2024 Game Thread

[Nick]

Bendix has forced 2025 to be a rebuilding year. There's no way around it. Continue to throw shit at the wall, then spend money on 1 or 2 proven reliever commodities the offseason after. (won't happen)

[lou]

i've never seen anyone in love with expected numbers than you. They are useful at times, but you overuse them. It really feels as if you dont watch any of these guys and your entire evaluation on everyone is just advanced stats and statcast, which has a value, but are way overused by you. The guy had a really good season, and has a great minor league track record of doing exactly what he did this year, which is hit for decent power with really solid K/BB numbers. His arm strength definitely isnt there per the numbers, so maybe he is a 1b option with the occasional 3b start, but the guy is a solid player. The hard hit numbers arent great, but the whiff%, chase %, square up %, bb% are all close to elite, and his K% is above average. He is a solid, bottom of the order option. the position is the question more than the bat. He is a classic rays 1b.

In regards to the bullpen, you also love just putting names down and acting as if that constitutes depth. None of those guys have done anything to be counted on moving forward. Maybe one to two of those guys pans out, but they shouldnt rely on it. They rightfully decimated their pen at the deadline, so they should sign 2 arms to low cost deals to provide some stability around those wild cards and if we suck next year, just deal them at the deadline. They cannot continue to go into every single season just throwing shit against the wall in april and may to see what sticks. It's ok to have some competency out of the gate with the bullpen. It wont cost much in terms of money or years, and it will possibly prevent the season from going into a tailspin early again. No one is asking to sign 5 relievers, but signing a proven back end arm or 2 middle relievers to low money 1 year deals is necessary.

And i will almost guarantee they dont sign an innings eating arm. They should to add a higher floor with potential injuries, but they wont. We've been saying they need to do this for like 4 years. They have no intention of spending the money necessary to account for injuries that could torpedo a season very quickly. They will just hope it doesnt happen again.

Here we go again.

Bride has likely "earned" a roster spot on the 40 entering next year, but is going to get churned out when better options (DDLS, Ramirez, Martorella) bump him off. Which could happen 15 days into the season as that is when the service time rolls over, even if it is more than likely mid-June for the S2 deadline. Bride is a light hitting, no defense player. He is an AAAA guy - just like Bellozo - who has shown enough to stick around and maybe have some depth value not having a negative value player, but neither is likely going to do much. I'd like to note I was on the call up Bride train about 2 months before everyone in April, so yes I am more aware than you are about who Bride is and what he has done in AAA, but when you get the data points he is not great compared to his peers. It is OK to reassess. The guy is over achieving. It's that easy. He'll be off the 40 man by mid-June when DDLS and Ramirez are ready.



Frankly, not liking the relievers is saying outloud "I don't watch any of these guys" and we're projecting here again. First, Faucher, Bender, and Nardi are at minimum obviously keeps (Cronin too, but I think he should be traded because they have so much depth so call it 3-4 guys). So they only need (since they have 6 SP) only 4-5 more guys for the pen. And then depth options:

Tinoco - he is good. You're not getting rid of this - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-pitching-mlb;

McMillian - he is potentially really good and was a borderline top 100 prospect a year ago. 0 chance they cut him unless catastrophically hurt. KC messed up - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

Veneziano - This is a fine 3rd bullpen lefty, with potentially more upside if they move him to a real slider dependent guy. You're not giving up on him. - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

Oller - I don't know how many times one has to say it, but his slurve is dominant and he is miscast as a SP. Being a max effort 2 IP guy is extremely interesting. He is OOO which sucks, but I think he will stick as the "longman" of the bullpen to open the year - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

Maldonado - His slider is incredibly projectable and has an option. He stays. - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...r-pitching-mlb

Simpson - He was hurt, but they really like him + a lefty. He started settling down in AAA the end of the year as he got into 15 games or so. He has an option. He stays. - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jo...ats?position=P


So this is a full pitching staff (as they have 6 SP + Eury + Mazur + Fulton is on the 40) without Cronin. Keep Cronin and this is even better. This is 18-19 guys without and with Cronin.


So saying sign 2 relievers pushes two of Baumann (interesting velocity/curve profile), Bellozo (kitchen sink 5 pitch inventory starter), or Petersen (great AAA year, cutter profile) off the roster, and if they keep Cronin and sign 2 guys, it's all 3. Practically, if they spend to improve that is OK of course, but now you're running into a problem Tinoco and Oller are OOO so this becomes the MLB staff:

Sandy, Luzardo/FA, Garret, Cabrera, Weathers, Max (MiLB - Eury, Mazur, Bellozo, Fulton)
Faucher, Bender, Tinoco, Oller, "Some free agent" (AAA - McMillian, Maldonado)
Nardi, "Some free agent" (AAA - Veneziano, Simpson)

And that's without Cronin*

McMillian, Veneziano, and Maldonado would probably each make 15-20+ bullpens in baseball for some perspective so this is some real arm talent in AAA. I might be low here. This is frankly a depth area. While you like to say you're just listing names, in reality Baumann and Petersen can very easily be viable "4th" RHP pitchers out of the bullpen immediately (or completely expendable and churned for the next waiver guy like him or better), so since they have these guys, why spend money (literally any money) to improve the last 2 guys in the bullpen which will predominantly be low leverage innings, versus they legitimately need 4 bats added to the roster to become viable. THIS TEAM NEEDS HITTING, HITTING, AND MORE HITTING.

So per your comment - they cannot continue to go into every single season just throwing shit against the wall in april and may to see what sticks. It's ok to have some competency out of the gate with the bullpen. It wont cost much in terms of money or years, and it will possibly prevent the season from going into a tailspin early again. No one is asking to sign 5 relievers, but signing a proven back end arm or 2 middle relievers to low money 1 year deals is necessary.

What they can't keep doing is opening the season with Bethancourt, Anderson, Brujan, and N. Gordon.... which is what something like "whatever they are going to do for their 2nd catcher," Bride, D. Hill, and Stowers/Dane/Sanoja, with Edwards miscast at SS and Norby miscast at 3B is. All the resources need to go to the bats. All of them. The bullpen is in much better shape than you think it is which is a compliment to Bendix. He put together the # 2 bullpen in baseball despite the revolving door, and yes some of that is due to many innings, but it's going to open the year as-is as a top 12 unit as a floor. It's fine. Bats, Bats, Bats.


Lastly, and as stated, they shouldn't sign an innings eater unless they move a MLB SP. It's just that easy. They have the innings right now.

[fish16]

First paragraph - Yes to everything, but Bride is not good (expected slash .225/.306/.338, arm strength 5th so he is a land locked 1B maybe 2B) so he is frankly a stopgap to DDLS (or Ramirez) service time status as a DH/1B and that's it.

Second paragraph - Yes Sherman is incompetent and they should have a bridge catcher to Ramirez/Banfield/Mack. They will need an innings eater if they trade a SP but should be good otherwise. I would bet on Luzardo still being moved personally as they do need a bat.

Third paragraph - This is where you lose me. The Marlins ended with the 2nd best bullpen in baseball last year, and yes Puk, Scott, Hoeing, Brazoban, Chargois, and even some OK Burch Smith innings (collectively, 2.9 WAR from those 6 guys, seriously) contributed to that, but even taking those guys away would just lower the Marlins to the 12th best bullpen as Faucher, Cronin, Bender, Tinoco, and Nardi were excellent (collectively, 5 WAR!!), and past them Baumann, Veneziano, McMillian, Maldonado and Petersen did throw 59 innings and they collectively had .6 WAR in those innings which, is a totally solid RP once aggregated. That's 10 guys popping a 5.6 WAR in just over 300 innings which is in a word, great. There is also Oller on top of that who is miscast as a SP, but I think he can be added to the group as his 1st time through numbers are interesting (9.72 K/9, 3.41 FIP... but xFIP 4.44). I think a max-effort Oller throwing a little harder can be a 2 inning pitcher for sure, but we shall see. The slurve is real if you've ever seen him throw. They should IMO, trade one of the slider right handed guys (Cronin, Tinoco, Maldonado, McMillian) because they have so much bullpen depth in their effort at improving the bat situation. This is objectively good IMO and Bendix gets a lot of credit adding 8 names to this list from July-September.


SP Sandy, Luzardo/FA, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers, Max (Mazur, Bellozo, Fulton, IL-Eury)

RHP Faucher, Bender, Cronin/Tinoco (other traded), Oller, Baumann (McMillian, Maldonado, Petersen)

LHP Nardi, Veneziano (Simpson)


Big picture, if they were to do anything here, it's signing a veteran lefty and then Oller(OOO), Baumann(OOO), Maldonado, or Petersen is on the chopping block for that guy on the 40 man. This could also be a few MiLB veteran lefty signings and they can see their own path here. Maybe I am also a bit too optimistic on someone like Baumann or Petersen and they just keep both of Cronin and Tinoco which is also fine.


The outlier scenario would be a Max bullpen determination this offseason, where then it is getting rid of a slider guy or Petersen, and then needing an innings eater to replace him. Frankly, I wouldn't make that decision with Max opening day and he gets until Eury is back minimium, so I'm opening with the above. Trade Luzardo and Cronin as part of bat packges, sign a veteran innings eater, sign MiLB lefties, and that's all the pitching moves. Absent, they should also extend Cabrera for 5 years.

i've never seen anyone in love with expected numbers than you. They are useful at times, but you overuse them. It really feels as if you dont watch any of these guys and your entire evaluation on everyone is just advanced stats and statcast, which has a value, but are way overused by you. The guy had a really good season, and has a great minor league track record of doing exactly what he did this year, which is hit for decent power with really solid K/BB numbers. His arm strength definitely isnt there per the numbers, so maybe he is a 1b option with the occasional 3b start, but the guy is a solid player. The hard hit numbers arent great, but the whiff%, chase %, square up %, bb% are all close to elite, and his K% is above average. He is a solid, bottom of the order option. the position is the question more than the bat. He is a classic rays 1b.

In regards to the bullpen, you also love just putting names down and acting as if that constitutes depth. None of those guys have done anything to be counted on moving forward. Maybe one to two of those guys pans out, but they shouldnt rely on it. They rightfully decimated their pen at the deadline, so they should sign 2 arms to low cost deals to provide some stability around those wild cards and if we suck next year, just deal them at the deadline. They cannot continue to go into every single season just throwing shit against the wall in april and may to see what sticks. It's ok to have some competency out of the gate with the bullpen. It wont cost much in terms of money or years, and it will possibly prevent the season from going into a tailspin early again. No one is asking to sign 5 relievers, but signing a proven back end arm or 2 middle relievers to low money 1 year deals is necessary.

And i will almost guarantee they dont sign an innings eating arm. They should to add a higher floor with potential injuries, but they wont. We've been saying they need to do this for like 4 years. They have no intention of spending the money necessary to account for injuries that could torpedo a season very quickly. They will just hope it doesnt happen again.

[fish16]

Yeah I wish we were able to have more a breakdown. Not sure if things like that are publicly reported anywhere….doubt it, especially with any figures (management could tout an increase in season tickets without figures).

they are a private business so those numbers would never be publicly reported, and i wouldnt believe any numbers they voluntarily put out anyways.

[lou]

seems pretty obvious to me the future is Edwards at 2b full time, norby should be in LF full time, otto is not a starter but a solid utility guy, and they need full time starters at both left infield positions, though maybe bride can be a stop gap for a year or 2 if he keeps up the way he performed this year. The full time SS of the future is not in the organization. Luzardo would be the obvious one to deal but they would be selling at his lowest value.

They shouldnt be signing any major free agents. Maybe a stop gap 1 year C, but other than that, it should just be 1 year relievers and possibly a backend innings eating starter, but they have already proven time and time again that they have no intention of doing that. They will risk injuries again and just see what happens because sherman is incompetent and has no business owning a professional sports team.

I'd sign 2-3 1 year relievers and see what happens. they cannot continue to do nothing with the bullpen every offseason and then spend the entire first month figuring out what works among 15 arms. They need to have a better plan.

First paragraph - Yes to everything, but Bride is not good (expected slash .225/.306/.338, arm strength 5th so he is a land locked 1B maybe 2B) so he is frankly a stopgap to DDLS (or Ramirez) service time status as a DH/1B and that's it.

Second paragraph - Yes Sherman is incompetent and they should have a bridge catcher to Ramirez/Banfield/Mack. They will need an innings eater if they trade a SP but should be good otherwise. I would bet on Luzardo still being moved personally as they do need a bat.

Third paragraph - This is where you lose me. The Marlins ended with the 2nd best bullpen in baseball last year, and yes Puk, Scott, Hoeing, Brazoban, Chargois, and even some OK Burch Smith innings (collectively, 2.9 WAR from those 6 guys, seriously) contributed to that, but even taking those guys away would just lower the Marlins to the 12th best bullpen as Faucher, Cronin, Bender, Tinoco, and Nardi were excellent (collectively, 5 WAR!!), and past them Baumann, Veneziano, McMillian, Maldonado and Petersen did throw 59 innings and they collectively had .6 WAR in those innings which, is a totally solid RP once aggregated. That's 10 guys popping a 5.6 WAR in just over 300 innings which is in a word, great. There is also Oller on top of that who is miscast as a SP, but I think he can be added to the group as his 1st time through numbers are interesting (9.72 K/9, 3.41 FIP... but xFIP 4.44). I think a max-effort Oller throwing a little harder can be a 2 inning pitcher for sure, but we shall see. The slurve is real if you've ever seen him throw. They should IMO, trade one of the slider right handed guys (Cronin, Tinoco, Maldonado, McMillian) because they have so much bullpen depth in their effort at improving the bat situation. This is objectively good IMO and Bendix gets a lot of credit adding 8 names to this list from July-September.


SP Sandy, Luzardo/FA, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers, Max (Mazur, Bellozo, Fulton, IL-Eury)

RHP Faucher, Bender, Cronin/Tinoco (other traded), Oller, Baumann (McMillian, Maldonado, Petersen)

LHP Nardi, Veneziano (Simpson)


Big picture, if they were to do anything here, it's signing a veteran lefty and then Oller(OOO), Baumann(OOO), Maldonado, or Petersen is on the chopping block for that guy on the 40 man. This could also be a few MiLB veteran lefty signings and they can see their own path here. Maybe I am also a bit too optimistic on someone like Baumann or Petersen and they just keep both of Cronin and Tinoco which is also fine.


The outlier scenario would be a Max bullpen determination this offseason, where then it is getting rid of a slider guy or Petersen, and then needing an innings eater to replace him. Frankly, I wouldn't make that decision with Max opening day and he gets until Eury is back minimium, so I'm opening with the above. Trade Luzardo and Cronin as part of bat packges, sign a veteran innings eater, sign MiLB lefties, and that's all the pitching moves. Absent, they should also extend Cabrera for 5 years.

[rmc523]

Harrison Bader, Mark Canha, James McCann Free Agent signings.

1 year deals, deal them at the deadline.

Sounds like a typical blah/why bother Marlins offseason….

im sure we’ll sign them and they’ll all fall on their faces in typical Marlins fashion too.

[rmc523]

i wonder if the majority of that downturn is just a decrease in season tickets or individual game sales. would love to see the breakdown of season tickets over the years. it feels like the season tickets could account for a lot of the decrease coming off of a playoff season and doing nothing. feels like we have a baked in number of individual tickets sold because of how many other teams fans come to the ballpark over the course of the year between teams like the dodgers, yankees, mets, phillies, red sox, cubs, cardinals, etc.

Yeah I wish we were able to have more a breakdown. Not sure if things like that are publicly reported anywhere….doubt it, especially with any figures (management could tout an increase in season tickets without figures).

[Namaste]

Brazoban doing everything he can to eliminate Arizona

[fish16]

seems pretty obvious to me the future is Edwards at 2b full time, norby should be in LF full time, otto is not a starter but a solid utility guy, and they need full time starters at both left infield positions, though maybe bride can be a stop gap for a year or 2 if he keeps up the way he performed this year. The full time SS of the future is not in the organization. Luzardo would be the obvious one to deal but they would be selling at his lowest value.

They shouldnt be signing any major free agents. Maybe a stop gap 1 year C, but other than that, it should just be 1 year relievers and possibly a backend innings eating starter, but they have already proven time and time again that they have no intention of doing that. They will risk injuries again and just see what happens because sherman is incompetent and has no business owning a professional sports team.

I'd sign 2-3 1 year relievers and see what happens. they cannot continue to do nothing with the bullpen every offseason and then spend the entire first month figuring out what works among 15 arms. They need to have a better plan.

[Namaste]

Edwin Diaz meltdown

[lou]

Do you really think Edwards has this kind of pull inside the organization?

I know new GM and all that, but I'll remind you, this was a man who was killing it in AAA in 2023 and couldn't get called up to play over the likes of Joey Wendle.

No idea - also not my idea someone else mentioned it but I do think it is plausible. Maybe he really wants to stick at SS, and the best thing for Edwards developmentally is seeing how bad it turned out so it is a learning experience for him. For a super analytics based GM, playing him at SS all of September literally makes no sense over Otto who was showcasing exceptional range numbers (and a better arm). So something else is going on here, in that they know what they have with Otto and this is just desperation to see if Edwards clicked at the big league level, or something else like maybe accommodating Edwards' wanting to be a SS because say.... Kim fucked him in 2023 not calling him up. Who knows.


Big picture, I'd love to see this develop in a perfect world:

C - Mack(L), Ramirez(R)
1B - DDLS(R), Martorella(L)/Berry(S)
2B - Edwards(S)
SS - Otto(R), Serna(R)
3B - ______
LF - Norby(R), Berry(S)/Stowers(L)/Marsee(L)
CF - ______, Sanoja(R)/Dane(R)
RF - Sanchez(L) ---------> LaViolette/Cannarella(L) (2025 Top 3 pick)

* Serna plays 50+ games at 2B/3B/LF to spell guys so please don't assume I mean Otto much over 400 PA here, it's a platoon and he just hits righties a little
** I don't think Norby is a 3B
*** I'm just assuming they take the college guy in the draft
****I'm assuming all those 1B work out so this isn't a Burger insult


If SS is good enough there (huge question) which is what this discussion is about, it still primes getting a right handed CF immediately, and any kind of 3B. Say..... Luzardo, Burger, and Cronin to the Red Sox for K. Campbell/Meidroth starts making a lot of sense for everyone, especially if Serna, Norby, and Sanoja all can pitch in at 3B to help. Still might need another bat in the future as luxury upgrades for contending, but you're set up for success now a real plan. And per the Red Sox, the get 3 things they immediately need with years of control, and still can trade a left handed bat for another pitcher and then sign another right handed bat and lefty reliever as they of course, have money.

[Nick]

I'd tend to agree.

Frankly, if he has a .350+ OBP and is a terror on the bases with average defense, he's probably a 2.5+ WAR player at 2B..... and that's not including is he a good defender and/or going to speed his way to a .400+ slugging rate (expected this year - .328 slugging for perspective so close to a 100 point slugging over achievement to what he is actually doing. But that's what comes with the .398 BABIP. For perspective as we use Arraez as the contact comparable, Arraez expected slugging for his career is .420 and actual slugging..... .418 so these things do catch up. Kwan has an expected slugging of .361 for career, and actual .396.... so I think the hope is Edwards is closer to a Kwan slugging performer and is a .280/.350/.375ish base line "over achiever" player with BABIP peaks and valleys). Take that all day. A core building block with that kind of OBP from an up the middle position.

Further, I'm not sure who said it but one of you said maybe they did tell Edwards he just gets SS this year to wow the organization before the 2B move, and the reason Otto hasn't been given "that shot" yet is because they promised Edwards in this 100 loss season, wow us at SS kid. And thus, they honored the promise and played him hard at SS not worrying about the bad defensive results. And now they have the analytics data to tell him, Edwards. We like you but you can't play SS (or CF - arm strength!) for this team. Prep up 2B all winter. This is my hope. And then Otto becomes the "superior range low arm" type SS defender Berti was and is fine as a platoon SS for years who can start against most right handers and gets 400-450 PA just like Berti did. Nothing special, but call it a 1.5 WAR platoon player (he was 2.5 this year*). You can sell me a world where SS concerns are overblown if Otto can do THAT *and* on top (and they'd need this too), Serna is "fine enough" to play 60-70 starts at SS (mostly against lefties) and isn't atrocious defensively. Where now, SS can actually be ignored for the time being in this unspectacular but totally fine platoon and the heaviest investment comes for a right handed CF and they blow it out for that player immediately. Then see how Norby does at 3B in 2025 and who they get in the 2025 draft as that does seem impactful for making a long term decision, and can do the 2nd big bat move July 2025. So if anyone sees a new and genuine scouting report on Serna defensively at SS as he did play there a bit (986 innings in minors!), would love to see it as FG/Pipeline, and everyone else are all down on the defense but maybe he is improving. I think Otto not at SS is a missed opportunity to see what he would do, but optimistically they already know and this was just accommodating Edwards as a player which theoretically improves moral for him.

Do you really think Edwards has this kind of pull inside the organization?

I know new GM and all that, but I'll remind you, this was a man who was killing it in AAA in 2023 and couldn't get called up to play over the likes of Joey Wendle.

[lou]

To add to Xavier’s struggles at SS……..it’s not like he was thrown into a position he’s never played either.

He’s been a SS his entire life. He’s going to be a really good 2B.

I'd tend to agree.

Frankly, if he has a .350+ OBP and is a terror on the bases with average defense, he's probably a 2.5+ WAR player at 2B..... and that's not including is he a good defender and/or going to speed his way to a .400+ slugging rate (expected this year - .328 slugging for perspective so close to a 100 point slugging over achievement to what he is actually doing. But that's what comes with the .398 BABIP. For perspective as we use Arraez as the contact comparable, Arraez expected slugging for his career is .420 and actual slugging..... .418 so these things do catch up. Kwan has an expected slugging of .361 for career, and actual .396.... so I think the hope is Edwards is closer to a Kwan slugging performer and is a .280/.350/.375ish base line "over achiever" player with BABIP peaks and valleys). Take that all day. A core building block with that kind of OBP from an up the middle position.

Further, I'm not sure who said it but one of you said maybe they did tell Edwards he just gets SS this year to wow the organization before the 2B move, and the reason Otto hasn't been given "that shot" yet is because they promised Edwards in this 100 loss season, wow us at SS kid. And thus, they honored the promise and played him hard at SS not worrying about the bad defensive results. And now they have the analytics data to tell him, Edwards. We like you but you can't play SS (or CF - arm strength!) for this team. Prep up 2B all winter. This is my hope. And then Otto becomes the "superior range low arm" type SS defender Berti was and is fine as a platoon SS for years who can start against most right handers and gets 400-450 PA just like Berti did. Nothing special, but call it a 1.5 WAR platoon player (he was 2.5 this year*). You can sell me a world where SS concerns are overblown if Otto can do THAT *and* on top (and they'd need this too), Serna is "fine enough" to play 60-70 starts at SS (mostly against lefties) and isn't atrocious defensively. Where now, SS can actually be ignored for the time being in this unspectacular but totally fine platoon and the heaviest investment comes for a right handed CF and they blow it out for that player immediately. Then see how Norby does at 3B in 2025 and who they get in the 2025 draft as that does seem impactful for making a long term decision, and can do the 2nd big bat move July 2025. So if anyone sees a new and genuine scouting report on Serna defensively at SS as he did play there a bit (986 innings in minors!), would love to see it as FG/Pipeline, and everyone else are all down on the defense but maybe he is improving. I think Otto not at SS is a missed opportunity to see what he would do, but optimistically they already know and this was just accommodating Edwards as a player which theoretically improves moral for him.

[Namaste]

To add to Xavier’s struggles at SS……..it’s not like he was thrown into a position he’s never played either.

He’s been a SS his entire life. He’s going to be a really good 2B.

[lou]

Conine is 6 months older than Stowers. They were both 2nd round picks.

I literally don't care which one they keep, I think they have room for 1 on the 40 man so whoever they think whiffs less is the keep. I think that is probably Stowers, but wouldn't argue it's a toss up as neither showed a lot.

If they want to keep both, they have to kick someone like Bride (I would be OK with that TBH as there is more upside with Stowers or Conine among all players who likely don't make it) or Dane (I wouldn't do that, I'd keep Dane) off the 40 man.