2018/2019 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

Is Urena prime trade bait? Could he net the Marlins an exciting natural like Nassau's Jazz Chisholm, a potential face of the franchise and leadoff hitter for the next five or six years?

The case for Urena: Dallas Keuchel is seen as a prime free agent pitcher that will likely fetch three years and $60 millionish. 2.6 BB per 9 and 6.7 K last season. Exactly the same as Urena, who has three years of arbitration ahead. Urena's WHIP was significantly better. Keuchel is older, and on the decline. Urena is only improving. Arizona still has Greinke and Goldy. Will they look to compete this year?

[lou]

Is Urena prime trade bait? Could he net the Marlins an exciting natural like Nassau's Jazz Chisholm, a potential face of the franchise and leadoff hitter for the next five or six years?

The case for Urena: Dallas Keuchel is seen as a prime free agent pitcher that will likely fetch three years and $60 millionish. 2.6 BB per 9 and 6.7 K last season. Exactly the same as Urena, who has three years of arbitration ahead. Urena's WHIP was significantly better. Keuchel is older, and on the decline. Urena is only improving. Arizona still has Greinke and Goldy. Will they look to compete this year?

Eye of the beholder situation. Urena probably has a surplus value around $25-40 million depending on how much you like him. Is he a 1.3 WAR per year or 2 WAR per year moving forward? He's not very proven even if he did take a step forward last year. He's not flashing elite K numbers to really claw above that production. He's fine to trade, but it's going to be hard to get a FV50 guy for him even if the math works. I think it's more likely a team would want to trade 3 guys for him versus 1 better one. I would see them getting something like E. Cabrera, C. Torres, and M. Mills in a package versus maxing out with getting one of Alcantara, Diaz, Guzman, or Neidert.

Keuchel has flashed better numbers for years, is only going to be 31, and is a lefty too. Maybe $20 million a year is a little steep, but it's a bit dramatic to suggest he is in decline.

[Lee Stone]

Eye of the beholder situation. Urena probably has a surplus value around $25-40 million depending on how much you like him. Is he a 1.3 WAR per year or 2 WAR per year moving forward? He's not very proven even if he did take a step forward last year. He's not flashing elite K numbers to really claw above that production. He's fine to trade, but it's going to be hard to get a FV50 guy for him even if the math works. I think it's more likely a team would want to trade 3 guys for him versus 1 better one. I would see them getting something like E. Cabrera, C. Torres, and M. Mills in a package versus maxing out with getting one of Alcantara, Diaz, Guzman, or Neidert.

Keuchel has flashed better numbers for years, is only going to be 31, and is a lefty too. Maybe $20 million a year is a little steep, but it's a bit dramatic to suggest he is in decline.

As you have pointed out in the past (and present), we have different ways of evaluating players. I focus only on what a player is becoming, not on what he once was. Keuchel's 2015 season doesn't mean a thing to me now because he doesn't throw the same anymore. I predict that Urena will perform better than Keuchel in the season ahead - and realize that few would agree. After all, fangraphs weights 2015 numbers as if they were relevant.

[lou]

As you have pointed out in the past (and present), we have different ways of evaluating players. I focus only on what a player is becoming, not on what he once was. Keuchel's 2015 season doesn't mean a thing to me now because he doesn't throw the same anymore. I predict that Urena will perform better than Keuchel in the season ahead - and realize that few would agree. After all, fangraphs weights 2015 numbers as if they were relevant.

Keuchel was better than Urena in 2018, but sounds good.

[rmc523]

As you have pointed out in the past (and present), we have different ways of evaluating players. I focus only on what a player is becoming, not on what he once was. Keuchel's 2015 season doesn't mean a thing to me now because he doesn't throw the same anymore. I predict that Urena will perform better than Keuchel in the season ahead - and realize that few would agree. After all, fangraphs weights 2015 numbers as if they were relevant.

A track record is just that - a history of what that player can do. If a player plays relatively consistently at a certain level of performance for years, it's logical to assume they'll continue around that level, and not pie in the sky hopes and dreams (I'm not talking about young prospects here, where you do have to look more at projection). The argument many of us have with your analysis is you cherry pick one or two stats that fit your narrative and ignore the rest.

[Lee Stone]

A track record is just that - a history of what that player can do. If a player plays relatively consistently at a certain level of performance for years, it's logical to assume they'll continue around that level, and not pie in the sky hopes and dreams (I'm not talking about young prospects here, where you do have to look more at projection). The argument many of us have with your analysis is you cherry pick one or two stats that fit your narrative and ignore the rest.

I favor one stat for pitchers: WHIP. Logically, pitchers who allow the fewest baserunners are doing their job best. The pitchers who are regarded as the best in the game all share that trait - the lowest WHIP rates. That's face validity. I'm not on board with Marlin prospects like Guzman and Cabrera because of untenable WHIP numbers that aren't improving.

[tjfla]

I favor one stat for pitchers: WHIP. Logically, pitchers who allow the fewest baserunners are doing their job best. The pitchers who are regarded as the best in the game all share that trait - the lowest WHIP rates. That's face validity. I'm not on board with Marlin prospects like Guzman and Cabrera because of untenable WHIP numbers that aren't improving.

W means Walks and both of those guys throw 100+ with control issues

Guys with good WHIP are control types like Pablo/Yamamoto. I favor WHIP as well but not when the guy is 20 and throws 100+ because the command likely isnt there

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The Urena market is 3 prospects. 1 Top 5-10,1 mid level and 1 "project" type arm. Maybe u get 1 Top 5 guy in a weak system IF the team needs a cheap arm but not likely

Will hear alot more talk about Urena and Straily once FA market thins out

A out of the box team on Urena is Cleveland.

[Lee Stone]

W means Walks and both of those guys throw 100+ with control issues

Guys with good WHIP are control types like Pablo/Yamamoto. I favor WHIP as well but not when the guy is 20 and throws 100+ because the command likely isnt there

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The Urena market is 3 prospects. 1 Top 5-10,1 mid level and 1 "project" type arm. Maybe u get 1 Top 5 guy in a weak system IF the team needs a cheap arm but not likely

Will hear alot more talk about Urena and Straily once FA market thins out

We seem to be learning that exceptional offspeed pitches trump velocity. At least it's looking that way to me. High velocity arms also seem to be more injury prone. Call me a dumbass (Wait, everyone has already done that), but I like old man Dustin Beggs as a future starter over Guzman and Cabrera.

[tjfla]

We seem to be learning that exceptional offspeed pitches trump velocity. At least it's looking that way to me. High velocity arms also seem to be more injury prone. Call me a dumbass (Wait, everyone has already done that), but I like old man Dustin Beggs as a future starter over Guzman and Cabrera.

Beggs is Ben Meyer. Will be Swing/LR guy.

[Lee Stone]

Beggs is Ben Meyer. Will be Swing/LR guy.

Quite honestly, Ben Meyer never did enough in AAA to earn a promotion. Even though he was 25 at the time, I think he was tossed to the wolves prematurely. We'll see how Beggs (and Meyer) handle AAA this coming season. Note: Meyer never even pitched an inning of AA ball!

Nationals are officially out of the Realmuto Stakes. Signed Kurt Suzuki.

[tjfla]

No better way to tell your Vets and FA that u are ALL In for 2019 by signing Kurt Suzuki instead of trading 2 guys who probably won't have a spot to play in the Majors for JT

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40 man rosters have to be set before tomm so alot of movement will be happening next 2 days

Marlins are talking with a few teams to see if they can do what they did with NYY LY

Something I wish Miami would do in the draft is take and sign HS guys after 20th Rd. Cleveland just traded some HS kid they took in 27th Rd for a ML RP. Hopefully they will start doing it but its another way to get talent for small market teams- take a HS kid give him 125K and see if he is anything

[sports24/7]

With Urena, I'd only trade him if you're getting a nice haul. If teams are valuing him like the pitcher he was down the stretch, you can let him go. If they're valuing him closer to the pitcher he was before that, I'd hold off. If he continues to trend upwards, you are going to lose a hell of a lot of value on him, and if he doesn't, it's not like you really missed out on any kind of a big opportunity to move him for anything great.

This kind of feels like the situation with JT when he started trending upward, and people were ready to trade him right away. There's no guarantee he'll keep going in that direction, and he'll almost certainly never have close JT's value currently, but to me, I'd rather gamble on his upside, than take a package that gives you a return on what his value currently is. Like I said, though, if someone is willing to pay now for that upside, my feelings change a little bit.

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Also, FWIW, Mish has updated his odds on where JT ends up. Doesn't mean much, but Houston is now even with the Braves at 25%. I wonder if they're seriously considering giving up Tucker or Whitley.

Craig Mish

Verified account

@CraigMish
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Realmuto % Opening Day 2019
(Entertainment purposes only)

Braves 25%
Astros 25% ��
Rockies 10% ��
Marlins 10%
Cubs 5% ��
Yankees 5%
Brewers 5%
Dodgers 5%
Nationals �� ✌��
Other 10 %

The graphics you can't see are Astros trending up, Rockies trending down, Cubs trending up, Nationals trending down.

[tjfla]

With Urena, I'd only trade him if you're getting a nice haul. If teams are valuing him like the pitcher he was down the stretch, you can let him go. If they're valuing him closer to the pitcher he was before that, I'd hold off. If he continues to trend upwards, you are going to lose a hell of a lot of value on him, and if he doesn't, it's not like you really missed out on any kind of a big opportunity to move him for anything great.

This kind of feels like the situation with JT when he started trending upward, and people were ready to trade him right away. There's no guarantee he'll keep going in that direction, and he'll almost certainly never have close JT's value currently, but to me, I'd rather gamble on his upside, than take a package that gives you a return on what his value currently is. Like I said, though, if someone is willing to pay now for that upside, my feelings change a little bit.

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Also, FWIW, Mish has updated his odds on where JT ends up. Doesn't mean much, but Houston is now even with the Braves at 25%. I wonder if they're seriously considering giving up Tucker or Whitley.

Craig Mish

Verified account

@CraigMish
Following Following @CraigMish
More
Realmuto % Opening Day 2019
(Entertainment purposes only)

Braves 25%
Astros 25% ��
Rockies 10% ��
Marlins 10%
Cubs 5% ��
Yankees 5%
Brewers 5%
Dodgers 5%
Nationals �� ✌��
Other 10 %

The graphics you can't see are Astros trending up, Rockies trending down, Cubs trending up, Nationals trending down.

Houston is considering it BUT still looks like a Alvarez,Martin,Perez or JB plus more type deal is still more likely. One thing on Houston is they want a Front Line SP badly and Cleveland likes Tucker and Whitley too.

2 things on Mish's thing- #1 Cubs are trending up because they are willing to deal Bryant/Russell/Other ML guys and Miami would like some of them and #2 LAD is low because they won't do Miami's asking price

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Still likely deals are

Atlanta-Soroka OR Anderson/Riley/Wentz OR Muller/maybe another prospect or 2(because Atlanta has to pay more since in NL East)
Houston-Alvarez/Martin/Perez OR JB/Stubbs or Stassi/maybe another prospect or 2(Straily or another arm included from Miami)

They would like from Houston

Tucker/Martin/Stubbs or Stassi
Whitley/Alvarez/Stubbs or Stassi

Still wish the "Other" like Oakland would jump in and offer

Oakland-Luzardo/Sean Murphy/Baretto OR Mateo OR another SS/and More

[tjfla]

Quite honestly, Ben Meyer never did enough in AAA to earn a promotion. Even though he was 25 at the time, I think he was tossed to the wolves prematurely. We'll see how Beggs (and Meyer) handle AAA this coming season. Note: Meyer never even pitched an inning of AA ball!

Nationals are officially out of the Realmuto Stakes. Signed Kurt Suzuki.

Suzuki got 2/10. JT projected at 6 Million this year

[rmc523]

Suzuki got 2/10. JT projected at 6 Million this year

It's broken into $4/$6