy you need to get in any deal. he is a clear step above medina