2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Im cool with that plan for elieser as Meyer and/or caberera will be ready to roll by that point in the big leagues, but id let cabrera and Meyer keep developing in AAA instead of doing that move midway through the year.

Agree with Meyer - he needs more time and service time manipulation. Also, Meyer can likely throw more innings than Elisier or Cabrera, so he can throw those extra 4-5 games in AAA for sure and still be ready in the fall. Meyer's arm is built up more.

[Nick]

But 125ish IP is a full season for him. It's arm health. He's been hurt.

2021 - 75 IP
2020 - 25
2019 - 130
2018 - 82
2017 - 73
2016 - 107
2015 - 65
2014 - 45
2013 - 57
2012 - 35
(Jesus. Hernandez has been around forever)

I think you aim for previous high (130). Doubling innings seems like a bad idea. If he's cruising, low stress innings, he might be able to handle some more though. FG projections have him between 89-140 IP, and if we take out the high/low outliers, the average is about 125 IP exactly. Give him 15-20 starts and around 80-100 IP, and move him to the pen to come out in 2 inning bursts. Do the exact opposite with Cabrera and flip them in July.

I’m just saying I wouldn’t shut him down unless you're seeing clear signs of concerns regarding his health.

[Namaste]

Hard to believe Pirates won’t take Cabrera/Bleday/Burdick/Dax for Reynolds.

[Nick]

Griffin Conine just hit a very impressive opposite field homer.

[lou]

Hard to believe Pirates won’t take Cabrera/Bleday/Burdick/Dax for Reynolds.

I can but solely because it's double OF. They have few FV45 OF types and their SS hope Cruz may outgrow and end up in LF.

Drop in Salas/I. Lewis/Mack for Burdick who are basically the equivalent prospects there and I think they run with it. Basically, Salas or Lewis as Mack should stay and they have catchers.

Get Bednar also, and throw them two more 11-20 guys - call it maybe Jerar/Morisette and McCambley/Fitterer. DLC also. Throw him in.

There is a deal here. They should stop being fucking cheap. They can do this without Watson and keeping two of Eury, Meyer, and Cabrera.

[lou]

Also just watched the spring highlights. You are out of your mind if you want to put Cabrera in AAA. He is clearly a top 13 pitcher. Let him fucking rip over 125 IP. The pitchers look GREAT across the board.

[fish16]

Also just watched the spring highlights. You are out of your mind if you want to put Cabrera in AAA. He is clearly a top 13 pitcher. Let him fucking rip over 125 IP. The pitchers look GREAT across the board.

You’re gonna be disappointed. They aren’t moving him to the bullpen. And they shouldn’t. Let him continue to develop as a starter going thru lineups 3 times at an advanced level like aaa. Trade a mid level prospect for a couple middle relievers

[lou]

You’re gonna be disappointed. They aren’t moving him to the bullpen. And they shouldn’t. Let him continue to develop as a starter going thru lineups 3 times at an advanced level like aaa. Trade a mid level prospect for a couple middle relievers

You like losing baseball way too much. I have no other explanation.

It's also not a move to the bullpen. It's breaking him into the majors for 3 months - 3 fucking months from a guy who has already 6 years of pro experience - who is going to be on a major innings cap this year. He's one of the best 13 arms they have, and unlike Meyer who they can play some service time games with and prevent a super 2, they can't with Cabrera. Let him rip. Win games.

[fish16]

You like losing baseball way too much. I have no other explanation.

It's also not a move to the bullpen. It's breaking him into the majors for 3 months - 3 fucking months from a guy who has already 6 years of pro experience - who is going to be on a major innings cap this year. He's one of the best 13 arms they have, and unlike Meyer who they can play some service time games with and prevent a super 2, they can't with Cabrera. Let him rip. Win games.

6 years of pro experience? He's only thrown 341 innings total. He's thrown 100 innings once. he already got a month and a half of experience last year to end the year. He needs to get innings under his belt or else you will be shackling yourself with the next 2 years of watching his innings far too closely. Let the kid throw 130-150 innings, bring him up when you need him when there is an injury, and don't fuck with his role as a way of covering up the front office's lack of bullpen additions.

The question isn't whether he is one of the best 13 arms. if that were the question why not just throw meyer and cabrera both into the pen? The reason its a bad move is because cabrera needs to continue building innings, not pitching 3-4 innings per week, and he needs to continue to develop by going through lineups 2,3, 4 times a game. His development is better off by letting him throw 6-7 innings at a time in the minors, going through lineups multiple times, and building up his innings until a guy gets hurt than it would be throwing him out of the bullpen for 50 innings between now and july. And his development is the most important thing, not the 50 innings he would be throwing out of the bullpen between now and july.

The value he adds for 3 months as a reliever is not worth fucking with his development. They will trade a minor prospect or 2 for a few arms like bleier and call it a bullpen. I can almost guarantee cabrera and Meyer start in AAA's rotation.

[fish16]

Bullpen will be: Floro (might be out opening day), Bass, Bender, Bleier, Pop, Okert, Head, Holloway, and maybe tommy nance. I could see poteet making it as a long reliever too.

[lou]

6 years of pro experience? He's only thrown 341 innings total. He's thrown 100 innings once. he already got a month and a half of experience last year to end the year. He needs to get innings under his belt or else you will be shackling yourself with the next 2 years of watching his innings far too closely. Let the kid throw 130-150 innings, bring him up when you need him when there is an injury, and don't fuck with his role as a way of covering up the front office's lack of bullpen additions.

The question isn't whether he is one of the best 13 arms. if that were the question why not just throw meyer and cabrera both into the pen? The reason its a bad move is because cabrera needs to continue building innings, not pitching 3-4 innings per week, and he needs to continue to develop by going through lineups 2,3, 4 times a game. His development is better off by letting him throw 6-7 innings at a time in the minors, going through lineups multiple times, and building up his innings until a guy gets hurt than it would be throwing him out of the bullpen for 50 innings between now and july. And his development is the most important thing, not the 50 innings he would be throwing out of the bullpen between now and july.

The value he adds for 3 months as a reliever is not worth fucking with his development. They will trade a minor prospect or 2 for a few arms like bleier and call it a bullpen. I can almost guarantee cabrera and Meyer start in AAA's rotation.

There is so much wrong here I don't know where to begin.

-Yes he has been a pro for 6 years.
-Yes exactly he has thrown only 100 innings once, so that's why he is on a 125ish innings cap this year. He can easily get all 125ish at the MLB level please wrap your head around this
-No role is being fucked with building up his arm strength in shorter bursts for 3 months and then adding second times through the lineup come June/July. Have you watched baseball lately and how teams use relievers? Ever see the Rays box scores?
-The answer is winning games and if he is a top 13 arm with no ancillary issues (see below), yes he should be on the squad
-I've already answered Meyer - you can play service time manipulation, Cabrera you can't. Also, the rotation is FULL so Meyer can throw more innings in AAA while Cabrera can still get his full yearly workload at the MLB level. Meyer CANNOT in a bullpen roll. He stays in the minors through mid-June and throws as much as he can handle and then see what's left. Meyer can probably throw 140-150. Turning Hernandez and Cabrera into a flip/flop is the best thing they can do with those two. If there is an injury, Meyer can be reassessed.
-No development is being fucked with throwing 125+ MLB innings and getting MLB hitters out
-Arguing he needs to throw 6-7 innings in the minors shows directly how off base you are. You let him throw 6+ innings in the minors on average, and he's out of juice in 20ish starts. That could be early August. That is stupid. That's what hurts his development, an early shut down with 2 months left in the season!!! He has to be paced.
-No development issues whatsoever building his innings this way.
-Again, no development issues whatsoever building his innings this way. Unless you think the Twins did a bad job with Johan Santana
-Fifth time, again no development issues building him up this way and this is your mental problem you need to wrap your head around players don't need to be crammed into historical boxes of what a starter and reliever is. They don't exist
-50 innings of Cabrera as a reliever versus Yacabonis is a big deal. What idiot would take Yacabonis if it doesn't impact Cabrera's development?
-Just because Cabrera may be sent to AAA, doesn't mean it's smart. Like, we can almost guarantee they won't trade for a CF, and that isn't smart.

Dumb. Just so fucking dumb if they think like you. It would make the offseason worse honestly if they did this. They did so many good things to just stop would be the theme.

[fish16]

There is so much wrong here I don't know where to begin.

-Yes he has been a pro for 6 years.
-Yes exactly he has thrown only 100 innings once, so that's why he is on a 125ish innings cap this year. He can easily get all 125ish at the MLB level please wrap your head around this
-No role is being fucked with building up his arm strength in shorter bursts for 3 months and then adding second times through the lineup come June/July. Have you watched baseball lately and how teams use relievers? Ever see the Rays box scores?
-The answer is winning games and if he is a top 13 arm with no ancillary issues (see below), yes he should be on the squad
-I've already answered Meyer - you can play service time manipulation, Cabrera you can't. Also, the rotation is FULL so Meyer can throw more innings in AAA while Cabrera can still get his full yearly workload at the MLB level. Meyer CANNOT in a bullpen roll. He stays in the minors through mid-June and throws as much as he can handle and then see what's left. Meyer can probably throw 140-150. Turning Hernandez and Cabrera into a flip/flop is the best thing they can do with those two. If there is an injury, Meyer can be reassessed.
-No development is being fucked with throwing 125+ MLB innings and getting MLB hitters out
-Arguing he needs to throw 6-7 innings in the minors shows directly how off base you are. You let him throw 6+ innings in the minors on average, and he's out of juice in 20ish starts. That could be early August. That is stupid. That's what hurts his development, an early shut down with 2 months left in the season!!! He has to be paced.
-No development issues whatsoever building his innings this way.
-Again, no development issues whatsoever building his innings this way. Unless you think the Twins did a bad job with Johan Santana
-Fifth time, again no development issues building him up this way and this is your mental problem you need to wrap your head around players don't need to be crammed into historical boxes of what a starter and reliever is. They don't exist
-50 innings of Cabrera as a reliever versus Yacabonis is a big deal. What idiot would take Yacabonis if it doesn't impact Cabrera's development?
-Just because Cabrera may be sent to AAA, doesn't mean it's smart. Like, we can almost guarantee they won't trade for a CF, and that isn't smart.

Dumb. Just so fucking dumb if they think like you. It would make the offseason worse honestly if they did this. They did so many good things to just stop would be the theme.

His role absolutely is being fucked with by going from starter to bullpen to starter. He needs to be stretched out and pushed to go deep into games. His 50 innings vs. the other last guy in the bullpen is not going to make any kind of big discernible difference in our season. It's simply not all that big of a loss over the course of the first 3 months of the season vs the development cabrera could have innings wise in the rotation in AAA. There is no need to cap him at 125 innings. Let him loose and try to build up his innings and judge his innings as the season goes on. I find strict innings limits to be stupid to an extent. If you have to throw him into the bullpen late in the year as a gas throwing internal addition to bolster the pen in July and want to limit his innings later in the year if he's showing signs of fatigue, fine, but he needs to be starting every 5th day, developing by going through lineups multiple times and working on his secondary pitches to get guys out multiple times a game.

I'm not sure why meyer is a service time manipulation candidate but cabrera isn't. You can easily slide cabrera into AAA for the first few months and get the extra year just like you're arguing they can do with Meyer. 50 innings over 3 months of Cabrera is not worth an extra year of control 6 years from now when he is in his theoretical prime. Simply put, 50 innings of him vs 50 innings of a guy like Poteet is not going to make or break this team. And its not as helpful for his development as going every 5th day will be and building up his innings so we can let him somewhat loose in the rotation next year.

If you have to be careful with his innings late in the year so be it, then I have no problem sliding meyer into the rotation and letting cabrera bolster the back end of the bullpen.


You have 1 example of johan santana from 20 fucking years ago. Santana is a hall of fame pitcher, but he wasn't a top prospect and they weren't doing that to be careful with him, they were doing that because they didn't know what they had. Santana was a rule 5 pick by us that we then traded. They weren't limiting his innings as a way of prolonging his season, they were throwing some rule 5 guy they acquired in the bullpen and he proved he was a starter. It also didn't work as you're saying it did. He came out of the bullpen for a single game that year in 2002, then they moved him to the rotation, and moved him back to the bullpen to end the year to limit his innings. His last 9 appearances of that year came out of the bullpen. They started him until they realized they wanted to limit his innings, so this whole johan santana premise is bullshit. The following year they started him in the bullpen then moved him to the rotation because he led the fucking league in wild pitches with 15 the previous year. What you're doing is retroactively explaining a situation that simply isn't the reality of why they handled him the way they did. He pitched 158 innings that year.

It's ok for us to disagree, id just rather not move him from rotation to bullpen to rotation again and lose an extra year of control for 50 innings of bullpen work that can easily be replaced internally by a guy like Poteet.

40-50 innings of bullpen work between now and July is simply not all that impactful.

[lou]

His role absolutely is being fucked with by going from starter to bullpen to starter.

No

He needs to be stretched out and pushed to go deep into games.

Yes - which is why a guy coming off an injured and lost season who has reached 100 IP once should be pace to give him a full seasons of work (which is 125ish IP) over April-September and not April-August 5th and then shut down

His 50 innings vs. the other last guy in the bullpen is not going to make any kind of big discernible difference in our season. It's simply not all that big of a loss over the course of the first 3 months of the season

Maybe, however this is (1) a losing mentality and (2) they NEVER should have brought him up in 2021

vs the development cabrera could have innings wise in the rotation in AAA.

It would literally be the same amount of innings

There is no need to cap him at 125 innings. Let him loose and try to build up his innings and judge his innings as the season goes on. I find strict innings limits to be stupid to an extent.

He is one of the most important assets on the team, coming off an injury. Throwing 125+ is not babying him. He shouldn't be thrown out with kid gloves, but they need a realistic plan to slowly integrate him into the MLB squad. Assuming he is kept

If you have to throw him into the bullpen late in the year as a gas throwing internal addition to bolster the pen in July and want to limit his innings later in the year if he's showing signs of fatigue, fine,

This is so fucking dumb. You don't want him fatigued AT ALL and you want his arm BUILT UP the most at the end of the year to end strong.

but he needs to be starting every 5th day, developing by going through lineups multiple times and working on his secondary pitches to get guys out multiple times a game.

All of this can happen in 1-3 IP bursts for 2 1/2 month, before ratcheting up to 4-6 innings. He's one of the best 13 arms they have and they should have never brought him up if he isn't ready

I'm not sure why meyer is a service time manipulation candidate but cabrera isn't. You can easily slide cabrera into AAA for the first few months and get the extra year just like you're arguing they can do with Meyer.

You're pushing Cabrera to August to prevent a Super 2 (and he's out of innings then with your plan so then he doesn't pitch at the MLB level at all), and to accept a Super 2, your'e delaying him to June. Meyer doesn't have any service time, but I'm not going to argue with you if you want to call up Meyer end of April, accept a super 2, and let him throw 100+ innings at the MLB level. I am fine throwing him in 3-4 inning bursts the whole years. This is about outs ultimately.

50 innings over 3 months of Cabrera is not worth an extra year of control 6 years from now when he is in his theoretical prime.

Are we contending? Things are different as a contender. Loser mentality. They shouldn't have called him up last year then. Meyer can throw more innings and he can't get them at the MLB level so he stays down, Cabrera stays up

Simply put, 50 innings of him vs 50 innings of a guy like Poteet is not going to make or break this team.

Maybe, but loser mentality

And its not as helpful for his development as going every 5th day will be and building up his innings so we can let him somewhat loose in the rotation next year.

Irrelevant for the first part, and the innings build up happens either way.

If you have to be careful with his innings late in the year so be it,

Categorically wrong - end strong. No August shut downs. Especially if we consider the Marlins a contender with 1-2 pieces needed

then I have no problem sliding meyer into the rotation and letting cabrera bolster the back end of the bullpen.

First if you are OK at any point in the season Cabrera going to the pen, you can do it at the start of the year. See above - no fatigue. Have a plan. Get through the season. Second, Meyer can throw more in AAA right now (his arm can handle more IP and he has less professional experience), so it makes way more sense for him to get AAA innings before a call up as the Marlins would have to adapt to Meyer throwing 4-5 innings as a 6th SP right away and that then messes with Luzardo and Hernandez work loads. That being said, calling up Meyer after the service time manipulation and Kris Bryanting him would be great. Make a statement to win and worry about it later. They can find Meyer 115+ innings this year at the MLB level. I'd be a little sad about a super 2, but would love it as let's WIN SOME GAMES!

Ultimately, all of this is an organizational balancing act of getting the best MLB roster, along with doing what is right for every player. They can easily do this for these guys right now with just minimal oversight.

You have 1 example of johan santana from 20 fucking years ago. Santana is a hall of fame pitcher, but he wasn't a top prospect

Johan Santana was a top 30 prospect in 2003, so no. And look all over baseball. Even guys like Ryan Yarbrough are introduced in waves and are not purely "starters." The concept of a starter is done. The only obstacle with the Marlins is "Mattingly" who is below average in pitcher usage IMO. This is arguably important as we can make a plan on paper, but Don could blow it. Like Girardi who broke JJ, Nolasco, and Anibal.

and they weren't doing that to be careful with him, they were doing that because they didn't know what they had. Santana was a rule 5 pick by us that we then traded. They weren't limiting his innings as a way of prolonging his season, they were throwing some rule 5 guy they acquired in the bullpen and he proved he was a starter.

THIS IS SO UNARGUABLY INCORRECT. PLEASE TAKE NOTE, FULL STOP. THIS IS WRONG. YOU ARE WRONG. The Twins did the TWO year Santana innings plan because they knew he had an innings limit on his arm because of his previous mileage and they didn't want to throw him so fast and have to shut him down. They also knew he had to be at the MLB level as he was so good. They knew they had to pace him so they'd have him the full season and if they made the playoffs, he wouldn't be out of innings (See Cabrera - we want him late unless this is a rebuild year to you. For me, it's not. Win games. No loser mentality). Twins fans were LIVID as he was AMAZING and wanted him to throw because obviously you see the outs, but the organization held their ground knowing he had to have innings caps. This is unbelievably analogous to Cabrera and Hernandez right now for the Marlins, where they have a bit more leeway with Luzardo and Meyer (150 IP range) and a bit more with Pablo/Rogers (170IP range). To note, I'd prefer to do a slow stretch out with Hernandez also, but someone has to be the 5 and he has more experience/older/less upside than Cabrera and Meyer, so he gets the flip flop of the Cabrera plan.

Also, to mention Sixto is trending for this plan next year too. If he isn't just outright converted to a RP becuase the rotation is stacked.

It's ok for us to disagree,

That is fine but I need a defensible position. See below.

id just rather not move him from rotation to bullpen to rotation again and lose an extra year of control for 50 innings of bullpen work that can easily be replaced internally by a guy like Poteet.

This is where you can sell me - keeping him down to likely June 1 will trigger a Super 2 so you get the year of control, even if he's more expensive. However this goes back to (1) loser mentality. Let's win games as a contender in 2022 and worry about 2028 later (especially with this pitching depth they have. Who is sweating a 7th Cabrera year right now? This isn't 2018 where they weren't going to contend for years), and (2) if they did want to do this with Cabrera in AAA..... they then absolutely NEEDED to not call him up in 2021 for so long, and/or sign/acquire a notable free agent RP right now. They didn't do these things.

40-50 innings of bullpen work between now and July is simply not all that impactful.

Ultimately, win games. Just say no to shutting Cabrera down in early August. That hurts his development.

[fish16]

we can disagree, im cool with an extra year of arbitration for him if we get him for an extra year. you call it loser mentality, I call it managing your best assets intelligently. 50 innings out of the bullpen to start the year vs an entire extra year of team control as he is in his prime.

Also, you're flat out wrong on santana being a top prospect. You are confusing him with ervin santana, who was coincidentally named johan santana until he changed his name. That's the johan santana you are seeing on those lists. You think a rule 5 draft pick was a top 30 prospect? By 2003 he had already pitched 220+ major league innings. You're wrong.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ervin_Santana

I just think its better for his development to focus on starting. Worry about his innings later in the year. Get the extra year of team control for a top 50 prospect. The 50 innings between him vs a guy like poteet is not significant. the difference between those 2 wont be the difference between us making the playoffs and not making the playoffs.

Johan Santana was also terrible his first 2 full years as a reliever for Minnesota in 2000 and 2001 until he perfected his changeup. Your retrospective on johan santana is just not accurate.

And to me, 125 innings for cabrera is different if they are coming in starts vs coming in from the pen. His development needs to focus on going deep into games as a starter and getting guys out multiple times through the lineup. You cant work on that coming out of the pen for 1-2 innings at a time, and you're unnecessarily milking his service time to do a role a guy like poteet could do at a similar level for a few months.

[fish16]

Also, you dont have to shut down cabrera entirely in august. If he gets to 125 early, move him to the pen and just monitor his arm and next year bump up the innings. This whole idea of him getting to 125 innings and having to shut him down without actually seeing him do that and seeing where his arm is at at that point is just stupid. Blanket innings limits are dumb. Monitor the arm as the season goes on. If he needs to be shut down to prevent overworking or fatigue, make that call then. But to be here in April saying he can only pitch 125 innings and once he gets there we shut him down is just bad player development .