2024 Game Thread

[Namaste]

The Twins and Marlins went 10 for 46 with RISP. That’s wild. Great game, good win. Watch the Derek Hill catch if you can

[Namaste]

Derek Hill made another all world catch tonight.

Hell of a ballgame, too. 4 hours long.

[fish16]

the tigers of this year feel a lot like the marlins of last year. out of their top 10 hitters with the most AB's this year, only 2 have an OPS above .692, Riley greene at .833 and Vierling at .736. Skubal is obviously the cy young but nothing else in their pitching staff is all that crazy. their 2dn best pitcher by WAR has been a dodger for 2 months. Somehow their expected W/L is exactly what it was thus far this year. pretty crazy.

[lou]

With last night’s loss, the Marlins clinched having the best odds in the draft lottery along with the Rockies. I mentioned this point earlier in the year, but usually it’s the bottom 3 teams, but there’s a caveat to a small market team being down there for so many years that they are bumped down, and that’s the case for the White Sox this year. Because it’s the Marlins, I’m sure they’ll drop down significantly during the lottery, but for now we can hope (and also hope they don’t fuck the pick up).

Also - I believe the Athletics are banned along with the White Sox because of their suckitude?


They just need a top 3 pick - Holliday, LaViolette, Cannarella. Any will do from what I am seeing. It starts getting "high schooly" and "SP based" after this, versus the clear needs of a Holliday (3B) even if a high schooler, and two college center fielders (even if left handed). Marlins need this much more than the Rockies who have an assortment of long term bats (N. Jones, Toglia, Amador, Tovar, Doyle, Condon, Veen, Y. Fernandez, and Bryant and McMahon signed for a bit).

I found an odds table and it would come out as 65.4% chance 1-2-3 (23.5%-21.9%-20%). So they'll probably be OK and get one of the top 3 picks, but we'll see. Optimistically they don't get fucked here as those two center fielders are screaming as ideal if fast movers like Langford.

[sports24/7]

We signed 18-year old Cuban SS Luis Leon for $1.5 Mil.

Apparently they used money from the current IFA period to sign him, so they’ll still have their full allotment for the upcoming group, where they’re expected to sign one of the top prospects in Venezuelan SS Andrew Salas.

[Nick]

We signed 18-year old Cuban SS Luis Leon for $1.5 Mil.

[sports24/7]

With last night’s loss, the Marlins clinched having the best odds in the draft lottery along with the Rockies. I mentioned this point earlier in the year, but usually it’s the bottom 3 teams, but there’s a caveat to a small market team being down there for so many years that they are bumped down, and that’s the case for the White Sox this year. Because it’s the Marlins, I’m sure they’ll drop down significantly during the lottery, but for now we can hope (and also hope they don’t fuck the pick up).

[lou]

More importantly, Passan talking about the Pirates here but how Pat McAfee physically reacts is exactly how I feel - https://x.com/PatMcAfeeShow/status/1838981251019272496

So much yes. Way to go Jeff.

[lou]

Well since nothing is going on, random notes:


Bullpen (and how it impacts the offseason):

Baumann with the Marlins has a 2.85 xFIP, 12+ K/9. SSS and hasn't been great on his traveling around teams this team, but he mjght be better than we all think he is. His out pitch is a knuckle curve, which is unique for the right hander pen guys (Bender - Sweeper, Oller - Slurve, Petersen and Faucher a Cutter (but Faucher also throws a curve), Bellozo a Sweeper/Cutter and more, .... and Tinoco, Cronin, McMillian, and Maldonado all slider dependent). If we're viewing bullpen repertoire, it makes some sense to see if Baumann is a Bendix special and the Marlins pitching program fixes him as he has high velocity and a good 2nd pitch. It is a classic Rays kind of arm they figure out. Practically, I kind of like the idea of starting off with Faucher (cutter), Bender (sweeper), "Slider guy", Oller (slurve), and Baumann (knuckle curve) as the right handed pen next year as it's different looks, and they have options on Maldonado, Petersen, Bellozo, and Cronin/McMillian to keep them in AAA until someone gets hurt. Effectively, they probably can trade a slider reliever (Cronin or Tinoco presumably, as McMillian has the highest upside, and Maldonado isn't proven yet, so Cronin as he's younger and Tinoco is OOO even if pitching well). I think I'd aim for this right now:

Trade - Cronin. Always be trading relievers

MLB SP - Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Max, Weathers
MLB RHP RP - Faucher, Bender, Tinoco, Oller, Baumann
MLB LHP - Nardi, Veneziano

And that’s a bullpen of… Cutter, Sweeper, Slider, Slurve, and Knuckle Curves from the right handers, and slider dependent lefties but that’s just what they have. A very nice variety to keep teams off balance. Oller and Veneziano can both throw 2-3 innings so that works for longmen on each side.

Rest of 40 man:

AAA/AA/IL SP - Eury, Bellozo, Mazur, Fulton
AAA RHP RP - McMillian, Maldonado, Petersen
AAA LHP RP - Simpson

I think this group would collectively get over 300 IP (plus Snelling, and Monteverde or Pushard types who rise) so whoever gets to the top here will get theirs in innings for sure. That sounds like a lot, but if Eury/Snelling/Mazur get 20+ starts, Bellozo another 10, and McMillian, Maldonado, and Petersen combine for 100+ innings, it really chunks together close to that number very fast. To note, Petersen also has huge velocity so I think especially with an option and off a good year in AAA, he falls into a project pitcher keep unless something better appears on waivers


To Bendix's credit, it's kind of crazy he has shipped out Puk, Scott, Brazoban, Hoeing, and Chargois, and let's say he ships out Cronin too, and that's kind of like a full above average bullpen going out, and through a series of waiver claims, trading for Faucher, and inheriting Bender and Nardi, he's moslty rebuilt the pen on the fly. At minimum, Tinoco, McMillian, and Veneziano are probably pretty solid even if Oller, Baumann, Bellozo, and Petersen all end up into the "churnable last guys" on 40 bucket. The only thing missing is 1 ace reliever (i.e. Puk and pray for DDLS contact rates), and McMillian is the only shot for one of them if he finds control..... But maybe Max does end up being moved here as a FB/Slider closer and thats that with the best possible 5some being Max, McMillian, Faucher, Bender, and Baumann/Oller/Petersen.

The very big picture point is, they probably have every arm they need (assuming healthy to open year besides Eury) and can move a reliever if they feel confident over these waiver claims or finding new ones as boy did they churn some arms here. Or, if Luzardo is moved, sign a FA SP and swap him into his spot and that's that. That's probably the best idea - combine Luzardo and Cronin and say Noble, Serna/Edwards, and a few FV40 guys a long time away and get two major young bats with them. That's a lot of guys.


Defense

Norby - 41st percentile arm strength, and fielding range is trending down. This is probably a half year or less experiment next year before the inevitable move to LF. But for purposes of do they need a 3B for next year, this is probably not a big expenditure and let Norby surprise.

Bride - 2nd percentile arm strength. He isn't a 3B. He sticks until DDLS is called up and that's that.

Edwards - He's down to 2nd percentile range at SS, and a 6th percentile defender. 20th arm strength

Otto - 97th percentile range at 2B, 36th percentile arm strength. I mean come on Marlins. It's time to move Edwards.


Bat 40


C Fortes, Ramirez, Banfield
1B/DH Burger, Bride(OOO), DDLS
2B Edwards, Otto(OOO), Serna
SS _____
3B Norby, Pauley
LF Stowers, Hill(OOO)
CF ____, Sanoja, Mesa Jr.
RF Sanchez, Dane
=19

*I have them keeping 21 pitchers above, but my idea now is they sign a veteran catcher to platoon with Fortes to a MiLB deal and when Eury is IL'd they are moved up. A strategy to keep 1 more pitcher for the time being.

This needs a lot of work. As mentioned, I'd move all of Luzardo, Cronin, Noble, Serna/Edwards, and a few FV40 games and aim to get a SS and CF, sign that veteran catcher as mentioned above, and then with Serna/Edwards spot, get a cheap veteran 3B (Moncada? J. Davis?). The rest of the money replaces Luzardo.

So opening day is something like this:

C Fortes, New Veteran catcher (Cheap)
1B/DH Burger, Bride
2B Edwards,
SS Guy for Luzardo, Otto
3B Norby, Veteran 3B (cheap)
LF Stowers/Dane, Hill
CF Guy for Noble/Serna
RF Sanchez

Ramirez, DDLS, the other of Stowers/Dane, and Sanoja are breathing down the catchers, Bride, and Hill's necks who all effectively get 1-3 months before being replaced. Of course they could sign a legitimate FA too and not make so many trades, but it is what it is.



This is getting closer ultimately to being good. I'd say it is SP health, and adding 2 great and 2 good platoon players away from being a very viable team, and those are all bats. Prior to 2024, I thought they needed 6-7 guys so I suppose this is progress as it's less guys, and the farm system is 2-3x better than it was with an incoming top 3 pick and presumably Salas, who Pipeline did an update as the # 4 overall international guy and they rate a FV55.... which according to pipeline means, he's the 2nd or 3rd best player in the Marlins system after White, and Noble is a toss up (https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2025/i...4xNzIwODA2MTA0).


So spend some money Bruce, assuming all the SP health reports are good

[fish16]

DDLS hit his 40th hr and it went 476 feet.

[fish16]

I’d rather be the Brewers than the Marlins I’ll give you that. But they’re always the least feared team (or close to it) in the playoffs.

last 3 words- in the playoffs. just gotta get to the playoffs and see what happens and they do it consistently with a low payroll. dodgers have also lost in the first round each of the last 2 years. shit happens. we talk up the rays as well and they've been swept each of the last 2 years as well. granted, their best player missed the end of the year because they were a pedophile.

[Namaste]

I’d rather be the Brewers than the Marlins I’ll give you that. But they’re always the least feared team (or close to it) in the playoffs.

[fish16]

Yeah both Central divisions are known for being real tough

ya, they are just lucking themselves into the playoffs consistently. over the last 10 years the NL Central win percentage is .502, 3rd toughest behind the AL East and NL West. The NL East is 5th at .492, and the AL Central is dead last at .476.

Every division has bad teams. The brewers have been one of the best teams in baseball with bottom 10 payrolls for a while.

[Namaste]

Yeah both Central divisions are known for being real tough

[fish16]

the brewers have made the playoffs 5 out of the last 6 years and won 89 or more games 4 out of the last full 5 seasons on a mid level payroll. They lost to the NL champion in 2018, the world series champion in 2019, the world series champion in 2020, the world series champion in 2021, missed the playoffs in 2022 despite winning more games than we did when we made the playoffs last year, and then lost to the nl champion last year. We have made the playoffs in a legitimate season 1 time in 21 years. We havent won a playoff game with an attendance higher than 0 in 21 years. the playoffs in baseball are a crapshoot, they consistently get a mid level payroll to the playoffs. our best seasons since 2010 would be their worst season in 7 years. they are an incredibly well run team. they have the 24th highest opening day payroll this year, 20th last year,. 17th in 2022, 21st in 2021, 23rd in 2020, 16th in 2019, and 26th in 2018. Never had a higher opening day payroll than 108 million.

They play in a division with a cardinals team that has been under .500 once before this year since 1999, and the cubs who consistently have one of the highest payrolls in baseball and had the best core in baseball for the last half of the 2010's. It's like saying the braves play in a weak division because the division has the marlins and nationals.